Ryan J. McComb
@bayespr.bsky.social
Maker of http://IL9.org 🚀📈 538er at heart. Forecasting nerd? #IL09 enthusiast
Pinned
25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.
IL9.org MODEL!! yay!
After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇
Model: il9.org/odds
After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇
Model: il9.org/odds
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
IL9.org
February 8, 2026 at 7:53 PM
IL9.org MODEL!! yay!
After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇
Model: il9.org/odds
After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇
Model: il9.org/odds
25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.
February 8, 2026 at 1:59 PM
25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.
February 8, 2026 at 4:56 AM
transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??
February 8, 2026 at 4:06 AM
transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??
A whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.
February 8, 2026 at 2:44 AM
A whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.
Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
Evanston Township High School student Ryan McComb built a really cool real-time aggregator site that collects data points on prediction markets, fundraising data and a bunch of other stuff for #IL09
👇🏼 Super cool stuff
il9.org
👇🏼 Super cool stuff
il9.org
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
il9.org
February 7, 2026 at 12:42 AM
Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
February 7, 2026 at 8:11 PM
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
On Super Tuesday, voters in 15 states will determine how 854 ⎯ more than a third of the total available ⎯ delegates will be distributed between the two remaining Republican candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Follow live results here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
March 6, 2024 at 12:22 AM
On Super Tuesday, voters in 15 states will determine how 854 ⎯ more than a third of the total available ⎯ delegates will be distributed between the two remaining Republican candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Follow live results here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
One thing I have noticed about this place is that the average education level is close to or above a masters.
December 6, 2023 at 10:12 PM
One thing I have noticed about this place is that the average education level is close to or above a masters.