Librarian Capital
@librariancapital.bsky.social
Investing/stocks. Ex. HF seeking ideas, contacts & capital. I may be long/short names mentioned. @LibrarianCap on Twitter. Also Substack https://librariancapital.substack.com/
Pinned
We publish research on interesting stocks on Substack
Growing archive of reports on dozens of companies
"Institutional-grade research at retail prices"
Includes 15-stock model portfolio updated monthly
Follow the link below, or see address on screenshot
librariancapital.substack.com
Growing archive of reports on dozens of companies
"Institutional-grade research at retail prices"
Includes 15-stock model portfolio updated monthly
Follow the link below, or see address on screenshot
librariancapital.substack.com
Greggs $GRG: Re-valuation on premises (from 2021 to 2024) will mean significant increases in Business Rates
Transition relief will cap increase each year, e.g. to 30% in FY26/26 (many Greggs shops smaller)
Also, Shop Occupancy just 7% of Greggs cost base
h/t Dan Neidle x.com/DanNeidle/st...
Transition relief will cap increase each year, e.g. to 30% in FY26/26 (many Greggs shops smaller)
Also, Shop Occupancy just 7% of Greggs cost base
h/t Dan Neidle x.com/DanNeidle/st...
November 29, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Greggs $GRG: Re-valuation on premises (from 2021 to 2024) will mean significant increases in Business Rates
Transition relief will cap increase each year, e.g. to 30% in FY26/26 (many Greggs shops smaller)
Also, Shop Occupancy just 7% of Greggs cost base
h/t Dan Neidle x.com/DanNeidle/st...
Transition relief will cap increase each year, e.g. to 30% in FY26/26 (many Greggs shops smaller)
Also, Shop Occupancy just 7% of Greggs cost base
h/t Dan Neidle x.com/DanNeidle/st...
Greggs $GRG: Value investor Silchester disclosed new 5% stake this week (was zero)
At Fri closing price, this stake is worth £80m
At Fri closing price, this stake is worth £80m
November 29, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Greggs $GRG: Value investor Silchester disclosed new 5% stake this week (was zero)
At Fri closing price, this stake is worth £80m
At Fri closing price, this stake is worth £80m
Telegraph, Feb-25: "A major US investor (James Fishback) with close links to Trump has said he would avoid ever investing in 'backwards' Britain"
This week: "Fishback's ... Tesla was just repo'd by the US Marshals & he still owes over 200k in civil penalties"
Telegraph was gullible or dishonest
This week: "Fishback's ... Tesla was just repo'd by the US Marshals & he still owes over 200k in civil penalties"
Telegraph was gullible or dishonest
November 29, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Telegraph, Feb-25: "A major US investor (James Fishback) with close links to Trump has said he would avoid ever investing in 'backwards' Britain"
This week: "Fishback's ... Tesla was just repo'd by the US Marshals & he still owes over 200k in civil penalties"
Telegraph was gullible or dishonest
This week: "Fishback's ... Tesla was just repo'd by the US Marshals & he still owes over 200k in civil penalties"
Telegraph was gullible or dishonest
That escalated fast
14-Nov: "Domino’s $DOM turns to fried chicken as chief says Britain nearing peak pizza" (FT)
Today: "Andrew Rennie is stepping down as CEO ... with immediate effect" (RNS)
www.ft.com/content/23c2...
14-Nov: "Domino’s $DOM turns to fried chicken as chief says Britain nearing peak pizza" (FT)
Today: "Andrew Rennie is stepping down as CEO ... with immediate effect" (RNS)
www.ft.com/content/23c2...
November 25, 2025 at 1:34 PM
That escalated fast
14-Nov: "Domino’s $DOM turns to fried chicken as chief says Britain nearing peak pizza" (FT)
Today: "Andrew Rennie is stepping down as CEO ... with immediate effect" (RNS)
www.ft.com/content/23c2...
14-Nov: "Domino’s $DOM turns to fried chicken as chief says Britain nearing peak pizza" (FT)
Today: "Andrew Rennie is stepping down as CEO ... with immediate effect" (RNS)
www.ft.com/content/23c2...
"Pret A Manger’s Recipe for a Revival? Meal Deals and £13 Salads"
"At £6 to £7, its own bundled offer is pricier than most supermarkets’ meal deals, which start under £4"
"More than half of Pret’s 500 UK stores" in London
More room for Greggs $GRG
"At £6 to £7, its own bundled offer is pricier than most supermarkets’ meal deals, which start under £4"
"More than half of Pret’s 500 UK stores" in London
More room for Greggs $GRG
Can Pret A Manger Tempt City of London Workers With £13 Salads?
Pret A Manger Ltd.’s former Chief Executive Officer Clive Schlee once pledged that the sandwich and coffee chain would “never, ever do a meal deal.” Now, years later, the lunch spot favored by City of...
www.bloomberg.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:53 AM
"Pret A Manger’s Recipe for a Revival? Meal Deals and £13 Salads"
"At £6 to £7, its own bundled offer is pricier than most supermarkets’ meal deals, which start under £4"
"More than half of Pret’s 500 UK stores" in London
More room for Greggs $GRG
"At £6 to £7, its own bundled offer is pricier than most supermarkets’ meal deals, which start under £4"
"More than half of Pret’s 500 UK stores" in London
More room for Greggs $GRG
"UK supermarkets set to be hit by higher business rates after Treasury U-turn"
May be "increasing business rates on properties with a rateable value of >£500k so as to afford making a temporary discount on the tax for small retail and hospitality premises permanent"
$TSCO $GRG
May be "increasing business rates on properties with a rateable value of >£500k so as to afford making a temporary discount on the tax for small retail and hospitality premises permanent"
$TSCO $GRG
UK supermarkets set to be hit by higher business rates after Treasury U-turn
Chancellor expected to use Budget to include large retail premises in the top band of the property-based levy
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:36 AM
"UK supermarkets set to be hit by higher business rates after Treasury U-turn"
May be "increasing business rates on properties with a rateable value of >£500k so as to afford making a temporary discount on the tax for small retail and hospitality premises permanent"
$TSCO $GRG
May be "increasing business rates on properties with a rateable value of >£500k so as to afford making a temporary discount on the tax for small retail and hospitality premises permanent"
$TSCO $GRG
"Fruit flavors represent about 1/4 of all OST sales when excluding mint and wintergreen flavors ... Watermelon is ... the fastest-growing fruit flavor in the nicotine pouch category"
- Turning Point Brands $TPB (25Q3 call)
Philip Morris $PM stated US ZYN use was 62% Mint in 2023
- Turning Point Brands $TPB (25Q3 call)
Philip Morris $PM stated US ZYN use was 62% Mint in 2023
November 24, 2025 at 8:00 PM
"Fruit flavors represent about 1/4 of all OST sales when excluding mint and wintergreen flavors ... Watermelon is ... the fastest-growing fruit flavor in the nicotine pouch category"
- Turning Point Brands $TPB (25Q3 call)
Philip Morris $PM stated US ZYN use was 62% Mint in 2023
- Turning Point Brands $TPB (25Q3 call)
Philip Morris $PM stated US ZYN use was 62% Mint in 2023
Philip Morris $PM ZYN nicotine pouches now sources
- 22% of US users from Oral/Other
- 60% of European ex. Nordic users from Oral
$SWMA used to source 50% of US ZYN users from Oral (20Q1 call)
ZYN sourcing in US has broadened significantly with PM
Sourcing in Europe may follow
- 22% of US users from Oral/Other
- 60% of European ex. Nordic users from Oral
$SWMA used to source 50% of US ZYN users from Oral (20Q1 call)
ZYN sourcing in US has broadened significantly with PM
Sourcing in Europe may follow
November 24, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Philip Morris $PM ZYN nicotine pouches now sources
- 22% of US users from Oral/Other
- 60% of European ex. Nordic users from Oral
$SWMA used to source 50% of US ZYN users from Oral (20Q1 call)
ZYN sourcing in US has broadened significantly with PM
Sourcing in Europe may follow
- 22% of US users from Oral/Other
- 60% of European ex. Nordic users from Oral
$SWMA used to source 50% of US ZYN users from Oral (20Q1 call)
ZYN sourcing in US has broadened significantly with PM
Sourcing in Europe may follow
Beauty market as best indicator of consumer health?
Unaffected by rates (like HD), GLP-1 (DGE), vapes (MO)
US Beauty market grew +3.9% in Q3 (Q2: +2%)
$OR N America LfL sales +1.4%, US sell-out +6%
$EL Americas sales -2% organic, US Skin Care retail sales +8% (vs. category +6%)
Unaffected by rates (like HD), GLP-1 (DGE), vapes (MO)
US Beauty market grew +3.9% in Q3 (Q2: +2%)
$OR N America LfL sales +1.4%, US sell-out +6%
$EL Americas sales -2% organic, US Skin Care retail sales +8% (vs. category +6%)
November 24, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Beauty market as best indicator of consumer health?
Unaffected by rates (like HD), GLP-1 (DGE), vapes (MO)
US Beauty market grew +3.9% in Q3 (Q2: +2%)
$OR N America LfL sales +1.4%, US sell-out +6%
$EL Americas sales -2% organic, US Skin Care retail sales +8% (vs. category +6%)
Unaffected by rates (like HD), GLP-1 (DGE), vapes (MO)
US Beauty market grew +3.9% in Q3 (Q2: +2%)
$OR N America LfL sales +1.4%, US sell-out +6%
$EL Americas sales -2% organic, US Skin Care retail sales +8% (vs. category +6%)
$META new data centre off-the-books
20/80 JV with Blue Owl Capital funds
Vehicle sold $27.3bn of bonds, "mostly to PIMCO"
Meta "bears the risks of cost overruns", "provided a residual-value guarantee to cover bondholders for the full amount owed if Meta doesn’t renew its lease or terminates early"
20/80 JV with Blue Owl Capital funds
Vehicle sold $27.3bn of bonds, "mostly to PIMCO"
Meta "bears the risks of cost overruns", "provided a residual-value guarantee to cover bondholders for the full amount owed if Meta doesn’t renew its lease or terminates early"
"It seems like a marvel of financial engineering: Meta is building a $27 billion data center in Louisiana, financed with debt, and neither the data center nor the debt will be on its own balance sheet."
AI Meets Aggressive Accounting at Meta’s Gigantic New Data Center
Favorable treatment off the balance sheet hinges on some convenient assumptions.
www.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:22 PM
$META new data centre off-the-books
20/80 JV with Blue Owl Capital funds
Vehicle sold $27.3bn of bonds, "mostly to PIMCO"
Meta "bears the risks of cost overruns", "provided a residual-value guarantee to cover bondholders for the full amount owed if Meta doesn’t renew its lease or terminates early"
20/80 JV with Blue Owl Capital funds
Vehicle sold $27.3bn of bonds, "mostly to PIMCO"
Meta "bears the risks of cost overruns", "provided a residual-value guarantee to cover bondholders for the full amount owed if Meta doesn’t renew its lease or terminates early"
Businesses who advertise more don't always offer the better products, Google Search edition
"Americans Googling Obamacare Are Finding “Junk Insurance” Instead"
No s***, Sherlock
"Google’s AI overviews were more likely to point to official sites"
$GOOG
"Americans Googling Obamacare Are Finding “Junk Insurance” Instead"
No s***, Sherlock
"Google’s AI overviews were more likely to point to official sites"
$GOOG
Americans Googling Obamacare Are Finding 'Junk Insurance' Instead
During open enrollment, ads from telemarketers are crowding out official health exchanges.
www.bloomberg.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Businesses who advertise more don't always offer the better products, Google Search edition
"Americans Googling Obamacare Are Finding “Junk Insurance” Instead"
No s***, Sherlock
"Google’s AI overviews were more likely to point to official sites"
$GOOG
"Americans Googling Obamacare Are Finding “Junk Insurance” Instead"
No s***, Sherlock
"Google’s AI overviews were more likely to point to official sites"
$GOOG
"Trump Says He Wants Alternate Health Care Plan ‘Done’ by Jan 30"
"Rick Scott & Katie Britt are working on the proposal"
Rick Scott was HCA's CEO in 2003 when it settled the "largerst health care fraud case in US history" (DOJ) for $1.7bn (among others)
"Rick Scott & Katie Britt are working on the proposal"
Rick Scott was HCA's CEO in 2003 when it settled the "largerst health care fraud case in US history" (DOJ) for $1.7bn (among others)
Trump Says He Wants Alternate Health Care Plan ‘Done’ by Jan. 30
President Donald Trump said he hopes to secure a solution by Jan. 30 for an impending surge in health insurance premiums for millions of Americans, the first timeline he has publicly offered for what ...
www.bloomberg.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:07 AM
"Trump Says He Wants Alternate Health Care Plan ‘Done’ by Jan 30"
"Rick Scott & Katie Britt are working on the proposal"
Rick Scott was HCA's CEO in 2003 when it settled the "largerst health care fraud case in US history" (DOJ) for $1.7bn (among others)
"Rick Scott & Katie Britt are working on the proposal"
Rick Scott was HCA's CEO in 2003 when it settled the "largerst health care fraud case in US history" (DOJ) for $1.7bn (among others)
"Celebrities Are Making Smoking Cigarettes Cool Again" (WSJ)
"Cigarettes resurface in pop music and movies"
"US smoking rates are hovering at their lowest level in decades", at 6% for <30
"Vaping ... has become the most commonly used tobacco product among youth"
$MO $BATS $PM
"Cigarettes resurface in pop music and movies"
"US smoking rates are hovering at their lowest level in decades", at 6% for <30
"Vaping ... has become the most commonly used tobacco product among youth"
$MO $BATS $PM
Celebrities Are Making Smoking Cigarettes Cool Again
Cigarettes are resurfacing in pop music and movies, raising fears that a yearslong decline in smoking rates could reverse.
www.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:02 AM
"Celebrities Are Making Smoking Cigarettes Cool Again" (WSJ)
"Cigarettes resurface in pop music and movies"
"US smoking rates are hovering at their lowest level in decades", at 6% for <30
"Vaping ... has become the most commonly used tobacco product among youth"
$MO $BATS $PM
"Cigarettes resurface in pop music and movies"
"US smoking rates are hovering at their lowest level in decades", at 6% for <30
"Vaping ... has become the most commonly used tobacco product among youth"
$MO $BATS $PM
"Inside Marriott’s $MAR Disastrous Bet on Short-Term Rental Company Sonder" (WSJ)
Only $17.7m, but Sonder collapsed within 15 months of MAR investing
Also, Sonder "leased its properties, furnished the units, then rented them to guests", opposite of MAR network/franchisee model
Only $17.7m, but Sonder collapsed within 15 months of MAR investing
Also, Sonder "leased its properties, furnished the units, then rented them to guests", opposite of MAR network/franchisee model
Inside Marriott’s Disastrous Bet on Short-Term Rental Company Sonder
Investment in Sonder added rooms, but apartment-rental company collapsed under high-cost leases. ‘Everything kind of went straight downhill,’ said one manager.
www.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:56 AM
"Inside Marriott’s $MAR Disastrous Bet on Short-Term Rental Company Sonder" (WSJ)
Only $17.7m, but Sonder collapsed within 15 months of MAR investing
Also, Sonder "leased its properties, furnished the units, then rented them to guests", opposite of MAR network/franchisee model
Only $17.7m, but Sonder collapsed within 15 months of MAR investing
Also, Sonder "leased its properties, furnished the units, then rented them to guests", opposite of MAR network/franchisee model
"Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess" (Bloomberg)
"Counting new and existing homes, plus inventory, the sector was worth about $52 trillion in 2019 — about 2x the size of the US real estate market"
"Property craze was powered by debt"
$OTIS $KNEBV
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"Counting new and existing homes, plus inventory, the sector was worth about $52 trillion in 2019 — about 2x the size of the US real estate market"
"Property craze was powered by debt"
$OTIS $KNEBV
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 24, 2025 at 7:45 AM
"Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess" (Bloomberg)
"Counting new and existing homes, plus inventory, the sector was worth about $52 trillion in 2019 — about 2x the size of the US real estate market"
"Property craze was powered by debt"
$OTIS $KNEBV
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"Counting new and existing homes, plus inventory, the sector was worth about $52 trillion in 2019 — about 2x the size of the US real estate market"
"Property craze was powered by debt"
$OTIS $KNEBV
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"Alphabet: Reaching $300 (Quick Note)"
Generative AI has been helpful to Alphabet, but not in the way many people think
Valuation remains reasonable
$GOOG
Generative AI has been helpful to Alphabet, but not in the way many people think
Valuation remains reasonable
$GOOG
Alphabet: Reaching $300 (Quick Note)
Generative AI has been helpful to Alphabet, but not in the way many people think.
open.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 11:00 PM
"Alphabet: Reaching $300 (Quick Note)"
Generative AI has been helpful to Alphabet, but not in the way many people think
Valuation remains reasonable
$GOOG
Generative AI has been helpful to Alphabet, but not in the way many people think
Valuation remains reasonable
$GOOG
"‘The next China is China’: Estée Lauder $EL chief doubles down in the east" (FT)
"Over the past year Estée launched The Ordinary in China, and opened a flagship store for Aveda in Shanghai and new stores for Le Labo fragrances"
"Over the past year Estée launched The Ordinary in China, and opened a flagship store for Aveda in Shanghai and new stores for Le Labo fragrances"
‘The next China is China’: Estée Lauder chief doubles down in the east
Stéphane de La Faverie remains committed to country at centre of beauty group’s recent troubles
www.ft.com
November 23, 2025 at 4:26 PM
"‘The next China is China’: Estée Lauder $EL chief doubles down in the east" (FT)
"Over the past year Estée launched The Ordinary in China, and opened a flagship store for Aveda in Shanghai and new stores for Le Labo fragrances"
"Over the past year Estée launched The Ordinary in China, and opened a flagship store for Aveda in Shanghai and new stores for Le Labo fragrances"
"Moderna is most shorted stock in S&P 500 as Americans skip jabs"
"No. of Americans getting Covid shots is down about 24% from this point last year"
"Moderna has been unprofitable since 2023 ... revenues have dropped by >80% from 2021"
$MRNA $PFE $CRDA
"No. of Americans getting Covid shots is down about 24% from this point last year"
"Moderna has been unprofitable since 2023 ... revenues have dropped by >80% from 2021"
$MRNA $PFE $CRDA
Moderna is most shorted stock in S&P 500 as Americans skip jabs
Maker of Covid-19 shots has slumped since pandemic as people turn against vaccines
www.ft.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:33 PM
"Moderna is most shorted stock in S&P 500 as Americans skip jabs"
"No. of Americans getting Covid shots is down about 24% from this point last year"
"Moderna has been unprofitable since 2023 ... revenues have dropped by >80% from 2021"
$MRNA $PFE $CRDA
"No. of Americans getting Covid shots is down about 24% from this point last year"
"Moderna has been unprofitable since 2023 ... revenues have dropped by >80% from 2021"
$MRNA $PFE $CRDA
Investors have likely integrated Substack into their day-to-day, signing up with work addresses
Good: I can see paid subscribers' real names + where they work (institutions, media, etc.)
Bad: Almost no one comments, likely because they are not anonymous to creators
Trying to solve this - ideas?
Good: I can see paid subscribers' real names + where they work (institutions, media, etc.)
Bad: Almost no one comments, likely because they are not anonymous to creators
Trying to solve this - ideas?
November 23, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Investors have likely integrated Substack into their day-to-day, signing up with work addresses
Good: I can see paid subscribers' real names + where they work (institutions, media, etc.)
Bad: Almost no one comments, likely because they are not anonymous to creators
Trying to solve this - ideas?
Good: I can see paid subscribers' real names + where they work (institutions, media, etc.)
Bad: Almost no one comments, likely because they are not anonymous to creators
Trying to solve this - ideas?
"Judge shows reluctance to break up Google ads business in US monopoly case" (FT)
Judge Brinkema "said the DoJ’s request was a “dramatic change” that would not be as “easily enforceable” as the resolution Google $GOOG has proposed"
Judge Brinkema "said the DoJ’s request was a “dramatic change” that would not be as “easily enforceable” as the resolution Google $GOOG has proposed"
Judge shows reluctance to break up Google ads business in US monopoly case
Judge Leonie Brinkema said a ‘dramatic’ forced sale may not be ‘easily enforceable’
www.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 2:37 AM
"Judge shows reluctance to break up Google ads business in US monopoly case" (FT)
Judge Brinkema "said the DoJ’s request was a “dramatic change” that would not be as “easily enforceable” as the resolution Google $GOOG has proposed"
Judge Brinkema "said the DoJ’s request was a “dramatic change” that would not be as “easily enforceable” as the resolution Google $GOOG has proposed"
"Former portfolio manager" wants to legalise insider trader because tech means people can follow them
🤡
🤡
November 21, 2025 at 10:15 PM
"Former portfolio manager" wants to legalise insider trader because tech means people can follow them
🤡
🤡
Many people are wrong about how AI changes Search ads because they think of their own search experiences
But only a minority of searches are monetized
Barclays analyst: "About 20% of Google's Search queries are commercial historically" (25Q3 call)
$GOOG mgmt. didn't disagree
But only a minority of searches are monetized
Barclays analyst: "About 20% of Google's Search queries are commercial historically" (25Q3 call)
$GOOG mgmt. didn't disagree
November 21, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Many people are wrong about how AI changes Search ads because they think of their own search experiences
But only a minority of searches are monetized
Barclays analyst: "About 20% of Google's Search queries are commercial historically" (25Q3 call)
$GOOG mgmt. didn't disagree
But only a minority of searches are monetized
Barclays analyst: "About 20% of Google's Search queries are commercial historically" (25Q3 call)
$GOOG mgmt. didn't disagree
Paid subscriptions are better than ads, YouTube edition
"On average, a YouTube Music & Premium subscriber generates a meaningful higher (sic) gross profit than they were as simply an ad-supported users"
- Philip Schindler, SVP and CBO, $GOOG 25Q3 call
"On average, a YouTube Music & Premium subscriber generates a meaningful higher (sic) gross profit than they were as simply an ad-supported users"
- Philip Schindler, SVP and CBO, $GOOG 25Q3 call
November 21, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Paid subscriptions are better than ads, YouTube edition
"On average, a YouTube Music & Premium subscriber generates a meaningful higher (sic) gross profit than they were as simply an ad-supported users"
- Philip Schindler, SVP and CBO, $GOOG 25Q3 call
"On average, a YouTube Music & Premium subscriber generates a meaningful higher (sic) gross profit than they were as simply an ad-supported users"
- Philip Schindler, SVP and CBO, $GOOG 25Q3 call
"Young workers in line for 8% pay rise in Budget" (FT)
Minimum wage for 18-21 expected to rise 8% (from £10)
Minimum wage for 21+ expected to rise 4.1% to £12.71
Ministers told Low Pay Commission "to find a route to a single rate for all over-18s"
$GRG
Minimum wage for 18-21 expected to rise 8% (from £10)
Minimum wage for 21+ expected to rise 4.1% to £12.71
Ministers told Low Pay Commission "to find a route to a single rate for all over-18s"
$GRG
Young workers in line for 8% pay rise in Budget
Recommendation by Low Pay Commission adds to pressures on chancellor
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:34 PM
"Young workers in line for 8% pay rise in Budget" (FT)
Minimum wage for 18-21 expected to rise 8% (from £10)
Minimum wage for 21+ expected to rise 4.1% to £12.71
Ministers told Low Pay Commission "to find a route to a single rate for all over-18s"
$GRG
Minimum wage for 18-21 expected to rise 8% (from £10)
Minimum wage for 21+ expected to rise 4.1% to £12.71
Ministers told Low Pay Commission "to find a route to a single rate for all over-18s"
$GRG