Even without the invalidation, we're looking at around 3.8% likely low-end growth next year.

That's better than the 3.5% average of the 1990s!.

You should have seen the fun we've had with Gemini's pics of "us"🤣

It's straight-up Mormon porn (completely sweet, wholesome, and yet erotic...at least to those who love big families😉)

Except that you're debating the depreciation schedule of cars and what that means for GDP accounting 🤣

Delightful! Absolutely delightful! 😉😂🤣

I've never seen such passion for something so nerdy😉

You are like me and Charlie Bilello, Canada chart beefing about owner equivalent rent and whether it means that inflation is above or below the Fed's long-term target and therefore they should cut 25 basis points or not.

It won't actually matter, but it's fun to debate.

Ok, NOW I get it. You're an accountant, who is trying to point out a valid, though arcane debate amongst economists, which has limited impact.

It's like your theory that everyone should have to learn double-booking keeping accounting.

It's all about accounting with you😉 You're delightful! 😂

OK, so Perplexity explained what you're saying to me.

I love you and your theories, like how you think that everything could be solved if double-book keeping accounting was mandatory in schools! 🤣

You're awesome! Auto depreciation and double-book keeping account! You are truly a hero to your people, celebrated in both song and legend😂

You remind me of the value folks who look at Tobin's Q, measuring stocks vs the replacement cost of all assets, who get all excited about an arcane metric that hasn't been used in decades, that no one cares about and that doesn't actually threaten anyone with anything😉

That Debt/GDP is actually higher?

That the dollar is about to collapse?

You appear to be making a very specific claim, but what is the claim? What is the takeaway that "everyone should know"?

What is your specific claim and conclusion that has you so excited?

That chart is showing that in 2024 $1.7 trillion was the effective replacement cost of all consumer durables.

And?

Are you claiming that GDP was overstated by that much?

300 million cars in the US and they last, on average 20 years, and so every year 15 million are purchased to replace them.

GDP captures that in the consumption of those 15 new cars, and everything that goes into building them.

Not sure what "everyone should know" means. What should they know?

It is factored into GDP. As the examples with the food showed.

If you have hardware that lasts 6 years on average (like GPUs), then 15% per year need replacing.

That shows up in GDP when the new chips are purchased.

Yes indeed! If we build a Star Trek future, then everyone will be happy about all the cool stuff we're building.

And if we build an Elysium future, then there will be misery and who cares about the awesome Dyson swarm? Technology was invented to help humans live better.

I just explained in several of these threads why this could be sustainable for the next 200 years.

I'm not predicting it will be but if this continues for the next decade... Now you know why 😉

It shouldn't work that way and it hasn't worked that way until the last 16 years.

In other words welcome to the age of AI where whoever has the compute the money and the access to electricity has a moat that is impenetrable.