Jesse Rothstein

@jrothst.bsky.social

20K followers 1.1K following 240 posts

Economist, public policy wonk, professor at UC Berkeley, faculty director of California Policy Lab & Center for Studies in Higher Education

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Jesse Rothstein is an economist, and currently professor of public policy and economics at the University of California, Berkeley. In 2010, he was chief economist at the US Department of Labor. He is the founding director of the California Policy Lab, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and is a member of the editorial boards of Education Finance and Policy, The Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Review, and Industrial Relations. .. more

Education 35%

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The California Policy Lab @capolicylab.bsky.social · 7d

Tomorrow on @kqedforum.bsky.social: CPL's @evanbwhite.bsky.social will join with @millennialdebt.bsky.social and @jmargetta.bsky.social to discuss the latest on student loans - including a sharp increase in delinquencies: www.kqed.org/forum/201010...

Is The Student Loan Safety Net Unraveling? | KQED

We talk about why California’s student loan delinquency rate is soaring, and how a broken repayment system is pushing borrowers deeper into financial distress.

www.kqed.org

Reposted by Jesse Rothstein

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 11d

@jrothst.bsky.social makes excellent points & language is important. I'm estimating "full employment" ~given~ cruel immigration policy. To measure slack, Fed compares actual labor mkt to estimate of current "full emp" (also dicey language as that estimate generally means UR is high for some groups).

Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 11d

Final note: Of course, this all presumes we know what employment growth has been. We don’t. The Republican failure to pass a budget means that the data aren’t being collected or reported. That makes it much harder to ensure that policy matches to conditions. The Fed can only go on vibes. 7/7

Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 11d

So yes, the Fed should take account of this, and not interpret job growth in the low 5 digits as a sign of a catastrophic collapse in demand. But it is nevertheless bad, not good, news and a sign of policy that is not only illegal and inhumane but also bad economics.

Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 11d

That is, the slowdown in job growth consistent with full employment is direct evidence that immigrants take jobs that otherwise wouldn’t exist in this country, not jobs that natives would otherwise get. And that our (lawless, inhumane) immigration policy is making us all poorer.

Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 11d

To the extent there is an economic justification for the immigration crackdown, it has to be that immigrants take jobs that would otherwise be held by native workers. The evidence has long made clear that isn’t true. But if it were, a reduction in immigration wouldn’t reduce employment growth.

Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 11d

But the low employment growth is not good - it is bad. It means that our economy isn’t growing as fast as it otherwise would, and we aren’t getting wealthier the way we otherwise would. It is a sign that the administration’s (lawless, inhumane) immigration policies are making us all poorer.

Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 11d

@wendyedelberg.bsky.social is (of course) right that we need to recalibrate expectations of what employment growth we can expect in an economy where demand matches supply. If the Fed tried to maintain previous employment growth via monetary policy, it would just create inflation.

Jesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 11d

This is a good thread. But I want to take exception to the naming of low unemployment and low employment growth as “good.” A thread of my own: 1/7

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 11d

There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5

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Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 11d

Reposted by Jesse Rothstein

The California Policy Lab @capolicylab.bsky.social · 17d

More than 330,000 low-income college students in California use #CalFresh to help pay for their groceries. But they may not receive their benefits in November because of the government shutdown. capolicylab.org/news/analysi... #CaLeg

Infograph has a "We accept EBT" sign. And text above it reads: "330,000 low-income college students use CalFresh to help pay for their groceries. But, because of the government shutdown, these college students may not receive their November CalFresh benefits."

Reposted by Jesse Rothstein

The California Policy Lab @capolicylab.bsky.social · 18d

The California Policy Lab is hiring a Researcher/Senior Researcher, focused on health & safety net in California: capolicylab.org/careers/rese...