Stefan Wolff

@stefwolff.bsky.social

310 followers 620 following 67 posts

Stefan Wolff is a German political scientist. He is a specialist in international security, particularly in the management, settlement and prevention of ethnic conflicts. He is currently Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom. Born in 1969, He studied as an undergraduate at the University of Leipzig and holds a Master's degree from Magdalene College, Cambridge, and a PhD from the London School of Economics, where he studied under the supervision of Brendan O'Leary. His doctoral thesis, dated 2000, was titled Managing disputed territories, external minorities and the stability of conflict settlements: A comparative analysis of six cases. .. more

Political science 84%

Sociology 11%

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Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 3d

Claims of progress in the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are therefore at best over-optimistic and at worst self-deluding: bit.ly/3Mfn2E7

Farcical peace talks continue in Abu Dhabi as Russia tries to bomb and freeze Ukraine into submission

Russia, Ukraine and the US have met for a second time in as many weeks to discuss a possible cessation of hostilities.

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Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 12d

After two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi, it remains unclear whether an actual negotiation process will now get under way between Russia and Ukraine and what its format and direction will be: bit.ly/4bVyCif

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 13d

Europe and its few scattered allies elsewhere need to start acting as if they were alone in a hostile world—because they are: bit.ly/4pVO0hV

Trump's performance at Davos underscored America's diminishing trustworthiness and dependability

The consequences for Britain, the EU, and Ukraine are obvious and unpleasant.

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Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 14d

Current transatlantic de-escalation notwithstanding, has Europe done enough to persuade President Trump to change course permanently over Greenland? bit.ly/4adJgj5

Europe's push-back over Greenland forced a Trump climb-down — for now.

But the reprieve is likely only temporary.

www.navigatingthevortex.com

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 24d

The war in Ukraine is likely to mark a few more milestones before there is another opportunity to prove again that aggression never pays: bit.ly/4pCQOAB

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now outlasts the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany

What does history tell us about Kyiv’s prospects?

www.navigatingthevortex.com

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

The Debate - France 24 @f24debate.france24.com · Jan 7

🇺🇸🇬🇱 The U.S. still depends on defense cooperation with Europe, warns @stefwolff.bsky.social, with any move on #Greenland carrying serious security risks.

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Jan 5

The law of the jungle is back — and the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price for it: bit.ly/3YsbbVV

Trump's Venezuela raid foreshadows more turbulence in a new 'great power' carve-up of the world

It signals the return of the law of the jungle for which the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price.

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Reposted by Stefan Wolff, Ernesto Castañeda

@dreid63 @dreid63.bsky.social · Jan 4

Good discussion and analysis here. @aljazeera.com @stefwolff.bsky.social @drernestocast.bsky.social @charlesshapiro.bsky.social

What might the US do next after Venezuela? | Inside Story

YouTube video by Al Jazeera English

youtu.be

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Jan 4

In light of recent US experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, more instability, not less, will be the likely result of the capture of Maduro: bit.ly/4qFYMtC

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Dec 26

The fighting in Ukraine is likely to continue unabated for the time being as neither of the warring sides, nor their backers, appear exhausted enough for peace: bit.ly/4azaQrU

The fall of Siversk caps a difficult year for Ukraine

What the end of the war will look like is as unclear as when and how the sides will get there.

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Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Dec 20

Internal divisions over Ukraine funding and Mercosur trade deal expose limitations of EU leadership in a world carved up by Washington, Moscow and Beijing: bit.ly/3MEtWD1

A fudge on Ukraine and a delay on Mercosur: how the EU procrastinates and fails to prove Trump wrong

By Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff

www.navigatingthevortex.com

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

Richard G. Whitman @rgwhitman.bsky.social · Dec 19

EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions - my analysis with @stefwolff.bsky.social theconversation.com/eu-agrees-90...

EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions

To placate pro-Moscow governments in Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, the EU had to include an ‘opt-out’ clause for its support for Ukraine.

theconversation.com

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Dec 11

For Europe, deterring Russia and appeasing the US have become existential priorities in a bigger game in which Ukraine might end up as yet another bargaining chip: bit.ly/4abQ8xV

New US national security strategy adds to Ukraine’s woes and exacerbates Europe’s dilemmas

By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff

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Reposted by Stefan Wolff, Gwendolyn Sasse

Zentrum für Osteuropa- und internationale Studien (ZOiS) @zois.bsky.social · Dec 11

Russian repression against Crimean #Tatars in occupied Ukraine follows a pattern.
Using a new geo-coded event dataset, researchers Elmira Muratova & @felixschulte.bsky.social map human rights violations & explain why repression is often carried out on Thursdays. More on the #KonKoop DataLab blog ⤵️

Thursdays are for Searches: The Russian Repression Calendar in Occupied Crimea - KonKoop

Authoritarian control follows a grim calculus. The literature on state repression shows that coercion is not random but operates under a highly strategic logic. Russia’s repressive campaign in its occupied territories in Ukraine is no exception. Shortly after the illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea in February and March 2014,…

konkoop.de

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

Foreign Policy Centre @fpcthinktank.bsky.social · Dec 1

🔎🇬🇪 New Expert Briefing | Georgia’s Political Landscape in Focus: A critical point for #democracy
On 11 Nov, FPC convened a parliamentary roundtable chaired by @joepowell.bsky.social MP featuring:
Eka Gigauri
Nino Evgenidze
Prof @stefwolff.bsky.social

📖 Read key insights: fpc.org.uk/wp-content/u...

Substack

Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition | Episode 1

George Kyris, The Recognition of a Right to Statehood and Palestine On 14 November 2025, we spoke to George Kyris about his article on “The Recognition of a Right to Statehood and Palestine”.

Reposts 0 Nov 27

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Nov 27

Available now: The first episode of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition featuring an interview with @georgekyris.bsky.social on the recognition of Palestine: bit.ly/4rp2ZTq

Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition | Episode 1

George Kyris, The Recognition of a Right to Statehood and Palestine

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Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Nov 26

The amateurish nature of a process that produced Trump’s 28-point plan should be the real worry for Ukraine and its partners: bit.ly/483wTFp

Trump’s 28-point plan was the result of a well-timed Russian move.

For now, however, it is unlikely to work out the way the Kremlin had planned.

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Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Nov 22

Talk of Ukraine’s political and military collapse may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy playing into Putin's hands: bit.ly/4rf5bwV

As US and Russia negotiate again behind Kyiv’s back, Ukrainian and European weakness is exposed

By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff

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Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Nov 16

The continuation of Russia’s war against Ukraine serves Chinese interests in several important ways: bit.ly/4p66agW

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Nov 15

Tolerating corruption is a luxury that Ukraine can no longer afford if it wants to survive as an independent country — the latest from Tetyana Malyarenko and me: bit.ly/3WXZJk5

Ukraine's latest corruption scandal not only threatens to derail Zelensky’s government. It also undermines Kyiv's war effort.

By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff

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Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Nov 6

The EU needs to decide how to balance holding the line on its membership standards while enabling Ukraine to hold the line against Russia: bit.ly/47FcYeq

The EU's assessment of Ukraine's progress toward membership is decidedly mixed. The report caps a bad month for Kyiv.

By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff

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Reposted by Stefan Wolff

Council on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · Oct 31

🇬🇧 should ‘think beyond the current geographic extent of the coalition, and consider how links with nations in the South Caucasus and Central Asia can be consolidated and expanded to strengthen it,’ says @stefwolff.bsky.social, @unibirmingham.bsky.social

#BigAsk #BritainsWorld

How should Britain cultivate the Coalition of the Willing?

The Big Ask | No. 44.2025

www.britainsworld.org.uk

Reposted by Richard Whitman

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Oct 28

As Trump flip-flops and the coalition of the willing is unlikely to go beyond securing Ukraine’s immediate survival, a credible pathway to ending the war with a just and stable peace is still lacking -- my latest analysis with @rgwhitman.bsky.social for @navvortex.bsky.social : bit.ly/43IOKP9

Despite another week of diplomatic whiplash, an end to the fighting in Ukraine is not in sight

By Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff

www.navigatingthevortex.com

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

Jonty Este @jonty98.bsky.social · Oct 22

Great piece from @stefwolff.bsky.social on @ConversationUK. Thanks to @alastaircampbell2.bsky.social and @rory-stewart.bsky.social for the mention. As ever, Stefan's analysis of thie complex and fast-moving issue is spot on.
theconversation.com/trumps-heate...

Trump’s heated White House meeting with Zelensky shows how well Putin is playing the US president

It looked as if the US might supply Ukraine with game-changing new weapons. Then the Russian president phoned Donald Trump.

theconversation.com

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Oct 21

Three key take-aways from the Trump-Putin-Zelensky diplomatic flurry over the past few weeks: bit.ly/3KY7HqK

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Oct 20

Unsurprisingly, Putin gets Trump to pivot again: bit.ly/42NC9Kd

Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · Oct 16

Recognising a Russian sphere of influence would most likely encourage dreams of further expansion in the Kremlin: bit.ly/4hfvKgV

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

Political Studies Association @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social · Oct 14

Following the announcement of this year’s #NobelPeacePrize winner, María Corina Machado, leader of Venzuela’s opposition movement, PSA Trustee @stefwolff.bsky.social reflects on the competition and controversies surrounding the prize @uk.theconversation.com