Alexander Graef
@alxgraef.bsky.social
Senior Policy Fellow | ELN | Russia-West | Security | Strategy | fmr ACONA Fellow | fmr IFSH | PhD International Affairs HSG | views mine.
Delighted that we are able to publish this important policy brief by Ben Dandy, @kjolvegeland.bsky.social and Sebastian Schritte on using seismic-acoustic sensors and related analyses for ceasefire monitoring. Highly relevant and innovative. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...
Widening the ceasefire toolkit: The promise of geophysical monitoring in Ukraine and beyond
Any monitoring mission deployed to observe an end to the hostilities in Ukraine is likely to incorporate a range of remote-sensing technologies to support its verification activities. Drawing on insig...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
October 17, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Delighted that we are able to publish this important policy brief by Ben Dandy, @kjolvegeland.bsky.social and Sebastian Schritte on using seismic-acoustic sensors and related analyses for ceasefire monitoring. Highly relevant and innovative. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...
The FT story about Alaska does not come as a surprise. Trump is transactional; Putin less so - but certainly not on Ukraine. Trump clearly expected a deal, but got a long history lesson instead. Aggrieved, he adjusted his policies, but no new principles emerged. The transactional mindset persists.
October 17, 2025 at 10:48 PM
The FT story about Alaska does not come as a surprise. Trump is transactional; Putin less so - but certainly not on Ukraine. Trump clearly expected a deal, but got a long history lesson instead. Aggrieved, he adjusted his policies, but no new principles emerged. The transactional mindset persists.
Reposted by Alexander Graef
With some interesting nuggets:
Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles
Fourteen months on, with a new U.S. administration in charge, officials in Berlin believe a Biden-era plan to send an Army unit with such arms is still on.
www.defensenews.com
September 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
With some interesting nuggets:
Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
The US presence at #Zapad in Belarus is not unexpected, given the mini-rapprochement between both states in recent months. In 2021, the US, along a couple of more states were also invited by #Belarus, though #Russia did not invite #NATO states. 1/5
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
US military officers observe Russia-Belarus war games as Trump gets closer to Minsk
U.S. military officers observed joint war games between Russia and Belarus on Monday for the first time since Moscow used Belarus as a launchpad to enter Ukraine, as U.S. President Donald Trump deepens ties with Moscow's closest ally.
www.reuters.com
September 16, 2025 at 3:17 AM
The US presence at #Zapad in Belarus is not unexpected, given the mini-rapprochement between both states in recent months. In 2021, the US, along a couple of more states were also invited by #Belarus, though #Russia did not invite #NATO states. 1/5
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
"Exercises are also instruments of strategic communication, intended to shape perceptions, signal resolve, and strengthen deterrence. The real challenge is reading them correctly. This is where confidence- and security-building measures may help" 1/2
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...
Not so quiet on the Western Front: Why Russia’s Zapad exercise highlights the need for military confidence-building measures
Russia’s strategic exercise Zapad, which begins later this week, is not only about combat preparation; it is also an instrument of strategic communication. The real challenge is reading it correctly. ...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
September 9, 2025 at 8:40 AM
"Exercises are also instruments of strategic communication, intended to shape perceptions, signal resolve, and strengthen deterrence. The real challenge is reading them correctly. This is where confidence- and security-building measures may help" 1/2
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...
Habe mit dem @derstandard.at über die strategische Lage in der Ukraine gesprochen: 'Der möglich, zukünftige Einsatz von Systemen wie Flamingo setzt Moskau unter Druck, aber es ist auch klar, dass RU alles versuchen wird, diese Entwicklung präemptiv zu verhindern'
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
August 31, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Habe mit dem @derstandard.at über die strategische Lage in der Ukraine gesprochen: 'Der möglich, zukünftige Einsatz von Systemen wie Flamingo setzt Moskau unter Druck, aber es ist auch klar, dass RU alles versuchen wird, diese Entwicklung präemptiv zu verhindern'
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
Reposted by Alexander Graef
Presenting an early draft of a paper by @alxgraef.bsky.social and myself at EISA PEC.
August 24, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Presenting an early draft of a paper by @alxgraef.bsky.social and myself at EISA PEC.
Arms control has a bad image mainly because people conflate it with unilateral disarmament or frame it as the opposite of deterrence. The less they understand it, the more they fall for these fallacies.
July 12, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Arms control has a bad image mainly because people conflate it with unilateral disarmament or frame it as the opposite of deterrence. The less they understand it, the more they fall for these fallacies.
Excited to join the European Leadership Network as Senior Policy Fellow for Russia–West relations in tense times, working to address escalation risks.
🎉 We are delighted to welcome Dr. Alexander Graef to @theeln.bsky.social as our Russia-West Senior Policy Fellow.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/alexa...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/alexa...
July 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Excited to join the European Leadership Network as Senior Policy Fellow for Russia–West relations in tense times, working to address escalation risks.
Der Inspekteur des Heeres General Alfons Mais sagt bei maybritillner, Russland ziehe jährlich 200.000 Wehrpflichtige ein. Außerdem sei die Wehrpflicht kürzlich von 1 auf 2 Jahre erhöht worden. Das Problem: Beides stimmt nicht.
youtu.be/ioG_cGQI4qI?...
1/10
youtu.be/ioG_cGQI4qI?...
1/10
Krieg oder Frieden – Sicherheit nur mit den USA? | maybrit illner vom 26. Juni 2025
YouTube video by ZDFheute Nachrichten
youtu.be
June 29, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Der Inspekteur des Heeres General Alfons Mais sagt bei maybritillner, Russland ziehe jährlich 200.000 Wehrpflichtige ein. Außerdem sei die Wehrpflicht kürzlich von 1 auf 2 Jahre erhöht worden. Das Problem: Beides stimmt nicht.
youtu.be/ioG_cGQI4qI?...
1/10
youtu.be/ioG_cGQI4qI?...
1/10
Reposted by Alexander Graef
🧵 1/4 Heeresinspekteur Alfons Mais zur #Rüstung u. künftigen Kampfweise der Landstreitkräfte im Behördenspiegel. Darstellung sehr diffus. Vlt. hat der eine oder andere sinnvolle Hinweise zur Einordnung.
„Im dt. Heer 2035 plus wird Abstandsfähigkeit konsequent höher priorisiert als Duellfähigkeit.“
„Im dt. Heer 2035 plus wird Abstandsfähigkeit konsequent höher priorisiert als Duellfähigkeit.“
June 2, 2025 at 5:50 PM
🧵 1/4 Heeresinspekteur Alfons Mais zur #Rüstung u. künftigen Kampfweise der Landstreitkräfte im Behördenspiegel. Darstellung sehr diffus. Vlt. hat der eine oder andere sinnvolle Hinweise zur Einordnung.
„Im dt. Heer 2035 plus wird Abstandsfähigkeit konsequent höher priorisiert als Duellfähigkeit.“
„Im dt. Heer 2035 plus wird Abstandsfähigkeit konsequent höher priorisiert als Duellfähigkeit.“
Looking forward to presenting on my academic hobby horse next week at @ceri-sciencespo.bsky.social: "The Changing Field of Foreign Policy Expertise in Russia", as part of a seminar series organized by the "Beyond post-Sovietism" research group
www.sciencespo.fr/ceri-eveneme...
www.sciencespo.fr/ceri-eveneme...
The Changing Field of Foreign Policy Expertise in Russia: Between Politics and the Public Sphere
This seminar is part of the Beyond post-Sovietism. Social and political dynamics research group in collaboration with the seminar Autoritarisme, guerre et mobilisations dans l’espace postsoviétique (...
www.sciencespo.fr
May 30, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Looking forward to presenting on my academic hobby horse next week at @ceri-sciencespo.bsky.social: "The Changing Field of Foreign Policy Expertise in Russia", as part of a seminar series organized by the "Beyond post-Sovietism" research group
www.sciencespo.fr/ceri-eveneme...
www.sciencespo.fr/ceri-eveneme...
These are the escalation scenarios that should keep us up at night- not some sudden land grabs to dismantle NATO: Shadow fleet showdown in the Gulf of Finland. War is about politics, not simply the balance of power. Recall the Obama doctrine: Don’t do stupid shit!
www.lloydslist.com/LL1153505/Es...
www.lloydslist.com/LL1153505/Es...
Estonia redirects maritime traffic after Russia detains Greek tanker
Russia’s detention of Greece-owned aframax just three days after another Baltic Sea incident saw Nato and Russian jets scrambled amid growing security concerns, has prompted EU ministers and Nato officials to discuss shadow fleet clashes
www.lloydslist.com
May 22, 2025 at 9:06 AM
These are the escalation scenarios that should keep us up at night- not some sudden land grabs to dismantle NATO: Shadow fleet showdown in the Gulf of Finland. War is about politics, not simply the balance of power. Recall the Obama doctrine: Don’t do stupid shit!
www.lloydslist.com/LL1153505/Es...
www.lloydslist.com/LL1153505/Es...
Habe mit dem Standard über die Gespräche in Istanbul zwischen #Russland und der #Ukraine gesprochen. 1/3
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
Wie Russlands Sturheit die Diplomatie an ihre Grenzen stoßen lässt
Weil Wladimir Putin auch in Istanbul auf der Kapitulation der Ukraine beharrte und keine Angst vor Donald Trump hat, rückt eine Verhandlungslösung in weite Ferne
www.derstandard.de
May 16, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Habe mit dem Standard über die Gespräche in Istanbul zwischen #Russland und der #Ukraine gesprochen. 1/3
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
www.derstandard.de/story/300000...
Zum Satz des Bundeskanzlers über die "Konventionell stärkste Armee Europas" habe ich mit @br24.de gesprochen: "Was Merz hier macht, ist ein politisches Signal." Der Kanzler bestätige in ähnlicher Form Aussagen, die auch sein Vorgänger Olaf Scholz getroffen hatte. www.br.de/nachrichten/...
Merz will "konventionell stärkste Armee" Europas: Was heißt das?
In seiner ersten Regierungserklärung hat Kanzler Merz massive Investitionen in die Verteidigung angekündigt. Die Bundeswehr soll zur "konventionell stärksten Armee Europas" ausgebaut werden. Doch was ...
www.br.de
May 15, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Zum Satz des Bundeskanzlers über die "Konventionell stärkste Armee Europas" habe ich mit @br24.de gesprochen: "Was Merz hier macht, ist ein politisches Signal." Der Kanzler bestätige in ähnlicher Form Aussagen, die auch sein Vorgänger Olaf Scholz getroffen hatte. www.br.de/nachrichten/...
Talked to Jyllands-Posten about the war and negotiations: "This is a fundamental point: Russia's interest is not to end the war - Russia's interest is to achieve its goals. And if it is necessary to continue the war to achieve that, then Russia will continue it." jyllands-posten.dk/internationa...
Ved dette bord i Istanbul troede nogen, at fred i Ukraine var tæt på - nu er det højaktuelt at forstå, hvad der gik galt
Rusland og Ukraine vil måske forhandle direkte med hinanden for første gang, siden de i 2022 senest sad i Istanbul. Jyllands-Posten har talt med en af de centrale ukrainske forhandlere fra de møder. H...
jyllands-posten.dk
May 15, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Talked to Jyllands-Posten about the war and negotiations: "This is a fundamental point: Russia's interest is not to end the war - Russia's interest is to achieve its goals. And if it is necessary to continue the war to achieve that, then Russia will continue it." jyllands-posten.dk/internationa...
Where does the idea come from that everyone wants #peace? War is a tool of politics. #Putin doesn’t seek peace for its own sake - he wants to reach his objectives. Even #Zelensky isn’t after just any "unjust" peace. That’s why he keeps repeating the phrase "good faith negotiations".
May 14, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Die Episode der G4 in Kyjiw zeigt das Problem einer medial getriebenen Politik: Schöne Bilder reichen nicht. Keine Sanktionen vorbereitet. Trumps Zusage über Nacht einkassiert. Ultimatum ohne Folgen verstrichen. Von Putins Vorschlag eines Treffens in Istanbul überrumpelt. 1/3
May 13, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Die Episode der G4 in Kyjiw zeigt das Problem einer medial getriebenen Politik: Schöne Bilder reichen nicht. Keine Sanktionen vorbereitet. Trumps Zusage über Nacht einkassiert. Ultimatum ohne Folgen verstrichen. Von Putins Vorschlag eines Treffens in Istanbul überrumpelt. 1/3
"Das Szenario eines direkten Angriffs auf die Nato beruht somit auf zumindest zweifelhaften Annahmen über die Rationalität politischer Entscheidungsträger im Kreml."
www.stern.de/politik/ausl...
www.stern.de/politik/ausl...
April 29, 2025 at 4:25 AM
"Das Szenario eines direkten Angriffs auf die Nato beruht somit auf zumindest zweifelhaften Annahmen über die Rationalität politischer Entscheidungsträger im Kreml."
www.stern.de/politik/ausl...
www.stern.de/politik/ausl...
Russia might want to "change the European security architecture", as they say, but it simply doesn't have the means. A phantom menace. All it can do and certainly wants to do, is to stop further NATO enlargement, and limit Western/EU/NATO/US influence in its neighborhood. 1/5
April 18, 2025 at 6:49 AM
Russia might want to "change the European security architecture", as they say, but it simply doesn't have the means. A phantom menace. All it can do and certainly wants to do, is to stop further NATO enlargement, and limit Western/EU/NATO/US influence in its neighborhood. 1/5
Dass die #Taurus-debatte gerade jetzt wieder hochkocht, ist auch ein Zeichen für die politische Ratlosigkeit hierzulande angesichts der US-RU Dynamik. Eine Ersatzhandlung der Symbolpolitik. Strategisch wird es wenig nutzen, ggf sogar schaden. Deshalb wird Merz nicht liefern.
April 18, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Dass die #Taurus-debatte gerade jetzt wieder hochkocht, ist auch ein Zeichen für die politische Ratlosigkeit hierzulande angesichts der US-RU Dynamik. Eine Ersatzhandlung der Symbolpolitik. Strategisch wird es wenig nutzen, ggf sogar schaden. Deshalb wird Merz nicht liefern.
Reposted by Alexander Graef
Großbritannien, das sich als ein Leader einer potenziellen #Ukraine-Friedenstruppe inszeniert, schafft es nicht, wie angekündigt, seine Präsenz an der #NATO-Ostflanke zu verstärken; im Gegenteil. Der in Estland stationierte Brigadekern wird abgeschmolzen, der Aufwuchs für Übungen wird zum Problem.
Estonia’s fears after UK cuts British troop numbers
Country’s former defence commander questions whether the UK is taking its Nato role ‘seriously’
www.thetimes.com
March 27, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Großbritannien, das sich als ein Leader einer potenziellen #Ukraine-Friedenstruppe inszeniert, schafft es nicht, wie angekündigt, seine Präsenz an der #NATO-Ostflanke zu verstärken; im Gegenteil. Der in Estland stationierte Brigadekern wird abgeschmolzen, der Aufwuchs für Übungen wird zum Problem.
Reposted by Alexander Graef
#EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund, a central demand of France.
on.ft.com/3Ridozy
on.ft.com/3Ridozy
EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund
Victory for France-backed ‘Buy European’ approach to defence spending
on.ft.com
March 19, 2025 at 6:26 PM
#EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund, a central demand of France.
on.ft.com/3Ridozy
on.ft.com/3Ridozy
The US and Russian readouts of the Trump-Putin call differ, but a key twist is on the scope of the "ceasefire", which is effectively only a limit on targeting. The US reads "energy and infrastructure" but Russia says "energy infrastructure". Those are not necessarily the same 1/2
March 19, 2025 at 1:31 PM
The US and Russian readouts of the Trump-Putin call differ, but a key twist is on the scope of the "ceasefire", which is effectively only a limit on targeting. The US reads "energy and infrastructure" but Russia says "energy infrastructure". Those are not necessarily the same 1/2
Reposted by Alexander Graef
@alxgraef.bsky.social calls for political leadership & multi-level diplomacy. He argues that growing military activities highlight the need for military-to-military contacts to manage risks; the OSCE can facilitate these dialogues and provide support.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...
From crisis to strategy: The OSCE and arms control in a divided Europe
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the OSCE has faced a deep crisis. Russia and Belarus have violated key norms of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, undermining the OSCE’s role...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
March 14, 2025 at 12:32 PM
@alxgraef.bsky.social calls for political leadership & multi-level diplomacy. He argues that growing military activities highlight the need for military-to-military contacts to manage risks; the OSCE can facilitate these dialogues and provide support.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...