Ben Bailey
@benfb.bsky.social
Sr. Data Engineer at Workleap // I write about baseball at cubofcoffee.com and other things at benbailey.me // Hampshire College alumn
Kyle Tucker is an excellent baseball player and fixes the Dodgers' biggest weakness, while being one of the less pleasant to watch great players I've seen
January 16, 2026 at 3:06 AM
Kyle Tucker is an excellent baseball player and fixes the Dodgers' biggest weakness, while being one of the less pleasant to watch great players I've seen
Probably wishful thinking, but with the Red Sox signing a starter and having a franchise record luxury tax payroll, I wonder if they might look more for a pre-arb bat than a later-arb bat like Donovan or Paredes (or Hoerner). Wonder if a framework built around Early for Shaw makes some sense…
January 14, 2026 at 10:49 PM
Probably wishful thinking, but with the Red Sox signing a starter and having a franchise record luxury tax payroll, I wonder if they might look more for a pre-arb bat than a later-arb bat like Donovan or Paredes (or Hoerner). Wonder if a framework built around Early for Shaw makes some sense…
Tentatively, vs. R:
1B Busch
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
CF Crow-Armstrong
2B Hoerner
DH Ballesteros
C Kelly
SS Swanson
(Wouldn’t be surprised if PCA and Ballesteros swap)
Vs. L:
2B Hoerner
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
1B Busch/Austin
C Kelly
CF Crow-Armstrong
DH Austin/Shaw
SS Swanson
1B Busch
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
CF Crow-Armstrong
2B Hoerner
DH Ballesteros
C Kelly
SS Swanson
(Wouldn’t be surprised if PCA and Ballesteros swap)
Vs. L:
2B Hoerner
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
1B Busch/Austin
C Kelly
CF Crow-Armstrong
DH Austin/Shaw
SS Swanson
January 14, 2026 at 5:40 AM
Tentatively, vs. R:
1B Busch
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
CF Crow-Armstrong
2B Hoerner
DH Ballesteros
C Kelly
SS Swanson
(Wouldn’t be surprised if PCA and Ballesteros swap)
Vs. L:
2B Hoerner
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
1B Busch/Austin
C Kelly
CF Crow-Armstrong
DH Austin/Shaw
SS Swanson
1B Busch
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
CF Crow-Armstrong
2B Hoerner
DH Ballesteros
C Kelly
SS Swanson
(Wouldn’t be surprised if PCA and Ballesteros swap)
Vs. L:
2B Hoerner
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
1B Busch/Austin
C Kelly
CF Crow-Armstrong
DH Austin/Shaw
SS Swanson
A little surprised that we got a Passan tweet that mentioned two possibilities of moves (and not a done deal) and neither has happened yet.
January 13, 2026 at 10:03 PM
A little surprised that we got a Passan tweet that mentioned two possibilities of moves (and not a done deal) and neither has happened yet.
Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bregman deal is that the Cubs finally were willing to include deferrals again
January 11, 2026 at 6:13 AM
Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bregman deal is that the Cubs finally were willing to include deferrals again
Might not age well, but hey, about time
The Cubs have reached an agreement with free-agent 3B Alex Bregman, sources tell MLB.com. Per MLB.com's @feinsand.bsky.social, deal is 5 years, $175M with no opt-outs and a full no-trade clause.
January 11, 2026 at 3:51 AM
Might not age well, but hey, about time
Some great discussion from Jordan and Lance on Cabrera’s arsenal here. Can’t wait to see what the Cubs do with it
NEW POD
Jack Harris makes his Bar-B-Cast debut as guest co-host!
- where the Dodgers fit in the current top free agent hitter stand-off
- Tarik Skubal vs. DET in arb = #ScoBoScoBo update
- Good/Bad/Uggla
plus: @lancebroz.bsky.social on Edward Cabrera, Owen Caissie, and COL's pitching future 👀
Jack Harris makes his Bar-B-Cast debut as guest co-host!
- where the Dodgers fit in the current top free agent hitter stand-off
- Tarik Skubal vs. DET in arb = #ScoBoScoBo update
- Good/Bad/Uggla
plus: @lancebroz.bsky.social on Edward Cabrera, Owen Caissie, and COL's pitching future 👀
January 9, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Some great discussion from Jordan and Lance on Cabrera’s arsenal here. Can’t wait to see what the Cubs do with it
The Cubs seem high on Ballesteros’ ability to immediately hit, their lack of other SP prospects besides Wiggins, and the likely growing pains always pointed to Owen Caissie being the best prospect traded for a starter. The Marlins just had success with a similar skill set in Kyle Stowers as well.
January 7, 2026 at 9:28 PM
The Cubs seem high on Ballesteros’ ability to immediately hit, their lack of other SP prospects besides Wiggins, and the likely growing pains always pointed to Owen Caissie being the best prospect traded for a starter. The Marlins just had success with a similar skill set in Kyle Stowers as well.
Pitch movement (horizontal) leaderboard strikes again
January 7, 2026 at 8:30 PM
Pitch movement (horizontal) leaderboard strikes again
I didn’t love Imai’s profile as a pitcher, so I’m not too upset the Cubs missed out on him. The issue for the Cubs, though, is that if they don’t like giving out long-term (5+ year) deals for SP (which often include deferrals, the alternatives are often short-term, high-AAV deals…
January 2, 2026 at 11:22 PM
I didn’t love Imai’s profile as a pitcher, so I’m not too upset the Cubs missed out on him. The issue for the Cubs, though, is that if they don’t like giving out long-term (5+ year) deals for SP (which often include deferrals, the alternatives are often short-term, high-AAV deals…
Projections are more useful than last year's numbers, but here are the average 2025 ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP of the four relievers the Cubs have signed to MLB deals this offseason, weighted by total batters faced:
ERA: 3.11
xERA: 3.09
FIP: 3.35
xFIP: 3.83
ERA: 3.11
xERA: 3.09
FIP: 3.35
xFIP: 3.83
December 23, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Projections are more useful than last year's numbers, but here are the average 2025 ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP of the four relievers the Cubs have signed to MLB deals this offseason, weighted by total batters faced:
ERA: 3.11
xERA: 3.09
FIP: 3.35
xFIP: 3.83
ERA: 3.11
xERA: 3.09
FIP: 3.35
xFIP: 3.83
The most important items on the Cubs’ offseason todo list remain unchecked, but in the meantime I think the Webb, Thielbar, Milner, Austin, and Maton additions are all quite solid
December 23, 2025 at 10:55 PM
The most important items on the Cubs’ offseason todo list remain unchecked, but in the meantime I think the Webb, Thielbar, Milner, Austin, and Maton additions are all quite solid
Tatsuya Imai has plenty of upside, but if his market gets down to the level where the Cubs are the highest bidder, it would seem that teams don’t expect him to be a TOR starter right away. At some point it becomes a risk worth taking, but worth keeping in mind if he’s a team’s “ceiling” acquisition
December 22, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Tatsuya Imai has plenty of upside, but if his market gets down to the level where the Cubs are the highest bidder, it would seem that teams don’t expect him to be a TOR starter right away. At some point it becomes a risk worth taking, but worth keeping in mind if he’s a team’s “ceiling” acquisition
Feels like Willson Contreras has become a pretty underrated first baseman. And I like what Bloom has been doing in STL.
December 22, 2025 at 1:28 AM
Feels like Willson Contreras has become a pretty underrated first baseman. And I like what Bloom has been doing in STL.
Seems pretty clear that after passing on Keller at 2/22 (and to a lesser extent Weaver at the same number) the Cubs are out on high leverage relievers (Fairbanks, mostly), at least until they address their needs at SP/3B. The timing and budget constraints hurt them here, since they can’t let…
December 17, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Seems pretty clear that after passing on Keller at 2/22 (and to a lesser extent Weaver at the same number) the Cubs are out on high leverage relievers (Fairbanks, mostly), at least until they address their needs at SP/3B. The timing and budget constraints hurt them here, since they can’t let…
There’s obviously more to it than this, but Caleb Thielbar was one of the best relievers by xERA last year. This is relievers with > 40 IP.
December 16, 2025 at 6:46 PM
There’s obviously more to it than this, but Caleb Thielbar was one of the best relievers by xERA last year. This is relievers with > 40 IP.
But have they considered: Edward Cubrera
Trade talks for Marlins’ Edward Cabrera heating up, with Orioles in the mix. Story with Will Sammon. www.nytimes.com/athletic/687...
Trade talks for Marlins starter Edward Cabrera heat up, with Orioles in the mix
Cabrera, 27, is under club control for three more seasons.
www.nytimes.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:40 AM
But have they considered: Edward Cubrera
Just delaying the inevitable until
Gray and Pallante sign one year deals with the Cubs
Gray and Pallante sign one year deals with the Cubs
November 25, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Just delaying the inevitable until
Gray and Pallante sign one year deals with the Cubs
Gray and Pallante sign one year deals with the Cubs
I still think the Cubs get outbid on Ryan Helsley, but he has the kind of fastball that they love
November 22, 2025 at 6:17 PM
I still think the Cubs get outbid on Ryan Helsley, but he has the kind of fastball that they love
Feels like a lot of what determines the Cubs’ potential second starting pitcher addition is which teams like Owen Caissie the most. Pirates (Ashcraft, Oviedo)? Marlins (Cabrera, Snelling)? Royals (Bubic)? Rays (Baz, Rasmussen)? Angels, even?
November 18, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Feels like a lot of what determines the Cubs’ potential second starting pitcher addition is which teams like Owen Caissie the most. Pirates (Ashcraft, Oviedo)? Marlins (Cabrera, Snelling)? Royals (Bubic)? Rays (Baz, Rasmussen)? Angels, even?
If Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty are hurt or just enjoying their current teams, that's one thing, but if they think they couldn't beat their current 1 year deals on the open market the Cubs surely won't be offering Shōta Imanaga the qualifying offer.
November 5, 2025 at 3:20 AM
If Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty are hurt or just enjoying their current teams, that's one thing, but if they think they couldn't beat their current 1 year deals on the open market the Cubs surely won't be offering Shōta Imanaga the qualifying offer.
Where’s Aaron Ashby when you need him?
October 18, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Where’s Aaron Ashby when you need him?
That double (117.3 MPH) was the hardest-hit ball of Seiya Suzuki's career. His previous hardest was this home run against the Reds in May (116.2 MPH) sporty-clips.mlb.com/YVkyVmVfWGw0...
sporty-clips.mlb.com
October 8, 2025 at 10:21 PM
That double (117.3 MPH) was the hardest-hit ball of Seiya Suzuki's career. His previous hardest was this home run against the Reds in May (116.2 MPH) sporty-clips.mlb.com/YVkyVmVfWGw0...
I never expected Michael Busch to be this good
October 8, 2025 at 9:43 PM
I never expected Michael Busch to be this good