Ben Bailey
@benfb.bsky.social
Sr. Data Engineer at Workleap // I write about baseball at cubofcoffee.com and other things at benbailey.me // Hampshire College alumn
Feels like a lot of what determines the Cubs’ potential second starting pitcher addition is which teams like Owen Caissie the most. Pirates (Ashcraft, Oviedo)? Marlins (Cabrera, Snelling)? Royals (Bubic)? Rays (Baz, Rasmussen)? Angels, even?
November 18, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Feels like a lot of what determines the Cubs’ potential second starting pitcher addition is which teams like Owen Caissie the most. Pirates (Ashcraft, Oviedo)? Marlins (Cabrera, Snelling)? Royals (Bubic)? Rays (Baz, Rasmussen)? Angels, even?
If Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty are hurt or just enjoying their current teams, that's one thing, but if they think they couldn't beat their current 1 year deals on the open market the Cubs surely won't be offering Shōta Imanaga the qualifying offer.
November 5, 2025 at 3:20 AM
If Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty are hurt or just enjoying their current teams, that's one thing, but if they think they couldn't beat their current 1 year deals on the open market the Cubs surely won't be offering Shōta Imanaga the qualifying offer.
Where’s Aaron Ashby when you need him?
October 18, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Where’s Aaron Ashby when you need him?
That double (117.3 MPH) was the hardest-hit ball of Seiya Suzuki's career. His previous hardest was this home run against the Reds in May (116.2 MPH) sporty-clips.mlb.com/YVkyVmVfWGw0...
sporty-clips.mlb.com
October 8, 2025 at 10:21 PM
That double (117.3 MPH) was the hardest-hit ball of Seiya Suzuki's career. His previous hardest was this home run against the Reds in May (116.2 MPH) sporty-clips.mlb.com/YVkyVmVfWGw0...
I never expected Michael Busch to be this good
October 8, 2025 at 9:43 PM
I never expected Michael Busch to be this good
With the Brewers set to use Aaron Ashby as an opener, I wouldn't be against the Cubs' having Turner lead off. Because the Cubs are the away team, he could take 1 PA without needing to play the field. You're locking yourself in to a Koenig/Busch or Koenig/PCA matchup later but it could be worth it.
October 5, 2025 at 8:09 PM
With the Brewers set to use Aaron Ashby as an opener, I wouldn't be against the Cubs' having Turner lead off. Because the Cubs are the away team, he could take 1 PA without needing to play the field. You're locking yourself in to a Koenig/Busch or Koenig/PCA matchup later but it could be worth it.
Somehow, the Cubs have the second highest wRC+ in the playoffs
October 3, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Somehow, the Cubs have the second highest wRC+ in the playoffs
Reposted by Ben Bailey
Cubs relievers in the Wild Card series against the Padres (Game 2 includes opener Kittredge instead of bulk guy Imanaga)
14.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
14.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
October 3, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Cubs relievers in the Wild Card series against the Padres (Game 2 includes opener Kittredge instead of bulk guy Imanaga)
14.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
14.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
The Cubs and Padres bullpens each allowed 2 runs this series
Lots of talk about how good the Padres bullpen is (it’s very good). The Cubs’ pen has quietly been right there
Cubs’ rank in stats for pitchers on the active roster as relievers:
ERA: 1st (Padres: 6th)
xERA: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
FIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
xFIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
K-BB%: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)…
Cubs’ rank in stats for pitchers on the active roster as relievers:
ERA: 1st (Padres: 6th)
xERA: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
FIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
xFIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
K-BB%: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)…
October 3, 2025 at 12:20 AM
The Cubs and Padres bullpens each allowed 2 runs this series
Does the Trajekt machine go up to 104? Asking for 9 friends
October 2, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Does the Trajekt machine go up to 104? Asking for 9 friends
See, Jed did trade for a playoff starter!
Righty reliever Andrew Kittredge will start Game 2 for the Cubs tomorrow, team announces.
September 30, 2025 at 10:34 PM
See, Jed did trade for a playoff starter!
For better or worse, one more time
Some reminders as we go into September/the playoffs:
1. There is no one way teams play or one stat that predicts which teams do well in the playoffs
1. There is no one way teams play or one stat that predicts which teams do well in the playoffs
Yes, the Playoffs Are Still a Crapshoot
Well, unless you’re playing the Twins.
blogs.fangraphs.com
September 29, 2025 at 10:24 PM
For better or worse, one more time
Lots of talk about how good the Padres bullpen is (it’s very good). The Cubs’ pen has quietly been right there
Cubs’ rank in stats for pitchers on the active roster as relievers:
ERA: 1st (Padres: 6th)
xERA: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
FIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
xFIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
K-BB%: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)…
Cubs’ rank in stats for pitchers on the active roster as relievers:
ERA: 1st (Padres: 6th)
xERA: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
FIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
xFIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
K-BB%: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)…
September 29, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Lots of talk about how good the Padres bullpen is (it’s very good). The Cubs’ pen has quietly been right there
Cubs’ rank in stats for pitchers on the active roster as relievers:
ERA: 1st (Padres: 6th)
xERA: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
FIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
xFIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
K-BB%: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)…
Cubs’ rank in stats for pitchers on the active roster as relievers:
ERA: 1st (Padres: 6th)
xERA: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
FIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
xFIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
K-BB%: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)…
You can't let Colin Rea exceed his career high in strikeouts by 2 against you in a playoff race, those are the rules
September 19, 2025 at 12:53 AM
You can't let Colin Rea exceed his career high in strikeouts by 2 against you in a playoff race, those are the rules
@mikepetriello.bsky.social Not sure where to direct this, but it seems like Porter Hodge has thrown a third pitch in his last few outings which is getting called as an 86-88 MPH fastball. Just in case the pitch classification gods have not noticed yet!
September 16, 2025 at 1:29 AM
@mikepetriello.bsky.social Not sure where to direct this, but it seems like Porter Hodge has thrown a third pitch in his last few outings which is getting called as an 86-88 MPH fastball. Just in case the pitch classification gods have not noticed yet!
Kittredge with the Cubs: 3.06 ERA, 1.75 xERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.81 xFIP, 36.4% K%, 4.5% BB%
September 15, 2025 at 3:52 AM
Kittredge with the Cubs: 3.06 ERA, 1.75 xERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.81 xFIP, 36.4% K%, 4.5% BB%
After two very impressive games, Nico Hoerner is up to a 111 wRC+, and he’ll be averaging more than 4 wins per season. Still feels like he’s underrated.
September 12, 2025 at 8:08 PM
After two very impressive games, Nico Hoerner is up to a 111 wRC+, and he’ll be averaging more than 4 wins per season. Still feels like he’s underrated.
Baseball is funny because you play 162 games and then your season can depend on whether or not Drew Pomeranz can get Ramón Laureano out.
September 12, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Baseball is funny because you play 162 games and then your season can depend on whether or not Drew Pomeranz can get Ramón Laureano out.
@mikepetriello.bsky.social Not sure if you’re still doing defense threads, but any idea why OAA and DRS have such a big discrepancy with Matt Shaw? I feel like a lot of his better plays are related to his hands (tricky hops) and his mislays or more range-based which might explain it but anecdotal
September 10, 2025 at 8:59 PM
@mikepetriello.bsky.social Not sure if you’re still doing defense threads, but any idea why OAA and DRS have such a big discrepancy with Matt Shaw? I feel like a lot of his better plays are related to his hands (tricky hops) and his mislays or more range-based which might explain it but anecdotal
Reposted by Ben Bailey
2. September performance and being hot going into the playoffs don’t tell you more than regular season record blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinal...
August 22, 2025 at 4:42 AM
2. September performance and being hot going into the playoffs don’t tell you more than regular season record blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinal...
Drew Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar were both feeling it tonight
September 3, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Drew Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar were both feeling it tonight
Kyle Hendricks is still showing up at the top of good leaderboards
Free to read at Baseball Prospectus:
Adversarial Pitch Location
The repeatable skill of targeting a pitch where specific batters most dislike seeing it.
www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
Adversarial Pitch Location
The repeatable skill of targeting a pitch where specific batters most dislike seeing it.
www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
Adversarial Pitch Location | Baseball Prospectus
The next step in understanding pitch location decisions.
www.baseballprospectus.com
August 22, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Kyle Hendricks is still showing up at the top of good leaderboards
Some reminders as we go into September/the playoffs:
1. There is no one way teams play or one stat that predicts which teams do well in the playoffs
1. There is no one way teams play or one stat that predicts which teams do well in the playoffs
Yes, the Playoffs Are Still a Crapshoot
Well, unless you’re playing the Twins.
blogs.fangraphs.com
August 22, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Some reminders as we go into September/the playoffs:
1. There is no one way teams play or one stat that predicts which teams do well in the playoffs
1. There is no one way teams play or one stat that predicts which teams do well in the playoffs
Here’s a “fun” fact: Seiya Suzuki leads the league in barrels hit for outs this year at 25 (41% of his barrels). That’s five more than the next hitters. Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson are both top 15 in “barrel-outs” this year as well. The Cubs as a team lead the league in barrel-outs by 3.
August 21, 2025 at 4:48 AM
Here’s a “fun” fact: Seiya Suzuki leads the league in barrels hit for outs this year at 25 (41% of his barrels). That’s five more than the next hitters. Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson are both top 15 in “barrel-outs” this year as well. The Cubs as a team lead the league in barrel-outs by 3.