Xavier MacDuff
@xvrmdf.bsky.social
Reposted by Xavier MacDuff
while the headline indices have barely moved off the highs, the carnage in the low quality hype stuff like quantum computing, nuclear energy etc is quite something just month to date:
November 13, 2025 at 4:01 PM
while the headline indices have barely moved off the highs, the carnage in the low quality hype stuff like quantum computing, nuclear energy etc is quite something just month to date:
At what point does the UK stop blaming problems on poor leaders and considers if the rot goes much deeper?
Keir Starmer has effectively started a leadership challenge against himself. To have entered into this kind of madhouse Westminster squabbling so soon after an election is simply unforgivable.
inews.co.uk/opinion/back...
inews.co.uk/opinion/back...
I have always backed Starmer - until now
This kind of Westminster squabbling is unforgivable
inews.co.uk
November 13, 2025 at 11:53 AM
At what point does the UK stop blaming problems on poor leaders and considers if the rot goes much deeper?
Really good list of investing maxims from Angus Tulloch, who retired in 2017 with an excellent long-term track record of managing the Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Fund.
November 12, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Really good list of investing maxims from Angus Tulloch, who retired in 2017 with an excellent long-term track record of managing the Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Fund.
Added Greggs plc to my PA portfolio.
✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)
✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)
November 11, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Added Greggs plc to my PA portfolio.
✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)
✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)
Nick Train after seeing Diageo's trading update today.
a man in a red suit sits at a desk with a glass in front of a screen that says channel 4 news
ALT: a man in a red suit sits at a desk with a glass in front of a screen that says channel 4 news
media.tenor.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Nick Train after seeing Diageo's trading update today.
Absolute banger of a Grand Designs this week. Is £2m enough? Not even close!
Spectacular optimism/hubris!
Spectacular optimism/hubris!
Grand Designs - Stratford-upon-Avon 2025
Is Piers and Emma's £2m enough to build the UK's first new listed castle for 100 years?
www.channel4.com
November 5, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Absolute banger of a Grand Designs this week. Is £2m enough? Not even close!
Spectacular optimism/hubris!
Spectacular optimism/hubris!
Superb work from @tomcalver.bsky.social and @jburnmurdoch.ft.com showing how the UK's upper-middle classes have born the brunt of our 20yr long productivity stagnation, whereas lower earners have been insulated from this via ongoing minimum wage hikes, compressing earnings across the spectrum.
November 2, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Superb work from @tomcalver.bsky.social and @jburnmurdoch.ft.com showing how the UK's upper-middle classes have born the brunt of our 20yr long productivity stagnation, whereas lower earners have been insulated from this via ongoing minimum wage hikes, compressing earnings across the spectrum.
Revealed preference at work...
New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich
Don’t bet on a millionaire exodus if Mamdani wins the mayorship.
www.bloomberg.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Revealed preference at work...
UK soft power at work:
Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.
Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.
October 29, 2025 at 8:01 PM
UK soft power at work:
Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.
Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.
One of the best TV shows out there:
24 Hours in Police Custody.
This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.
24 Hours in Police Custody.
This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.
24 Hours in Police Custody - Murder Is No Game - Part 1
Responding to reports of gunshots, officers find three members of a family fatally wounded
www.channel4.com
October 26, 2025 at 7:38 PM
One of the best TV shows out there:
24 Hours in Police Custody.
This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.
24 Hours in Police Custody.
This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.
The most insane thing you will read today (if you have the stomach for it).
The Goon Squad, by Daniel Kolitz
Loneliness, porn’s next frontier, and the dream of endless masturbation
harpers.org
October 23, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The most insane thing you will read today (if you have the stomach for it).
Worst thing about Bluesky has to be the people who constantly cross-post the most toxic Twitter content along with a comment along the lines of "look how bad this is".
Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.
Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.
October 22, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Worst thing about Bluesky has to be the people who constantly cross-post the most toxic Twitter content along with a comment along the lines of "look how bad this is".
Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.
Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.
You should have more stocks in your portfolio as it is more likely to generate higher returns.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
October 22, 2025 at 6:19 PM
You should have more stocks in your portfolio as it is more likely to generate higher returns.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Macfarlane shares down 18.5% on a profit warning linked to a fatal accident at one of their manufacturing plants.
(I own it).
(I own it).
October 22, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Macfarlane shares down 18.5% on a profit warning linked to a fatal accident at one of their manufacturing plants.
(I own it).
(I own it).
Sharing a few choice paragraphs from this in the thread below. ⬇️
Latest reading: "Great Britain? How we get our future back" by @torstenbell.bsky.social.
A left-of-centre critique of where our country has gone wrong and how we can fix it.
A left-of-centre critique of where our country has gone wrong and how we can fix it.
October 17, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Sharing a few choice paragraphs from this in the thread below. ⬇️
Some Europoors here, enjoying being poor.
October 15, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Some Europoors here, enjoying being poor.
Whilst it's nice to see one of my largest holdings up 20%, I think the current valuation multiple is an absolute steal, and I would be annoyed to lose it at this level.
Blackstone Weighs Bid for UK Storage Landlord Big Yellow
Blackstone Inc is weighing an offer for UK storage landlord Big Yellow Group Plc.
www.bloomberg.com
October 13, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Whilst it's nice to see one of my largest holdings up 20%, I think the current valuation multiple is an absolute steal, and I would be annoyed to lose it at this level.
UK savings ratio is currently on a par with recessions of early 80s, 90s, and GFC.
October 11, 2025 at 9:52 PM
UK savings ratio is currently on a par with recessions of early 80s, 90s, and GFC.
Good introduction here to Pernod-Ricard, one of the world's leading spirits companies.
Pernod Ricard's visibility into the future
Pernod is trading at its lowest ratio since 2009, the investment thesis is that I believe we have sufficient visibility into the future to project a return of growth at MSD and capture thePE rerating
open.substack.com
October 11, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Good introduction here to Pernod-Ricard, one of the world's leading spirits companies.
Just watching Grand Designs.
A couple had to wait 2 years to get a "bat licence" before they could demolish a house prior to starting a new build.
Once the demolition finally began... no bats. 🤣
Regulations like this are absolutely choking our economy.
A couple had to wait 2 years to get a "bat licence" before they could demolish a house prior to starting a new build.
Once the demolition finally began... no bats. 🤣
Regulations like this are absolutely choking our economy.
October 10, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Just watching Grand Designs.
A couple had to wait 2 years to get a "bat licence" before they could demolish a house prior to starting a new build.
Once the demolition finally began... no bats. 🤣
Regulations like this are absolutely choking our economy.
A couple had to wait 2 years to get a "bat licence" before they could demolish a house prior to starting a new build.
Once the demolition finally began... no bats. 🤣
Regulations like this are absolutely choking our economy.
Substantially reduced my position in Starbucks ($SBUX).
Held since Jan 2019 for a 43% TSR (5.5%pa).
Ongoing execution problems since last year, and now priced for a rebound that might be much slower than expected.
Currently 19x EV/EBITDA and a 2.4% FCF yield.
Held since Jan 2019 for a 43% TSR (5.5%pa).
Ongoing execution problems since last year, and now priced for a rebound that might be much slower than expected.
Currently 19x EV/EBITDA and a 2.4% FCF yield.
October 9, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Substantially reduced my position in Starbucks ($SBUX).
Held since Jan 2019 for a 43% TSR (5.5%pa).
Ongoing execution problems since last year, and now priced for a rebound that might be much slower than expected.
Currently 19x EV/EBITDA and a 2.4% FCF yield.
Held since Jan 2019 for a 43% TSR (5.5%pa).
Ongoing execution problems since last year, and now priced for a rebound that might be much slower than expected.
Currently 19x EV/EBITDA and a 2.4% FCF yield.
Why consumer staples stocks aren't as attractive as in the past:
1️⃣ Hard discounters sell fewer branded goods -> Mkt share loss.
2️⃣ Traditional retailers increase private label mix in response -> same.
3️⃣ Social media lowers barriers to entry for new rivals.
4️⃣ 3rd party distribution (Amazon) -> same.
1️⃣ Hard discounters sell fewer branded goods -> Mkt share loss.
2️⃣ Traditional retailers increase private label mix in response -> same.
3️⃣ Social media lowers barriers to entry for new rivals.
4️⃣ 3rd party distribution (Amazon) -> same.
October 9, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Why consumer staples stocks aren't as attractive as in the past:
1️⃣ Hard discounters sell fewer branded goods -> Mkt share loss.
2️⃣ Traditional retailers increase private label mix in response -> same.
3️⃣ Social media lowers barriers to entry for new rivals.
4️⃣ 3rd party distribution (Amazon) -> same.
1️⃣ Hard discounters sell fewer branded goods -> Mkt share loss.
2️⃣ Traditional retailers increase private label mix in response -> same.
3️⃣ Social media lowers barriers to entry for new rivals.
4️⃣ 3rd party distribution (Amazon) -> same.
Excellent (long and detailed) piece here on the attractions of financial data and securities exchanges business, almost all of which have delivered spectacular long-term returns.
10,000x. Bloomberg’s return and why financial data is so darn lucrative
An approximation of how data is turned into dollars
open.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Excellent (long and detailed) piece here on the attractions of financial data and securities exchanges business, almost all of which have delivered spectacular long-term returns.
The UK wind power economics paradox:
❌️ When the wind doesn't blow, you don't make any money because the wind isn't blowing.
❌️ When the wind does blow, you don't make any money because the grid is oversupplied and power prices plunge (or go negative).
❌️ When the wind doesn't blow, you don't make any money because the wind isn't blowing.
❌️ When the wind does blow, you don't make any money because the grid is oversupplied and power prices plunge (or go negative).
October 7, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The UK wind power economics paradox:
❌️ When the wind doesn't blow, you don't make any money because the wind isn't blowing.
❌️ When the wind does blow, you don't make any money because the grid is oversupplied and power prices plunge (or go negative).
❌️ When the wind doesn't blow, you don't make any money because the wind isn't blowing.
❌️ When the wind does blow, you don't make any money because the grid is oversupplied and power prices plunge (or go negative).
Some sensible looking ideas here from Artemis UK smallcap equity manager Mark Niznik.
October 6, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Some sensible looking ideas here from Artemis UK smallcap equity manager Mark Niznik.