Anthony Painter
@anthonypainter.bsky.social
Policy. Political economy. Increasing bewilderment.
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
AI and productivity. Why it will disappoint for some time yet...
Only "high performers" - only 5% of businesses - have had "transformative" business change from AI.
What's more, these businesses are very likely to be AI businesses anyhow. Business model drives AI rather than vice versa.
Only "high performers" - only 5% of businesses - have had "transformative" business change from AI.
What's more, these businesses are very likely to be AI businesses anyhow. Business model drives AI rather than vice versa.
November 19, 2025 at 9:22 AM
AI and productivity. Why it will disappoint for some time yet...
Only "high performers" - only 5% of businesses - have had "transformative" business change from AI.
What's more, these businesses are very likely to be AI businesses anyhow. Business model drives AI rather than vice versa.
Only "high performers" - only 5% of businesses - have had "transformative" business change from AI.
What's more, these businesses are very likely to be AI businesses anyhow. Business model drives AI rather than vice versa.
One day a Fenland Springsteen will do an album like this about Cambs in November and then you'll all be sorry.
November 19, 2025 at 9:12 AM
One day a Fenland Springsteen will do an album like this about Cambs in November and then you'll all be sorry.
Happened to be in Brum tonight at a loose end and managed to stumble on @politicaltherapy.bsky.social. @jamesbloodworth.bsky.social taking us through the disturbing aspects of the manosphere. Great upstairs room in the pub politics done right.
November 18, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Happened to be in Brum tonight at a loose end and managed to stumble on @politicaltherapy.bsky.social. @jamesbloodworth.bsky.social taking us through the disturbing aspects of the manosphere. Great upstairs room in the pub politics done right.
Net migration is now basically at a sensible level for the UK given our labour market needs.
But the politics is still as if we were at 2023 levels.
And it's falling fast still. We are very likely overcompensating.
But the politics is still as if we were at 2023 levels.
And it's falling fast still. We are very likely overcompensating.
November 18, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Net migration is now basically at a sensible level for the UK given our labour market needs.
But the politics is still as if we were at 2023 levels.
And it's falling fast still. We are very likely overcompensating.
But the politics is still as if we were at 2023 levels.
And it's falling fast still. We are very likely overcompensating.
I'd love to hear a lawyer's view on this. But the notion that you can deny the right to a family life *by default* and it still remain a right seems very shaky.
There will surely be a heavy burden of evidence on the Government for such a "public interest" (as opposed to "public opinion") claim.
There will surely be a heavy burden of evidence on the Government for such a "public interest" (as opposed to "public opinion") claim.
November 18, 2025 at 6:50 AM
I'd love to hear a lawyer's view on this. But the notion that you can deny the right to a family life *by default* and it still remain a right seems very shaky.
There will surely be a heavy burden of evidence on the Government for such a "public interest" (as opposed to "public opinion") claim.
There will surely be a heavy burden of evidence on the Government for such a "public interest" (as opposed to "public opinion") claim.
What I find so depressing about this idea is that if there was ever an obvious argument for coherent, consistent industrial policy it's heating transition.
And whoever is briefing "middle class people can afford them anyway" doesn't understand behavioral economics or the nature of systemic change.
And whoever is briefing "middle class people can afford them anyway" doesn't understand behavioral economics or the nature of systemic change.
November 13, 2025 at 7:57 PM
What I find so depressing about this idea is that if there was ever an obvious argument for coherent, consistent industrial policy it's heating transition.
And whoever is briefing "middle class people can afford them anyway" doesn't understand behavioral economics or the nature of systemic change.
And whoever is briefing "middle class people can afford them anyway" doesn't understand behavioral economics or the nature of systemic change.
What on earth is this nonsense from a Blue Labour MP?
What, you want a policy targeting zero illness, no full time caring responsibilities, no skills mismatches or career breaks and you think we should heavily crack down on migration until we get there?
Just not serious policy/politics.
What, you want a policy targeting zero illness, no full time caring responsibilities, no skills mismatches or career breaks and you think we should heavily crack down on migration until we get there?
Just not serious policy/politics.
November 12, 2025 at 2:43 PM
What on earth is this nonsense from a Blue Labour MP?
What, you want a policy targeting zero illness, no full time caring responsibilities, no skills mismatches or career breaks and you think we should heavily crack down on migration until we get there?
Just not serious policy/politics.
What, you want a policy targeting zero illness, no full time caring responsibilities, no skills mismatches or career breaks and you think we should heavily crack down on migration until we get there?
Just not serious policy/politics.
Yet more evidence for my pothole theory of populism.
Some of the BBC's reporting on Epping etc was ropey but this is good. Captures the generational divide over culture and politics well. Everyone despairs at Britain and each other. via @martinhwheatley.bsky.social
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Some of the BBC's reporting on Epping etc was ropey but this is good. Captures the generational divide over culture and politics well. Everyone despairs at Britain and each other. via @martinhwheatley.bsky.social
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
October 28, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Yet more evidence for my pothole theory of populism.
Some of the BBC's reporting on Epping etc was ropey but this is good. Captures the generational divide over culture and politics well. Everyone despairs at Britain and each other. via @martinhwheatley.bsky.social
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Some of the BBC's reporting on Epping etc was ropey but this is good. Captures the generational divide over culture and politics well. Everyone despairs at Britain and each other. via @martinhwheatley.bsky.social
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
I'm old enough to remember "latch-key" kids. The moral panic in the 80s was kids having *far too much" play time.
Then it was TV, abduction, gaming, sex and violence in movies, murder by delinquents, drugs....
If I were American I'd worry far more about guns and cars stealing outdoor space....
Then it was TV, abduction, gaming, sex and violence in movies, murder by delinquents, drugs....
If I were American I'd worry far more about guns and cars stealing outdoor space....
October 23, 2025 at 8:59 AM
I'm old enough to remember "latch-key" kids. The moral panic in the 80s was kids having *far too much" play time.
Then it was TV, abduction, gaming, sex and violence in movies, murder by delinquents, drugs....
If I were American I'd worry far more about guns and cars stealing outdoor space....
Then it was TV, abduction, gaming, sex and violence in movies, murder by delinquents, drugs....
If I were American I'd worry far more about guns and cars stealing outdoor space....
A letter from the age of truth. Bertrand Russell to Oswald Mosley. We need more of this in our public discourse. Call vile ideologies and the people who peddle them out for who and what they are.
October 22, 2025 at 7:00 PM
A letter from the age of truth. Bertrand Russell to Oswald Mosley. We need more of this in our public discourse. Call vile ideologies and the people who peddle them out for who and what they are.
And, oh look, the Greeks have blocked a deal on taxing climate emissions from shipping backing Trump. And what do they point to in defence... the article above in the FT. Pretty cynical stuff.
October 21, 2025 at 6:52 PM
And, oh look, the Greeks have blocked a deal on taxing climate emissions from shipping backing Trump. And what do they point to in defence... the article above in the FT. Pretty cynical stuff.
This is a welcome quote from Reeves. It doesn't hide behind "the way in which we left the EU" implying there was a good way to leave when there wasn't. It names Brexit directly.
Now we are naming Voldemort we can confront him directly.
Now we are naming Voldemort we can confront him directly.
![We also know – and the OBR, I think, is going to be pretty frank about this [in its next report on the state of the economy, published to coincide with the budget on 26 November] that things like austerity, the cuts to capital spending and Brexit, have had a bigger impact on our economy than even was projected back then.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oabzqrmabjcgjz4e6fgkjdgn/bafkreihjtb6wz3swb44iaiwwh57qi5kqxnbmf7ytylmdp5k4nn6lwzvqim@jpeg)
October 21, 2025 at 11:35 AM
This is a welcome quote from Reeves. It doesn't hide behind "the way in which we left the EU" implying there was a good way to leave when there wasn't. It names Brexit directly.
Now we are naming Voldemort we can confront him directly.
Now we are naming Voldemort we can confront him directly.
A frankly astonishing assertion by the Greek PM in the FT that the EU has been prioritising decarbonisation above all else.
I think we all know where this way of thinking leads. Net Zero becomes an afterthought with catastrophic consequences. Slippery slope.
I think we all know where this way of thinking leads. Net Zero becomes an afterthought with catastrophic consequences. Slippery slope.
October 20, 2025 at 6:54 PM
A frankly astonishing assertion by the Greek PM in the FT that the EU has been prioritising decarbonisation above all else.
I think we all know where this way of thinking leads. Net Zero becomes an afterthought with catastrophic consequences. Slippery slope.
I think we all know where this way of thinking leads. Net Zero becomes an afterthought with catastrophic consequences. Slippery slope.
The Education Secretary is delivering a statement on post-16 skills.
Which the BBC parses into a statement on "universities".
And that, in a nutshell, is the problem we have.
We need great universities *and* a great universal skills system. We have the former.
Which the BBC parses into a statement on "universities".
And that, in a nutshell, is the problem we have.
We need great universities *and* a great universal skills system. We have the former.
October 20, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The Education Secretary is delivering a statement on post-16 skills.
Which the BBC parses into a statement on "universities".
And that, in a nutshell, is the problem we have.
We need great universities *and* a great universal skills system. We have the former.
Which the BBC parses into a statement on "universities".
And that, in a nutshell, is the problem we have.
We need great universities *and* a great universal skills system. We have the former.
I mean, this on a Sunday morning, just outside the city, runners, cyclists, dog walkers all around. This has to be the future and it's completely compatible with housing density. But there are trade offs - you do have to plan effectively, you can't just leave it to the market.
October 19, 2025 at 8:16 AM
I mean, this on a Sunday morning, just outside the city, runners, cyclists, dog walkers all around. This has to be the future and it's completely compatible with housing density. But there are trade offs - you do have to plan effectively, you can't just leave it to the market.
Feeling a lot of love for Brum at the moment for some reason.
October 18, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Feeling a lot of love for Brum at the moment for some reason.
Paid paternity leave or similar across the world. Not great are we? Yes, there are mechanisms to share parental leave but nonetheless.
No prizes for guessing which parent carries the heaviest burden of this.
(Via @heejungchung.bsky.social )
No prizes for guessing which parent carries the heaviest burden of this.
(Via @heejungchung.bsky.social )
October 17, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Paid paternity leave or similar across the world. Not great are we? Yes, there are mechanisms to share parental leave but nonetheless.
No prizes for guessing which parent carries the heaviest burden of this.
(Via @heejungchung.bsky.social )
No prizes for guessing which parent carries the heaviest burden of this.
(Via @heejungchung.bsky.social )
We need market housing *and* affordable housing.
See homelessness figures (and no the market doesn't magically sort this).
And if private developers can just go on strike then we will have very bad outcomes.
Yes, unjam the bureaucracy. But we also need to shift the system to a strategic one.
See homelessness figures (and no the market doesn't magically sort this).
And if private developers can just go on strike then we will have very bad outcomes.
Yes, unjam the bureaucracy. But we also need to shift the system to a strategic one.
October 17, 2025 at 6:19 AM
We need market housing *and* affordable housing.
See homelessness figures (and no the market doesn't magically sort this).
And if private developers can just go on strike then we will have very bad outcomes.
Yes, unjam the bureaucracy. But we also need to shift the system to a strategic one.
See homelessness figures (and no the market doesn't magically sort this).
And if private developers can just go on strike then we will have very bad outcomes.
Yes, unjam the bureaucracy. But we also need to shift the system to a strategic one.
Oops. The Guardian forced to backtrack on a pretty mean-spirited review of Blue Lights series 3. It's cracking TV.
October 16, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Oops. The Guardian forced to backtrack on a pretty mean-spirited review of Blue Lights series 3. It's cracking TV.
And some signs we may be seeing that in investment data?
October 12, 2025 at 10:39 AM
And some signs we may be seeing that in investment data?
This from Gidron and Hall summarised things beautifully.
The false prophets are Blue Labour and "abundance". Both seek to undermine the vital mechanism for progressive change: the case for government.
There are better ways.
The false prophets are Blue Labour and "abundance". Both seek to undermine the vital mechanism for progressive change: the case for government.
There are better ways.
October 11, 2025 at 8:09 AM
This from Gidron and Hall summarised things beautifully.
The false prophets are Blue Labour and "abundance". Both seek to undermine the vital mechanism for progressive change: the case for government.
There are better ways.
The false prophets are Blue Labour and "abundance". Both seek to undermine the vital mechanism for progressive change: the case for government.
There are better ways.
This doesn't feel that "peace-y".....
October 10, 2025 at 3:32 PM
This doesn't feel that "peace-y".....