Trevor Larner
@trevorl.bsky.social
NWSL predictions and the Washington Spirit
One more game for the NWSL Championship!
The Elo model favors Gotham FC over the Washington Spirit for the title, though it is in the range of a tossup.
The model generally prefers Gotham's xG performance in the last month or so, and they get credit for winning both playoff games on the road.
The Elo model favors Gotham FC over the Washington Spirit for the title, though it is in the range of a tossup.
The model generally prefers Gotham's xG performance in the last month or so, and they get credit for winning both playoff games on the road.
November 17, 2025 at 4:31 PM
One more game for the NWSL Championship!
The Elo model favors Gotham FC over the Washington Spirit for the title, though it is in the range of a tossup.
The model generally prefers Gotham's xG performance in the last month or so, and they get credit for winning both playoff games on the road.
The Elo model favors Gotham FC over the Washington Spirit for the title, though it is in the range of a tossup.
The model generally prefers Gotham's xG performance in the last month or so, and they get credit for winning both playoff games on the road.
Reposted by Trevor Larner
Create a fucking designated player exception. This league makes me so mad sometimes.
November 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Create a fucking designated player exception. This league makes me so mad sometimes.
Semi-finals for the NWSL start tomorrow! Elo sees the Washington Spirit and Gotham FC as favorites, but neither is an overwhelming favorite, so an upset is definitely possible!
NWSL Probabilities for the semi-finals and finals ⚽
KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.
KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.
November 14, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Semi-finals for the NWSL start tomorrow! Elo sees the Washington Spirit and Gotham FC as favorites, but neither is an overwhelming favorite, so an upset is definitely possible!
NWSL Probabilities for the semi-finals and finals ⚽
KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.
KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.
November 10, 2025 at 12:40 AM
NWSL Probabilities for the semi-finals and finals ⚽
KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.
KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.
Reposted by Trevor Larner
The @americansocceranalysis.com model is driven by the possession value ratings of the players in the announced XIs.
The Elo model from @trevorl.bsky.social uses team xG and raw goals from the 2025 regular season.
The model from @qebrian.bsky.social uses xG and some strength adjustments.
The Elo model from @trevorl.bsky.social uses team xG and raw goals from the 2025 regular season.
The model from @qebrian.bsky.social uses xG and some strength adjustments.
November 9, 2025 at 5:12 PM
The @americansocceranalysis.com model is driven by the possession value ratings of the players in the announced XIs.
The Elo model from @trevorl.bsky.social uses team xG and raw goals from the 2025 regular season.
The model from @qebrian.bsky.social uses xG and some strength adjustments.
The Elo model from @trevorl.bsky.social uses team xG and raw goals from the 2025 regular season.
The model from @qebrian.bsky.social uses xG and some strength adjustments.
NWSL playoff odds using my Elo model!
Kanas City Current are unsurprisingly favored heavily, but the field is open beyond them. Look out for Racing Louisville and Gotham FC, who both have good odds if they can get past their first round matchup.
Kanas City Current are unsurprisingly favored heavily, but the field is open beyond them. Look out for Racing Louisville and Gotham FC, who both have good odds if they can get past their first round matchup.
November 3, 2025 at 2:48 PM
NWSL playoff odds using my Elo model!
Kanas City Current are unsurprisingly favored heavily, but the field is open beyond them. Look out for Racing Louisville and Gotham FC, who both have good odds if they can get past their first round matchup.
Kanas City Current are unsurprisingly favored heavily, but the field is open beyond them. Look out for Racing Louisville and Gotham FC, who both have good odds if they can get past their first round matchup.
And here's the final NWSL table positions - Gotham in particular still has decent odds ranging from a home playoff game (15%) to going to KC in the first round (19%). Still lots to play for!
October 20, 2025 at 2:12 PM
And here's the final NWSL table positions - Gotham in particular still has decent odds ranging from a home playoff game (15%) to going to KC in the first round (19%). Still lots to play for!
Elo NWSL predictions - only one round left!
Thorns are in the driver seat for 4th place, and the last playoff spot is 80%/20% in favor of Louisville, but some decision day intrigue is to come!
Thorns are in the driver seat for 4th place, and the last playoff spot is 80%/20% in favor of Louisville, but some decision day intrigue is to come!
October 20, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Elo NWSL predictions - only one round left!
Thorns are in the driver seat for 4th place, and the last playoff spot is 80%/20% in favor of Louisville, but some decision day intrigue is to come!
Thorns are in the driver seat for 4th place, and the last playoff spot is 80%/20% in favor of Louisville, but some decision day intrigue is to come!
New #NWSL Elo predictions! Playoffs are virtually locked up, but there is still jockeying for position among 3rd-8th. Orlando and Gotham FC are looking good for the home playoff games at the moment.
October 13, 2025 at 2:20 PM
New #NWSL Elo predictions! Playoffs are virtually locked up, but there is still jockeying for position among 3rd-8th. Orlando and Gotham FC are looking good for the home playoff games at the moment.
New #NWSL Elo predictions!
Louisville's win in the 6-point showdown against North Carolina puts their odds at 97% for the playoffs, whereas North Carolina falls to under a 1-in-4 chance.
Otherwise, the race for 3rd/4th is very close, with 3rd-7th separated by a projected 2 points.
Louisville's win in the 6-point showdown against North Carolina puts their odds at 97% for the playoffs, whereas North Carolina falls to under a 1-in-4 chance.
Otherwise, the race for 3rd/4th is very close, with 3rd-7th separated by a projected 2 points.
October 7, 2025 at 2:30 PM
New #NWSL Elo predictions!
Louisville's win in the 6-point showdown against North Carolina puts their odds at 97% for the playoffs, whereas North Carolina falls to under a 1-in-4 chance.
Otherwise, the race for 3rd/4th is very close, with 3rd-7th separated by a projected 2 points.
Louisville's win in the 6-point showdown against North Carolina puts their odds at 97% for the playoffs, whereas North Carolina falls to under a 1-in-4 chance.
Otherwise, the race for 3rd/4th is very close, with 3rd-7th separated by a projected 2 points.
New #NWSL Elo ratings! Louisville jump back into 8th, and Seattle's playoffs odds go above 90% despite their low rating.
Washington's odds of second are up to 95%, and Gotham is also looking strong for a home playoff game, but other slots are still up in the air among the top-9.
Washington's odds of second are up to 95%, and Gotham is also looking strong for a home playoff game, but other slots are still up in the air among the top-9.
September 29, 2025 at 2:14 PM
New #NWSL Elo ratings! Louisville jump back into 8th, and Seattle's playoffs odds go above 90% despite their low rating.
Washington's odds of second are up to 95%, and Gotham is also looking strong for a home playoff game, but other slots are still up in the air among the top-9.
Washington's odds of second are up to 95%, and Gotham is also looking strong for a home playoff game, but other slots are still up in the air among the top-9.
Reposted by Trevor Larner
Gift Monday is special
September 28, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Gift Monday is special
#NWSL Elo predictions through week 21!
The Spirit are heavy favorites for 2nd (92%), but 3rd and 4th are still an open competition.
Further down, there are 3 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. Louisville has are back in 9th after two straight losses, but their playoff odds are over 50%.
The Spirit are heavy favorites for 2nd (92%), but 3rd and 4th are still an open competition.
Further down, there are 3 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. Louisville has are back in 9th after two straight losses, but their playoff odds are over 50%.
September 22, 2025 at 2:04 PM
#NWSL Elo predictions through week 21!
The Spirit are heavy favorites for 2nd (92%), but 3rd and 4th are still an open competition.
Further down, there are 3 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. Louisville has are back in 9th after two straight losses, but their playoff odds are over 50%.
The Spirit are heavy favorites for 2nd (92%), but 3rd and 4th are still an open competition.
Further down, there are 3 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. Louisville has are back in 9th after two straight losses, but their playoff odds are over 50%.
New #NWSL Elo predictions through week 20! Gotham has stormed into 3rd, and the race for the top 4 remains close. North Carolina is right outside in 9th, but the rest of the pack has fallen behind.
September 15, 2025 at 2:54 PM
New #NWSL Elo predictions through week 20! Gotham has stormed into 3rd, and the race for the top 4 remains close. North Carolina is right outside in 9th, but the rest of the pack has fallen behind.
New #NWSL Elo predictions!
Dash's big win over SD brings them into 9th and the top contender to break into the top-8. Spirit is in a good place for second (84%), but the rest of the top-4 remains wide open. Bay's playoff hopes are fading despite some strong performances post-break.
Dash's big win over SD brings them into 9th and the top contender to break into the top-8. Spirit is in a good place for second (84%), but the rest of the top-4 remains wide open. Bay's playoff hopes are fading despite some strong performances post-break.
September 8, 2025 at 1:33 PM
New #NWSL Elo predictions!
Dash's big win over SD brings them into 9th and the top contender to break into the top-8. Spirit is in a good place for second (84%), but the rest of the top-4 remains wide open. Bay's playoff hopes are fading despite some strong performances post-break.
Dash's big win over SD brings them into 9th and the top contender to break into the top-8. Spirit is in a good place for second (84%), but the rest of the top-4 remains wide open. Bay's playoff hopes are fading despite some strong performances post-break.
"the NWSL are reluctant to see such a key player leave" this is your fault with the restrictive salary cap!? Silver lining is maybe this will be the wakeup call the league needs to loosen the rules.
Update: Alyssa Thompson is understood to have said goodbye to her Angel City team-mates and is determined to join Chelsea before the deadline, but the two clubs are still trying to thrash out a deal. Both Angel City and the NWSL are reluctant to see such a key player leave. #ChelseaFCW #USWNT
September 3, 2025 at 1:47 PM
"the NWSL are reluctant to see such a key player leave" this is your fault with the restrictive salary cap!? Silver lining is maybe this will be the wakeup call the league needs to loosen the rules.
New #NWSL Elo rest of season predictions!
Gotham 📈with a big win over Orlando; their team rating is now 3rd best, behind KC and Washington. Angel City's win helps their odds (Thompson loss not taken into account), but they're still on the outside. The Reign are faltering towards the playoff line.
Gotham 📈with a big win over Orlando; their team rating is now 3rd best, behind KC and Washington. Angel City's win helps their odds (Thompson loss not taken into account), but they're still on the outside. The Reign are faltering towards the playoff line.
September 2, 2025 at 1:51 PM
New #NWSL Elo rest of season predictions!
Gotham 📈with a big win over Orlando; their team rating is now 3rd best, behind KC and Washington. Angel City's win helps their odds (Thompson loss not taken into account), but they're still on the outside. The Reign are faltering towards the playoff line.
Gotham 📈with a big win over Orlando; their team rating is now 3rd best, behind KC and Washington. Angel City's win helps their odds (Thompson loss not taken into account), but they're still on the outside. The Reign are faltering towards the playoff line.
Reposted by Trevor Larner
Angel City can not do this if they want to truly become a global club
Exclusive: Chelsea have made a formal approach to Angel City regarding the United States winger Alyssa Thompson, @sport.theguardian.com understands. No fee agreed yet. The WSL transfer window closes in one week. More here... #BarclaysWSL #ChelseaFCW #NWSL www.theguardian.com/football/202...
Chelsea hoping to sign Angel City’s 20-year-old USA winger Alyssa Thompson
Women’s Super League champions want to add a top-class winger to their team before they start their title defence
www.theguardian.com
August 28, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Angel City can not do this if they want to truly become a global club
#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games!
Spirit jump into 2nd and Orlando down to 4th as they are stuck in a run of poor form. The table is close from 7th-11th, with all 5 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Reign's rating is falling as their performances are faltering a bit.
Spirit jump into 2nd and Orlando down to 4th as they are stuck in a run of poor form. The table is close from 7th-11th, with all 5 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Reign's rating is falling as their performances are faltering a bit.
August 25, 2025 at 3:09 PM
#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games!
Spirit jump into 2nd and Orlando down to 4th as they are stuck in a run of poor form. The table is close from 7th-11th, with all 5 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Reign's rating is falling as their performances are faltering a bit.
Spirit jump into 2nd and Orlando down to 4th as they are stuck in a run of poor form. The table is close from 7th-11th, with all 5 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Reign's rating is falling as their performances are faltering a bit.
#NWSL Elo-based rest of season predictions through week 16!
Besides the last playoff spot which remains tight, the battle for second is quite interesting. Orlando is favored at 38%, with the Spirit at 28%, Wave at 23%, and Portland at 8%.
Besides the last playoff spot which remains tight, the battle for second is quite interesting. Orlando is favored at 38%, with the Spirit at 28%, Wave at 23%, and Portland at 8%.
August 20, 2025 at 9:55 PM
#NWSL Elo-based rest of season predictions through week 16!
Besides the last playoff spot which remains tight, the battle for second is quite interesting. Orlando is favored at 38%, with the Spirit at 28%, Wave at 23%, and Portland at 8%.
Besides the last playoff spot which remains tight, the battle for second is quite interesting. Orlando is favored at 38%, with the Spirit at 28%, Wave at 23%, and Portland at 8%.
Reposted by Trevor Larner
Really puts the Current’s dominance into perspective
#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games!
The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model.
Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.
The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model.
Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.
August 11, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Really puts the Current’s dominance into perspective
#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games!
The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model.
Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.
The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model.
Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.
August 11, 2025 at 2:42 PM
#NWSL Elo predictions through Sunday's games!
The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model.
Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.
The Thorns jump the Wave into 4th, but the table stays mostly steady. Courage and Bay are the teams on the outside right now that still have a shot per the model.
Also, KC is projected to get 63 points now, comfortably more than Orlando's 60 last year.
New #NWSL ELO predictions through MW 14!
The table is shaken up a little, but the overall picture is similar to before the break. The last playoff spot is a toss up between Gotham and North Carolina Courage right now, with Bay FC still holding an outside chance.
The table is shaken up a little, but the overall picture is similar to before the break. The last playoff spot is a toss up between Gotham and North Carolina Courage right now, with Bay FC still holding an outside chance.
August 4, 2025 at 1:57 PM
New #NWSL ELO predictions through MW 14!
The table is shaken up a little, but the overall picture is similar to before the break. The last playoff spot is a toss up between Gotham and North Carolina Courage right now, with Bay FC still holding an outside chance.
The table is shaken up a little, but the overall picture is similar to before the break. The last playoff spot is a toss up between Gotham and North Carolina Courage right now, with Bay FC still holding an outside chance.
Reposted by Trevor Larner
