Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
PRC and DPRK strategic forces analyst with CNA. BA Reed College, MA Middlebury Institute. NSF GRFP.
We have identified what is likely the first technical support area in Belarus for the Oreshnik missile.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Exclusive: Russia likely placing new hypersonic missiles at former airbase in Belarus, researchers find
Moscow is likely stationing new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a development that could bolster Russia’s ability to deliver missiles across Europ...
www.reuters.com
December 27, 2025 at 4:36 PM
We have identified what is likely the first technical support area in Belarus for the Oreshnik missile.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Some very brief thoughts on the Navy force design discussion: "But I think as a whole the direction the US Navy’s force design is going is defensible if you understand how these pieces go together." open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
Thoughts on the Future Fleet
I had meant to write this post weeks ago when the news of the Constellation class’ cancellation (say that five times fast) broke.
open.substack.com
December 23, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Some very brief thoughts on the Navy force design discussion: "But I think as a whole the direction the US Navy’s force design is going is defensible if you understand how these pieces go together." open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
I've been listening a lot to Rush's "Between the Wheels" from their hit 1984 album Grace Under Pressure, a song that compares suffering though the modern media environment's constant drumbeat of news to being a rabbit getting hit by a car
December 23, 2025 at 12:49 AM
I've been listening a lot to Rush's "Between the Wheels" from their hit 1984 album Grace Under Pressure, a song that compares suffering though the modern media environment's constant drumbeat of news to being a rabbit getting hit by a car
Swen is correct to make fun of you.
December 17, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Swen is correct to make fun of you.
Every year that goes by Todd Howard looks more and more like an Italian banking executive
December 12, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Every year that goes by Todd Howard looks more and more like an Italian banking executive
Why is this still going. Some of us have bedtimes
December 12, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Why is this still going. Some of us have bedtimes
YEEEEEESSSSSSS
Ace Combat 8: Wings of Theve announcement trailer www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQYx...
ACE COMBAT 8: WINGS OF THEVE Announcement Trailer
YouTube video by Bandai Namco Entertainment America
www.youtube.com
December 12, 2025 at 3:35 AM
YEEEEEESSSSSSS
I'm glad that Space King exists as it causes the 10% of the Warhammer 40k community with the worst opinions to self label themselves so I can more efficiently ignore their opinions.
December 11, 2025 at 5:00 PM
I'm glad that Space King exists as it causes the 10% of the Warhammer 40k community with the worst opinions to self label themselves so I can more efficiently ignore their opinions.
If American companies cannot supply a cheap weapon that consistently works in Ukraine, then the entire idea of mixing high and low capability weapons in the Pacific is dead on arrival. If you can't deal with Russian EW then you definitely aren't going to like Chinese EW.
November 29, 2025 at 2:05 PM
If American companies cannot supply a cheap weapon that consistently works in Ukraine, then the entire idea of mixing high and low capability weapons in the Pacific is dead on arrival. If you can't deal with Russian EW then you definitely aren't going to like Chinese EW.
When you eject the floppy disk a little too hard
November 29, 2025 at 1:46 PM
When you eject the floppy disk a little too hard
Canceling the constellation class was good and nessessary and will allow the Navy to focus on more achievable capabilities and goals. I understand this is an unpopular opinion, but its also the correct one when taking into account the constraints the Navy is operating under.
November 26, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Canceling the constellation class was good and nessessary and will allow the Navy to focus on more achievable capabilities and goals. I understand this is an unpopular opinion, but its also the correct one when taking into account the constraints the Navy is operating under.
Verstappen winning the champ via disqualifications would not be good, but it would be very, very funny.
November 23, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Verstappen winning the champ via disqualifications would not be good, but it would be very, very funny.
Gunter was streaming himself playing modded HOI4 kicking the shit out if the Russians
November 23, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Gunter was streaming himself playing modded HOI4 kicking the shit out if the Russians
I have never understood the idea that rotating a map of Asia 90° will suddenly unlock some revolutionary new perspective. The places are in the same spots. Everything that can be said about Asian security problems can be said with a north up map.
November 20, 2025 at 5:34 PM
I have never understood the idea that rotating a map of Asia 90° will suddenly unlock some revolutionary new perspective. The places are in the same spots. Everything that can be said about Asian security problems can be said with a north up map.
My dad, who has worn the same pair of tan New Balances for 30 years, arrived to this wedding location wearing *black* New Balances. When questioned, he explained that these were his dress New Balances, for special occasions. Of course.
October 31, 2025 at 3:23 PM
My dad, who has worn the same pair of tan New Balances for 30 years, arrived to this wedding location wearing *black* New Balances. When questioned, he explained that these were his dress New Balances, for special occasions. Of course.
The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).
October 30, 2025 at 2:18 AM
The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).
Most of the takes I see on Russia-US nuclear issues over the past 48 hours are well reasoned but may fall victim to overthinking. Putin likes Brevestnik because its his pet project. Trump wants to do 1 to 1 flight testing to match.
October 30, 2025 at 2:17 AM
Most of the takes I see on Russia-US nuclear issues over the past 48 hours are well reasoned but may fall victim to overthinking. Putin likes Brevestnik because its his pet project. Trump wants to do 1 to 1 flight testing to match.
This is with no exaggeration how it feels sometimes to read FOIA documents.
Learned that an anonymous outside expert on submersibles did an interview with the OceanGate Titan investigation, and they released a transcript, with all the names redacted. The first line of his first answer? "I'm sure you're familiar with my film Titanic."
October 16, 2025 at 11:36 PM
This is with no exaggeration how it feels sometimes to read FOIA documents.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
October 16, 2025 at 11:28 AM
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
October 16, 2025 at 1:01 PM
More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.
Another related problem is that while GW continues to claim the setting is a satire, none of the current main line writers treat the setting like that, so the main line plot now takes itself way too seriously and has lost all hint of satire or irony.
Case in point: the new Terra books.
Case in point: the new Terra books.
I think more broadly what we’re seeing in a lot of fantasy/sci-fi gaming is that the old guard had a grounding in history and historical wargaming the new guard kinda lacks in general.
Basically all the attempts at doing so now are totally halfassed and have a tendency to just end in "bloodplague/tyranids ate everyone" after nine months.
October 6, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Another related problem is that while GW continues to claim the setting is a satire, none of the current main line writers treat the setting like that, so the main line plot now takes itself way too seriously and has lost all hint of satire or irony.
Case in point: the new Terra books.
Case in point: the new Terra books.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
respectfully, you could not be further from the mark 😂
Tom Clancy would have been just an incredible poster. He'd have 500k followers and a name like "TomCatOSINT" or something. He'd have 100 tweet threads on Russian carrier tactics that end with recommendations on the best places in the Barents to place tactical nuclear mines.
October 6, 2025 at 7:12 AM
respectfully, you could not be further from the mark 😂
The new DLC for Rogue Trader looks rad, but the idea of spending another 50 hours playing the Rogue Trader combat system makes me want to blow my brains out
October 6, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The new DLC for Rogue Trader looks rad, but the idea of spending another 50 hours playing the Rogue Trader combat system makes me want to blow my brains out