Librarian Capital
@librariancapital.bsky.social
Investing/stocks. Ex. HF seeking ideas, contacts & capital. I may be long/short names mentioned. @LibrarianCap on Twitter. Also Substack https://librariancapital.substack.com/
Small print and charges are an issue, but I worry much more about the performance of the average fund being quite bad
x.com/LibrarianCap...
x.com/LibrarianCap...
November 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Small print and charges are an issue, but I worry much more about the performance of the average fund being quite bad
x.com/LibrarianCap...
x.com/LibrarianCap...
For people who plot a bunch of Greggs $GRG ROCE figures on a line chart like it is some kind of magic, IFRS 16 means ROCE took a 13 ppt hit in 2019 and are not comparable before that
November 29, 2025 at 10:42 AM
For people who plot a bunch of Greggs $GRG ROCE figures on a line chart like it is some kind of magic, IFRS 16 means ROCE took a 13 ppt hit in 2019 and are not comparable before that
Yes, the very one. They paid him $975k in 2022
x.com/LibrarianCap...
x.com/LibrarianCap...
November 29, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Yes, the very one. They paid him $975k in 2022
x.com/LibrarianCap...
x.com/LibrarianCap...
Greggs $GRG leases most of its shops
At 2024 year-end, they had 2,618 shops*, right-of-uses equipment assets were valued at £377.3m, which works out to be an average £145k per shop
Many GRG shops are small, but they have been moving into larger premises
(* includes franchises)
At 2024 year-end, they had 2,618 shops*, right-of-uses equipment assets were valued at £377.3m, which works out to be an average £145k per shop
Many GRG shops are small, but they have been moving into larger premises
(* includes franchises)
November 29, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Greggs $GRG leases most of its shops
At 2024 year-end, they had 2,618 shops*, right-of-uses equipment assets were valued at £377.3m, which works out to be an average £145k per shop
Many GRG shops are small, but they have been moving into larger premises
(* includes franchises)
At 2024 year-end, they had 2,618 shops*, right-of-uses equipment assets were valued at £377.3m, which works out to be an average £145k per shop
Many GRG shops are small, but they have been moving into larger premises
(* includes franchises)
Greggs $GRG: Re-valuation on premises (from 2021 to 2024) will mean significant increases in Business Rates
Transition relief will cap increase each year, e.g. to 30% in FY26/26 (many Greggs shops smaller)
Also, Shop Occupancy just 7% of Greggs cost base
h/t Dan Neidle x.com/DanNeidle/st...
Transition relief will cap increase each year, e.g. to 30% in FY26/26 (many Greggs shops smaller)
Also, Shop Occupancy just 7% of Greggs cost base
h/t Dan Neidle x.com/DanNeidle/st...
November 29, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Greggs $GRG: Re-valuation on premises (from 2021 to 2024) will mean significant increases in Business Rates
Transition relief will cap increase each year, e.g. to 30% in FY26/26 (many Greggs shops smaller)
Also, Shop Occupancy just 7% of Greggs cost base
h/t Dan Neidle x.com/DanNeidle/st...
Transition relief will cap increase each year, e.g. to 30% in FY26/26 (many Greggs shops smaller)
Also, Shop Occupancy just 7% of Greggs cost base
h/t Dan Neidle x.com/DanNeidle/st...
Greggs $GRG: Value investor Silchester disclosed new 5% stake this week (was zero)
At Fri closing price, this stake is worth £80m
At Fri closing price, this stake is worth £80m
November 29, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Greggs $GRG: Value investor Silchester disclosed new 5% stake this week (was zero)
At Fri closing price, this stake is worth £80m
At Fri closing price, this stake is worth £80m
Telegraph, Feb-25: "A major US investor (James Fishback) with close links to Trump has said he would avoid ever investing in 'backwards' Britain"
This week: "Fishback's ... Tesla was just repo'd by the US Marshals & he still owes over 200k in civil penalties"
Telegraph was gullible or dishonest
This week: "Fishback's ... Tesla was just repo'd by the US Marshals & he still owes over 200k in civil penalties"
Telegraph was gullible or dishonest
November 29, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Telegraph, Feb-25: "A major US investor (James Fishback) with close links to Trump has said he would avoid ever investing in 'backwards' Britain"
This week: "Fishback's ... Tesla was just repo'd by the US Marshals & he still owes over 200k in civil penalties"
Telegraph was gullible or dishonest
This week: "Fishback's ... Tesla was just repo'd by the US Marshals & he still owes over 200k in civil penalties"
Telegraph was gullible or dishonest
FT article: "Domino’s was among the bidders circling Wingstop’s UK franchise last year ... (Rennie) said he was eager to acquire a brand at a “much lower” price tag"
November 25, 2025 at 1:37 PM
FT article: "Domino’s was among the bidders circling Wingstop’s UK franchise last year ... (Rennie) said he was eager to acquire a brand at a “much lower” price tag"
That escalated fast
14-Nov: "Domino’s $DOM turns to fried chicken as chief says Britain nearing peak pizza" (FT)
Today: "Andrew Rennie is stepping down as CEO ... with immediate effect" (RNS)
www.ft.com/content/23c2...
14-Nov: "Domino’s $DOM turns to fried chicken as chief says Britain nearing peak pizza" (FT)
Today: "Andrew Rennie is stepping down as CEO ... with immediate effect" (RNS)
www.ft.com/content/23c2...
November 25, 2025 at 1:34 PM
That escalated fast
14-Nov: "Domino’s $DOM turns to fried chicken as chief says Britain nearing peak pizza" (FT)
Today: "Andrew Rennie is stepping down as CEO ... with immediate effect" (RNS)
www.ft.com/content/23c2...
14-Nov: "Domino’s $DOM turns to fried chicken as chief says Britain nearing peak pizza" (FT)
Today: "Andrew Rennie is stepping down as CEO ... with immediate effect" (RNS)
www.ft.com/content/23c2...
Greggs $GRG strategy against supermarkets is to match prices, compete on quality & range
"Our aim is to be in line with supermarkets on price, but with a significantly better quality product ... (and) added value products that supermarkets cannot deliver" (CEO, 25H1 call)
"Our aim is to be in line with supermarkets on price, but with a significantly better quality product ... (and) added value products that supermarkets cannot deliver" (CEO, 25H1 call)
November 25, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Greggs $GRG strategy against supermarkets is to match prices, compete on quality & range
"Our aim is to be in line with supermarkets on price, but with a significantly better quality product ... (and) added value products that supermarkets cannot deliver" (CEO, 25H1 call)
"Our aim is to be in line with supermarkets on price, but with a significantly better quality product ... (and) added value products that supermarkets cannot deliver" (CEO, 25H1 call)
Philip Morris $PM ZYN nicotine pouches now sources
- 22% of US users from Oral/Other
- 60% of European ex. Nordic users from Oral
$SWMA used to source 50% of US ZYN users from Oral (20Q1 call)
ZYN sourcing in US has broadened significantly with PM
Sourcing in Europe may follow
- 22% of US users from Oral/Other
- 60% of European ex. Nordic users from Oral
$SWMA used to source 50% of US ZYN users from Oral (20Q1 call)
ZYN sourcing in US has broadened significantly with PM
Sourcing in Europe may follow
November 24, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Philip Morris $PM ZYN nicotine pouches now sources
- 22% of US users from Oral/Other
- 60% of European ex. Nordic users from Oral
$SWMA used to source 50% of US ZYN users from Oral (20Q1 call)
ZYN sourcing in US has broadened significantly with PM
Sourcing in Europe may follow
- 22% of US users from Oral/Other
- 60% of European ex. Nordic users from Oral
$SWMA used to source 50% of US ZYN users from Oral (20Q1 call)
ZYN sourcing in US has broadened significantly with PM
Sourcing in Europe may follow
$GOOG up another 5% the day after this note
November 24, 2025 at 3:58 PM
$GOOG up another 5% the day after this note
There is also £93k in an ISA, which alone would have accounted for 25% (£37k) of the £148k inheritance tax bill
November 24, 2025 at 1:25 PM
There is also £93k in an ISA, which alone would have accounted for 25% (£37k) of the £148k inheritance tax bill
Article acknowledges this:
"This might come as no surprise ... When people look for cruise trips or refrigerators, they expect to see ads from companies selling those products"
"But health insurance searches are different"
They are not. Assuming otherwise was the mistake
"This might come as no surprise ... When people look for cruise trips or refrigerators, they expect to see ads from companies selling those products"
"But health insurance searches are different"
They are not. Assuming otherwise was the mistake
November 24, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Article acknowledges this:
"This might come as no surprise ... When people look for cruise trips or refrigerators, they expect to see ads from companies selling those products"
"But health insurance searches are different"
They are not. Assuming otherwise was the mistake
"This might come as no surprise ... When people look for cruise trips or refrigerators, they expect to see ads from companies selling those products"
"But health insurance searches are different"
They are not. Assuming otherwise was the mistake
Bloomberg: For-profit middlemen are buying ads for the key word "Obamacare"
Fun fact: If you search for "hargreaves lansdown", a popular UK retail investment platform, the first result is the "sponsored result" from Interactive Brokers $IBKR
There are lots of examples like this
Fun fact: If you search for "hargreaves lansdown", a popular UK retail investment platform, the first result is the "sponsored result" from Interactive Brokers $IBKR
There are lots of examples like this
November 24, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Bloomberg: For-profit middlemen are buying ads for the key word "Obamacare"
Fun fact: If you search for "hargreaves lansdown", a popular UK retail investment platform, the first result is the "sponsored result" from Interactive Brokers $IBKR
There are lots of examples like this
Fun fact: If you search for "hargreaves lansdown", a popular UK retail investment platform, the first result is the "sponsored result" from Interactive Brokers $IBKR
There are lots of examples like this
Bill Cassidy wants "health savings accounts (which) could be used to pay out-of-pocket expenses and deductibles, but not monthly premiums"
This will bankrupt/kill poor people with major health crisises
Rick Scott wants "restrictions on the funds from being used for abortion"
This will bankrupt/kill poor people with major health crisises
Rick Scott wants "restrictions on the funds from being used for abortion"
November 24, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Bill Cassidy wants "health savings accounts (which) could be used to pay out-of-pocket expenses and deductibles, but not monthly premiums"
This will bankrupt/kill poor people with major health crisises
Rick Scott wants "restrictions on the funds from being used for abortion"
This will bankrupt/kill poor people with major health crisises
Rick Scott wants "restrictions on the funds from being used for abortion"
"Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess" (Bloomberg)
"Counting new and existing homes, plus inventory, the sector was worth about $52 trillion in 2019 — about 2x the size of the US real estate market"
"Property craze was powered by debt"
$OTIS $KNEBV
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"Counting new and existing homes, plus inventory, the sector was worth about $52 trillion in 2019 — about 2x the size of the US real estate market"
"Property craze was powered by debt"
$OTIS $KNEBV
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 24, 2025 at 7:45 AM
"Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess" (Bloomberg)
"Counting new and existing homes, plus inventory, the sector was worth about $52 trillion in 2019 — about 2x the size of the US real estate market"
"Property craze was powered by debt"
$OTIS $KNEBV
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"Counting new and existing homes, plus inventory, the sector was worth about $52 trillion in 2019 — about 2x the size of the US real estate market"
"Property craze was powered by debt"
$OTIS $KNEBV
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Investors have likely integrated Substack into their day-to-day, signing up with work addresses
Good: I can see paid subscribers' real names + where they work (institutions, media, etc.)
Bad: Almost no one comments, likely because they are not anonymous to creators
Trying to solve this - ideas?
Good: I can see paid subscribers' real names + where they work (institutions, media, etc.)
Bad: Almost no one comments, likely because they are not anonymous to creators
Trying to solve this - ideas?
November 23, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Investors have likely integrated Substack into their day-to-day, signing up with work addresses
Good: I can see paid subscribers' real names + where they work (institutions, media, etc.)
Bad: Almost no one comments, likely because they are not anonymous to creators
Trying to solve this - ideas?
Good: I can see paid subscribers' real names + where they work (institutions, media, etc.)
Bad: Almost no one comments, likely because they are not anonymous to creators
Trying to solve this - ideas?
"Former portfolio manager" wants to legalise insider trader because tech means people can follow them
🤡
🤡
November 21, 2025 at 10:15 PM
"Former portfolio manager" wants to legalise insider trader because tech means people can follow them
🤡
🤡
Many people are wrong about how AI changes Search ads because they think of their own search experiences
But only a minority of searches are monetized
Barclays analyst: "About 20% of Google's Search queries are commercial historically" (25Q3 call)
$GOOG mgmt. didn't disagree
But only a minority of searches are monetized
Barclays analyst: "About 20% of Google's Search queries are commercial historically" (25Q3 call)
$GOOG mgmt. didn't disagree
November 21, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Many people are wrong about how AI changes Search ads because they think of their own search experiences
But only a minority of searches are monetized
Barclays analyst: "About 20% of Google's Search queries are commercial historically" (25Q3 call)
$GOOG mgmt. didn't disagree
But only a minority of searches are monetized
Barclays analyst: "About 20% of Google's Search queries are commercial historically" (25Q3 call)
$GOOG mgmt. didn't disagree
Paid subscriptions are better than ads, YouTube edition
"On average, a YouTube Music & Premium subscriber generates a meaningful higher (sic) gross profit than they were as simply an ad-supported users"
- Philip Schindler, SVP and CBO, $GOOG 25Q3 call
"On average, a YouTube Music & Premium subscriber generates a meaningful higher (sic) gross profit than they were as simply an ad-supported users"
- Philip Schindler, SVP and CBO, $GOOG 25Q3 call
November 21, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Paid subscriptions are better than ads, YouTube edition
"On average, a YouTube Music & Premium subscriber generates a meaningful higher (sic) gross profit than they were as simply an ad-supported users"
- Philip Schindler, SVP and CBO, $GOOG 25Q3 call
"On average, a YouTube Music & Premium subscriber generates a meaningful higher (sic) gross profit than they were as simply an ad-supported users"
- Philip Schindler, SVP and CBO, $GOOG 25Q3 call
Even the Murdoch-owned WSJ had the story on p. A3
(albeit with a misleading title saying "arrested" rather than "executed", and treating Trump's "Death" threat as one about seditious behavior in general in paragraph 3)
(albeit with a misleading title saying "arrested" rather than "executed", and treating Trump's "Death" threat as one about seditious behavior in general in paragraph 3)
November 21, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Even the Murdoch-owned WSJ had the story on p. A3
(albeit with a misleading title saying "arrested" rather than "executed", and treating Trump's "Death" threat as one about seditious behavior in general in paragraph 3)
(albeit with a misleading title saying "arrested" rather than "executed", and treating Trump's "Death" threat as one about seditious behavior in general in paragraph 3)
PS. Figures taken from Whale Wisdom website
These show Fundsmith AUM falling by ~15%, from $23.0bn to $19.8bn, during 25Q3 alone
13-F excludes non-US holdings, so figures understate AUM but overstate portfolio % figures
These show Fundsmith AUM falling by ~15%, from $23.0bn to $19.8bn, during 25Q3 alone
13-F excludes non-US holdings, so figures understate AUM but overstate portfolio % figures
November 21, 2025 at 4:38 PM
PS. Figures taken from Whale Wisdom website
These show Fundsmith AUM falling by ~15%, from $23.0bn to $19.8bn, during 25Q3 alone
13-F excludes non-US holdings, so figures understate AUM but overstate portfolio % figures
These show Fundsmith AUM falling by ~15%, from $23.0bn to $19.8bn, during 25Q3 alone
13-F excludes non-US holdings, so figures understate AUM but overstate portfolio % figures
Fundsmith: Corollary of large outflows is share sales should be seen in perspective
e.g. They sold 20%+ of their Philip Morris, but this just means $PM went from ~7% of portfolio to ~6%*
Other sales may be motivated by fear of concentration
* % from 13-F ignores non-US stocks
e.g. They sold 20%+ of their Philip Morris, but this just means $PM went from ~7% of portfolio to ~6%*
Other sales may be motivated by fear of concentration
* % from 13-F ignores non-US stocks
November 21, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Fundsmith: Corollary of large outflows is share sales should be seen in perspective
e.g. They sold 20%+ of their Philip Morris, but this just means $PM went from ~7% of portfolio to ~6%*
Other sales may be motivated by fear of concentration
* % from 13-F ignores non-US stocks
e.g. They sold 20%+ of their Philip Morris, but this just means $PM went from ~7% of portfolio to ~6%*
Other sales may be motivated by fear of concentration
* % from 13-F ignores non-US stocks