Stefan Wolff
stefwolff.bsky.social
Stefan Wolff
@stefwolff.bsky.social

Stefan Wolff is a German political scientist. He is a specialist in international security, particularly in the management, settlement and prevention of ethnic conflicts. He is currently Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom. Born in 1969, He studied as an undergraduate at the University of Leipzig and holds a Master's degree from Magdalene College, Cambridge, and a PhD from the London School of Economics, where he studied under the supervision of Brendan O'Leary. His doctoral thesis, dated 2000, was titled Managing disputed territories, external minorities and the stability of conflict settlements: A comparative analysis of six cases. .. more

Political science 84%
Sociology 11%

The EU needs to decide how to balance holding the line on its membership standards while enabling Ukraine to hold the line against Russia: bit.ly/47FcYeq
The EU's assessment of Ukraine's progress toward membership is decidedly mixed. The report caps a bad month for Kyiv.
By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff
bit.ly

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

🇬🇧 should ‘think beyond the current geographic extent of the coalition, and consider how links with nations in the South Caucasus and Central Asia can be consolidated and expanded to strengthen it,’ says @stefwolff.bsky.social, @unibirmingham.bsky.social

#BigAsk #BritainsWorld
How should Britain cultivate the Coalition of the Willing?
The Big Ask | No. 44.2025
www.britainsworld.org.uk

Reposted by Richard Whitman

As Trump flip-flops and the coalition of the willing is unlikely to go beyond securing Ukraine’s immediate survival, a credible pathway to ending the war with a just and stable peace is still lacking -- my latest analysis with @rgwhitman.bsky.social for @navvortex.bsky.social : bit.ly/43IOKP9
Despite another week of diplomatic whiplash, an end to the fighting in Ukraine is not in sight
By Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff
www.navigatingthevortex.com

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

Great piece from @stefwolff.bsky.social on @ConversationUK. Thanks to @alastaircampbell2.bsky.social and @rory-stewart.bsky.social for the mention. As ever, Stefan's analysis of thie complex and fast-moving issue is spot on.
theconversation.com/trumps-heate...
Trump’s heated White House meeting with Zelensky shows how well Putin is playing the US president
It looked as if the US might supply Ukraine with game-changing new weapons. Then the Russian president phoned Donald Trump.
theconversation.com

Three key take-aways from the Trump-Putin-Zelensky diplomatic flurry over the past few weeks: bit.ly/3KY7HqK

Unsurprisingly, Putin gets Trump to pivot again: bit.ly/42NC9Kd

Recognising a Russian sphere of influence would most likely encourage dreams of further expansion in the Kremlin: bit.ly/4hfvKgV

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

Following the announcement of this year’s #NobelPeacePrize winner, María Corina Machado, leader of Venzuela’s opposition movement, PSA Trustee @stefwolff.bsky.social reflects on the competition and controversies surrounding the prize @uk.theconversation.com
Donald Trump would have been an unsuitable choice for the 2025 Nobel peace prize – but he may be a more serious contender in 2026
The peace prize rules made it hard for the US president to win this year. But that doesn’t rule him out for 2026.
buff.ly

I was interviewed yesterday by @newstalkfm.bsky.social on Trump's Middle East diplomacy www.newstalk.com/podcasts/new...
Could Dead Cat Diplomacy Actually Work? | Newstalk
It was an extraordinary day in the Middle East. Hostages returned home to scenes of jubilation an...
www.newstalk.com

If Trump wants to be a serious contender for the 2026 Nobel peace Prize, he needs to double down on his peace-making efforts and prevent his grandiose claims from being proven wrong: bit.ly/4q1ntkN

BASEES Call for Papers deadline extended to 24 October 2025! Join us at the University of Birmingham, 10-12 April 2026: basees.org/news-1/2025/....
Call for Papers - BASEES 2026 Annual Conference, University of Birmingham, 10-12 April 2026 — Basees
basees.org

Despite spending millions on vote buying and disinformation, Russia has not been able to turn Moldova into a country in which a majority of the population would want to jeopardise their European future: bit.ly/4nzhP7S

Reposted by Richard Whitman

Time is running out for Europe to prevent Russia from broadening its war against Ukraine into a full-blown military confrontation with the west: my latest analysis with @rgwhitman.bsky.social: bit.ly/42e0qZB

Increasing Russian provocations and Trump wishing everyone ‘good luck’ mean that muddling through is no longer an option for Europe: bit.ly/3IDtdQy
Ukraine’s coalition of allies needs to be more than willing — it needs to get ready
Russian provocations and Trump's latest pivot put yet more pressure on Europe.
www.navigatingthevortex.com

Beyond full-throated condemnation, the western response to the latest Russian escalation has been worryingly underwhelming: bit.ly/47ANron
Russian drones in Polish airspace (part 2): A provocation – and a test
There is a real danger of the Ukraine war spilling over into NATO territory.
bit.ly

Putin senses opportunities for Russia to be the dominant power in Europe — and the west’s lacklustre response to his latest provocation is hardly a deterrent: bit.ly/4gnWICy

If Trump doesn’t recognise the value of his country’s allies in managing the challenge that China clearly poses to the US, China’s sphere of influence may quickly extend far beyond Asia: bit.ly/4mJoLyt

Likely statements at the upcoming SCO summit of how the spirit of Shanghai will shape a new international order rest on the false premise that a post-American international order will be a non-American order: my latest analysis for Navigating the Vortex: bit.ly/3UKuLuN

Reposted by Stefan Wolff

High level diplomacy in Washington and Alaska, but Ukraine is still under fire. So is peace any closer? @stefwolff.bsky.social @unibirmingham.bsky.social tells me and @phildobbie.bsky.social Donald Trump isn't prepared to do what's needed to end the conflict
whycurve.com/episode/ukra...
Ukraine - Any Closer To Peace? | The Why Curve
Lots of high-level diplomacy - handshakes for European leaders in the White House, the red-carpet for Putin in Alaska - but does any of this bring the end...
whycurve.com

Trump boldly claimed that he knew exactly what he was doing — but that may not be enough without knowing and understanding what his counterpart in the Kremlin is up to: bit.ly/3Jm1fZM

Trump has left Alaska empty-handed and Putin with a big smile on his face: bit.ly/471jHRm

For all his deal-making bluster, Trump, unlike Kyiv’s European allies has yet to commit unequivocally to a just peace for Ukraine: bit.ly/4fCjgik

If he doesn't blink first, Trump can now strengthen Kyiv and weaken Moscow to achieve a just and sustainable peace agreement: bit.ly/3UeGHEP

Trump is a long way off from being the “president of peace” but may inch closer to becoming the “president of ceasefires”: bit.ly/45gVZxF

Lack of bandwidth in the White House is a self-inflicted opportunity lost — not only for the United States but also for the long-suffering people of Ukraine and the Middle East: bit.ly/3H4tk7c

Continuing their war of attrition currently seems to be the second-best solution that Putin and Zelensky can agree on: www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/putin-and-...
Putin and Zelensky play for time
Waiting for Trump’s ultimatum to run out won't get either side close to victory.
www.navigatingthevortex.com

As Trump seems to pivot towards to Ukraine, the social and economic costs of Putin’s war against Ukraine are still rising: bit.ly/3U94kyn
Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 emphasises challenges and costs of rebuilding the country
The foundations for post-war recovery need to be built before the war ends.
www.navigatingthevortex.com