Arcane Demesne
@arcanedemesne.bsky.social
Below is my 2026 GA midterms prediction, saved here for posterity. Very interested to see if it holds up. Has a lot of data that went into it based on VA.
https://bsky.app/profile/arcanedemesne.bsky.social/post/3m57yfdj6y22u
https://bsky.app/profile/arcanedemesne.bsky.social/post/3m57yfdj6y22u
@djsoke.bsky.social If Davidson is 24.84% all votes instead of 22.74% of all votes that's about a 9.25% overall vote share increase. If, as estimates suggest we are seeing2,000 extra votes in Davidson, with a 23% swing in margin that's 25,200 net votes vs the previous 19,700. So she's gaining 5,500.
November 27, 2025 at 2:13 AM
@djsoke.bsky.social If Davidson is 24.84% all votes instead of 22.74% of all votes that's about a 9.25% overall vote share increase. If, as estimates suggest we are seeing2,000 extra votes in Davidson, with a 23% swing in margin that's 25,200 net votes vs the previous 19,700. So she's gaining 5,500.
Final EV Report For TN7 Special Election Is Out:
9,662 Votes Today
Davidson | 2,972 | 30.8%
Williamson | 1,783 | 18.5%%
Montgomery | 1,525 | 15.8%
Robertson | 843 | 8.73%
Dickson | 738 | 7.64%
Cheatham | 682 | 7.06%
Every county was down from Tuesday except Davidson.
9,662 Votes Today
Davidson | 2,972 | 30.8%
Williamson | 1,783 | 18.5%%
Montgomery | 1,525 | 15.8%
Robertson | 843 | 8.73%
Dickson | 738 | 7.64%
Cheatham | 682 | 7.06%
Every county was down from Tuesday except Davidson.
November 27, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Final EV Report For TN7 Special Election Is Out:
9,662 Votes Today
Davidson | 2,972 | 30.8%
Williamson | 1,783 | 18.5%%
Montgomery | 1,525 | 15.8%
Robertson | 843 | 8.73%
Dickson | 738 | 7.64%
Cheatham | 682 | 7.06%
Every county was down from Tuesday except Davidson.
9,662 Votes Today
Davidson | 2,972 | 30.8%
Williamson | 1,783 | 18.5%%
Montgomery | 1,525 | 15.8%
Robertson | 843 | 8.73%
Dickson | 738 | 7.64%
Cheatham | 682 | 7.06%
Every county was down from Tuesday except Davidson.
@djsoke.bsky.social Oh shit here we go. There was a reason Davidson did their detailed report early.
November 27, 2025 at 1:16 AM
@djsoke.bsky.social Oh shit here we go. There was a reason Davidson did their detailed report early.
Davidson hit 2,950 today. Slightly under my target range but pretty close to 3,000 once mail is added. Well ahead of any other county today though they did have 4.5 more hours of voting.
November 26, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Davidson hit 2,950 today. Slightly under my target range but pretty close to 3,000 once mail is added. Well ahead of any other county today though they did have 4.5 more hours of voting.
Reposted by Arcane Demesne
On December 2nd, we will win this, Tennessee!💕
November 26, 2025 at 11:28 PM
On December 2nd, we will win this, Tennessee!💕
Republicans are sending out mass texts with Trump's face on them to everyone who lives in an area code that could include people in TN-7. They are so afraid wtf.
November 26, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Republicans are sending out mass texts with Trump's face on them to everyone who lives in an area code that could include people in TN-7. They are so afraid wtf.
Well, voting is close in Davidson, but might still be lines at Lentz and maybe Bordeaux. Metro got to 10 minute wait but they are probably done now. Hillwood I think never got passed a 10 minute wait.
Looking like 3,000 to 5,000 depending on how slower locations turned out and how fast Lentz moved.
Looking like 3,000 to 5,000 depending on how slower locations turned out and how fast Lentz moved.
November 26, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Well, voting is close in Davidson, but might still be lines at Lentz and maybe Bordeaux. Metro got to 10 minute wait but they are probably done now. Hillwood I think never got passed a 10 minute wait.
Looking like 3,000 to 5,000 depending on how slower locations turned out and how fast Lentz moved.
Looking like 3,000 to 5,000 depending on how slower locations turned out and how fast Lentz moved.
Reposted by Arcane Demesne
Yesssss!!!!!!! Omg I love this arc so much 💖💖💖
November 26, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Yesssss!!!!!!! Omg I love this arc so much 💖💖💖
Reposted by Arcane Demesne
My winning 2023 slogan: ”Fixing Roads. Feeding Kids.”
2024: I gave the go-ahead to @lynleethorne.bsky.social for Rural GroundGame to use “Good Neighbors: Feed Kids. Fix Roads. Vote [Democratic ticket].”
2025: @aftynbehn.bsky.social put her own spin on it.
Why? It’s about getting the basics right.
2024: I gave the go-ahead to @lynleethorne.bsky.social for Rural GroundGame to use “Good Neighbors: Feed Kids. Fix Roads. Vote [Democratic ticket].”
2025: @aftynbehn.bsky.social put her own spin on it.
Why? It’s about getting the basics right.
November 26, 2025 at 9:12 PM
My winning 2023 slogan: ”Fixing Roads. Feeding Kids.”
2024: I gave the go-ahead to @lynleethorne.bsky.social for Rural GroundGame to use “Good Neighbors: Feed Kids. Fix Roads. Vote [Democratic ticket].”
2025: @aftynbehn.bsky.social put her own spin on it.
Why? It’s about getting the basics right.
2024: I gave the go-ahead to @lynleethorne.bsky.social for Rural GroundGame to use “Good Neighbors: Feed Kids. Fix Roads. Vote [Democratic ticket].”
2025: @aftynbehn.bsky.social put her own spin on it.
Why? It’s about getting the basics right.
I would trade my twin brother to a random demon or fairy for a couple reports on the lines at Bordeaux.
November 26, 2025 at 9:02 PM
I would trade my twin brother to a random demon or fairy for a couple reports on the lines at Bordeaux.
@indivisnashville.bsky.social Ya'll have any reports on Bordeaux today? Lentz is *slammed*, Hillwood and Madison are decently active. Metro as well. No info on Bellevue or Bordeaux. Looking good for 3k but I'd love to hear about the Bordeaux line to see if 4k is on the table.
November 26, 2025 at 8:53 PM
@indivisnashville.bsky.social Ya'll have any reports on Bordeaux today? Lentz is *slammed*, Hillwood and Madison are decently active. Metro as well. No info on Bellevue or Bordeaux. Looking good for 3k but I'd love to hear about the Bordeaux line to see if 4k is on the table.
@djsoke.bsky.social Montgomery and Cheatham aren't updating their daily numbers for some reason. Usually would be out by now. Ah well, we'll see what happens.
Lentz is arguably *too busy*, back up maybe 30-40 minutes.
Lentz is arguably *too busy*, back up maybe 30-40 minutes.
November 26, 2025 at 7:20 PM
@djsoke.bsky.social Montgomery and Cheatham aren't updating their daily numbers for some reason. Usually would be out by now. Ah well, we'll see what happens.
Lentz is arguably *too busy*, back up maybe 30-40 minutes.
Lentz is arguably *too busy*, back up maybe 30-40 minutes.
@aftynbehn.bsky.social Over 100 people in line at Lentz right now, at least one person told me they are bailing to go vote at Madison.
Lentz I believe has 8 voting stations and I think the number of checkin clerks may actually be a limiting factor. Turnout is too high girl, slow it down.
Lentz I believe has 8 voting stations and I think the number of checkin clerks may actually be a limiting factor. Turnout is too high girl, slow it down.
November 26, 2025 at 7:18 PM
@aftynbehn.bsky.social Over 100 people in line at Lentz right now, at least one person told me they are bailing to go vote at Madison.
Lentz I believe has 8 voting stations and I think the number of checkin clerks may actually be a limiting factor. Turnout is too high girl, slow it down.
Lentz I believe has 8 voting stations and I think the number of checkin clerks may actually be a limiting factor. Turnout is too high girl, slow it down.
@aftynbehn.bsky.social 5 people in line at Madison Library a little bit ago, that's arguably good news, implies something like 50 people across all 6 locations at one time. Need about 400 an hour to hit your target goal for the day/EV overall.
November 26, 2025 at 6:45 PM
@aftynbehn.bsky.social 5 people in line at Madison Library a little bit ago, that's arguably good news, implies something like 50 people across all 6 locations at one time. Need about 400 an hour to hit your target goal for the day/EV overall.
@samshirazi.bsky.social The Memerson poll has Behn tied in Montgomery but only winning Davidson by 43%. No way that's right. She'll be around +55 to +65 in Davidson. The crosstabs are otherwise typical Emerson nonsense but we'll see how it shakes out.
November 26, 2025 at 6:38 PM
@samshirazi.bsky.social The Memerson poll has Behn tied in Montgomery but only winning Davidson by 43%. No way that's right. She'll be around +55 to +65 in Davidson. The crosstabs are otherwise typical Emerson nonsense but we'll see how it shakes out.
@aftynbehn.bsky.social Fun fact, Emerson is showing you tied in Montgomery but only at +43 in Davidson. There's no way in hell you're only up 43 is Davidson when it was +48 in 2022 and this is a *way* bluer year than that. I'm projecting +60-+70 depending on turnout in Davidson.
November 26, 2025 at 5:10 PM
@aftynbehn.bsky.social Fun fact, Emerson is showing you tied in Montgomery but only at +43 in Davidson. There's no way in hell you're only up 43 is Davidson when it was +48 in 2022 and this is a *way* bluer year than that. I'm projecting +60-+70 depending on turnout in Davidson.
She wins if Davidson turns out and Dems across the nation take the time to call voters in Davidson and Montgomery and remind them of the election.
She's doing better than the Meme-rson poll says actually.
She's doing better than the Meme-rson poll says actually.
November 26, 2025 at 4:51 PM
She wins if Davidson turns out and Dems across the nation take the time to call voters in Davidson and Montgomery and remind them of the election.
She's doing better than the Meme-rson poll says actually.
She's doing better than the Meme-rson poll says actually.
@djsoke.bsky.social So turns out Jody Barrett is a spineless little bitch afterall. Lmao. Let's see if it works for them:
www.instagram.com/reel/DRfFq8w...
www.instagram.com/reel/DRfFq8w...
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November 26, 2025 at 2:34 PM
@djsoke.bsky.social So turns out Jody Barrett is a spineless little bitch afterall. Lmao. Let's see if it works for them:
www.instagram.com/reel/DRfFq8w...
www.instagram.com/reel/DRfFq8w...
@djsoke.bsky.social 11,489 votes yesterday, Williamson only 2,200, though. Dickson 1,132. Robertson 903 so still falling behind. Wild to see Davidson and Montgomery briefly down to 42.3% of the vote though. 10134 votes, 88.2% out of the big 6 counties. Terrible news for Republicans are rurals crash.
November 26, 2025 at 1:42 PM
@djsoke.bsky.social 11,489 votes yesterday, Williamson only 2,200, though. Dickson 1,132. Robertson 903 so still falling behind. Wild to see Davidson and Montgomery briefly down to 42.3% of the vote though. 10134 votes, 88.2% out of the big 6 counties. Terrible news for Republicans are rurals crash.
Reposted by Arcane Demesne
@aftynbehn.bsky.social canvassing! We can flip District 7!
November 26, 2025 at 2:53 AM
@aftynbehn.bsky.social canvassing! We can flip District 7!
@aftynbehn.bsky.social is on track to get see many as 40,000 voters overall turn out inDavidson and she's probably winning them by at least60%. Huge props to GracieFreeman and the team there. At this point we're really only looking at the vote margins in Montgomery and Williamson to see if she wins.
November 26, 2025 at 2:49 AM
@aftynbehn.bsky.social is on track to get see many as 40,000 voters overall turn out inDavidson and she's probably winning them by at least60%. Huge props to GracieFreeman and the team there. At this point we're really only looking at the vote margins in Montgomery and Williamson to see if she wins.
@djsoke.bsky.social Well the Trump tweet will certainly cause a ripple in voting tomorrow. Hmm.
November 26, 2025 at 2:08 AM
@djsoke.bsky.social Well the Trump tweet will certainly cause a ripple in voting tomorrow. Hmm.
Reposted by Arcane Demesne
Swamp the vote
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Republicans hitting the all caps Panic button in TN-7
Fitting that the swampiest of all would call on them to “swamp the vote”
Fitting that the swampiest of all would call on them to “swamp the vote”
November 26, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Swamp the vote
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@aftynbehn.bsky.social For the first time in a month Trump has tweeted on twitter begging his drones to turn out for Matt van Epps. All caps, tons of characters, very scared tweet. The tweet of a coward and a loser. Hope Gavin, as slimy as he is, does a hilarious parody of that tweet. So pathetic...
November 26, 2025 at 1:55 AM
@aftynbehn.bsky.social For the first time in a month Trump has tweeted on twitter begging his drones to turn out for Matt van Epps. All caps, tons of characters, very scared tweet. The tweet of a coward and a loser. Hope Gavin, as slimy as he is, does a hilarious parody of that tweet. So pathetic...
@aftynbehn.bsky.social @kgreenmd.bsky.social @downtowncheribrown.bsky.social Boom. Davidson dropping the late EV atom bomb. That implies tomorrow is going to be even higher. Will Davidson crack 22,000 for EV?
November 25, 2025 Cumulative In-Person Early Voting Total: 17,444
November 26, 2025 at 1:27 AM