Aleksander Molak
@alxndrmlk.bsky.social
"The Causal Guy" http://causalpython.io
Author || Advisor || Educator
Host at http://CausalBanditsPodcast.com
Causal ML Tutor @ Uni of Oxford
CausalSky: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:imz3rf35poonl7yxt7bogui4/feed/aaamrclcu3tfa
Author || Advisor || Educator
Host at http://CausalBanditsPodcast.com
Causal ML Tutor @ Uni of Oxford
CausalSky: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:imz3rf35poonl7yxt7bogui4/feed/aaamrclcu3tfa
How would you approach a causal modeling problem where precise spatial (longitude and latitude) and temporal data is available?
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
November 10, 2025 at 9:39 AM
How would you approach a causal modeling problem where precise spatial (longitude and latitude) and temporal data is available?
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Bandits, Spillover Effects, Carry-Overs, and...
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
November 9, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Bandits, Spillover Effects, Carry-Overs, and...
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
November 8, 2025 at 9:30 AM
November 7, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Did you know that @dagophile.bsky.social has this great series of videos on causality?
I really enjoy them!
#CausalSky #StatSky
I really enjoy them!
#CausalSky #StatSky
What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it.
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
How to make sense of probabilities over causal parameters
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
November 6, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Did you know that @dagophile.bsky.social has this great series of videos on causality?
I really enjoy them!
#CausalSky #StatSky
I really enjoy them!
#CausalSky #StatSky
⛓️💥 AI: Regulate or Let it Make a Splash?
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
November 6, 2025 at 9:30 AM
⛓️💥 AI: Regulate or Let it Make a Splash?
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
🧠 AI's Big Problem: Does It Understand the Consequences?
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
November 5, 2025 at 9:30 AM
🧠 AI's Big Problem: Does It Understand the Consequences?
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
For the last 50 years, we've designed cars to be safe...
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
November 5, 2025 at 8:16 AM
For the last 50 years, we've designed cars to be safe...
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
AI: Is Moral Reasoning Possible Without Causal Reasoning?
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
November 3, 2025 at 9:30 AM
AI: Is Moral Reasoning Possible Without Causal Reasoning?
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery?
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
November 2, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery?
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
For the last 24 months, I've been waiting patiently for LLMs to take my data science job...
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
October 31, 2025 at 9:29 AM
For the last 24 months, I've been waiting patiently for LLMs to take my data science job...
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's the Hassle with Positivity?
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
October 27, 2025 at 9:30 AM
What's the Hassle with Positivity?
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Is a decision rule the same as a world model?
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
October 26, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Is a decision rule the same as a world model?
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
The program for #CDSM2025 is now live! Join us online this November for two days of talks and discussions on #Causality, #DataScience, and #AI. 🚨👇
🎉 The program for this year's Causal Data Science Meeting (#CDSM2025) is now live!
📅 Nov 12–13, 2025 | 💻 Online | 🎟️ Free registration
Join us for two days of talks and debates at the intersection of causality, data science, and AI.
👉 causalscience.org
📅 Nov 12–13, 2025 | 💻 Online | 🎟️ Free registration
Join us for two days of talks and debates at the intersection of causality, data science, and AI.
👉 causalscience.org
October 23, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Building DAGs for supply chain: always fun, sometimes a challenge
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
October 22, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Building DAGs for supply chain: always fun, sometimes a challenge
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
Can 5g of creatine improve your IQ scores?
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
October 22, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Can 5g of creatine improve your IQ scores?
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Causal discovery too computationally expensive?
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
October 20, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Causal discovery too computationally expensive?
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Have you ever wondered what causality really is?
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
October 19, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Have you ever wondered what causality really is?
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
Looking for a causality-related PhD program?
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social might have something for you!
#CausalSky #StatSky
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social might have something for you!
#CausalSky #StatSky
The Causality in Cognition Lab at Stanford University is recruiting PhD students this cycle!
We are a supportive team who happened to wear bluesky appropriate colors for the lab photo (this wasn't planned). 💙
Lab info: cicl.stanford.edu
Application details: psychology.stanford.edu/admissions/p...
We are a supportive team who happened to wear bluesky appropriate colors for the lab photo (this wasn't planned). 💙
Lab info: cicl.stanford.edu
Application details: psychology.stanford.edu/admissions/p...
October 18, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Looking for a causality-related PhD program?
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social might have something for you!
#CausalSky #StatSky
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social might have something for you!
#CausalSky #StatSky
"Win rate" or "learning rate"?
Our colleagues in the A/B testing community often focus on the "winners" and "wins"
"Winners" are experiments that demonstrate statistically significant "positive" impact of a tested intervention on the metric of interest as compared to...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky
Our colleagues in the A/B testing community often focus on the "winners" and "wins"
"Winners" are experiments that demonstrate statistically significant "positive" impact of a tested intervention on the metric of interest as compared to...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky
October 17, 2025 at 8:29 AM
"Win rate" or "learning rate"?
Our colleagues in the A/B testing community often focus on the "winners" and "wins"
"Winners" are experiments that demonstrate statistically significant "positive" impact of a tested intervention on the metric of interest as compared to...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky
Our colleagues in the A/B testing community often focus on the "winners" and "wins"
"Winners" are experiments that demonstrate statistically significant "positive" impact of a tested intervention on the metric of interest as compared to...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky
Substance or hype?
The relationship between politics & science is often complex & multidimensional
But one thing almost certainly happens when politicians decide to use the outcomes of the scientific process to support their causes:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #autism
@causalab.bsky.social
The relationship between politics & science is often complex & multidimensional
But one thing almost certainly happens when politicians decide to use the outcomes of the scientific process to support their causes:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #autism
@causalab.bsky.social
October 15, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Substance or hype?
The relationship between politics & science is often complex & multidimensional
But one thing almost certainly happens when politicians decide to use the outcomes of the scientific process to support their causes:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #autism
@causalab.bsky.social
The relationship between politics & science is often complex & multidimensional
But one thing almost certainly happens when politicians decide to use the outcomes of the scientific process to support their causes:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #autism
@causalab.bsky.social
October 13, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Hard problems?
In this week's issue you will find discussions on 2 of these and more:
1. David Rohde shares his perspective on causal attribution in "multi-turn" problems
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
In this week's issue you will find discussions on 2 of these and more:
1. David Rohde shares his perspective on causal attribution in "multi-turn" problems
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
October 12, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Hard problems?
In this week's issue you will find discussions on 2 of these and more:
1. David Rohde shares his perspective on causal attribution in "multi-turn" problems
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
In this week's issue you will find discussions on 2 of these and more:
1. David Rohde shares his perspective on causal attribution in "multi-turn" problems
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Free event: Harvard's @causalab.bsky.social on:
The Causal perspective on Autism and Tylenol
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSKy
The Causal perspective on Autism and Tylenol
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSKy
You're invited! ✉️
20th Kolokotrones Symposium: “Acetaminophen During Pregnancy and Autism: What Does Causal Inference Take?"
Details in comments. In-person limited to Harvard ID holders due to space restrictions. Online attendance free & public.
Register:
www.eventbrite.com/e/acetaminop...
20th Kolokotrones Symposium: “Acetaminophen During Pregnancy and Autism: What Does Causal Inference Take?"
Details in comments. In-person limited to Harvard ID holders due to space restrictions. Online attendance free & public.
Register:
www.eventbrite.com/e/acetaminop...
October 10, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Free event: Harvard's @causalab.bsky.social on:
The Causal perspective on Autism and Tylenol
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSKy
The Causal perspective on Autism and Tylenol
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSKy