Fint lille Indlæg af Cochrane om kausalitet, korrellation og variation. De små spørgsmål kontra de store.--
www.grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-...
www.grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-...
Causation Does not Imply Variation
Tyler Muir suggested this lovely catchphrase, which should stand next to “Correlation does not imply causation” in our menagerie of econometric sayings.
www.grumpy-economist.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Fint lille Indlæg af Cochrane om kausalitet, korrellation og variation. De små spørgsmål kontra de store.--
www.grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-...
www.grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-...
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Den offentlige ØMU-gæld i #dkøko lå på 888 mia. kr.=29,7 pct. af BNP ultimo 2. kvt. 2025 > bundrekord på 26,4 pct. af BNP i 2008.
MEN ØMU-gæld er bruttogæld.
Medregnes de finansielle aktiver er den offentlige nettoFORMUE på 776 mia. kr. 2. kvt. 25 = 25,9 pct. af BNP = rekord høj #dkpol
MEN ØMU-gæld er bruttogæld.
Medregnes de finansielle aktiver er den offentlige nettoFORMUE på 776 mia. kr. 2. kvt. 25 = 25,9 pct. af BNP = rekord høj #dkpol
October 29, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Fantastisk billede. Macron skulle bare åbne øjnene og munden lidt, så ville han være den fjerde gargoyle!
Emmanuel Macron’s great centrist venture is unravelling. Like moderates everywhere, the French president has a blunt toolkit to use against populists’ raw indignation and defiant certainties
The unravelling of France’s centrist project
There is a real chance that power will fall into the hands of the extremes
econ.st
October 3, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Fantastisk billede. Macron skulle bare åbne øjnene og munden lidt, så ville han være den fjerde gargoyle!
Reposted by Asger Olsen
This weeks post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market
I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
October 3, 2025 at 8:19 AM
This weeks post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Is the credibility of U.S. government data under threat?
In a new episode of The Current, Ben Harris explains why reliable federal statistics—like unemployment and inflation—are essential for a well-functioning economy.
In a new episode of The Current, Ben Harris explains why reliable federal statistics—like unemployment and inflation—are essential for a well-functioning economy.
Is the credibility of US government data at risk? Why it matters to everyone. | Brookings
The credibility of U.S. federal government data may seem an arcane topic, but it is critical for a well-functioning economy. To explore the importance of reliable economic data and potential challenge...
brook.gs
October 2, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Is the credibility of U.S. government data under threat?
In a new episode of The Current, Ben Harris explains why reliable federal statistics—like unemployment and inflation—are essential for a well-functioning economy.
In a new episode of The Current, Ben Harris explains why reliable federal statistics—like unemployment and inflation—are essential for a well-functioning economy.
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Quite something that Hegseth is twice as unpopular as the pro-disease guy.
Favorable numbers for top Trump officials
RFK Jr: -7
Rubio: -10
Vance: -11
Hegseth: -14
RFK Jr: -7
Rubio: -10
Vance: -11
Hegseth: -14
September 4, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Quite something that Hegseth is twice as unpopular as the pro-disease guy.
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Donald Trump’s attacks on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and his decision to install an ultra-loyalist as its new head pose a serious threat to the credibility of official US economic data, writes Anne O. Krueger. bit.ly/473F2cR
Lies, Damned Lies, and Donald Trump’s Statistics
Anne O. Krueger warns that political meddling will erode trust in official statistics and fuel global uncertainty.
bit.ly
August 21, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Donald Trump’s attacks on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and his decision to install an ultra-loyalist as its new head pose a serious threat to the credibility of official US economic data, writes Anne O. Krueger. bit.ly/473F2cR
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Instead of firing the commissioner, the president should be giving the agency a raise in the form of a bigger budget. The goal should be to restore public trust in government statistics, not undermine it.
August 8, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Instead of firing the commissioner, the president should be giving the agency a raise in the form of a bigger budget. The goal should be to restore public trust in government statistics, not undermine it.
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Those are not “her” (BLS Commissioner’s) numbers. They’re constructed by career civil servants using data collected from thousands of businesses and government agencies.
August 4, 2025 at 3:12 AM
Those are not “her” (BLS Commissioner’s) numbers. They’re constructed by career civil servants using data collected from thousands of businesses and government agencies.
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Okay this is getting ridiculous.
In addition to the ongoing problems with the UK’s Labour Force Survey, the Wealth and Assets Survey (key source for measuring wealth inequality) has now also had its accreditation revoked due to falling response rates.
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-sus...
In addition to the ongoing problems with the UK’s Labour Force Survey, the Wealth and Assets Survey (key source for measuring wealth inequality) has now also had its accreditation revoked due to falling response rates.
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-sus...
June 14, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Okay this is getting ridiculous.
In addition to the ongoing problems with the UK’s Labour Force Survey, the Wealth and Assets Survey (key source for measuring wealth inequality) has now also had its accreditation revoked due to falling response rates.
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-sus...
In addition to the ongoing problems with the UK’s Labour Force Survey, the Wealth and Assets Survey (key source for measuring wealth inequality) has now also had its accreditation revoked due to falling response rates.
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-sus...
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Teoretisk (makro)økonomi er undervurderet. Just sayin'
May 22, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Teoretisk (makro)økonomi er undervurderet. Just sayin'
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Undskyld @tv2danmark.bsky.social, men I kan simpelthen ikke lave gule breaking bjælker på denne graf. Tallene er IKKE sæsonkorrigerede - og eksporten har de seneste år vist store stigninger i 4. kvt., og efterfølgende fald i 1. kvt.
Laver I så også breaking, når ledigheden stiger ved årsskiftet?
Laver I så også breaking, når ledigheden stiger ved årsskiftet?
May 9, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Undskyld @tv2danmark.bsky.social, men I kan simpelthen ikke lave gule breaking bjælker på denne graf. Tallene er IKKE sæsonkorrigerede - og eksporten har de seneste år vist store stigninger i 4. kvt., og efterfølgende fald i 1. kvt.
Laver I så også breaking, når ledigheden stiger ved årsskiftet?
Laver I så også breaking, når ledigheden stiger ved årsskiftet?
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Netop!
Efter at 1. kvartal endte med tilbagegang for amerikansk økonomi bliver det interessant at se om det forsætter ind i 2. kvartal. Pt. står væksten til at blive 1 pct. annualiseret med gdpnow. Det er ikke en imponerende vækstrate for USA, men fortegnet er vel nærmest en lettelse…
#dkøko
#dkøko
May 4, 2025 at 3:51 AM
Netop!
Desværre fører vi sjældent tidsserier så langt tilbage 😅
Det lyder som en tidsserie, du ville give din ene arm for, @jonnielsen.bsky.social 😂
April 25, 2025 at 5:27 AM
Desværre fører vi sjældent tidsserier så langt tilbage 😅
Reposted by Asger Olsen
Whatever happens, remember that before the Trump disaster occurred, the US was set for a GDP growth rate of 2.5-3% and lower inflation in 2025, but for some reason a tiny GOP majority (what Trump calls a landslide) wanted a recession & they are likely to get a depression. /4
April 25, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Whatever happens, remember that before the Trump disaster occurred, the US was set for a GDP growth rate of 2.5-3% and lower inflation in 2025, but for some reason a tiny GOP majority (what Trump calls a landslide) wanted a recession & they are likely to get a depression. /4
Reposted by Asger Olsen
To compete effectively with China this century, we need strong allies, economic ties to free world, impactful foreign assistance, global media, organizations that promote democracy, & an innovative economy fueled by our research universities, ie the exact opposite of Trumps policies.
April 16, 2025 at 4:36 PM
To compete effectively with China this century, we need strong allies, economic ties to free world, impactful foreign assistance, global media, organizations that promote democracy, & an innovative economy fueled by our research universities, ie the exact opposite of Trumps policies.
Så meget for rationel forventningsdannelse!
Michigan numbers are brutal. But one amazing thing: Republicans still think Trump will magically end inflation. From Goldman Sachs:
April 12, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Så meget for rationel forventningsdannelse!
Reposted by Asger Olsen
"The bond market is not like the Supreme Court, or Paul Weiss, or Columbia University, or any of the other institutions Trump has conquered, co-opted, or corrupted."
"He cannot scare it into submission. He cannot bribe it."
from @jvl.bsky.social
www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-fina...
"He cannot scare it into submission. He cannot bribe it."
from @jvl.bsky.social
www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-fina...
Trump Finally Met an Adversary Totally Immune to His Bullshit
And it’s not the Supreme Court.
www.thebulwark.com
April 12, 2025 at 2:49 AM
"The bond market is not like the Supreme Court, or Paul Weiss, or Columbia University, or any of the other institutions Trump has conquered, co-opted, or corrupted."
"He cannot scare it into submission. He cannot bribe it."
from @jvl.bsky.social
www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-fina...
"He cannot scare it into submission. He cannot bribe it."
from @jvl.bsky.social
www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-fina...
Reposted by Asger Olsen
"This is what arbitrary, absolute power looks like. And this is why the men who wrote the Constitution never wanted anyone to have it"
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
Trump Is Showing Why Dictatorships Fail
The authors of the Constitution separated powers for a reason.
www.theatlantic.com
April 10, 2025 at 3:24 PM
"This is what arbitrary, absolute power looks like. And this is why the men who wrote the Constitution never wanted anyone to have it"
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
Rigtig godt splrgsmål!
Advarsel til #dkpol: De sidste par år er #dkøko råderummet kun gået op op og op. Det kan også gå den anden vej, siger vi i @finans.dk. Er sket før jf. figur.
Ekstra usikkerhed fra udl. beskæftigelse: Hvordan skal vi splitte konjunktur og struktur uden god empiri?
finans.dk/debat/ECE180...
Ekstra usikkerhed fra udl. beskæftigelse: Hvordan skal vi splitte konjunktur og struktur uden god empiri?
finans.dk/debat/ECE180...
April 10, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Rigtig godt splrgsmål!
Reposted by Asger Olsen
I sommeren 2024 nedjusterede man forventningen til fremtidens fertilitet fra 1,9 til 1,7 barn per kvinde.
Fertiliteten i dag er ca. 1,5, og vores seneste analyse viser, at at fertiliteten nok snarere går længere ned, end op.
Betydningen deraf er ret omfattende, jf. den her artikel. #dkøko #dkpol
Fertiliteten i dag er ca. 1,5, og vores seneste analyse viser, at at fertiliteten nok snarere går længere ned, end op.
Betydningen deraf er ret omfattende, jf. den her artikel. #dkøko #dkpol
Vil vi få flere børn i fremtiden?
Ifølge en ny Kraka-Deloitte-analyse kan fertiliteten falde til 1,3 i 2050 – ikke stige, som den officielle fremskrivning forventer. Det kan betyde 300.000 færre danskere.
Læs mere i Berlingske:
www.berlingske.dk/indland/en-t...
@rasmussalmon.bsky.social
Ifølge en ny Kraka-Deloitte-analyse kan fertiliteten falde til 1,3 i 2050 – ikke stige, som den officielle fremskrivning forventer. Det kan betyde 300.000 færre danskere.
Læs mere i Berlingske:
www.berlingske.dk/indland/en-t...
@rasmussalmon.bsky.social
En tendens blandt danskerne får topchef til at bekymre sig: Sådan kommer vi til at mangle talent
Læs mere her.
www.berlingske.dk
March 26, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Reposted by Asger Olsen
It’s the stupid, economy.
April 8, 2025 at 10:10 PM
It’s the stupid, economy.
Reposted by Asger Olsen
This is the literal destruction of knowledge.
Mississippi libraries are being ordered to remove academic research on race and gender from library databases.
mississippitoday.org/2025/04/08/m...
Mississippi libraries are being ordered to remove academic research on race and gender from library databases.
mississippitoday.org/2025/04/08/m...
Mississippi libraries ordered to delete academic research in response to state laws - Mississippi Today
The two research collections state officials ordered for deletion included material from professional journals, conference papers, books, student dissertations, periodicals and newspaper articles.
mississippitoday.org
April 9, 2025 at 1:36 AM
This is the literal destruction of knowledge.
Mississippi libraries are being ordered to remove academic research on race and gender from library databases.
mississippitoday.org/2025/04/08/m...
Mississippi libraries are being ordered to remove academic research on race and gender from library databases.
mississippitoday.org/2025/04/08/m...