Anthony Painter
@anthonypainter.bsky.social
Policy. Political economy. Increasing bewilderment.
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
We have an immigration policy aimed at 2023 levels of migration when the numbers have already fallen to a healthy level given economic, public service, social needs.
We are going to massively over-steer.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
We are going to massively over-steer.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration drops sharply to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
The Office for National Statistics says the fall is driven by fewer non-EU nationals arriving for work and study, and a
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 12:20 PM
We have an immigration policy aimed at 2023 levels of migration when the numbers have already fallen to a healthy level given economic, public service, social needs.
We are going to massively over-steer.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
We are going to massively over-steer.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
Reposted by Anthony Painter
Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....
November 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....
Not sure fiercely defending houses worth over £2m whilst describing lifting 100,000s of kids out of poverty as "benefits street" is going to work as well for LOTO as she thinks.
November 26, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Not sure fiercely defending houses worth over £2m whilst describing lifting 100,000s of kids out of poverty as "benefits street" is going to work as well for LOTO as she thinks.
Reposted by Anthony Painter
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Lots of people in deciles four and above (significantly below median) are going to notice their net tax going up. I don't think the Government is wise to continually say it hasn't broken its manifesto pledge. Better to explain why (for perfectly good reasons including the "in-kind" public services).
November 26, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Lots of people in deciles four and above (significantly below median) are going to notice their net tax going up. I don't think the Government is wise to continually say it hasn't broken its manifesto pledge. Better to explain why (for perfectly good reasons including the "in-kind" public services).
Think Reeves can chalk this up as a win. A big win actually.
U.K 30 YEAR GILT YIELD DOWN 9.8 BPS TO 5.23%, IN BIGGEST ONE DAY FALL SINCE APRIL
November 26, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Think Reeves can chalk this up as a win. A big win actually.
Today's Budget won't be a disaster - a long way from it - and it will do some very important things like removing the two-child benefit cap.
It will also leave the structural predicament of the UK economy and state in place.
A fight for another day: the search for a sustainable model of growth.
It will also leave the structural predicament of the UK economy and state in place.
A fight for another day: the search for a sustainable model of growth.
November 26, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Today's Budget won't be a disaster - a long way from it - and it will do some very important things like removing the two-child benefit cap.
It will also leave the structural predicament of the UK economy and state in place.
A fight for another day: the search for a sustainable model of growth.
It will also leave the structural predicament of the UK economy and state in place.
A fight for another day: the search for a sustainable model of growth.
Maybe the White House will offer @rutgerbregman.com asylum for his freedom to refer to Trump's corruption being obstructed by the BBC?
November 25, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Maybe the White House will offer @rutgerbregman.com asylum for his freedom to refer to Trump's corruption being obstructed by the BBC?
In case you are wondering, this is dreadful. Basically makes the case Rome fell because of a refugee crisis. The whole thing is a superficial mess.
I'm not going to watch the episode on the fall of "samurai" (shogunate?!?) civilisation.
Painful viewing. Happy to help.
I'm not going to watch the episode on the fall of "samurai" (shogunate?!?) civilisation.
Painful viewing. Happy to help.
Civilisations: Rise and Fall review – TV that will make you despair for our own plummeting society
Civilisations: Rise and Fall review – TV that will make you despair for our own plummeting society
The mightily stressful and incredibly close-to-the-bone BBC show traces the demise of four ancient worlds – and it’s wildly prescient stuff. Will we never learn?
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:24 AM
In case you are wondering, this is dreadful. Basically makes the case Rome fell because of a refugee crisis. The whole thing is a superficial mess.
I'm not going to watch the episode on the fall of "samurai" (shogunate?!?) civilisation.
Painful viewing. Happy to help.
I'm not going to watch the episode on the fall of "samurai" (shogunate?!?) civilisation.
Painful viewing. Happy to help.
The problem with UK fiscal policy is low productivity, Brexit and a refusal of Chancellors to be straight with the public about what it costs to have the services they want.
None of this is the responsibility of the OBR.
If anything, they've been too accommodating.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
None of this is the responsibility of the OBR.
If anything, they've been too accommodating.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
The difficult question about how powerful the Budget watchdog is
Ahead of this week's Budget, some have accused the Office for Budget Responsibility of being a
www.bbc.co.uk
November 25, 2025 at 7:00 AM
The problem with UK fiscal policy is low productivity, Brexit and a refusal of Chancellors to be straight with the public about what it costs to have the services they want.
None of this is the responsibility of the OBR.
If anything, they've been too accommodating.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
None of this is the responsibility of the OBR.
If anything, they've been too accommodating.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
What's the opposite of the Overton window, where a mainstream concern such as restoring our relationship with the EU, is driven off the legitimate agenda by presenting a choice as an unchangeable reality?
There must be a snazzy polsci name for that. Because that's where we are.
There must be a snazzy polsci name for that. Because that's where we are.
She said the Office for Budget Responsibility’s report on Wednesday would conclude that a downgrade of productivity was down to Brexit and to the Conservative’s austerity measures – and would say explicitly that it was not due to the policies of the current government.
November 24, 2025 at 9:51 PM
What's the opposite of the Overton window, where a mainstream concern such as restoring our relationship with the EU, is driven off the legitimate agenda by presenting a choice as an unchangeable reality?
There must be a snazzy polsci name for that. Because that's where we are.
There must be a snazzy polsci name for that. Because that's where we are.
There are two polling questions on tax.
Do you support [x tax] on people who are not you? 60% support.
Do you support [y tax] on people like you? 25% support.
You don't even need to run the surveys- just drop the specific tax name into the above.
Do you support [x tax] on people who are not you? 60% support.
Do you support [y tax] on people like you? 25% support.
You don't even need to run the surveys- just drop the specific tax name into the above.
November 24, 2025 at 4:55 PM
There are two polling questions on tax.
Do you support [x tax] on people who are not you? 60% support.
Do you support [y tax] on people like you? 25% support.
You don't even need to run the surveys- just drop the specific tax name into the above.
Do you support [x tax] on people who are not you? 60% support.
Do you support [y tax] on people like you? 25% support.
You don't even need to run the surveys- just drop the specific tax name into the above.
One day we will stop this silly way of selling regulatory change. No, a single Arctic tern did not stop a nuclear power station being built and the quote itself shows that.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
!["The discovery of one Arctic tern in Anglesey 10 years ago was one of the factors that scuppered Hitachi's AP1000 [reactor] being built there. There were other problems as well, but that was the straw that broke the camel's back,” he said.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oabzqrmabjcgjz4e6fgkjdgn/bafkreia66pylx5rbwhew3ruxcta25dsctuwhudgpsazzwrtoqekrwm6v7q@jpeg)
November 24, 2025 at 7:34 AM
One day we will stop this silly way of selling regulatory change. No, a single Arctic tern did not stop a nuclear power station being built and the quote itself shows that.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
To be clear, this is a tariff on our own exports.
Yes, it will raise money - tariffs do. The question is whether it will also cut exports from one of our core economic strengths- HE.
Yes, it will raise money - tariffs do. The question is whether it will also cut exports from one of our core economic strengths- HE.
i: Reeves to unveil £600m raid on foreign student
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday
November 23, 2025 at 10:15 PM
To be clear, this is a tariff on our own exports.
Yes, it will raise money - tariffs do. The question is whether it will also cut exports from one of our core economic strengths- HE.
Yes, it will raise money - tariffs do. The question is whether it will also cut exports from one of our core economic strengths- HE.
The key to Blue Labour's influence is its understanding the sacred symbols of the Labour movement (which is a church-like organisation) and connecting them to middle class guilt and craving for working class authenticity.
It's very effective but utterly transparent when you observe it closely.
It's very effective but utterly transparent when you observe it closely.
November 23, 2025 at 8:28 PM
The key to Blue Labour's influence is its understanding the sacred symbols of the Labour movement (which is a church-like organisation) and connecting them to middle class guilt and craving for working class authenticity.
It's very effective but utterly transparent when you observe it closely.
It's very effective but utterly transparent when you observe it closely.
Fascinating piece - contends massively increased cost of infrastructure is down to wages (ie Baumol's cost disease). Second is things like "we don't want to kill workers" or "we won't just trust the engineer" anymore.
Via @crisortunity.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/nickmain...
Via @crisortunity.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/nickmain...
Hammersmith Bridge
Where did 25,000 vehicles go?
open.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Fascinating piece - contends massively increased cost of infrastructure is down to wages (ie Baumol's cost disease). Second is things like "we don't want to kill workers" or "we won't just trust the engineer" anymore.
Via @crisortunity.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/nickmain...
Via @crisortunity.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/nickmain...
I have spoken to five people who haven't seen the classic 1980s movie Lost Boys in the past 48 hours.
My world is dying.
(Biographical note: I worked in the fair in Lost Boys for a Summer so I take this personally- the film is essential for my origin story).
My world is dying.
(Biographical note: I worked in the fair in Lost Boys for a Summer so I take this personally- the film is essential for my origin story).
November 23, 2025 at 12:13 PM
I have spoken to five people who haven't seen the classic 1980s movie Lost Boys in the past 48 hours.
My world is dying.
(Biographical note: I worked in the fair in Lost Boys for a Summer so I take this personally- the film is essential for my origin story).
My world is dying.
(Biographical note: I worked in the fair in Lost Boys for a Summer so I take this personally- the film is essential for my origin story).
I don't think I've heard any single Government minister say anything of the nature of this from Brown in '97. (With the obvious exception of Ed Milliband).
If growth is not compatible with quality of life rather than just "abundance" or accumulation for the few then it is a destructive force.
If growth is not compatible with quality of life rather than just "abundance" or accumulation for the few then it is a destructive force.
Ironically, one of the first things that the Major administration did to attempt to restore its credibility after Black Wednesday was to implement the fuel price duty escalator both to raise revenue and to reduce emissions. In 1997 Brown said. All now seemingly forgotten.
November 23, 2025 at 8:11 AM
I don't think I've heard any single Government minister say anything of the nature of this from Brown in '97. (With the obvious exception of Ed Milliband).
If growth is not compatible with quality of life rather than just "abundance" or accumulation for the few then it is a destructive force.
If growth is not compatible with quality of life rather than just "abundance" or accumulation for the few then it is a destructive force.
Those who are pursuing increasingly racialised politics lecture the rest of us about how we are out of touch.
All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public.
Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.
All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public.
Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.
Why do people think England flags have been raised on lampposts?
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
November 23, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Those who are pursuing increasingly racialised politics lecture the rest of us about how we are out of touch.
All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public.
Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.
All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public.
Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.
"Needs additional work".
November 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
"Needs additional work".
Intriguing interview with Danny Kruger where he sees his opponents as naive and dangerous radicals wanting to see "socialist heaven" on earth.
Yet his traditionalism is the far more radical and idealistic vision with potential for enormous harm.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Yet his traditionalism is the far more radical and idealistic vision with potential for enormous harm.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
‘America is British’. Heaven is ‘a socialist state’. David Attenborough is ‘anti-human’ – the startling theories of Reform MP Danny Kruger
He was a Conservative party big-hitter who wrote speeches for David Cameron and worked with Boris Johnson before he suddenly jumped ship. He talks family, flags and why Nigel Farage is ‘top dog’
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Intriguing interview with Danny Kruger where he sees his opponents as naive and dangerous radicals wanting to see "socialist heaven" on earth.
Yet his traditionalism is the far more radical and idealistic vision with potential for enormous harm.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Yet his traditionalism is the far more radical and idealistic vision with potential for enormous harm.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Special dust particles to "turn down the sun".
The main purpose of start-ups such as this is not scientific. It's political: to have "frontier technologies" that allow us to pretend that we don't need to take action today.
And so science becomes anti science.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
The main purpose of start-ups such as this is not scientific. It's political: to have "frontier technologies" that allow us to pretend that we don't need to take action today.
And so science becomes anti science.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
The Strange and Totally Real Plan to Blot Out the Sun and Reverse Global Warming
A 25-person startup is developing technology to block the sun and turn down the planet’s thermostat. The stakes are huge — and the company and its critics say regulations need to catch up.
www.politico.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Special dust particles to "turn down the sun".
The main purpose of start-ups such as this is not scientific. It's political: to have "frontier technologies" that allow us to pretend that we don't need to take action today.
And so science becomes anti science.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
The main purpose of start-ups such as this is not scientific. It's political: to have "frontier technologies" that allow us to pretend that we don't need to take action today.
And so science becomes anti science.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
I blame Mark Ramprakash.
By the way, football fans, learn from this. Break the cycle. Resist the England pre-tournament hype. We can do this.
#ashes
www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/n...
By the way, football fans, learn from this. Break the cycle. Resist the England pre-tournament hype. We can do this.
#ashes
www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/n...
I can’t remember ever being so confident at the start of an away Ashes series | Mark Ramprakash
Australia have big injuries and concerns over their top order: if England start well in Perth they can win back the Ashes
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:44 AM
I blame Mark Ramprakash.
By the way, football fans, learn from this. Break the cycle. Resist the England pre-tournament hype. We can do this.
#ashes
www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/n...
By the way, football fans, learn from this. Break the cycle. Resist the England pre-tournament hype. We can do this.
#ashes
www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/n...
At what point do we get real that this US-Russia deal - because that is what it is - crosses a red line for non-US NATO. It leaves NATO countries forever vulnerable to security risk and even direct attack.
It is now time to get serious about a new European security agreement. This can't go on.
It is now time to get serious about a new European security agreement. This can't go on.
November 21, 2025 at 6:47 PM
At what point do we get real that this US-Russia deal - because that is what it is - crosses a red line for non-US NATO. It leaves NATO countries forever vulnerable to security risk and even direct attack.
It is now time to get serious about a new European security agreement. This can't go on.
It is now time to get serious about a new European security agreement. This can't go on.
November 21, 2025 at 9:13 AM