Xavier MacDuff
@xvrmdf.bsky.social
Can it just be a run of bad luck that we've had 7 consecutive terrible Prime Ministers?
November 13, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Can it just be a run of bad luck that we've had 7 consecutive terrible Prime Ministers?
Latest reading: "1929" by Andrew Ross Sorkin.
With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.
Many parallels to today too!
With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.
Many parallels to today too!
November 10, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Latest reading: "1929" by Andrew Ross Sorkin.
With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.
Many parallels to today too!
With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.
Many parallels to today too!
Interesting angle, thanks.
November 7, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Interesting angle, thanks.
Sage, Experian, and LSEG also might need to invest in AI to remain relevant with customers.
November 7, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Sage, Experian, and LSEG also might need to invest in AI to remain relevant with customers.
I think one of his key problems is the heroic position-sizing.
I actually own both of those names. But I have much smaller positions and other names are doing well, so I can take the volatility.
I actually own both of those names. But I have much smaller positions and other names are doing well, so I can take the volatility.
November 7, 2025 at 9:16 AM
I think one of his key problems is the heroic position-sizing.
I actually own both of those names. But I have much smaller positions and other names are doing well, so I can take the volatility.
I actually own both of those names. But I have much smaller positions and other names are doing well, so I can take the volatility.
Strong agree.
Lack of fiscal headroom and the constant speculation about measures to fix it has in my view been hugely damaging to confidence (and therefore the cyclical segments of the economy).
A budget that resets fiscal headroom will therefore be hugely helpful.
Lack of fiscal headroom and the constant speculation about measures to fix it has in my view been hugely damaging to confidence (and therefore the cyclical segments of the economy).
A budget that resets fiscal headroom will therefore be hugely helpful.
October 28, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Strong agree.
Lack of fiscal headroom and the constant speculation about measures to fix it has in my view been hugely damaging to confidence (and therefore the cyclical segments of the economy).
A budget that resets fiscal headroom will therefore be hugely helpful.
Lack of fiscal headroom and the constant speculation about measures to fix it has in my view been hugely damaging to confidence (and therefore the cyclical segments of the economy).
A budget that resets fiscal headroom will therefore be hugely helpful.
Latest reading: "Gresham's Law" by John Guy.
A biography of Sir Thomas Gresham, who acted as banker to Edward V, Mary, and Elizabeth I.
Quite a story. He kept screwing-up, and screwing-over counterparties and even his own family members. Died with an estate in bankruptcy.
A biography of Sir Thomas Gresham, who acted as banker to Edward V, Mary, and Elizabeth I.
Quite a story. He kept screwing-up, and screwing-over counterparties and even his own family members. Died with an estate in bankruptcy.
October 27, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Latest reading: "Gresham's Law" by John Guy.
A biography of Sir Thomas Gresham, who acted as banker to Edward V, Mary, and Elizabeth I.
Quite a story. He kept screwing-up, and screwing-over counterparties and even his own family members. Died with an estate in bankruptcy.
A biography of Sir Thomas Gresham, who acted as banker to Edward V, Mary, and Elizabeth I.
Quite a story. He kept screwing-up, and screwing-over counterparties and even his own family members. Died with an estate in bankruptcy.
Also, the police do an incredible job when they deploy resource behind a large and urgent case.
October 26, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Also, the police do an incredible job when they deploy resource behind a large and urgent case.
Perfect example of this is Buffett acolyte Monish Pabrai, who has underperformed the S&P 500 by 3.2% per year over 21 years, and with substantially higher volatility and drawdowns.
October 22, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Perfect example of this is Buffett acolyte Monish Pabrai, who has underperformed the S&P 500 by 3.2% per year over 21 years, and with substantially higher volatility and drawdowns.
For every Bill Ackman or Warren Buffett (1960s-70s version), there are many concentrated investors that have either blown-up or had to close shop due to mediocre returns. They're the exception, not the rule.
October 22, 2025 at 6:28 PM
For every Bill Ackman or Warren Buffett (1960s-70s version), there are many concentrated investors that have either blown-up or had to close shop due to mediocre returns. They're the exception, not the rule.
Read the full note which explains the reasoning here:
How Many Stocks Should You Own? | NDVR
How many stocks should you own? Conventional wisdom says 20-30. Our research suggests 200 or more eliminates luck as a variable in your long-term outcomes.
ndvr.com
October 22, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Read the full note which explains the reasoning here: