Arcane Demesne
@arcanedemesne.bsky.social
Below is my 2026 GA midterms prediction, saved here for posterity. Very interested to see if it holds up. Has a lot of data that went into it based on VA.
https://bsky.app/profile/arcanedemesne.bsky.social/post/3m57yfdj6y22u
https://bsky.app/profile/arcanedemesne.bsky.social/post/3m57yfdj6y22u
Behn actually has a very good shot at flipping this seat. Probably 60/40 at the current moment. A lot depends on how hard Rs and Ds go respectively in spending and canvassing for their candidate in the end game.
Here's mailer going out right now. Question is if Trump MAGA low-prop voters will care.
Here's mailer going out right now. Question is if Trump MAGA low-prop voters will care.
November 17, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Behn actually has a very good shot at flipping this seat. Probably 60/40 at the current moment. A lot depends on how hard Rs and Ds go respectively in spending and canvassing for their candidate in the end game.
Here's mailer going out right now. Question is if Trump MAGA low-prop voters will care.
Here's mailer going out right now. Question is if Trump MAGA low-prop voters will care.
In honor of our esteemed president: #VoteEarlyAndVoteAftyn
November 17, 2025 at 7:21 PM
In honor of our esteemed president: #VoteEarlyAndVoteAftyn
I did a little example election for Reddit having Behn up 100 votes. Technically I'd expect higher margins in the 11 very R counties but lower turnout than in the example but I wanted to simplify the math as much as possible:
November 16, 2025 at 7:24 AM
I did a little example election for Reddit having Behn up 100 votes. Technically I'd expect higher margins in the 11 very R counties but lower turnout than in the example but I wanted to simplify the math as much as possible:
But the most recent update on the EV wait time page was crazy:
November 1, 2025 at 6:56 PM
But the most recent update on the EV wait time page was crazy: