Amy J. Nelson
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Foreign Policy & National Security
Nuclear and AI Futures
Senior Fellow, Future Security Program, New America
Adjunct Faculty, Georgetown University
Nuclear and AI Futures
Senior Fellow, Future Security Program, New America
Adjunct Faculty, Georgetown University
Pinned
![Book cover for The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World by [Author Name]. The title appears in large text at the top, with the subtitle below. The design is minimalist, using a restrained color palette and abstract graphic elements that suggest tension and balance. The publisher, Stanford University Press, is listed at the bottom.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wdsu42renkroyeley5zatmxd/bafkreihe264bkphwzs2nzvlitkw6gwc7ga46q3intsmnzwsdp676pvvotm@jpeg)
Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026.
It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.
#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.
#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
🚨JUST IN: Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.
My round-up👇 - 1/n
(More will be added over the next few days.)
#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky
My round-up👇 - 1/n
(More will be added over the next few days.)
#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky
The experts comment: New START expires, bringing both risks and opportunities
Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.
thebulletin.org
February 4, 2026 at 6:40 PM
🚨JUST IN: Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.
My round-up👇 - 1/n
(More will be added over the next few days.)
#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky
My round-up👇 - 1/n
(More will be added over the next few days.)
#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky
This points to 1 of 2 things: either the bureaucracy is out of step with the informal, fast-moving negotiations in Abu Dhabi, or the mixed messaging is designed to create ambiguity and keep Russia guessing. Both underscore how stability is now being managed through improvisation.
Rubio Confirms End of New START, Sparking Calls for Nuclear Talks With Russia, China
https://www.europesays.com/2755458/
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday implicitly confirmed that New START—a key arms control treaty between the…
https://www.europesays.com/2755458/
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday implicitly confirmed that New START—a key arms control treaty between the…
Rubio Confirms End of New START, Sparking Calls for Nuclear Talks With Russia, China - EUROPE SAYS
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday implicitly confirmed that New START—a key arms control treaty between the United States and Russia—will expire
www.europesays.com
February 5, 2026 at 8:45 PM
This points to 1 of 2 things: either the bureaucracy is out of step with the informal, fast-moving negotiations in Abu Dhabi, or the mixed messaging is designed to create ambiguity and keep Russia guessing. Both underscore how stability is now being managed through improvisation.
A quiet but consequential signal: New START principles being kept alive, at least temporarily.
Six more months of compliance buys time, but also underscores how improvised arms control has become, reportedly brokered through Abu Dhabi rather than formal channels.
Six more months of compliance buys time, but also underscores how improvised arms control has become, reportedly brokered through Abu Dhabi rather than formal channels.
SCOOP: The U.S. and Russia are closing in on a deal to continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty beyond its expiration today
Scoop: U.S. and Russia negotiate extension to New START nuclear pact
New START is the last major guardrail constraining the nuclear arsenals of the two countries that together hold some 85% of the world's warheads.
www.axios.com
February 5, 2026 at 8:04 PM
A quiet but consequential signal: New START principles being kept alive, at least temporarily.
Six more months of compliance buys time, but also underscores how improvised arms control has become, reportedly brokered through Abu Dhabi rather than formal channels.
Six more months of compliance buys time, but also underscores how improvised arms control has become, reportedly brokered through Abu Dhabi rather than formal channels.
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
New START can’t be extended anyway - of course the talks are about a new agreement.
“Rather than extend ‘NEW START’ (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.”
February 5, 2026 at 6:59 PM
New START can’t be extended anyway - of course the talks are about a new agreement.
Today, New START expires without replacement, ending the U.S.–Russia strategic nuclear arms treaty era — not arms control itself.
In @thebulletin.org I examine why managing uncertainty, rather than restoring past models, must now be a priority.
thebulletin.org/2026/02/the-...
In @thebulletin.org I examine why managing uncertainty, rather than restoring past models, must now be a priority.
thebulletin.org/2026/02/the-...
The experts comment: New START expires, bringing both risks and opportunities
Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.
thebulletin.org
February 5, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Today, New START expires without replacement, ending the U.S.–Russia strategic nuclear arms treaty era — not arms control itself.
In @thebulletin.org I examine why managing uncertainty, rather than restoring past models, must now be a priority.
thebulletin.org/2026/02/the-...
In @thebulletin.org I examine why managing uncertainty, rather than restoring past models, must now be a priority.
thebulletin.org/2026/02/the-...
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
Amy Nelson (@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social), a senior fellow at @newamerica.org, explains that minimal deterrence may still be possible in a multipolar world, but only if defined functionally rather than numerically.
- 3/n
#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky
- 3/n
#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky
Arms control and the management of uncertainty after New START
Amy Nelson, a senior fellow at New America, explains that minimal deterrence may still be possible in a multipolar world, but only if defined functionally rather than numerically.
thebulletin.org
February 4, 2026 at 7:07 PM
Amy Nelson (@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social), a senior fellow at @newamerica.org, explains that minimal deterrence may still be possible in a multipolar world, but only if defined functionally rather than numerically.
- 3/n
#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky
- 3/n
#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky
With New START expiring later this week, I'm resharing my @poni.csis.org conversation on The Negotiator Files with Rose Gottemoeller, the chief U.S. negotiator of the treaty, on how it was negotiated, ratified, and what its legacy means for #armscontrol today
New episode of The Negotiator Files is live! This installment features Rose Gottemoeller as she discusses her role as the chief U.S. negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).
Watch Here: The Negotiator Files:
Watch Here: The Negotiator Files:
The Negotiator Files - A Conversation With Rose Gottemoeller
In this episode of The Negotiator Files, Rose Gottemoeller discusses her role as the chief U.S. negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). She explains key points of tension…
www.youtube.com
February 4, 2026 at 5:02 PM
With New START expiring later this week, I'm resharing my @poni.csis.org conversation on The Negotiator Files with Rose Gottemoeller, the chief U.S. negotiator of the treaty, on how it was negotiated, ratified, and what its legacy means for #armscontrol today
Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026.
It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.
#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.
#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
February 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM
Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026.
It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.
#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.
#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
Is A House of Dynamite “realistic”? That’s the wrong question.
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social of @newamerica.org argues what matters is whether it feels real enough to spur action on nuclear risk.
☢️ https://go.newamerica.org/house-of-dynamite-nuclear-thinking-5
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social of @newamerica.org argues what matters is whether it feels real enough to spur action on nuclear risk.
☢️ https://go.newamerica.org/house-of-dynamite-nuclear-thinking-5
December 23, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Is A House of Dynamite “realistic”? That’s the wrong question.
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social of @newamerica.org argues what matters is whether it feels real enough to spur action on nuclear risk.
☢️ https://go.newamerica.org/house-of-dynamite-nuclear-thinking-5
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social of @newamerica.org argues what matters is whether it feels real enough to spur action on nuclear risk.
☢️ https://go.newamerica.org/house-of-dynamite-nuclear-thinking-5
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare.
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
December 11, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare.
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
New piece out today @newamerica.org: How @netflix.com's A House of Dynamite Might Change Our Thinking on Nuclear War.
Debates over the film's realism miss the point: the real question is how it shapes attention, framing, and imagination around #nuclear risk
www.newamerica.org/the-thread/n...
Debates over the film's realism miss the point: the real question is how it shapes attention, framing, and imagination around #nuclear risk
www.newamerica.org/the-thread/n...
www.newamerica.org
December 19, 2025 at 4:29 PM
New piece out today @newamerica.org: How @netflix.com's A House of Dynamite Might Change Our Thinking on Nuclear War.
Debates over the film's realism miss the point: the real question is how it shapes attention, framing, and imagination around #nuclear risk
www.newamerica.org/the-thread/n...
Debates over the film's realism miss the point: the real question is how it shapes attention, framing, and imagination around #nuclear risk
www.newamerica.org/the-thread/n...
Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement.
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
The next generation of nuclear strategy must be able to harness disagreement as a source of resilience, not paralysis, argues Amy J. Nelson.
Nuclear Policy Must Learn to Live With Disagreement
From climate to AI, other fields have bridged deep divides.
foreignpolicy.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement.
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
Grateful to the @newamerica.org team for supporting this work. The report unpacks why warnings fail and what it means for nuclear risk today.
Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare.
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
December 11, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Grateful to the @newamerica.org team for supporting this work. The report unpacks why warnings fail and what it means for nuclear risk today.
My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement.
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Threat Complacency and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats in a New Era
This report explores why public awareness of nuclear threats fails to spark action—and how to break the cycle.
www.newamerica.org
December 11, 2025 at 3:53 PM
My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement.
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Our new @newamerica.org report is out today. It explains why nuclear risk warnings rarely land with the public and how fractured expert signals contribute to the problem.
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
A companion op-ed comes out at 10 @foreignpolicy.com
#NuclearRisk #RiskAnalysis
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
A companion op-ed comes out at 10 @foreignpolicy.com
#NuclearRisk #RiskAnalysis
Threat Complacency and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats in a New Era
This report explores why public awareness of nuclear threats fails to spark action—and how to break the cycle.
www.newamerica.org
December 11, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Our new @newamerica.org report is out today. It explains why nuclear risk warnings rarely land with the public and how fractured expert signals contribute to the problem.
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
A companion op-ed comes out at 10 @foreignpolicy.com
#NuclearRisk #RiskAnalysis
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
A companion op-ed comes out at 10 @foreignpolicy.com
#NuclearRisk #RiskAnalysis
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
In PONI's newest episode of The Negotiator Files, @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social speaks with Monte Mallin, who shares insights from his decades of experience as a U.S. arms control negotiator.
Watch the interview here: nuclearnetwork.csis.org/the-negotiat...
Watch the interview here: nuclearnetwork.csis.org/the-negotiat...
November 17, 2025 at 8:59 PM
In PONI's newest episode of The Negotiator Files, @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social speaks with Monte Mallin, who shares insights from his decades of experience as a U.S. arms control negotiator.
Watch the interview here: nuclearnetwork.csis.org/the-negotiat...
Watch the interview here: nuclearnetwork.csis.org/the-negotiat...
I warned that without clear US nuclear policy, we’d be vulnerable to misinterpretation—even of a tweet.
Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I warned that without clear US nuclear policy, we’d be vulnerable to misinterpretation—even of a tweet.
Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
So this was troll-the-libs-nuclear-testing-edition…
The nuclear testing ordered by President Trump will not involve nuclear explosions, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday, clarifying that the testing would involve “the other parts of a nuclear weapon” to ensure they are working properly.
New Weapons Testing Won’t Include Nuclear Explosions, Energy Secretary Says
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the testing ordered up in a surprise announcement by President Trump last week would focus on “the other parts” of nuclear weaponry.
nyti.ms
November 3, 2025 at 7:05 PM
So this was troll-the-libs-nuclear-testing-edition…
Coming soon from the Future Security Scenarios Lab: our new report on why warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk go unheard—and how to make them matter.
The real horror story? 😱 Nuclear warnings don’t work the way we think. ☢️
Stay tuned for an upcoming report from @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social on resistance to warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk. 🕷️
Stay tuned for an upcoming report from @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social on resistance to warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk. 🕷️
October 31, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Coming soon from the Future Security Scenarios Lab: our new report on why warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk go unheard—and how to make them matter.
What does it take to build conditions for nuclear disarmament? In PONI’s Negotiator Files, I speak with Christopher Ford about lessons from the NPT process and the CEND initiative.
In PONI’s latest episode of The Negotiator Files, interviewer @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social interviewed Christopher Ford. He discussed his role in the NPT conferences and the Creating an Environment for Nuclear Disarmament (CEND) initiative.
Watch it here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s2C...
Watch it here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s2C...
The Negotiator Files: A Conversation with Christopher Ford
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
www.youtube.com
October 29, 2025 at 2:24 PM
What does it take to build conditions for nuclear disarmament? In PONI’s Negotiator Files, I speak with Christopher Ford about lessons from the NPT process and the CEND initiative.
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
September 25, 2025 at 5:16 PM
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
September 25, 2025 at 1:33 PM
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
New America experts around the web:
1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr
2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4
3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd
4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr
2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4
3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd
4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
July 24, 2025 at 8:29 PM
New America experts around the web:
1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr
2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4
3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd
4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr
2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4
3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd
4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
This podcast is asking the right questions: What should guide future #Nuclear #ArmsControl in a world beyond #parity + warhead cuts?
Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion
Vipin and I welcome Mallory Stewart and Mike Albertson to discuss impediments to negotiating a New START follow-on agreement, how China factors in, and what a future agreement may look like.
open.substack.com
July 7, 2025 at 3:02 PM
This podcast is asking the right questions: What should guide future #Nuclear #ArmsControl in a world beyond #parity + warhead cuts?
Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...