Tobias Gehrke
@tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
Geoeconomics and economic security at European Council on Foreign Relations | PhD
After striking a critical mineral deal with Australia, Washington also inked another one with Tokyo. A few things worth noting:
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
United States - Japan Framework for Securing the Supply of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths through Mining and Processing
Whereas, critical minerals and rare earths are essential for the production of advanced technologies; Whereas, the United States of America (the “United
www.whitehouse.gov
October 28, 2025 at 9:25 AM
After striking a critical mineral deal with Australia, Washington also inked another one with Tokyo. A few things worth noting:
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
A Canadian miner announced a $277 million investment to construct the first US heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. Plans to mine in South America and ship them to Louisiana for processing
asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
1st US heavy rare earths separation facility planned in Louisiana - Asia Times
A Canadian mining company plans to build a facility in Louisiana's Calcasieu Parish to refine rare earth metals used in a variety of motors and
asiatimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 8:05 AM
A Canadian miner announced a $277 million investment to construct the first US heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. Plans to mine in South America and ship them to Louisiana for processing
asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
More trouble ahead
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
October 28, 2025 at 7:52 AM
More trouble ahead
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
If the ACI is not used now, at a time when China is taking coercion to a new level through its rare earth controls, the tool deserves a place at the back of the deep-freeze, next to the CAI. @jankaoertel.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
ecfr.eu
October 27, 2025 at 12:17 PM
If the ACI is not used now, at a time when China is taking coercion to a new level through its rare earth controls, the tool deserves a place at the back of the deep-freeze, next to the CAI. @jankaoertel.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
This is a really good speech from VDL.
And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
This is an era of geoeconomics.
And we must use our geoeconomic weight to protect our strategic sectors and supply chains
It’s a matter of national security.
And Europe has what it takes to thrive in this new confrontational world ↓
link.europa.eu/hvyWFM
And we must use our geoeconomic weight to protect our strategic sectors and supply chains
It’s a matter of national security.
And Europe has what it takes to thrive in this new confrontational world ↓
link.europa.eu/hvyWFM
October 26, 2025 at 9:00 AM
This is a really good speech from VDL.
And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
A supply analysis of 107 leading European corporations from seven industries shows that 86% purchase chips from Nexperia sites in China
- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive
www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive
www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
Handelsblatt
www.handelsblatt.com
October 25, 2025 at 10:31 AM
A supply analysis of 107 leading European corporations from seven industries shows that 86% purchase chips from Nexperia sites in China
- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive
www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive
www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
The irony is that Beijing does not allow any foreign inverter suppliers in its energy grid for cybersecurity reasons.
But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.
Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.
Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Huawei’s solar tech sparks fears of Europe’s next dependency crisis
Cyber officials fear the Chinese tech giant’s grip on energy networks.
www.politico.eu
October 24, 2025 at 1:30 PM
The irony is that Beijing does not allow any foreign inverter suppliers in its energy grid for cybersecurity reasons.
But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.
Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.
Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
The ACI was on the table at EUCO, but no agreement was found.
Tactically, EU is also waiting for
- US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain?
- Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
Tactically, EU is also waiting for
- US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain?
- Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
Macron at EUCO
To counter China’s trade offensive, Macron called on the Commission to “launch investigations” to “defend ourselves in a coordinated manner"
“The very ability of Europeans to maintain autonomous production is being called into question”
To counter China’s trade offensive, Macron called on the Commission to “launch investigations” to “defend ourselves in a coordinated manner"
“The very ability of Europeans to maintain autonomous production is being called into question”
EU Summit: From Ukraine to the 2040 climate target – here’s how it went | Euractiv
As EU leaders met in Brussels, we followed their packed agenda including Ukraine, European defence, and the situation in the Middle East
www.euractiv.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:00 AM
The ACI was on the table at EUCO, but no agreement was found.
Tactically, EU is also waiting for
- US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain?
- Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
Tactically, EU is also waiting for
- US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain?
- Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
A qualified majority of member states must agree that the EU is being subjected to economic coercion. If China’s recent actions do not meet that threshold, it is hard to imagine what ever will, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
bit.ly
October 23, 2025 at 2:34 PM
A qualified majority of member states must agree that the EU is being subjected to economic coercion. If China’s recent actions do not meet that threshold, it is hard to imagine what ever will, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social & @jankaoertel.bsky.social @ecfr.eu.
Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
ecfr.eu
October 21, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social & @jankaoertel.bsky.social @ecfr.eu.
Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Europeans need collective leverage to even start a conversation with Beijing—otherwise acceptance becomes the new normal and Beijing will continue to gradually escalate, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
bit.ly
October 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Europeans need collective leverage to even start a conversation with Beijing—otherwise acceptance becomes the new normal and Beijing will continue to gradually escalate, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Report from @TGehrke_and @jankaoertel calling for the EU to use the anti coercion instrument against China over rare earths
Points to chokepoints Europe could use:
-older DUV machines
-airplane components
-high precision bearings
-powdered superalloys
Points to chokepoints Europe could use:
-older DUV machines
-airplane components
-high precision bearings
-powdered superalloys
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
ecfr-eu.cdn.ampproject.org
October 21, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Report from @TGehrke_and @jankaoertel calling for the EU to use the anti coercion instrument against China over rare earths
Points to chokepoints Europe could use:
-older DUV machines
-airplane components
-high precision bearings
-powdered superalloys
Points to chokepoints Europe could use:
-older DUV machines
-airplane components
-high precision bearings
-powdered superalloys
The EU should trigger the anti-coercion instrument to respond to China's rare earth weapon
@jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target
Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
@jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target
Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
ecfr.eu
October 21, 2025 at 3:27 PM
The EU should trigger the anti-coercion instrument to respond to China's rare earth weapon
@jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target
Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
@jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target
Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos.
Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?
My long read is out this morning.
Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?
My long read is out this morning.
The new age of weaponisation lays bare Europe's weaknesses
Does the EU have what it takes to survive in the age of weaponisation? Recent events have cast light on the crucial question. #EuropeNews
euronews.com
September 25, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos.
Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?
My long read is out this morning.
Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?
My long read is out this morning.
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
ecfr.eu
September 17, 2025 at 10:10 AM
What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
September 3, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
August 29, 2025 at 9:32 AM
“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered
My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight
www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight
www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered
Top trade officials break ranks to admit the bloc does not have structures to move as the US and China do in the economic security space.
www.scmp.com
August 29, 2025 at 9:32 AM
EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered
My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight
www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight
www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Donald Trump's latest tariff threat comes with a message impossible to ignore: the EU-US trade war isn't over yet.
It is just evolving.
My analysis.
It is just evolving.
My analysis.
Trump's new tariff threat suggests the EU-US trade war isn't over yet
Brussels hoped the EU-US deal would finally put an end to the trade war. But Donald Trump's new tariff threat suggests the story is far from over. #EuropeNews
www.euronews.com
August 27, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Donald Trump's latest tariff threat comes with a message impossible to ignore: the EU-US trade war isn't over yet.
It is just evolving.
My analysis.
It is just evolving.
My analysis.
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal.
Language relating to China in this short thread:
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...
Language relating to China in this short thread:
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...
Joint Statement on a United States-European Union framework on an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade
The United States and the European Union are pleased to announce that they have agreed on a Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade ('Framework Agreement').
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu
August 21, 2025 at 11:13 AM
NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal.
Language relating to China in this short thread:
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...
Language relating to China in this short thread:
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
The apparent commitment by the EU to buy $250 billion a year of U.S. #energy is delusional and has zero chance of being realised. It would mean the EU buying virtually all of its #crude oil, #LNG and met #coal from the U.S., and the U.S. can't even supply the volumes. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
EU's pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional
There are strong echoes of Donald Trump's failed trade deal with China from his first term as U.S. president in the framework agreement reached with the European Union.
www.reuters.com
July 28, 2025 at 2:44 AM
The apparent commitment by the EU to buy $250 billion a year of U.S. #energy is delusional and has zero chance of being realised. It would mean the EU buying virtually all of its #crude oil, #LNG and met #coal from the U.S., and the U.S. can't even supply the volumes. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
As Europe seriously contemplates retaliation against US tariffs as a way of striking a better bargain, I’m reposting @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social excellent overview of Europe’s economic arsenal. The bloc has more leverage than commonly assumed, tho Japan folding won’t help.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion
Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating…
ecfr.eu
July 23, 2025 at 11:06 AM
As Europe seriously contemplates retaliation against US tariffs as a way of striking a better bargain, I’m reposting @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social excellent overview of Europe’s economic arsenal. The bloc has more leverage than commonly assumed, tho Japan folding won’t help.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
How do you pronounce "dirigisme" in Republican?
@kfj-fp.bsky.social and @christinalu.bsky.social on the GOP's state capitalist turn, w/ @sarahbauerled.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and me.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/t...
@kfj-fp.bsky.social and @christinalu.bsky.social on the GOP's state capitalist turn, w/ @sarahbauerled.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and me.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/t...
Trump Embraces State Capitalism
The level of U.S. government economic intervention under Trump 2.0 is off the charts.
foreignpolicy.com
July 17, 2025 at 12:59 PM
How do you pronounce "dirigisme" in Republican?
@kfj-fp.bsky.social and @christinalu.bsky.social on the GOP's state capitalist turn, w/ @sarahbauerled.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and me.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/t...
@kfj-fp.bsky.social and @christinalu.bsky.social on the GOP's state capitalist turn, w/ @sarahbauerled.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and me.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/t...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
🚨Emergency Podcast Episode🎙️
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Senior Policy Fellow @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social to discuss the collapse of an EU-US trade deal.
Listen, share and subscribe🔗
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Senior Policy Fellow @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social to discuss the collapse of an EU-US trade deal.
Listen, share and subscribe🔗
Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves…
bit.ly
July 15, 2025 at 11:04 AM
🚨Emergency Podcast Episode🎙️
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Senior Policy Fellow @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social to discuss the collapse of an EU-US trade deal.
Listen, share and subscribe🔗
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Senior Policy Fellow @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social to discuss the collapse of an EU-US trade deal.
Listen, share and subscribe🔗
Takeaways from our podcast recording on Europe's latest response to Washington’s tariff threats:
1) The EU is closing in on a second retaliation package worth €72 billion on top of the €21 billion already agreed. Not yet formally adopted, but it’s coming.
...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
1) The EU is closing in on a second retaliation package worth €72 billion on top of the €21 billion already agreed. Not yet formally adopted, but it’s coming.
...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves…
ecfr.eu
July 15, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Takeaways from our podcast recording on Europe's latest response to Washington’s tariff threats:
1) The EU is closing in on a second retaliation package worth €72 billion on top of the €21 billion already agreed. Not yet formally adopted, but it’s coming.
...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
1) The EU is closing in on a second retaliation package worth €72 billion on top of the €21 billion already agreed. Not yet formally adopted, but it’s coming.
...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...