Amy J. Nelson
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Foreign Policy & National Security
Nuclear and AI Futures
Senior Fellow, Future Security Program, New America
Adjunct Faculty, Georgetown University
Nuclear and AI Futures
Senior Fellow, Future Security Program, New America
Adjunct Faculty, Georgetown University
I warned that without clear US nuclear policy, we’d be vulnerable to misinterpretation—even of a tweet.
Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I warned that without clear US nuclear policy, we’d be vulnerable to misinterpretation—even of a tweet.
Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
So this was troll-the-libs-nuclear-testing-edition…
The nuclear testing ordered by President Trump will not involve nuclear explosions, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday, clarifying that the testing would involve “the other parts of a nuclear weapon” to ensure they are working properly.
New Weapons Testing Won’t Include Nuclear Explosions, Energy Secretary Says
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the testing ordered up in a surprise announcement by President Trump last week would focus on “the other parts” of nuclear weaponry.
nyti.ms
November 3, 2025 at 7:05 PM
So this was troll-the-libs-nuclear-testing-edition…
Coming soon from the Future Security Scenarios Lab: our new report on why warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk go unheard—and how to make them matter.
The real horror story? 😱 Nuclear warnings don’t work the way we think. ☢️
Stay tuned for an upcoming report from @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social on resistance to warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk. 🕷️
Stay tuned for an upcoming report from @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social on resistance to warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk. 🕷️
October 31, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Coming soon from the Future Security Scenarios Lab: our new report on why warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk go unheard—and how to make them matter.
What does it take to build conditions for nuclear disarmament? In PONI’s Negotiator Files, I speak with Christopher Ford about lessons from the NPT process and the CEND initiative.
In PONI’s latest episode of The Negotiator Files, interviewer @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social interviewed Christopher Ford. He discussed his role in the NPT conferences and the Creating an Environment for Nuclear Disarmament (CEND) initiative.
Watch it here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s2C...
Watch it here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s2C...
The Negotiator Files: A Conversation with Christopher Ford
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
www.youtube.com
October 29, 2025 at 2:24 PM
What does it take to build conditions for nuclear disarmament? In PONI’s Negotiator Files, I speak with Christopher Ford about lessons from the NPT process and the CEND initiative.
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
September 25, 2025 at 5:16 PM
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
September 25, 2025 at 1:33 PM
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
New America experts around the web:
1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr
2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4
3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd
4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr
2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4
3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd
4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
July 24, 2025 at 8:29 PM
New America experts around the web:
1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr
2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4
3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd
4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr
2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4
3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd
4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
This podcast is asking the right questions: What should guide future #Nuclear #ArmsControl in a world beyond #parity + warhead cuts?
Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion
Vipin and I welcome Mallory Stewart and Mike Albertson to discuss impediments to negotiating a New START follow-on agreement, how China factors in, and what a future agreement may look like.
open.substack.com
July 7, 2025 at 3:02 PM
This podcast is asking the right questions: What should guide future #Nuclear #ArmsControl in a world beyond #parity + warhead cuts?
Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control
www.newamerica.org
July 1, 2025 at 1:15 PM
In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
The #Iran crisis isn’t just about uranium or airstrikes. It’s about what happens when #ArmsControl frameworks break down and we don’t have a strategy for what comes next.
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NatSec #Diplomacy #Nuclear
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NatSec #Diplomacy #Nuclear
What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control
www.newamerica.org
June 30, 2025 at 8:53 PM
The #Iran crisis isn’t just about uranium or airstrikes. It’s about what happens when #ArmsControl frameworks break down and we don’t have a strategy for what comes next.
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NatSec #Diplomacy #Nuclear
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NatSec #Diplomacy #Nuclear
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For decades, the U.S. and others threatened force to deter nuclear breakout—expecting diplomacy to follow. But what happens when the diplomatic track erodes altogether?
🧵
For decades, the U.S. and others threatened force to deter nuclear breakout—expecting diplomacy to follow. But what happens when the diplomatic track erodes altogether?
🧵
June 16, 2025 at 4:26 PM
1/
For decades, the U.S. and others threatened force to deter nuclear breakout—expecting diplomacy to follow. But what happens when the diplomatic track erodes altogether?
🧵
For decades, the U.S. and others threatened force to deter nuclear breakout—expecting diplomacy to follow. But what happens when the diplomatic track erodes altogether?
🧵
1/
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Israel bombarded Tehran with a new wave of strikes on Sunday afternoon, as both sides warned of more to come in a conflict that is rapidly expanding in scope and intensity. Follow live updates. nyti.ms/4kIzaK4
June 15, 2025 at 5:46 PM
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Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
When RAND was founded in 1948, it was because the old ways of thinking couldn’t meet new atomic-age threats. The Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org picks up that mantle—designing futures thinking for today’s interdependent risks. Read more here:
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
June 13, 2025 at 2:16 PM
When RAND was founded in 1948, it was because the old ways of thinking couldn’t meet new atomic-age threats. The Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org picks up that mantle—designing futures thinking for today’s interdependent risks. Read more here:
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
Launching the Future Security Scenarios Lab: Meeting Today’s RAND Moment
The Future Security Scenarios Lab advances a multidisciplinary approach to tackle complex security challenges through advanced technologies
www.newamerica.org
June 11, 2025 at 4:17 PM
🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
Worth noting: The new US proposal to Iran underscores a broader truth: #ArmsControl often advances not through grand bargains, but through incremental steps. As my work highlights, this kind of progress can reduce risk and build stability even amid deep #uncertainty.
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...
U.S. Proposes Interim Step in Iran Nuclear Talks Allowing Some Enrichment
www.nytimes.com
June 6, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Worth noting: The new US proposal to Iran underscores a broader truth: #ArmsControl often advances not through grand bargains, but through incremental steps. As my work highlights, this kind of progress can reduce risk and build stability even amid deep #uncertainty.
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...
I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
🎊 New America has launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab (FSSL), led by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social ! 🎊
FSSL’s many-model approach equips policymakers/scholars w/ a future-forward toolkit to confront the national security challenges of today and tomorrow.
🔗 go.newamerica.org/new-america-...
FSSL’s many-model approach equips policymakers/scholars w/ a future-forward toolkit to confront the national security challenges of today and tomorrow.
🔗 go.newamerica.org/new-america-...
June 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
Arms control negotiations don't collapse over weapons—they collapse over mistrust.
When you can’t trust the other side’s intentions, that’s the death knell. Every time.
#armscontrol #natsec #diplomacy
via @nbcnews www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
When you can’t trust the other side’s intentions, that’s the death knell. Every time.
#armscontrol #natsec #diplomacy
via @nbcnews www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
Iran accuses U.S. of 'provocative statements' ahead of nuclear talks
The Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized “the contradictory approach of American decision-makers," state media reported.
www.nbcnews.com
May 2, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Arms control negotiations don't collapse over weapons—they collapse over mistrust.
When you can’t trust the other side’s intentions, that’s the death knell. Every time.
#armscontrol #natsec #diplomacy
via @nbcnews www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
When you can’t trust the other side’s intentions, that’s the death knell. Every time.
#armscontrol #natsec #diplomacy
via @nbcnews www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
In advance of the announced #nuclear negotiations between US and #Iran this weekend, I'm re-upping: forceful tactics may have brought Iran to the negotiation table, but will not seal the deal. US will have to compromise, adapt, and resist the seduction of the binary – "winning" won't work here.
Just in: To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org
thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...
#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org
thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...
#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
To prevent Iran's nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
To curb Iran's nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration has no choice but to learn the art of strategic compromise.
thebulletin.org
April 11, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
Just in: To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org
thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...
#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org
thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...
#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
To prevent Iran's nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
To curb Iran's nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration has no choice but to learn the art of strategic compromise.
thebulletin.org
March 25, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Just in: To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org
thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...
#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org
thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...
#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
The U.S. 2023 Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) Policy has just been rescinded by the White House. CAT policy regulates US arms exports to promote US security interests, including alliances, support economic and defense industry interests, and address human rights and regional stability concerns.
This set of recissions on March 14 includes NSM-18, aka conventional arms transfer (CAT) policy.
See CAT policy resource page at www.forumarmstrade.org/catpolicy.html
Unclear what replaces the policy at this point. If you know, please add comment to this post.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
See CAT policy resource page at www.forumarmstrade.org/catpolicy.html
Unclear what replaces the policy at this point. If you know, please add comment to this post.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Additional Recissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1. Purpose.
www.whitehouse.gov
March 17, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The U.S. 2023 Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) Policy has just been rescinded by the White House. CAT policy regulates US arms exports to promote US security interests, including alliances, support economic and defense industry interests, and address human rights and regional stability concerns.
Of all the uncertainties emanating shifting U.S. foreign policy, the question of whether allies - longstanding member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty - will consider acquiring their own nuclear weapons is the least uncertain.
A nuclear Poland? Logistics, political challenges ahead of potential Warsaw deal
https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/a-nuclear-poland-logistics-political-challenges-ahead-of-potential-warsaw-deal/
A nuclear Poland? Logistics, political challenges ahead of potential Warsaw deal
“Poland’s history makes it very clear why they are concerned that the people they align with, and the people they rely on for protection from Russia, will abandon them,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former US government official now with the Federation of American Scientists, told Breaking Defense.
breakingdefense.com
March 16, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Of all the uncertainties emanating shifting U.S. foreign policy, the question of whether allies - longstanding member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty - will consider acquiring their own nuclear weapons is the least uncertain.
🚨 Free eprints available! @alexmontgomery.bsky.social are excited to share our latest article, "Ceci n’est pas une nuke? The impact of emerging militarized technologies on strategic stability," in the Journal of Strategic Studies. Get a free download here:
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ITWWX...
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ITWWX...
Ceci n’est pas une nuke? The impact of emerging militarised technologies on strategic stability
Novel technologies with military applications are often implicitly viewed as significant threats to strategic stability. Yet, some implementations of emerging technologies may bolster defenses, mit...
www.tandfonline.com
February 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
🚨 Free eprints available! @alexmontgomery.bsky.social are excited to share our latest article, "Ceci n’est pas une nuke? The impact of emerging militarized technologies on strategic stability," in the Journal of Strategic Studies. Get a free download here:
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ITWWX...
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ITWWX...
In a word: destabilizing
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/u...
Trump Orders ‘Iron Dome’ for U.S., but Freezes Funds for Nuclear Protection
The United States is estimated to have spent more than $400 billion on the kinds of antimissile goals that the president now says will provide “for the common defense.”
www.nytimes.com
January 30, 2025 at 4:53 PM
In a word: destabilizing
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/u...
Attending the #INF Treaty anniversary event today—a moment to reflect on a landmark in arms control. Despite challenges facing arms control today, the INF Treaty stands as a critical achievement in enhancing global security. Grateful this community continues to engage on these issues. #ArmsControl
December 9, 2024 at 3:05 PM
Attending the #INF Treaty anniversary event today—a moment to reflect on a landmark in arms control. Despite challenges facing arms control today, the INF Treaty stands as a critical achievement in enhancing global security. Grateful this community continues to engage on these issues. #ArmsControl
What has been the role of #luck in forestalling #nuclear disasters?
Uncertain times call for big ideas. @douglasbshaw.bsky.social, @stevefetter.bsky.social, and Lyndon Burford and I discussed Benoit Pelopidas's ideas and work @nti.org.
Uncertain times call for big ideas. @douglasbshaw.bsky.social, @stevefetter.bsky.social, and Lyndon Burford and I discussed Benoit Pelopidas's ideas and work @nti.org.
December 5, 2024 at 3:31 PM
What has been the role of #luck in forestalling #nuclear disasters?
Uncertain times call for big ideas. @douglasbshaw.bsky.social, @stevefetter.bsky.social, and Lyndon Burford and I discussed Benoit Pelopidas's ideas and work @nti.org.
Uncertain times call for big ideas. @douglasbshaw.bsky.social, @stevefetter.bsky.social, and Lyndon Burford and I discussed Benoit Pelopidas's ideas and work @nti.org.