@ashgoyal.bsky.social
Reposted
As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data.
Payrolls, GDP, expenditures, and income will all grow more slowly now that the immigration surge has ended. That changes how we interpret ... everything.
My first piece for @piie.com
www.piie.com/publications...
Payrolls, GDP, expenditures, and income will all grow more slowly now that the immigration surge has ended. That changes how we interpret ... everything.
My first piece for @piie.com
www.piie.com/publications...
As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data
US population growth has slowed sharply in the last year and a half, as the immigration surge of the early 2020s has ended and the population continues to age. Fewer jobs are needed to keep up with th...
www.piie.com
July 31, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Reposted
My daughter gets excited when certain cities come up (Austin, Salt Lake City) because such-and-such YouTuber lives there.
listening to young zoomers chat at the barber shop and i still think my cohort of millennials underestimate just how much texas cities — specifically austin, houston, san antonio — represents a promising lifestyle & upward mobility in the same way the coastal superstar cities did for us a decade ago
January 11, 2025 at 6:47 PM
My daughter gets excited when certain cities come up (Austin, Salt Lake City) because such-and-such YouTuber lives there.
The best summary I've ever come across on the difference between societal/moral goods in US & Europe.
December 23, 2024 at 10:20 PM
The best summary I've ever come across on the difference between societal/moral goods in US & Europe.
I think this thread, particularly this post, sums up the economy. Trailing indicator. Labour & housing slowing together is not to be taken lightly. Lack of secondary home sales pushed volumes to the primary housing market since 2022, but that engine is also stalling because of high mortgage rates.
People are pointing to solid consumption numbers and GDPNow, but those aren’t leading indicators. Cyclical areas of the economy, notably manufacturing and residential construction, are softening, and any shock in 2025 (market selloff? AI cooling? Trump shenanigans?) pose a real threat to things.
December 23, 2024 at 10:00 PM
I think this thread, particularly this post, sums up the economy. Trailing indicator. Labour & housing slowing together is not to be taken lightly. Lack of secondary home sales pushed volumes to the primary housing market since 2022, but that engine is also stalling because of high mortgage rates.
One of the (very) few data-only based handles around on social media.
17 min wage hikes in California over 35 years. Where are the deleterious effects on its fast food employment? Not in this chart:
December 23, 2024 at 9:06 AM
One of the (very) few data-only based handles around on social media.
Reposted
The highest-conviction US macro view I have right now is homebuilder profitability is cracking, that's going to lead to a slump in residential construction in the first half of next year, and that means all the directional econ risk is one way at the moment.
December 12, 2024 at 9:05 PM
The highest-conviction US macro view I have right now is homebuilder profitability is cracking, that's going to lead to a slump in residential construction in the first half of next year, and that means all the directional econ risk is one way at the moment.
Reposted
Waking up on January 20th realizing your Labor and not Capital
a young boy is making a surprised face with his hands on his face in a bathroom .
ALT: a young boy is making a surprised face with his hands on his face in a bathroom .
media.tenor.com
November 26, 2024 at 1:46 PM
Waking up on January 20th realizing your Labor and not Capital