Aleksander Molak
@alxndrmlk.bsky.social
"The Causal Guy" http://causalpython.io
Author || Advisor || Educator
Host at http://CausalBanditsPodcast.com
Causal ML Tutor @ Uni of Oxford
CausalSky: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:imz3rf35poonl7yxt7bogui4/feed/aaamrclcu3tfa
Author || Advisor || Educator
Host at http://CausalBanditsPodcast.com
Causal ML Tutor @ Uni of Oxford
CausalSky: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:imz3rf35poonl7yxt7bogui4/feed/aaamrclcu3tfa
How would you approach a causal modeling problem where precise spatial (longitude and latitude) and temporal data is available?
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
November 10, 2025 at 9:39 AM
How would you approach a causal modeling problem where precise spatial (longitude and latitude) and temporal data is available?
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Bandits, Spillover Effects, Carry-Overs, and...
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
November 9, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Bandits, Spillover Effects, Carry-Overs, and...
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
November 8, 2025 at 9:30 AM
November 7, 2025 at 9:30 AM
⛓️💥 AI: Regulate or Let it Make a Splash?
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
November 6, 2025 at 9:30 AM
⛓️💥 AI: Regulate or Let it Make a Splash?
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
🧠 AI's Big Problem: Does It Understand the Consequences?
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
November 5, 2025 at 9:30 AM
🧠 AI's Big Problem: Does It Understand the Consequences?
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
For the last 50 years, we've designed cars to be safe...
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
November 5, 2025 at 8:16 AM
For the last 50 years, we've designed cars to be safe...
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
AI: Is Moral Reasoning Possible Without Causal Reasoning?
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
November 3, 2025 at 9:30 AM
AI: Is Moral Reasoning Possible Without Causal Reasoning?
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery?
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
November 2, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery?
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
For the last 24 months, I've been waiting patiently for LLMs to take my data science job...
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
October 31, 2025 at 9:29 AM
For the last 24 months, I've been waiting patiently for LLMs to take my data science job...
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's the Hassle with Positivity?
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
October 27, 2025 at 9:30 AM
What's the Hassle with Positivity?
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Is a decision rule the same as a world model?
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
October 26, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Is a decision rule the same as a world model?
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
Building DAGs for supply chain: always fun, sometimes a challenge
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
October 22, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Building DAGs for supply chain: always fun, sometimes a challenge
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
Can 5g of creatine improve your IQ scores?
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
October 22, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Can 5g of creatine improve your IQ scores?
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Causal discovery too computationally expensive?
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
October 20, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Causal discovery too computationally expensive?
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Have you ever wondered what causality really is?
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
October 19, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Have you ever wondered what causality really is?
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
"Win rate" or "learning rate"?
Our colleagues in the A/B testing community often focus on the "winners" and "wins"
"Winners" are experiments that demonstrate statistically significant "positive" impact of a tested intervention on the metric of interest as compared to...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky
Our colleagues in the A/B testing community often focus on the "winners" and "wins"
"Winners" are experiments that demonstrate statistically significant "positive" impact of a tested intervention on the metric of interest as compared to...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky
October 17, 2025 at 8:29 AM
"Win rate" or "learning rate"?
Our colleagues in the A/B testing community often focus on the "winners" and "wins"
"Winners" are experiments that demonstrate statistically significant "positive" impact of a tested intervention on the metric of interest as compared to...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky
Our colleagues in the A/B testing community often focus on the "winners" and "wins"
"Winners" are experiments that demonstrate statistically significant "positive" impact of a tested intervention on the metric of interest as compared to...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky
Substance or hype?
The relationship between politics & science is often complex & multidimensional
But one thing almost certainly happens when politicians decide to use the outcomes of the scientific process to support their causes:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #autism
@causalab.bsky.social
The relationship between politics & science is often complex & multidimensional
But one thing almost certainly happens when politicians decide to use the outcomes of the scientific process to support their causes:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #autism
@causalab.bsky.social
October 15, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Substance or hype?
The relationship between politics & science is often complex & multidimensional
But one thing almost certainly happens when politicians decide to use the outcomes of the scientific process to support their causes:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #autism
@causalab.bsky.social
The relationship between politics & science is often complex & multidimensional
But one thing almost certainly happens when politicians decide to use the outcomes of the scientific process to support their causes:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #autism
@causalab.bsky.social
October 13, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Hard problems?
In this week's issue you will find discussions on 2 of these and more:
1. David Rohde shares his perspective on causal attribution in "multi-turn" problems
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
In this week's issue you will find discussions on 2 of these and more:
1. David Rohde shares his perspective on causal attribution in "multi-turn" problems
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
October 12, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Hard problems?
In this week's issue you will find discussions on 2 of these and more:
1. David Rohde shares his perspective on causal attribution in "multi-turn" problems
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
In this week's issue you will find discussions on 2 of these and more:
1. David Rohde shares his perspective on causal attribution in "multi-turn" problems
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
"A picture agrees with reality or not; it is correct or incorrect; true or false."**
It's 1921. A former volunteer soldier who served in an Austrian artillery regiment publishes his first book.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #PhiloSky #MLSky
It's 1921. A former volunteer soldier who served in an Austrian artillery regiment publishes his first book.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #PhiloSky #MLSky
October 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
"A picture agrees with reality or not; it is correct or incorrect; true or false."**
It's 1921. A former volunteer soldier who served in an Austrian artillery regiment publishes his first book.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #PhiloSky #MLSky
It's 1921. A former volunteer soldier who served in an Austrian artillery regiment publishes his first book.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #PhiloSky #MLSky
"I like to think about causality as a spectrum"
Yesterday, Miguel Hernán shared with us experiences and lessons he learned while advising the Spanish government during the COVID-19 pandemic
I also like the perspective of "causality as a spectrum" and find it very useful in practice
1/
#CausalSky
Yesterday, Miguel Hernán shared with us experiences and lessons he learned while advising the Spanish government during the COVID-19 pandemic
I also like the perspective of "causality as a spectrum" and find it very useful in practice
1/
#CausalSky
October 8, 2025 at 9:29 AM
"I like to think about causality as a spectrum"
Yesterday, Miguel Hernán shared with us experiences and lessons he learned while advising the Spanish government during the COVID-19 pandemic
I also like the perspective of "causality as a spectrum" and find it very useful in practice
1/
#CausalSky
Yesterday, Miguel Hernán shared with us experiences and lessons he learned while advising the Spanish government during the COVID-19 pandemic
I also like the perspective of "causality as a spectrum" and find it very useful in practice
1/
#CausalSky
12 Challenges for the Next Decade
One of causal inference’s main strengths is also one of its biggest curses.
Causal inference is an interdisciplinary field and as such, it has greatly benefited from contributions from...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #CausalInference
One of causal inference’s main strengths is also one of its biggest curses.
Causal inference is an interdisciplinary field and as such, it has greatly benefited from contributions from...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #CausalInference
October 6, 2025 at 8:29 AM
12 Challenges for the Next Decade
One of causal inference’s main strengths is also one of its biggest curses.
Causal inference is an interdisciplinary field and as such, it has greatly benefited from contributions from...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #CausalInference
One of causal inference’s main strengths is also one of its biggest curses.
Causal inference is an interdisciplinary field and as such, it has greatly benefited from contributions from...
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #CausalInference
What are the biggest challenges for causal inference?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly ( causalpython.io ):
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #StatSky
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly ( causalpython.io ):
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #StatSky
October 5, 2025 at 9:05 AM
What are the biggest challenges for causal inference?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly ( causalpython.io ):
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #StatSky
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly ( causalpython.io ):
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #StatSky