Alexander H. Montgomery
@alexmontgomery.bsky.social
Professor at Reed College
Nonresident Senior Fellow at New America
IR/SNA/STS/WMD
alexmontgomery.com
http://tinyurl.com/oxhbpo
I'm not a donkey, I don't have a field.
Nonresident Senior Fellow at New America
IR/SNA/STS/WMD
alexmontgomery.com
http://tinyurl.com/oxhbpo
I'm not a donkey, I don't have a field.
Pinned
Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
issforum.org/policy-round...
issforum.org/policy-round...
H-Diplo|RJISSF Policy Forum on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
18 July 2025 | PDF: https://issforum.org/to/jrt16-P1 | Website: rjissf.org | X: @HDiplo Editor: Diane Labrosse Commissioning Editor: Jennifer L. Erickson Production Editor: Christopher Ball Pre…
issforum.org
My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
I would be remiss if I didn't mention that @dandrezner.bsky.social pinned it: bsky.app/profile/dand...
Archived at bsky.app/profile/jaco...
October 30, 2025 at 7:40 PM
I would be remiss if I didn't mention that @dandrezner.bsky.social pinned it: bsky.app/profile/dand...
I suspect @dexeve.bsky.social may be right here regarding what Trump thinks he has asked the DoD to do, although I wouldn't go so far as to say "certainly." It would make more sense than underground testing as a "on an equal basis" since... neither Russia nor China has restarted testing.
The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).
October 30, 2025 at 4:23 AM
I suspect @dexeve.bsky.social may be right here regarding what Trump thinks he has asked the DoD to do, although I wouldn't go so far as to say "certainly." It would make more sense than underground testing as a "on an equal basis" since... neither Russia nor China has restarted testing.
Archived at bsky.app/profile/jaco...
October 30, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Archived at bsky.app/profile/jaco...
The United States has tested more weapons than every other country combined, and has the most robust science based stockpile stewardship program. Restarting testing would erode the US lead. www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/n...
October 30, 2025 at 2:20 AM
The United States has tested more weapons than every other country combined, and has the most robust science based stockpile stewardship program. Restarting testing would erode the US lead. www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/n...
“Users often turn to satellite imagery from companies like Planet Labs to find out what’s going on in war zones, countries ruled by authoritarian regimes, or in the aftermath of a natural disaster.” Spot on, except the disaster is man-made in this case…
Satellite shows what’s really happening at the East Wing of the White House
“Now it looks like the White House is physically being destroyed.”…
arstechnica.com
October 24, 2025 at 4:20 PM
“Users often turn to satellite imagery from companies like Planet Labs to find out what’s going on in war zones, countries ruled by authoritarian regimes, or in the aftermath of a natural disaster.” Spot on, except the disaster is man-made in this case…
Astute analysis of the implications of Hegfest: a military that will be instructed to violate domestic and international law.
My analysis of Tuesday's mtg:
"...It underscored the admin’s intention to shift its focus... toward homeland issues, and provided the clearest indication yet that US partners and allies will have to contend with a military increasingly operating outside of int'l law."
www.gmfus.org/news/rough-s...
"...It underscored the admin’s intention to shift its focus... toward homeland issues, and provided the clearest indication yet that US partners and allies will have to contend with a military increasingly operating outside of int'l law."
www.gmfus.org/news/rough-s...
Rough Seas Ahead
www.gmfus.org
October 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Astute analysis of the implications of Hegfest: a military that will be instructed to violate domestic and international law.
I guess it’s Portland’s turn. As a reminder, this federal invasion is based on protests outside of a single ICE facility, where *PDX police* have reported that federal agents are instigating confrontations.
Federal cops ‘instigating’ confrontations with protesters outside ICE building, Portland police official says in court
Assistant Chief Craig Dobson said federal officers were “causing some of the ruckus” at the ongoing protests.
www.oregonlive.com
September 27, 2025 at 5:32 PM
I guess it’s Portland’s turn. As a reminder, this federal invasion is based on protests outside of a single ICE facility, where *PDX police* have reported that federal agents are instigating confrontations.
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
September 25, 2025 at 5:16 PM
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social
Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
issforum.org/policy-round...
issforum.org/policy-round...
H-Diplo|RJISSF Policy Forum on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
18 July 2025 | PDF: https://issforum.org/to/jrt16-P1 | Website: rjissf.org | X: @HDiplo Editor: Diane Labrosse Commissioning Editor: Jennifer L. Erickson Production Editor: Christopher Ball Pre…
issforum.org
September 11, 2025 at 7:02 PM
My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control
www.newamerica.org
July 1, 2025 at 1:15 PM
In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Tired: Blowing up Osiraq, declaring Iraq denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized
I guess blowing up Fordow and declaring Iran denuclearized is the new closing Yongbyon and declaring North Korea denuclearized?
June 24, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Tired: Blowing up Osiraq, declaring Iraq denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
@alexmontgomery.bsky.social's work on proliferation networks & nuclear technology acquisition is super relevant here.
"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."
"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."
Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network
Abstract. The nuclear nonproliferation regime has come under attack from proliferation determinists, who argue that resolute proliferants connected by decentralized networks can be stopped only throug...
direct.mit.edu
June 18, 2025 at 3:27 PM
@alexmontgomery.bsky.social's work on proliferation networks & nuclear technology acquisition is super relevant here.
"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."
"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
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Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Israel bombarded Tehran with a new wave of strikes on Sunday afternoon, as both sides warned of more to come in a conflict that is rapidly expanding in scope and intensity. Follow live updates. nyti.ms/4kIzaK4
June 15, 2025 at 5:46 PM
1/
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
Launching the Future Security Scenarios Lab: Meeting Today’s RAND Moment
The Future Security Scenarios Lab advances a multidisciplinary approach to tackle complex security challenges through advanced technologies
www.newamerica.org
June 11, 2025 at 4:17 PM
🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
🎊 New America has launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab (FSSL), led by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social ! 🎊
FSSL’s many-model approach equips policymakers/scholars w/ a future-forward toolkit to confront the national security challenges of today and tomorrow.
🔗 go.newamerica.org/new-america-...
FSSL’s many-model approach equips policymakers/scholars w/ a future-forward toolkit to confront the national security challenges of today and tomorrow.
🔗 go.newamerica.org/new-america-...
June 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
@elkeschwarz.bsky.social has the right analogy for the tech elite’s attitude towards everyone else: they want to treat us all like NPCs.
The tech elite cannot abide others. Or having to seek consent by those affected by their products. Or regulatory limits to protect others. The tech elite wants everyone else to be without interiority or needs. The tech elite needs us all to stay in our lane. Like NPCs
This week, the GOP slid an amendment into the budget reconciliation process that would ban US states from enacting laws that govern AI.
This of course was not an aberration—it’s the direct result of Silicon Valley lobbying efforts, and big tech’s union with Trump and the Republican Party.
This of course was not an aberration—it’s the direct result of Silicon Valley lobbying efforts, and big tech’s union with Trump and the Republican Party.
May 20, 2025 at 2:44 PM
@elkeschwarz.bsky.social has the right analogy for the tech elite’s attitude towards everyone else: they want to treat us all like NPCs.
Same deduction I made. Would love to see any open source evidence of this.
At Carnegie #NUKECON, Colin Kahl says there was a reason US intel community assessed a 50% chance of Russian nuclear use in Ukraine & it wasn’t just people talking. He also said there was no change in status of Russsian strategic nuclear forces. So …changes in the status of tactical nuclear forces!
April 22, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Same deduction I made. Would love to see any open source evidence of this.
TIL that nuclear umbrella is “parapluie nucléaire” in French. Which is amazing. 🤯
"Though both are dwarfed by Russia’s arsenal, together with more French flexibility around its own arms [Britain] might form a European parapluie nucléaire sufficient at least to give Moscow pause and reassure Nato partners."
April 20, 2025 at 4:22 PM
TIL that nuclear umbrella is “parapluie nucléaire” in French. Which is amazing. 🤯
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
In advance of the announced #nuclear negotiations between US and #Iran this weekend, I'm re-upping: forceful tactics may have brought Iran to the negotiation table, but will not seal the deal. US will have to compromise, adapt, and resist the seduction of the binary – "winning" won't work here.
Just in: To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org
thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...
#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org
thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...
#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
To prevent Iran's nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
To curb Iran's nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration has no choice but to learn the art of strategic compromise.
thebulletin.org
April 11, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
The Best Memes About Adding Reporters to Group Chats About Bombing Yemen gizmodo.com/the-best-mem...
The Best Memes About Adding Reporters to Group Chats About Bombing Yemen
You have to laugh to keep from crying.
gizmodo.com
March 26, 2025 at 10:55 AM
The Best Memes About Adding Reporters to Group Chats About Bombing Yemen gizmodo.com/the-best-mem...
If your project requires doing something like this (immoral if not illegal) to function, your project is not sustainable, and deserves to be stuck in a Nepenthes-style trap.
Devs say AI crawlers dominate traffic, forcing blocks on entire countries
AI bots hungry for data are taking down sites by accident, but humans are fighting back.
arstechnica.com
March 25, 2025 at 11:28 PM
If your project requires doing something like this (immoral if not illegal) to function, your project is not sustainable, and deserves to be stuck in a Nepenthes-style trap.
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
I hate it when my work gets more relevant.
March 17, 2025 at 2:17 PM
I hate it when my work gets more relevant.
As I tell my students:
AI coding assistant refuses to write code, tells user to learn programming instead
Cursor AI tells user, “I cannot generate code for you, as that would be completing your work.”…
arstechnica.com
March 14, 2025 at 9:16 PM
As I tell my students: