Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
PRC and DPRK strategic forces analyst with CNA. BA Reed College, MA Middlebury Institute. NSF GRFP.
My dad, who has worn the same pair of tan New Balances for 30 years, arrived to this wedding location wearing *black* New Balances. When questioned, he explained that these were his dress New Balances, for special occasions. Of course.
October 31, 2025 at 3:23 PM
My dad, who has worn the same pair of tan New Balances for 30 years, arrived to this wedding location wearing *black* New Balances. When questioned, he explained that these were his dress New Balances, for special occasions. Of course.
The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).
October 30, 2025 at 2:18 AM
The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).
Most of the takes I see on Russia-US nuclear issues over the past 48 hours are well reasoned but may fall victim to overthinking. Putin likes Brevestnik because its his pet project. Trump wants to do 1 to 1 flight testing to match.
October 30, 2025 at 2:17 AM
Most of the takes I see on Russia-US nuclear issues over the past 48 hours are well reasoned but may fall victim to overthinking. Putin likes Brevestnik because its his pet project. Trump wants to do 1 to 1 flight testing to match.
This is with no exaggeration how it feels sometimes to read FOIA documents.
Learned that an anonymous outside expert on submersibles did an interview with the OceanGate Titan investigation, and they released a transcript, with all the names redacted. The first line of his first answer? "I'm sure you're familiar with my film Titanic."
October 16, 2025 at 11:36 PM
This is with no exaggeration how it feels sometimes to read FOIA documents.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
October 16, 2025 at 11:28 AM
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
October 16, 2025 at 1:01 PM
More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.
Another related problem is that while GW continues to claim the setting is a satire, none of the current main line writers treat the setting like that, so the main line plot now takes itself way too seriously and has lost all hint of satire or irony.
Case in point: the new Terra books.
Case in point: the new Terra books.
I think more broadly what we’re seeing in a lot of fantasy/sci-fi gaming is that the old guard had a grounding in history and historical wargaming the new guard kinda lacks in general.
Basically all the attempts at doing so now are totally halfassed and have a tendency to just end in "bloodplague/tyranids ate everyone" after nine months.
October 6, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Another related problem is that while GW continues to claim the setting is a satire, none of the current main line writers treat the setting like that, so the main line plot now takes itself way too seriously and has lost all hint of satire or irony.
Case in point: the new Terra books.
Case in point: the new Terra books.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
respectfully, you could not be further from the mark 😂
Tom Clancy would have been just an incredible poster. He'd have 500k followers and a name like "TomCatOSINT" or something. He'd have 100 tweet threads on Russian carrier tactics that end with recommendations on the best places in the Barents to place tactical nuclear mines.
October 6, 2025 at 7:12 AM
respectfully, you could not be further from the mark 😂
The new DLC for Rogue Trader looks rad, but the idea of spending another 50 hours playing the Rogue Trader combat system makes me want to blow my brains out
October 6, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The new DLC for Rogue Trader looks rad, but the idea of spending another 50 hours playing the Rogue Trader combat system makes me want to blow my brains out
I think we count every new PM France gets as a new republic simply because it would be funny.
October 6, 2025 at 12:19 PM
I think we count every new PM France gets as a new republic simply because it would be funny.
Tom Clancy would have been just an incredible poster. He'd have 500k followers and a name like "TomCatOSINT" or something. He'd have 100 tweet threads on Russian carrier tactics that end with recommendations on the best places in the Barents to place tactical nuclear mines.
October 3, 2025 at 1:22 AM
Tom Clancy would have been just an incredible poster. He'd have 500k followers and a name like "TomCatOSINT" or something. He'd have 100 tweet threads on Russian carrier tactics that end with recommendations on the best places in the Barents to place tactical nuclear mines.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
Behind the pageantry are clues about China’s nuclear and strategic ambitions. @dexeve.bsky.social sits down with @nktpnd.bsky.social to discuss.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
October 1, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Behind the pageantry are clues about China’s nuclear and strategic ambitions. @dexeve.bsky.social sits down with @nktpnd.bsky.social to discuss.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
If I had a nickel for each time my undergraduate institution contributed to getting an entire city filled with DHS/national guard, I'd have two nickels. Which isn't a lot, but its weird it happened twice
September 27, 2025 at 5:02 PM
If I had a nickel for each time my undergraduate institution contributed to getting an entire city filled with DHS/national guard, I'd have two nickels. Which isn't a lot, but its weird it happened twice
Intentionally giving your child autism is a very high risk high reward scenario. On the one hand, he could grow up to be Richard Nixon. On the other hand, he could grow up to be Richard Nixon
September 25, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Intentionally giving your child autism is a very high risk high reward scenario. On the one hand, he could grow up to be Richard Nixon. On the other hand, he could grow up to be Richard Nixon
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
Folks, some thoughts on missile defense defeat strategies in other countries, with Pakistan as an example.
Folks, some thoughts on missile defense defeat strategies in other countries, with Pakistan as an example.
Pakistan and Missile Defense Defeat Strategies
Note: This post was originally published here back in April.
open.substack.com
September 19, 2025 at 4:14 PM
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
Folks, some thoughts on missile defense defeat strategies in other countries, with Pakistan as an example.
Folks, some thoughts on missile defense defeat strategies in other countries, with Pakistan as an example.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
I have written some thoughts on why we're suddenly obsessed with counting craters.
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...
"Who Won?" Keeping Score After Stand-off Wars
How can we tell who won if nothing was actually gained?
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com
September 17, 2025 at 1:45 AM
I have written some thoughts on why we're suddenly obsessed with counting craters.
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...
I have written some thoughts on why we're suddenly obsessed with counting craters.
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...
"Who Won?" Keeping Score After Stand-off Wars
How can we tell who won if nothing was actually gained?
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com
September 17, 2025 at 1:45 AM
I have written some thoughts on why we're suddenly obsessed with counting craters.
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...
Me reading your tweets
September 16, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Me reading your tweets
There is absolutely no reason to pretend that people on the left wing of the political spectrum are for any reason incapable of violence.
September 16, 2025 at 7:55 PM
There is absolutely no reason to pretend that people on the left wing of the political spectrum are for any reason incapable of violence.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
I wrote on the death of MIIS, American cultural apathy, and why we can't have a healthy nuclear community.
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
MIIS, American Society, and the Agonizing, Slow Death of Nuclear Studies
America, as a society, is culturally unequipped to deal with the current nuclear age.
open.substack.com
September 14, 2025 at 8:12 PM
I wrote on the death of MIIS, American cultural apathy, and why we can't have a healthy nuclear community.
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
I wrote on the death of MIIS, American cultural apathy, and why we can't have a healthy nuclear community.
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
MIIS, American Society, and the Agonizing, Slow Death of Nuclear Studies
America, as a society, is culturally unequipped to deal with the current nuclear age.
open.substack.com
September 14, 2025 at 8:12 PM
I wrote on the death of MIIS, American cultural apathy, and why we can't have a healthy nuclear community.
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
Just realized: the J is probably for 井
B for upgraded (probably huge guidence overhaul) and J for silo, I imagine.
Calling it the BJ is...unfortunate.
Calling it the BJ is...unfortunate.
DF-31BJ. (New variant.)
September 3, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Just realized: the J is probably for 井
B for upgraded (probably huge guidence overhaul) and J for silo, I imagine.
Calling it the BJ is...unfortunate.
Calling it the BJ is...unfortunate.
September 3, 2025 at 12:04 AM
B for upgraded (probably huge guidence overhaul) and J for silo, I imagine.
Calling it the BJ is...unfortunate.
Calling it the BJ is...unfortunate.
Note the mechanized silo loader. Its probably prefueled and therefore too heavy for their usual cranes.
September 3, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Note the mechanized silo loader. Its probably prefueled and therefore too heavy for their usual cranes.
That was some bumper cars shit
August 31, 2025 at 2:15 PM
That was some bumper cars shit