@zynt82.bsky.social
For once I want to see politicos wrestle with the fact that no democrat has ever benefitted politically from crime rates falling. It gets no media coverage. Voters don't know about it. How does the recommendation of "prioritize" or "moderate on" public safety sit within this reality?
I'm sure that some on Bluesky will reason from their conclusions about the quality of the evidence, but a quick skim (deciding-to-win.vercel.app/Deciding%20t...) suggests they are bringing considerable data, and I for one will be reading it more closely.
October 27, 2025 at 6:16 PM
For once I want to see politicos wrestle with the fact that no democrat has ever benefitted politically from crime rates falling. It gets no media coverage. Voters don't know about it. How does the recommendation of "prioritize" or "moderate on" public safety sit within this reality?
Sincerity and self belief seem to be up there as some of those other attributes. High info and low info voters alike can smell a phony trying to appear more moderate than they really are.
You don't have to say that increasing vote share by 1.4% is "borderline statistically insignificant" (it's not) instead you have to point out candidates aren't made in a lab and there are other attributes that could make up that gap.
October 21, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Sincerity and self belief seem to be up there as some of those other attributes. High info and low info voters alike can smell a phony trying to appear more moderate than they really are.
“Prompted allegations”
“Democrats see”
Why not just report what he’s exactly saying?
“Democrats see”
Why not just report what he’s exactly saying?
President Trump’s move to cancel projects in Democratic states during the government shutdown has prompted allegations of partisanship.
Democrats see a pattern of inflicting pain on places that are politically unfriendly.
Democrats see a pattern of inflicting pain on places that are politically unfriendly.
Trump escalates his use of federal power to target Democratic states
Democrats see a clear pattern of inflicting pain on places that are politically unfriendly, while Trump has declared his intent to hurt liberal areas and policies.
www.washingtonpost.com
October 12, 2025 at 5:31 PM
“Prompted allegations”
“Democrats see”
Why not just report what he’s exactly saying?
“Democrats see”
Why not just report what he’s exactly saying?
Same but for program evaluators. (Repeat ad infinitum for all other careers)
The reason why AI “actors” are bad is that great acting, like any art, is the result of thousands of small, idiosyncratic, unexpected choices. A protocol designed to convincingly simulate acting can’t exercise the judgment needed to make those choices.
October 2, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Same but for program evaluators. (Repeat ad infinitum for all other careers)
Reposted
"You are—at most—going to be one piece of that solution in a chain of many people that begins before you were born and continues after you die." degenerateart.beehiiv.com/p/you-don-t-...
You don't have to swallow frogs
Klein and Coates show that if you don't know what your core beliefs are, you're going to get played.
degenerateart.beehiiv.com
October 1, 2025 at 1:55 AM
"You are—at most—going to be one piece of that solution in a chain of many people that begins before you were born and continues after you die." degenerateart.beehiiv.com/p/you-don-t-...
Reposted
1/n A few days ago, an article appeared in The Atlantic with a bold headline “Left-wing terrorism is on the rise.”
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
Left-Wing Terrorism Is on the Rise
For the first time in more than 30 years, attacks by the far left outnumber those by the far right.
www.theatlantic.com
September 26, 2025 at 10:56 AM
1/n A few days ago, an article appeared in The Atlantic with a bold headline “Left-wing terrorism is on the rise.”
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
Reposted
I've lived in both a full blown autocracy (China) and one of the great resistance states (SK)
a) if you were *actually* practicing security, none of this would be on this highly visible public platform.
b) courage is an important part of resistance, organization is an even more important part
a) if you were *actually* practicing security, none of this would be on this highly visible public platform.
b) courage is an important part of resistance, organization is an even more important part
People legit yelled at me for 24 hours when I said it's extremely dumb to RSVP to a protest. Why hand your name over to a group organizing a protest/rally? Do you *want* to have to talk to the FBI?
Treat anyone encouraging you to RSVP to a protest as a fed. End of.
Treat anyone encouraging you to RSVP to a protest as a fed. End of.
Deputy AG Todd Blanche says ‘organized’ Trump protesters could be investigated
Blanche spoke as DOJ sought to walk back Attorney General Pam Bondi’s comments about "hate speech," which landed her in hot water with conservatives.
www.politico.com
September 18, 2025 at 2:27 PM
I've lived in both a full blown autocracy (China) and one of the great resistance states (SK)
a) if you were *actually* practicing security, none of this would be on this highly visible public platform.
b) courage is an important part of resistance, organization is an even more important part
a) if you were *actually* practicing security, none of this would be on this highly visible public platform.
b) courage is an important part of resistance, organization is an even more important part
Does the democratic will of the public know that immigrants commit fewer crimes than native born folk? Does the democratic will of the public know that immigrants don't hurt native born wages?
The biggest problem American liberalism faces is how to maintain high levels of immigration while respecting the democratic will of the public. I have an idea.
www.theargumentmag.com/p/liberals-d...
www.theargumentmag.com/p/liberals-d...
Liberals don’t have to lose on immigration
“Moderating” on immigration doesn't mean abandoning it
www.theargumentmag.com
September 5, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Does the democratic will of the public know that immigrants commit fewer crimes than native born folk? Does the democratic will of the public know that immigrants don't hurt native born wages?
This is exhaustingly pedantic.
It’s obviously a spectrum. As such, the exact tipping point has almost no bearing on how people on the frontlines are organizing. They will continue to update their tactics and risk assessment as things change gradually.
It’s obviously a spectrum. As such, the exact tipping point has almost no bearing on how people on the frontlines are organizing. They will continue to update their tactics and risk assessment as things change gradually.
Yeah, I think it's a strong articulation of the view! We agree that Trump wants to move to something like CA, and that he has made real progress in that direction.
I just think it's important to recognize we aren't there *yet*, because that shapes how you think about avenues of resistance.
I just think it's important to recognize we aren't there *yet*, because that shapes how you think about avenues of resistance.
August 28, 2025 at 4:11 PM
This is exhaustingly pedantic.
It’s obviously a spectrum. As such, the exact tipping point has almost no bearing on how people on the frontlines are organizing. They will continue to update their tactics and risk assessment as things change gradually.
It’s obviously a spectrum. As such, the exact tipping point has almost no bearing on how people on the frontlines are organizing. They will continue to update their tactics and risk assessment as things change gradually.
Reposted
Video of a scary scene in Adams Morgan last night is making the rounds on DC listservs.
The feds (presumably ICE) seemed to be making immigration/traffic stops. When protesters started shouting, one pointed his Taser at them until other protesters tried to deescalate things...
The feds (presumably ICE) seemed to be making immigration/traffic stops. When protesters started shouting, one pointed his Taser at them until other protesters tried to deescalate things...
August 22, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Video of a scary scene in Adams Morgan last night is making the rounds on DC listservs.
The feds (presumably ICE) seemed to be making immigration/traffic stops. When protesters started shouting, one pointed his Taser at them until other protesters tried to deescalate things...
The feds (presumably ICE) seemed to be making immigration/traffic stops. When protesters started shouting, one pointed his Taser at them until other protesters tried to deescalate things...
Reposted
"We"?
The problem is, *we* aren't building these systems. A very small number of very wealthy companies, controlled by a nearly-as-small group of even more wealthy men, are building these systems.
And none of the incentives align with "helping people draw their own, more accurate conclusions".
The problem is, *we* aren't building these systems. A very small number of very wealthy companies, controlled by a nearly-as-small group of even more wealthy men, are building these systems.
And none of the incentives align with "helping people draw their own, more accurate conclusions".
July 23, 2025 at 11:34 PM
"We"?
The problem is, *we* aren't building these systems. A very small number of very wealthy companies, controlled by a nearly-as-small group of even more wealthy men, are building these systems.
And none of the incentives align with "helping people draw their own, more accurate conclusions".
The problem is, *we* aren't building these systems. A very small number of very wealthy companies, controlled by a nearly-as-small group of even more wealthy men, are building these systems.
And none of the incentives align with "helping people draw their own, more accurate conclusions".
my 5 year old daughter - who already accused Trump of drinking snake venom (without evidence) - is going to be livid.
Congrats everyone, Trump just raised tariffs on Mexican tomatoes for no apparent reason.
Mexico currently supplies around 70% of the U.S. tomato market
apnews.com/article/mexi...
Mexico currently supplies around 70% of the U.S. tomato market
apnews.com/article/mexi...
apnews.com
July 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
my 5 year old daughter - who already accused Trump of drinking snake venom (without evidence) - is going to be livid.
ah yes, George Mason, a hotbed of [checks notes] ... progressivism ...
they're coming for this guy because he's Black. that is the only reason www.propublica.org/article/geor...
George Mason Is the Latest University Under Fire From Trump. Its President Fears an “Orchestrated” Campaign.
When university president Gregory Washington received notice that the Trump administration had opened an investigation into complaints of antisemitism, he was “perplexed.” But there are signs it may b...
www.propublica.org
July 11, 2025 at 1:40 PM
ah yes, George Mason, a hotbed of [checks notes] ... progressivism ...
thinking about how the Sunrise Movement dragged its feet on putting its weight behind Biden. there is a reason every organization doesn't do everything, and that coalitional advocacy is strategic.
Josh Hawley has apparently gotten Trump to cancel a giant transmission project, more than a decade in the works, that would carry wind power from Kansas to Missouri. via @heatmap.news
July 11, 2025 at 1:38 PM
thinking about how the Sunrise Movement dragged its feet on putting its weight behind Biden. there is a reason every organization doesn't do everything, and that coalitional advocacy is strategic.
The takeaway is that local officials need to widen the aperture of what outcomes they consider possible from weather events. What's 'normal' and 'typical' has expanded considerably and rapidly. People need to start internalizing this.
Q: Was there any discussion to evacuate before it was too late?
RICE: What we don't want to do is cry wolf
RICE: What we don't want to do is cry wolf
July 7, 2025 at 5:45 PM
The takeaway is that local officials need to widen the aperture of what outcomes they consider possible from weather events. What's 'normal' and 'typical' has expanded considerably and rapidly. People need to start internalizing this.
they are just trying asbestos they can
June 21, 2025 at 4:00 PM
they are just trying asbestos they can
This is one big issue.
The second big issue is whether this administration can put in place sufficient procedural policy and law that enables less authoritarian figures on the right consolidate power and erode democratic practice after Trump fades.
The second big issue is whether this administration can put in place sufficient procedural policy and law that enables less authoritarian figures on the right consolidate power and erode democratic practice after Trump fades.
The big issue is whether MAGA reflects cultism that will fade when Trump is gone or an eduring predisposition for authoritarianism.
June 16, 2025 at 12:40 PM
This is one big issue.
The second big issue is whether this administration can put in place sufficient procedural policy and law that enables less authoritarian figures on the right consolidate power and erode democratic practice after Trump fades.
The second big issue is whether this administration can put in place sufficient procedural policy and law that enables less authoritarian figures on the right consolidate power and erode democratic practice after Trump fades.
Reposted
When I see videos or photos like this, all I can think about is how at some point, this kid and his mom were in a store and saw that shirt and he liked it or thought it was cool so she bought it to make him happy.
But they're being countered by a flood of videos showing the human toll: crying children, angry protests, families ripped apart. And in the middle, "people just end up getting angrier and angrier."
Inside the social media war over deportations: wapo.st/4l2fK2A
Inside the social media war over deportations: wapo.st/4l2fK2A
June 10, 2025 at 1:19 PM
When I see videos or photos like this, all I can think about is how at some point, this kid and his mom were in a store and saw that shirt and he liked it or thought it was cool so she bought it to make him happy.
Are there any places or forums having sober conversations about the future of the international development sector in the US - beyond 2028?
May 19, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Are there any places or forums having sober conversations about the future of the international development sector in the US - beyond 2028?
Reposted
👋 Hi, we’re Unbreaking, a volunteer-run collective working to document our current moment of institutional collapse and its human costs—as well as the pushback and resilience work already underway. We believe this is critical work for building and retaining political agency.
May 19, 2025 at 5:29 PM
👋 Hi, we’re Unbreaking, a volunteer-run collective working to document our current moment of institutional collapse and its human costs—as well as the pushback and resilience work already underway. We believe this is critical work for building and retaining political agency.
What Trump was impeached for his first term.
From notes and firsthand sources, we also learned of a remarkable meeting: When the U.S. ambassador went to a Gambian minister’s office to push him to approve Starlink’s license, she noted that U.S. foreign aid there was under review.
The Gambians took it as a veiled threat.
The Gambians took it as a veiled threat.
May 16, 2025 at 1:05 AM
What Trump was impeached for his first term.
veep wrote this, you can't convince me otherwise
REPORTER: Do you have any concerns about Trump's business dealings?
MIKE JOHNSON: Whatever President Trump is doing is out in the open.
REPORTER: The memecoin is not transparent. We don't know who those investors are.
JOHNSON: I don't know anything about the memecoin thing.
MIKE JOHNSON: Whatever President Trump is doing is out in the open.
REPORTER: The memecoin is not transparent. We don't know who those investors are.
JOHNSON: I don't know anything about the memecoin thing.
May 14, 2025 at 2:59 PM
veep wrote this, you can't convince me otherwise
when school shooting are common enough to run rigorous studies with comparison groups.
Recently accepted to #REStud, "Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students’ Human Capital and Economic Outcomes," from Cabral, @bokyungkim.bsky.social, @maya-rossin-slater.bsky.social, Schnell and Schwandt:
www.restud.com/trauma-at-sc...
#EconSky #Trauma #HumanCapital #SchoolShooting
www.restud.com/trauma-at-sc...
#EconSky #Trauma #HumanCapital #SchoolShooting
May 5, 2025 at 2:07 PM
when school shooting are common enough to run rigorous studies with comparison groups.