Ryan J. McComb
@bayespr.bsky.social
Maker of http://IL9.org 🚀📈 538er at heart. Forecasting nerd? #IL09 enthusiast
25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.
February 8, 2026 at 1:59 PM
25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.
transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??
February 8, 2026 at 4:06 AM
transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??
A whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.
February 8, 2026 at 2:44 AM
A whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.
