Xavier MacDuff
@xvrmdf.bsky.social
I can highly recommend the winter light show at Edinburgh Zoo!
November 23, 2025 at 10:02 AM
I can highly recommend the winter light show at Edinburgh Zoo!
So many US equity market darlings have been absolutely crushed this year.
November 20, 2025 at 2:41 PM
So many US equity market darlings have been absolutely crushed this year.
I think we can now safely say that this credit cycle peaked about 1 year ago.
Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.
Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.
November 18, 2025 at 7:04 PM
I think we can now safely say that this credit cycle peaked about 1 year ago.
Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.
Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.
Scandinavian countries rank high on GDP per capita, on the Human Development Index, and low on inequality. They're exactly the countries we should be trying to emulate for a better and more successful society.
November 18, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Scandinavian countries rank high on GDP per capita, on the Human Development Index, and low on inequality. They're exactly the countries we should be trying to emulate for a better and more successful society.
It's really hard for politicians not to make such changes when an issue polls like this.
Zak Polanski on Newsnight last night was trying to argue that immigration isn't a problem. I don't think that position washes with the public.
Zak Polanski on Newsnight last night was trying to argue that immigration isn't a problem. I don't think that position washes with the public.
November 18, 2025 at 8:11 AM
It's really hard for politicians not to make such changes when an issue polls like this.
Zak Polanski on Newsnight last night was trying to argue that immigration isn't a problem. I don't think that position washes with the public.
Zak Polanski on Newsnight last night was trying to argue that immigration isn't a problem. I don't think that position washes with the public.
Really good list of investing maxims from Angus Tulloch, who retired in 2017 with an excellent long-term track record of managing the Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Fund.
November 12, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Really good list of investing maxims from Angus Tulloch, who retired in 2017 with an excellent long-term track record of managing the Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Fund.
Latest reading: "1929" by Andrew Ross Sorkin.
With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.
Many parallels to today too!
With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.
Many parallels to today too!
November 10, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Latest reading: "1929" by Andrew Ross Sorkin.
With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.
Many parallels to today too!
With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.
Many parallels to today too!
Superb work from @tomcalver.bsky.social and @jburnmurdoch.ft.com showing how the UK's upper-middle classes have born the brunt of our 20yr long productivity stagnation, whereas lower earners have been insulated from this via ongoing minimum wage hikes, compressing earnings across the spectrum.
November 2, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Superb work from @tomcalver.bsky.social and @jburnmurdoch.ft.com showing how the UK's upper-middle classes have born the brunt of our 20yr long productivity stagnation, whereas lower earners have been insulated from this via ongoing minimum wage hikes, compressing earnings across the spectrum.
Latest reading: "Gresham's Law" by John Guy.
A biography of Sir Thomas Gresham, who acted as banker to Edward V, Mary, and Elizabeth I.
Quite a story. He kept screwing-up, and screwing-over counterparties and even his own family members. Died with an estate in bankruptcy.
A biography of Sir Thomas Gresham, who acted as banker to Edward V, Mary, and Elizabeth I.
Quite a story. He kept screwing-up, and screwing-over counterparties and even his own family members. Died with an estate in bankruptcy.
October 27, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Latest reading: "Gresham's Law" by John Guy.
A biography of Sir Thomas Gresham, who acted as banker to Edward V, Mary, and Elizabeth I.
Quite a story. He kept screwing-up, and screwing-over counterparties and even his own family members. Died with an estate in bankruptcy.
A biography of Sir Thomas Gresham, who acted as banker to Edward V, Mary, and Elizabeth I.
Quite a story. He kept screwing-up, and screwing-over counterparties and even his own family members. Died with an estate in bankruptcy.
Perfect example of this is Buffett acolyte Monish Pabrai, who has underperformed the S&P 500 by 3.2% per year over 21 years, and with substantially higher volatility and drawdowns.
October 22, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Perfect example of this is Buffett acolyte Monish Pabrai, who has underperformed the S&P 500 by 3.2% per year over 21 years, and with substantially higher volatility and drawdowns.
You should have more stocks in your portfolio as it is more likely to generate higher returns.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
October 22, 2025 at 6:19 PM
You should have more stocks in your portfolio as it is more likely to generate higher returns.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.
Macfarlane shares down 18.5% on a profit warning linked to a fatal accident at one of their manufacturing plants.
(I own it).
(I own it).
October 22, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Macfarlane shares down 18.5% on a profit warning linked to a fatal accident at one of their manufacturing plants.
(I own it).
(I own it).
We need to urgently deal with the very worst aspects of the tax system. Huge negative incentives and invisible costs with these two.
October 17, 2025 at 9:52 AM
We need to urgently deal with the very worst aspects of the tax system. Huge negative incentives and invisible costs with these two.
Those policy choices *must* begin by getting rid of "Treasury Brain", the tendency to focus on balancing the annual budget at the expense of long-term growth. @torstenbell.bsky.social
October 17, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Those policy choices *must* begin by getting rid of "Treasury Brain", the tendency to focus on balancing the annual budget at the expense of long-term growth. @torstenbell.bsky.social
However, because we've fallen so far behind, catching up shouldn't be too difficult, if only we make the right policy choices.
October 17, 2025 at 9:33 AM
However, because we've fallen so far behind, catching up shouldn't be too difficult, if only we make the right policy choices.
Because we tend to go on holiday in the hotter and poorer parts of Europe (I would add Black Sea, Turkey, and North Africa to this list), most people have failed to notice how far we've fallen behind what were similar economies.
October 17, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Because we tend to go on holiday in the hotter and poorer parts of Europe (I would add Black Sea, Turkey, and North Africa to this list), most people have failed to notice how far we've fallen behind what were similar economies.
Firstly, @torstenbell.bsky.social backs the @tomforth.co.uk view that it isn't lack of skills that are holding us back.
October 17, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Firstly, @torstenbell.bsky.social backs the @tomforth.co.uk view that it isn't lack of skills that are holding us back.
Latest reading: "Great Britain? How we get our future back" by @torstenbell.bsky.social.
A left-of-centre critique of where our country has gone wrong and how we can fix it.
A left-of-centre critique of where our country has gone wrong and how we can fix it.
October 16, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Latest reading: "Great Britain? How we get our future back" by @torstenbell.bsky.social.
A left-of-centre critique of where our country has gone wrong and how we can fix it.
A left-of-centre critique of where our country has gone wrong and how we can fix it.
Some Europoors here, enjoying being poor.
October 15, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Some Europoors here, enjoying being poor.
UK savings ratio is currently on a par with recessions of early 80s, 90s, and GFC.
October 11, 2025 at 9:52 PM
UK savings ratio is currently on a par with recessions of early 80s, 90s, and GFC.
We might be nearing an inflection point in spirits. Destocking phase reaching an end, and Pernod-Ricard is planning to cut back on opex and inventory/WC investment.
October 11, 2025 at 2:09 PM
We might be nearing an inflection point in spirits. Destocking phase reaching an end, and Pernod-Ricard is planning to cut back on opex and inventory/WC investment.
Niznik says he has 100% of his own pension* assets invested in his UK smallcaps fund.
* Note: I suspect he has a lot of other assets too.
* Note: I suspect he has a lot of other assets too.
October 6, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Niznik says he has 100% of his own pension* assets invested in his UK smallcaps fund.
* Note: I suspect he has a lot of other assets too.
* Note: I suspect he has a lot of other assets too.
Some sensible looking ideas here from Artemis UK smallcap equity manager Mark Niznik.
October 6, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Some sensible looking ideas here from Artemis UK smallcap equity manager Mark Niznik.
Latest reading: "The Warren Buffett Way" by Robert Hagstrom.
A good introduction to Warren Buffett if you want to read about him for the first time. But it won't provide anything new if you've read his letters or "The Snowball" by Alice Scroeder.
A good introduction to Warren Buffett if you want to read about him for the first time. But it won't provide anything new if you've read his letters or "The Snowball" by Alice Scroeder.
October 2, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Latest reading: "The Warren Buffett Way" by Robert Hagstrom.
A good introduction to Warren Buffett if you want to read about him for the first time. But it won't provide anything new if you've read his letters or "The Snowball" by Alice Scroeder.
A good introduction to Warren Buffett if you want to read about him for the first time. But it won't provide anything new if you've read his letters or "The Snowball" by Alice Scroeder.