Yes, this trend I saw was based off of her surprising support with "very liberals" who we thought as higher propensity in the model.

why? I’m interested.

I wish there was data as granular, but no dice finding anything so far.

**BTW, I don’t have an active ACCT (as it is illegal). This was someone’s account that I used to take a screenshot while out at dinner.**

We also increased the weight given to the midpoint and Order-Book weighted aspects, resulting in a significantly more accurate overall perspective on the race. This is IL9.org at its best!!!

this has like become the unofficial thread of IL-09 forecasting and data, I love it :)

Sick stuff, if you wouldn’t mind, could you share the methodology you used? I would love to be so enlightened :)

Yes, when I was originally trying to build a model I was gonna use data from the 2022 IL-1 race which was a quite similar

This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.

Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)

This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.

Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)

Thanks!! No offense taken :)

I genuinely hope we get more, but I am doubtful of more than one more high-quality poll. Also, no one has any clue what this district will look like (from a turnout by precinct perspective) bc it’s been so horribly boring and uncompetitive.

I understand. #NJ11 markets were criminally overpriced, even on election night. However, the polling for this race has been Sh** other than the DFP poll that had crosstabs, but that was so long ago it’s not useful anymore.

manifold.markets?r=SmVyb21lSF... here's a link if you want, or I could make the market. Tbh, it’s a very niche thing, so open interest might be low if you or I make one.

polymarket.com/event/il-07-... low volume and Bid-a-Spread is hugeeeee but not a bad option

i was thinking of trying this for raja and stratton

Yeah, I mean this model could be applied to basically every house and Senate race or primary. I looked around and IL7 lacks PMs in general (eg. the quick search I made though a few sites didn’t yield any results:)

I could make a market on Manifold or suggest one on Kalshi too, wouldn’t be too hard.