I agree that it's part of a greater strategic shift--that the NPR alone won't resolve ambiguity.

My new piece for @newamerica.org examines the strategic consequences of exiting the #JCPOA w/out a plan, the erosion of risk management tools, and diplomacy in a post-agreement era as treaty-making gives way to improvisation.

5/
Force without diplomacy isn’t strategy—it’s drift.

#Iran #Israel #Nuclear #ForeignPolicy #JCPOA #SecurityStudies #Nonproliferation #Deterrence #FuturesThinking

4/
What futures does this signal?
– What happens when coercion becomes default?
– How do adversaries adapt when talks fail?
– What new architectures could rebuild credibility?

3/
Military signals—like Israeli strikes—may not be reinforcing diplomacy anymore, but replacing it. And that risks accelerating the very threats they aim to deter.

2/
The JCPOA collapsed. U.S. policy whiplash, maximalist demands, and reversals have left adversaries doubting whether any concessions will yield lasting outcomes.

2/
🔧 Reverse Engineering
Iran captured a U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel in 2011. From it—and other downed drones—it built the Shahed-171 & Saegheh. Copy first, innovate later.

7/
Adaptation beats invention. Constraints don’t always slow proliferation—they sometimes accelerate it.

#Iran #UAV #Drones #MilitaryTech #TechDiffusion #Security

6/
Bottom line: Iran’s drone evolution challenges the idea that only big powers can field or export this kind of capability.

5/
And they learned by using them. Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon—conflicts that doubled as live-fire R&D labs. The feedback loop mattered.

4/
Then came the domestic ramp-up. Despite sanctions, Iran scaled production of ISR drones, loitering munitions, and the Shahed-136—now seen in Ukraine.

3/
Foreign help played a role early on—tech and designs from China, Russia, maybe even North Korea. Nothing cutting-edge, but enough to build on.

2/
It started with reverse engineering. Iran captured a U.S. RQ-170 in 2011, studied other downed UAVs, and built its own: Shahed-171, Saegheh, and more.