Good morning.
As expected, the Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%—the highest level since 1995.
A somewhat dovish press conference surprised markets, contributing to the Yen weakening by 1% against the dollar.
#economy #markets #japan #boj #centralbanks

'Openai and Anthropic could remain private and risk running out of the capital needed to stay ahead. Or they go public and risk markets’ impatience over profits. Either way, their lofty valuations will soon be put to the test.' www.economist.com/business/202...

After a sharp depreciation in the first four months of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been surprisingly rangebound. What is even more notable is how that range has narrowed in these final months of 2025.
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CPI expected to rise tomorrow (we won't get a m/m reading).

PCE, CPI, PPI inflation Jan 2025 and today
Earnings, Mfg jobs, unemployment rate... Bloomberg

US large caps are on track for their third consecutive year of well above average returns: after price returns of 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, the S&P 500 is up 15.6% YTD vs. an average calendar year return of 9.2% since the index’s inception
- S&P Dow Jones Indices

GS: A Fiscal Boost in Early 2026

The latest US jobs report shows slowing job growth (64,000) and rising unemployment (4.6%).
As Chair Powell noted last week, we should interpret these numbers cautiously due to shutdown-related data distortions.
However, if forced…

'Tech spending barely registered as a growth driver just a few years ago. Now it’s the center of the story, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the economy’s expansion.' www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

UK economy contracts for a second consecutive month, falling short of the consensus forecast:
October GDP fell by 0.1% as economic activity was undermined by volatilite uncertainty ahead of the budget announcement.
Sector analysis points to an extended “wait and see” attitude from both…

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Are we in AI-driven optimism—or euphoria?
I talked with Steve Sosnick about bubble parallels, why dips still get bought, and how investors can hedge as markets get more concentrated.
Watch here: youtu.be/trzUqoXHHZE

Fed week opens with a stealth distribution day: S&P barely down, but 10 of 11 sectors in the red, breadth weak, and bond charts breaking as yields push higher.
Full CHART THIS breakdown → youtu.be/F5ws1TP8WsQ

'Investors have sunk more than $60 billion into OpenAI, recently valuing it at $500 billion, on the belief it will continue to dominate the market for developing AI that creates content and reasons the way humans do. That domination is teetering.' www.theinformation.com/articles/ope...

Challenges persist w/the Olympic Pipeline- both lines are shut, WA has declared an emergency so truckers can drive more hours to provide Jet fuel to SeaTac- though airlines can adaopt by tankering. 5 refineries feed 325kbpd into the line. Hard to replace that capacity w/trucks.

Oil.. sneaky.. could have its lowest weekly settle since January 2021

$UBER plunged 7% yesterday, cratered below the 200dma, now lots of overhead supply

Worst RSI of the year

The Dow is beating SPX and NDX in the last 3 months

Markets rallied on shutdown headlines—but can it stick without fresh data? In today’s episode, I analyze a Wells Fargo list of potential “tariff unwind” winners and show how to turn any article into a chart list (performance, RRG, chart review).
Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLbL...

US oil companies have 65 fewer oil rigs active today- 414- versus 479 a year ago.

Gas Prices Inch Up as Refinery Struggles Lead to Notable Drop in Supply, by @GasBuddyGuy open.substack.com/pub/gasprice...