Librarian Capital
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librariancapital.bsky.social
Librarian Capital
@librariancapital.bsky.social
Investing/stocks. Ex. HF seeking ideas, contacts & capital. I may be long/short names mentioned. @LibrarianCap on Twitter. Also Substack https://librariancapital.substack.com/
Pinned
We publish research on interesting stocks on Substack
Growing archive of reports on dozens of companies

"Institutional-grade research at retail prices"
Includes 15-stock model portfolio updated monthly

Follow the link below, or see address on screenshot
librariancapital.substack.com
Brown-Forman $BF.B on US Spirits market

"Total Distilled Spirits trends have decelerated, but continue to decline at a low single-digit rate, as consumers are pressured to make their dollars stretch further"

(FY26Q2 call)
December 4, 2025 at 9:38 PM
$MSCI's new All Country Private Equity Index will feature daily values based on MSCI guesses

"Proprietary private equity nowcasting model ... incorporates GPreported NAVs, historical relationships between public and PE returns, and the evolving availability of fund valuations"
December 4, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Fever-Tree $FEVR: Vitaliy Katsenelson (IMA) is a fan

"I absolutely love the company’s obsession with quality ... importing three types of ginger from day one ... importing quinine ... from the same place in the Congo for over 20 years"

(They are long)

vitaliy.substack.com/p/surroundin...
December 4, 2025 at 7:52 PM
"European Union Reaches a Deal to Allow Gene Editing in Farming"

"Examples of gene editing range from pigs resistant to a reproductive and respiratory syndrome to bananas that don’t brown and rice that requires fewer pesticides"

$GNS
European Union negotiators reached a deal on new rules that pave the way for gene editing, a technique that will help farmers produce healthier animals and crops as they adjust to climate change.
European Union Reaches a Deal to Allow Gene Editing in Farming
European Union negotiators reached a deal on new rules that pave the way for gene editing, a technique that will help farmers produce healthier animals and crops as they adjust to climate change.
bloom.bg
December 4, 2025 at 7:05 PM
P&G $PG CFO on innovation:

"What drove the innovation ramp up was an insight about 2 years ago that the industry at large had driven growth via a lot of price/mix, and exclusively via price/mix, for a period of time ... that growth trajectory was not going to hold"

(MS conf.)
December 4, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Philip Morris $PM: One can debate if US ZYN prices need to be cut further, but this is what their P&L look like in Q3 when they were giving cans away FREE

Revenues +5.9%*
EBIT +7.5%
EPS +13.1%
(organic, adjusted)

* Reduced by a model change in Indonesia that is profit-neutral
December 4, 2025 at 5:34 PM
British American Tobacco $BATS $BTI: Will sell 7-15.3% stake in ITC Hotels (out of 15.3% held)

(The entire stake is worth £550m at latest prices)

Proceeds will be used to cut debt (H1 net debt: £29.7bn)

This is long expected, as BAT was clear it had no interest owning hotels
December 4, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Brown-Forman $BF.B FY26Q2 (Aug-Oct)

Q2 sales -2% organic (Q1: +1%, PY: +3%)

H2 sales flat organic (PY: flat)
US flat, Dev. Int'l -6%, EM +12%, Travel Retail +6%
Whiskey flat, RTD +5%, Tequila -3%
EBIT -4% organic

Reiterates FY26 outlook
Sales -LSD organic
EBIT -LSD organic
December 4, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Overpaying for a stock is a much harder mistake to overcome if earnings growth is weak

Both Altria $MO and British American Tobacco $BTI are still ~20% lower than their 2017 peak

Including dividends, holders would have made ~15% in the past ~10 years
December 4, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Bloomberg trying hard to make Proya look credible

On a chart comparing Proya sales with L'Oréal and Estée Lauder, they plot only $OR's Dermatology Beauty sales (16% of group sales)

Had they included all OR sales, it would be 3x the size of $EL, and Proya would be barely visible
December 4, 2025 at 12:40 PM
"India Court Allows Dr. Reddy’s to Export Generics of Novo Nordisk’s Semaglutide Drug" (Bloomberg)

"Ahead of global patent expiries in 2026"

Dr. Reddy made "commitment that it will not sell the products in the local market until Novo’s patent lapses"

$NOVO $LLY
India Court Allows Dr. Reddy’s to Export Generics of Novo Nordisk’s Semaglutide Drug
An Indian court has allowed Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. to manufacture and export generic versions of Novo Nordisk A/S’s obesity and diabetes drugs, ahead of global patent expiries in 2026.
www.bloomberg.com
December 4, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Watches of Switzerland $WOSG revenues up 10% ex-FX in FY26H1, but Adj. EBIT only up 6%

Growth also uneven, with US (48% of group) +20% but UK and Europe each +2%

US growth in part due to tariffs: "Several brands raised prices ... in response to ongoing cost pressures" (though Adj. EBIT +21%)
December 4, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Charlie Munger quoted as saying: "Take out Berkshire’s top five investments and its returns are pretty middling"

This was also true of Ben Graham (with GEICO), and of recent performance in the S&P 500, the FTSE, etc.

Concentration of outcome is a natural phenomenon
"The Untold Story of Charlie Munger’s Final Years" (WSJ)

This: "His last delivery was Korean fried chicken: A whole chicken, kimchi fried rice and waffle fries"

Food of the gods
Exclusive | The Untold Story of Charlie Munger’s Final Years
The Berkshire vice chair was making gutsy investments, forging unlikely friendships and facing new challenges to the end.
www.wsj.com
December 4, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Imperial Brands $IMB saw US illicits improving

"Significant step up in the FDA ... The rhetoric was always there, but we also see now action coming, much more enforcement at the ports, etc. We've seen some impact"

Analyst stated combustible market vol. fell 7.5% L3M

(MS conf.)
December 3, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Marketing e-mail from a firm founded by "value" manager whose flagship fund lost 55% in 2008 (S&P 500 lost 37%):

"We believe there are two ways to beat the market as long-only equity investors: 1. Pick stocks better than the index"

Their no. 2 is leverage

It's a S&P 500 ETF with up to 2x leverage
December 3, 2025 at 8:59 PM
"Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair" (FT)

It's strange Wall Street is not inspired by the man who predicted COVID-19 would be over by May 2020 based on his Excel model and is sycophantic even by Trump/MAGA standards
Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair
Some market participants worried candidate for top central bank job will be swayed by Trump on interest rates
www.ft.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Cricket as a bridge between APAC nations

Visa $V President: "If you're Indonesia and you neighbor Australia ... you don't have that much to talk about. Trust me, I've been in the room while they're at a client conference, they literally ... end up talking about cricket"

(UBS conf.)
December 3, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Visa $V on consumer trends (both US & cross-border):

"Stable and strong ... From October 1 until November 30, it's very similar trends to what we reported for those first 3 weeks of October"

(President Oliver Jenkyn at UBS conf.)
December 3, 2025 at 6:12 PM
The Negotiator: "Claim: Rightmove fees to outpace agents’ earnings for third year running"

The methodology here is flawed because it is comparing the average Rightmove $RMV fee PER MONTH with the average agent earning PER PROPERTY, and the RMV fee figure is also inflated by people upgrading
December 3, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Reposted by Librarian Capital
Agents in Key Largo, Florida ripped this woman wearing medical scrubs out of her car as she screamed she is a US citizen. Agents cuffed her and put her in one of their cars.

She was eventually let go, per David Goodhue of the Miami Herald, who also took this footage:
December 3, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Estée Lauder $EL Chief Digital & Marketing Officer* on AI:

"AI is changing the game completely because you can also start now to actually personalize the content ... to very specific individuals and serving it on the platforms where they are"

* ex-Nestlé and Google

(MS conf.)
December 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
"FDA Launches Web-Based Tobacco Premarket Application Forms to Enhance Submission Process"

Cutting-edge technology adoption in the year 2025 ...

"Applicants can continue to download the PDF version of the forms"

$MO $PM $BTI
December 3, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Microsoft $MSFT: AI agents need subscriptions too

"An organization in the future, it's going to have more agents than people. Many of these agents are going to be embodied ... They're going to need a computer ... Embodied agents are seat opportunities"

(EVP of Experiences & Devices, UBS conf.)
December 3, 2025 at 3:57 PM
"Donald Trump Jr-backed start-up scores $600mn US federal government deal" (FT)

"Vulcan Elements will receive a $620mn loan" from DoD

It raised money from 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. "joined in 2024 and is a partner in the eight-person firm"
Donald Trump Jr-backed start-up scores $600mn US federal government deal
President’s son’s fund 1789 Capital poised to capitalise from father’s administration
www.ft.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Smithson $SSON NAV -2.8% in Nov-25 (benchmark +0.3%); now +1.5% YTD vs. benchmark +10.9%

Top 5 detractors were Doximity, Paycom, Ambu, Sabre and HMS Networks

Now +7.3% p.a. since inception vs. benchmark +8.8%

"Began buying a new position"
December 3, 2025 at 8:29 AM