Arcane Demesne
@arcanedemesne.bsky.social
Below is my 2026 GA midterms prediction, saved here for posterity. Very interested to see if it holds up. Has a lot of data that went into it based on VA.
https://bsky.app/profile/arcanedemesne.bsky.social/post/3m57yfdj6y22u
https://bsky.app/profile/arcanedemesne.bsky.social/post/3m57yfdj6y22u
I am now going back to this being my game development account. No elections for a minimum of 7-8 months if ever. If you followed me for VA/NJ or TN I'd suggest you unfollow. Plus I had a pretty bad miss, although the reason was pretty obvious, last minute rural surge. Sorry I got it wrong guys. Bye.
December 3, 2025 at 3:57 AM
I am now going back to this being my game development account. No elections for a minimum of 7-8 months if ever. If you followed me for VA/NJ or TN I'd suggest you unfollow. Plus I had a pretty bad miss, although the reason was pretty obvious, last minute rural surge. Sorry I got it wrong guys. Bye.
@kgreenmd.bsky.social Well, tonight really sucks but I will say, Davidson held up. It had the smallest % miss from my projection by a wide margin, turnout was actually dead on. The team canvassing Nashville did their job and more. Sadly there was not really a campaign in the rural areas.
December 3, 2025 at 3:29 AM
@kgreenmd.bsky.social Well, tonight really sucks but I will say, Davidson held up. It had the smallest % miss from my projection by a wide margin, turnout was actually dead on. The team canvassing Nashville did their job and more. Sadly there was not really a campaign in the rural areas.
@djsoke.bsky.social Yeah what happened compared to my projection is that nationalization did in fact pump up the rural numbers hard. I think because Aftyn had some bad moments caught on video but mainly they didn't campaign in rural/exurban areas and so nationalization hit them really bad.
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
@djsoke.bsky.social Yeah what happened compared to my projection is that nationalization did in fact pump up the rural numbers hard. I think because Aftyn had some bad moments caught on video but mainly they didn't campaign in rural/exurban areas and so nationalization hit them really bad.
@djsoke.bsky.social Votehub fucked up humphries lmao with like 95 votes in and Dems leading. NYT has the correct numbers.
December 3, 2025 at 1:25 AM
@djsoke.bsky.social Votehub fucked up humphries lmao with like 95 votes in and Dems leading. NYT has the correct numbers.
@djsoke.bsky.social So DCEC projected at least 20,000 in Davidson today, I'm told Montgomery is close. Will Williamson over perform? Are you read for the EV dump 30-60 minutes from now?
December 3, 2025 at 12:28 AM
@djsoke.bsky.social So DCEC projected at least 20,000 in Davidson today, I'm told Montgomery is close. Will Williamson over perform? Are you read for the EV dump 30-60 minutes from now?
@cashforcouncil.bsky.social Any idea how many locations had more than 2 voting machines today? Got a report of 345 out of one machine at Sylvan Design Center, trying to guess what that means. Does 18-3 have 3 or 4 or just 2?
December 2, 2025 at 11:37 PM
@cashforcouncil.bsky.social Any idea how many locations had more than 2 voting machines today? Got a report of 345 out of one machine at Sylvan Design Center, trying to guess what that means. Does 18-3 have 3 or 4 or just 2?
@djsoke.bsky.social Yo tell that little toddler boy Zachary here's no way his Davidson turnout number is right. He shoulda waited a couple years to get in the game, looks like he's 25.
December 2, 2025 at 11:36 PM
@djsoke.bsky.social Yo tell that little toddler boy Zachary here's no way his Davidson turnout number is right. He shoulda waited a couple years to get in the game, looks like he's 25.
@tnmouth.bsky.social What does "20k in Davidson" mean? you can't leave me hanging like that bro.
December 2, 2025 at 10:48 PM
@tnmouth.bsky.social What does "20k in Davidson" mean? you can't leave me hanging like that bro.
@cashforcouncil.bsky.social Apparently 18-3 has surpassed their 2024 election day number. So something like 1,200-1,400 at this point.
December 2, 2025 at 10:17 PM
@cashforcouncil.bsky.social Apparently 18-3 has surpassed their 2024 election day number. So something like 1,200-1,400 at this point.
@kgreenmd.bsky.social Any idea how Bordeaux is looking today? I have lots of very encouraging reports out of Sylvan, Morgan Park, Hillsboro West, Berry Hill, but almost nothing out of Bordeaux for w/e reason. Maybe Reddit is less popular there.
December 2, 2025 at 9:10 PM
@kgreenmd.bsky.social Any idea how Bordeaux is looking today? I have lots of very encouraging reports out of Sylvan, Morgan Park, Hillsboro West, Berry Hill, but almost nothing out of Bordeaux for w/e reason. Maybe Reddit is less popular there.
Looks like nearly 7,000 for Williamson in the first 7 hours. Will they speed up or slow down as the day drags on? Williamson isn't really urban so they could slow down a bit after blowing their load early.
December 2, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Looks like nearly 7,000 for Williamson in the first 7 hours. Will they speed up or slow down as the day drags on? Williamson isn't really urban so they could slow down a bit after blowing their load early.
@djsoke.bsky.social Is there primary EV and e-day data for TN-7? I can only see the precinct data for Davidson by total votes.
December 2, 2025 at 7:52 PM
@djsoke.bsky.social Is there primary EV and e-day data for TN-7? I can only see the precinct data for Davidson by total votes.
@djsoke.bsky.social Is anyone on Twitter looking at the race today? I don't see anything from the usual suspects.
Donnini or w/e said he'd do updates 4 hours ago but nothing so far.
Donnini or w/e said he'd do updates 4 hours ago but nothing so far.
December 2, 2025 at 7:15 PM
@djsoke.bsky.social Is anyone on Twitter looking at the race today? I don't see anything from the usual suspects.
Donnini or w/e said he'd do updates 4 hours ago but nothing so far.
Donnini or w/e said he'd do updates 4 hours ago but nothing so far.
I've heard Montgomery turnout is a bit slower than Davidson but still like to get more reports from people who voted today. Anyone vote or hear anything from someone who voted?
December 2, 2025 at 7:08 PM
I've heard Montgomery turnout is a bit slower than Davidson but still like to get more reports from people who voted today. Anyone vote or hear anything from someone who voted?
@cashforcouncil.bsky.social Any chance you know anyone voting today and can ask them to look at the vote counter on the voting machines or ask the precinct poll workers how busy it has been?
It *seems* like a high turnout in Nashville but the reports I've collected are pretty scattered.
It *seems* like a high turnout in Nashville but the reports I've collected are pretty scattered.
December 2, 2025 at 6:14 PM
@cashforcouncil.bsky.social Any chance you know anyone voting today and can ask them to look at the vote counter on the voting machines or ask the precinct poll workers how busy it has been?
It *seems* like a high turnout in Nashville but the reports I've collected are pretty scattered.
It *seems* like a high turnout in Nashville but the reports I've collected are pretty scattered.
Who has seen reports on bluesky or twitter about Nashville voting turnout?
Even better anyone got something rural? I've only seen Burns from Dickson.
Even better anyone got something rural? I've only seen Burns from Dickson.
December 2, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Who has seen reports on bluesky or twitter about Nashville voting turnout?
Even better anyone got something rural? I've only seen Burns from Dickson.
Even better anyone got something rural? I've only seen Burns from Dickson.
Reposted by Arcane Demesne
Attention Davidson Co. voters: You must be a resident of U.S. House District 7 to vote in today’s election.
• Check your voter registration card OR
• Check the TN District Lookup at bit.ly/4pwWOf3 OR
• Call us at (615) 862-8800
• Check your voter registration card OR
• Check the TN District Lookup at bit.ly/4pwWOf3 OR
• Call us at (615) 862-8800
Information Lookup
bit.ly
December 2, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Attention Davidson Co. voters: You must be a resident of U.S. House District 7 to vote in today’s election.
• Check your voter registration card OR
• Check the TN District Lookup at bit.ly/4pwWOf3 OR
• Call us at (615) 862-8800
• Check your voter registration card OR
• Check the TN District Lookup at bit.ly/4pwWOf3 OR
• Call us at (615) 862-8800
@fansofaftyn.bsky.social @aftynbehn.bsky.social As the first holder of the seat titled TN 7 was Same Houston, his version included Nashville apparently, I have to ask, how quick is Aftyn on the draw? At how many paces could she knock van Epps's MAGA hat off?
December 2, 2025 at 2:39 AM
@fansofaftyn.bsky.social @aftynbehn.bsky.social As the first holder of the seat titled TN 7 was Same Houston, his version included Nashville apparently, I have to ask, how quick is Aftyn on the draw? At how many paces could she knock van Epps's MAGA hat off?
@aftynbehn.bsky.social Solid speech from Al Gore. 8.5/10. AOC doing a good job right now. Probably a 9/10. Very generous of them to give a speech and try to turn out the vote so we can swap out a Trump chud for a real representative.
December 2, 2025 at 1:23 AM
@aftynbehn.bsky.social Solid speech from Al Gore. 8.5/10. AOC doing a good job right now. Probably a 9/10. Very generous of them to give a speech and try to turn out the vote so we can swap out a Trump chud for a real representative.
For those who care you can find my final prediction for the race on the Nashville reddit sub:
old.reddit.com/r/nashville/...
old.reddit.com/r/nashville/...
Final Prediction: Aftyn Behn +1%/+2% | Fancy Analysis Inside
So tomorrow is the day. Will the heroes triumph? Will the villains stave them off and plunge the realm into depressive darkness? Special elections...
old.reddit.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:34 PM
For those who care you can find my final prediction for the race on the Nashville reddit sub:
old.reddit.com/r/nashville/...
old.reddit.com/r/nashville/...
votehub.com/2025/12/01/t...
@aftynbehn.bsky.social @kgreenmd.bsky.social @indivisnashville.bsky.social
@aftynbehn.bsky.social @kgreenmd.bsky.social @indivisnashville.bsky.social
TN-07 Early Vote: Democrats Are Punching Above Their Weight
The Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election is tomorrow night, with Democrat Aftyn Behn facing Republican Matt Van Epps in a district Donald Trump carried by 22 points over Kamala Harris...
votehub.com
December 1, 2025 at 8:28 PM
We have a veritable winter wonderland up in Misery. Hopefully y'all in TN-7 will be similarly blessed.
December 1, 2025 at 7:35 PM
We have a veritable winter wonderland up in Misery. Hopefully y'all in TN-7 will be similarly blessed.
"Last Day of Campaigning the TN US CD 7 Special Election, here is where early voting stands: 72,723
GOP 46% / Dem 38.5% / Non-Partisan 15.3%
18-29 6% / 30-39 10% / 40-49 11.2% / 50-64 27.2% / 65+ 44.8% "
GOP 46% / Dem 38.5% / Non-Partisan 15.3%
18-29 6% / 30-39 10% / 40-49 11.2% / 50-64 27.2% / 65+ 44.8% "
December 1, 2025 at 4:36 PM
"Last Day of Campaigning the TN US CD 7 Special Election, here is where early voting stands: 72,723
GOP 46% / Dem 38.5% / Non-Partisan 15.3%
18-29 6% / 30-39 10% / 40-49 11.2% / 50-64 27.2% / 65+ 44.8% "
GOP 46% / Dem 38.5% / Non-Partisan 15.3%
18-29 6% / 30-39 10% / 40-49 11.2% / 50-64 27.2% / 65+ 44.8% "
@downtowncheribrown.bsky.social
The orange thing in the upper right corner is what google maps has for the address, you can see it is above the dashed red line indicating the TN-7 border down at the bottom, so it seems like it isn't in the district?
The orange thing in the upper right corner is what google maps has for the address, you can see it is above the dashed red line indicating the TN-7 border down at the bottom, so it seems like it isn't in the district?
December 1, 2025 at 4:05 PM
@downtowncheribrown.bsky.social
The orange thing in the upper right corner is what google maps has for the address, you can see it is above the dashed red line indicating the TN-7 border down at the bottom, so it seems like it isn't in the district?
The orange thing in the upper right corner is what google maps has for the address, you can see it is above the dashed red line indicating the TN-7 border down at the bottom, so it seems like it isn't in the district?
@aftynbehn.bsky.social @indivisibletn.bsky.social
The old classics still hit. Especially the 18 months part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtJu...
The old classics still hit. Especially the 18 months part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtJu...
Clint Webb for VP!
YouTube video by WKUK: Whitest Kids U’ Know
www.youtube.com
December 1, 2025 at 3:34 PM
@aftynbehn.bsky.social @indivisibletn.bsky.social
The old classics still hit. Especially the 18 months part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtJu...
The old classics still hit. Especially the 18 months part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtJu...