Ben Bailey
@benfb.bsky.social
Sr. Data Engineer at Workleap // I write about baseball at cubofcoffee.com and other things at benbailey.me // Hampshire College alumn
Drew Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar were both feeling it tonight
September 3, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Drew Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar were both feeling it tonight
2. September performance and being hot going into the playoffs don’t tell you more than regular season record blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinal...
August 22, 2025 at 4:42 AM
2. September performance and being hot going into the playoffs don’t tell you more than regular season record blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinal...
Here’s a “fun” fact: Seiya Suzuki leads the league in barrels hit for outs this year at 25 (41% of his barrels). That’s five more than the next hitters. Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson are both top 15 in “barrel-outs” this year as well. The Cubs as a team lead the league in barrel-outs by 3.
August 21, 2025 at 4:48 AM
Here’s a “fun” fact: Seiya Suzuki leads the league in barrels hit for outs this year at 25 (41% of his barrels). That’s five more than the next hitters. Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson are both top 15 in “barrel-outs” this year as well. The Cubs as a team lead the league in barrel-outs by 3.
a ton of cut, which is clearly a feature the Cubs look for. Acquiring Coulombe would give them 7 of the top 15 in relative 4S cut this year (and Matt Festa was in the org briefly over the winter). Coulombe is owed ~$1M the rest of the year, so money shouldn't be an issue.
July 27, 2025 at 10:31 PM
a ton of cut, which is clearly a feature the Cubs look for. Acquiring Coulombe would give them 7 of the top 15 in relative 4S cut this year (and Matt Festa was in the org briefly over the winter). Coulombe is owed ~$1M the rest of the year, so money shouldn't be an issue.
I've mentioned Michael Soroka a couple times as a good candidate for a SP to get you to October and then move to the bullpen for the playoffs. Unfortunately, his FB velo has now been down 2+ MPH 3 of the last 4 starts, including today. Still intriguing as a reliever, but seems to be wearing down
July 23, 2025 at 4:49 PM
I've mentioned Michael Soroka a couple times as a good candidate for a SP to get you to October and then move to the bullpen for the playoffs. Unfortunately, his FB velo has now been down 2+ MPH 3 of the last 4 starts, including today. Still intriguing as a reliever, but seems to be wearing down
Joe Ryan wins the most amped award so far tonight
July 16, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Joe Ryan wins the most amped award so far tonight
The slider is a really weird pitch (deathball-ish in movement), and the cutter has a ton of cut to it for its velocity. And, since it's the Cubs, his fastball has a lot of natural cut to it as well. In a starting role, I think you're looking for 4-5 innings of staying off the barrel.
July 5, 2025 at 5:47 PM
The slider is a really weird pitch (deathball-ish in movement), and the cutter has a ton of cut to it for its velocity. And, since it's the Cubs, his fastball has a lot of natural cut to it as well. In a starting role, I think you're looking for 4-5 innings of staying off the barrel.
Chris Flexen won't strike guys out, but his hard contact suppression has been real this year. I'm guessing this pitch mix from his arm angle is why. It will be important to see how the stuff holds up later in games if he's going to make starts, but he's been surprisingly good in a relief role.
July 5, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Chris Flexen won't strike guys out, but his hard contact suppression has been real this year. I'm guessing this pitch mix from his arm angle is why. It will be important to see how the stuff holds up later in games if he's going to make starts, but he's been surprisingly good in a relief role.
Wouldn't have expected there to be a big change with how recently he signed, but nothing major different with Cabrera in his first outing with the Cubs. More splitter compared to his average but I'm guessing that's because he faced some righties. Interesting to have a 5-pitch mix as a reliever.
May 30, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Wouldn't have expected there to be a big change with how recently he signed, but nothing major different with Cabrera in his first outing with the Cubs. More splitter compared to his average but I'm guessing that's because he faced some righties. Interesting to have a 5-pitch mix as a reliever.
The Cubs' base stealing feels like it's taken a hit recently--they're also facing the three best throwing catchers this year in consecutive series
May 7, 2025 at 1:10 AM
The Cubs' base stealing feels like it's taken a hit recently--they're also facing the three best throwing catchers this year in consecutive series
The best sluggers in baseball
April 13, 2025 at 3:52 AM
The best sluggers in baseball
Something to watch as the Cubs play the Dodgers—they have yet to throw out a base stealer this year. We saw how the Cubs ran on the Rangers this week, and they may have to do similar to win in LA this weekend.
April 11, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Something to watch as the Cubs play the Dodgers—they have yet to throw out a base stealer this year. We saw how the Cubs ran on the Rangers this week, and they may have to do similar to win in LA this weekend.
And, if you're curious, the wRC+ change for all Cubs whose wRC+ changed in the last day after @dszymborski.fangraphs.com's ZiPS update
March 27, 2025 at 2:06 AM
And, if you're curious, the wRC+ change for all Cubs whose wRC+ changed in the last day after @dszymborski.fangraphs.com's ZiPS update
Meaningless predictions here before stateside opening day
March 27, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Meaningless predictions here before stateside opening day
Very cool to see Miguel Amaya's stance change from the first half to the second half on the new Baseball Savant batting stance visuals. We knew he reduced his leg kick, but now we can visualize it.
March 25, 2025 at 2:45 AM
Very cool to see Miguel Amaya's stance change from the first half to the second half on the new Baseball Savant batting stance visuals. We knew he reduced his leg kick, but now we can visualize it.
This isn't the best way to look at it, but here is a comparison of Gage Workman and Vidal Bruján across various projection systems, with the presented stat the adjusted offensive stat of choice (wRC+ for all the rest but DRC+ for PECOTA).
February 22, 2025 at 7:02 PM
This isn't the best way to look at it, but here is a comparison of Gage Workman and Vidal Bruján across various projection systems, with the presented stat the adjusted offensive stat of choice (wRC+ for all the rest but DRC+ for PECOTA).
Not surprised the Cubs didn't match 40M AAV for Bregman no matter how short the term. With Pivetta coming off the board the Cubs have budget for any or multiple remaining FAs. Combined with this from the Athletic, I wonder if Robertson and Turner are on the table. www.nytimes.com/athletic/613...
February 13, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Not surprised the Cubs didn't match 40M AAV for Bregman no matter how short the term. With Pivetta coming off the board the Cubs have budget for any or multiple remaining FAs. Combined with this from the Athletic, I wonder if Robertson and Turner are on the table. www.nytimes.com/athletic/613...
Here are the projections available on @fangraphs.com for Mark Canha and Justin Turner. WAR isn't worth looking at here, but interesting to see that ZiPS loves Turner compared to OOPSY and there's a smaller spread on Canha.
February 11, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Here are the projections available on @fangraphs.com for Mark Canha and Justin Turner. WAR isn't worth looking at here, but interesting to see that ZiPS loves Turner compared to OOPSY and there's a smaller spread on Canha.
Here's something interesting I found when looking at the Cubs' pitching staff: their ground ball rate ranked 17th, which was the first time they've been below average since 2014. They long prioritized pitchers who got ground balls, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. (1/1)
February 1, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Here's something interesting I found when looking at the Cubs' pitching staff: their ground ball rate ranked 17th, which was the first time they've been below average since 2014. They long prioritized pitchers who got ground balls, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. (1/1)
It really is wild that David Robertson hasn’t lost any velocity at age 39.
January 24, 2025 at 10:45 PM
It really is wild that David Robertson hasn’t lost any velocity at age 39.
Beggars can't be choosers, but I'd be a little hesitant to give Carlos Estévez closer money. He had the best ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP of his career last year, but I can't entirely figure out why. He didn't get much chase, and still got hit hard while not getting many whiffs.
January 21, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Beggars can't be choosers, but I'd be a little hesitant to give Carlos Estévez closer money. He had the best ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP of his career last year, but I can't entirely figure out why. He didn't get much chase, and still got hit hard while not getting many whiffs.
There's been a lot of talk about how Isaac Paredes' numbers tanked at Wrigley and it wasn't a good park for him, and that might be true...but it wasn't because his fly balls weren't going out like they were in Tampa. He had one homer at Wrigley as a Cub and would've had one at the Trop.
December 20, 2024 at 3:02 AM
There's been a lot of talk about how Isaac Paredes' numbers tanked at Wrigley and it wasn't a good park for him, and that might be true...but it wasn't because his fly balls weren't going out like they were in Tampa. He had one homer at Wrigley as a Cub and would've had one at the Trop.
A couple of other high upside arms that might not cost much in trade:
- Reid Detmers (unlikely to be available, but high K upside)
- Edward Cabrera (out of options, all Ks and BBs, could relieve)
More expensive options: Mitch Keller, Luis Castillo (both unlikely)
Dream candidate: Pablo López
- Reid Detmers (unlikely to be available, but high K upside)
- Edward Cabrera (out of options, all Ks and BBs, could relieve)
More expensive options: Mitch Keller, Luis Castillo (both unlikely)
Dream candidate: Pablo López
December 19, 2024 at 3:29 AM
A couple of other high upside arms that might not cost much in trade:
- Reid Detmers (unlikely to be available, but high K upside)
- Edward Cabrera (out of options, all Ks and BBs, could relieve)
More expensive options: Mitch Keller, Luis Castillo (both unlikely)
Dream candidate: Pablo López
- Reid Detmers (unlikely to be available, but high K upside)
- Edward Cabrera (out of options, all Ks and BBs, could relieve)
More expensive options: Mitch Keller, Luis Castillo (both unlikely)
Dream candidate: Pablo López
Here's something fun: Kyle Tucker is the third best left-on-left hitter in baseball since 2021 (min. 500 PA). He's 21st in the league against lefties among all hitters and 10th against righties.
December 18, 2024 at 2:39 AM
Here's something fun: Kyle Tucker is the third best left-on-left hitter in baseball since 2021 (min. 500 PA). He's 21st in the league against lefties among all hitters and 10th against righties.