Jason Sardell
@sardell.bsky.social
Definitely. Same for the past decade. Was very easy to fill a ballot during the logjam in the 2010s before many of the writers who were reluctant to vote for PED era players lost their vote. This year’s ballot was weak in part because the current BBWAA has done a good job electing HoFers.
February 5, 2026 at 11:27 PM
Definitely. Same for the past decade. Was very easy to fill a ballot during the logjam in the 2010s before many of the writers who were reluctant to vote for PED era players lost their vote. This year’s ballot was weak in part because the current BBWAA has done a good job electing HoFers.
I suggest instead that it’s because today’s BBWAA is much better at voting. Ballots have fewer ticks because worthy Hall of Famers no longer need to wait for election. Joe Mauer was elected on the first ballot and Posey might be too. But Gary Carter, Piazza, and Fisk had to wait 6, 4, and 2 years.
February 5, 2026 at 10:46 PM
I suggest instead that it’s because today’s BBWAA is much better at voting. Ballots have fewer ticks because worthy Hall of Famers no longer need to wait for election. Joe Mauer was elected on the first ballot and Posey might be too. But Gary Carter, Piazza, and Fisk had to wait 6, 4, and 2 years.
One interesting paradox that @jjcoop36.bsky.social highlighted: younger voters generally vote for more player than older voters, yet the average number of voters per ballot has decreased over time. J.J. asked if this pattern means that modern voters are too picky.
February 5, 2026 at 10:37 PM
One interesting paradox that @jjcoop36.bsky.social highlighted: younger voters generally vote for more player than older voters, yet the average number of voters per ballot has decreased over time. J.J. asked if this pattern means that modern voters are too picky.
Was thinking of posting a voter breakdown like this, but @jjcoop36.bsky.social did a great job already. A must read if you’re interested in baseball Hall of Fame voting. Or gaining an insight into the pre/post/private voter demographics that inform my projection model.
Good stuff here on the evolution of the Hall of Fame voting pool, including the most complete demographic breakdown I’ve seen on time since joining the BBWAA (a proxy for voter age but not a perfect one) vs. candidates selected per ballot. Lots more to unpack here
February 5, 2026 at 10:31 PM
Was thinking of posting a voter breakdown like this, but @jjcoop36.bsky.social did a great job already. A must read if you’re interested in baseball Hall of Fame voting. Or gaining an insight into the pre/post/private voter demographics that inform my projection model.
Reposted by Jason Sardell
Here is the BBWAA ballot release: bbwaa.com/26-hof-ballo...
Looks like about 100 ballots that will be new to the Tracker. We'll have them in the Tracker later this afternoon.
Looks like about 100 ballots that will be new to the Tracker. We'll have them in the Tracker later this afternoon.
February 3, 2026 at 4:50 PM
Here is the BBWAA ballot release: bbwaa.com/26-hof-ballo...
Looks like about 100 ballots that will be new to the Tracker. We'll have them in the Tracker later this afternoon.
Looks like about 100 ballots that will be new to the Tracker. We'll have them in the Tracker later this afternoon.
RIP to a legend
January 29, 2026 at 11:32 AM
RIP to a legend
Reposted by Jason Sardell
new @fangraphs.com: Here it is, my rundown of the Hall of Fame election results as they pertain to all 27 candidates on this year's ballot.
A Candidate-by-Candidate Look at the 2026 Hall of Fame Election Results blogs.fangraphs.com/a-candidate-...
A Candidate-by-Candidate Look at the 2026 Hall of Fame Election Results
Digging deeper into Tuesday’s results — for all 27 players on the ballot.
blogs.fangraphs.com
January 22, 2026 at 5:56 PM
new @fangraphs.com: Here it is, my rundown of the Hall of Fame election results as they pertain to all 27 candidates on this year's ballot.
Reposted by Jason Sardell
new @fangraphs.com: my first look at tonight's Hall of Fame election results — record-setting gains, record-setting comebacks, and some key trends.
I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.
I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.
Centers of Attention: Carlos Beltán and Andruw Jones Elected to the Hall of Fame blogs.fangraphs.com/centers-of-a...
Centers of Attention: Carlos Beltán and Andruw Jones Elected to the Hall of Fame
On a ballot that lacked strong first-year candidates, two holdovers overcame sizable dents and dings in their candidacies to gain entry.
blogs.fangraphs.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:56 AM
new @fangraphs.com: my first look at tonight's Hall of Fame election results — record-setting gains, record-setting comebacks, and some key trends.
I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.
I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.
I did some analysis of voter trends for @jaysonst.bsky.social’s latest column including how much of Félix’s gain came from new voters or the “vote 10 no matter what” crowd. Would be fun to revisit that after the BBWAA ballot drop in two weeks.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/698...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/698...
Five things we learned from the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame election
Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones have changed the landscape of modern Hall voting. But there is so much more to discuss about the results.
www.nytimes.com
January 21, 2026 at 7:53 PM
I did some analysis of voter trends for @jaysonst.bsky.social’s latest column including how much of Félix’s gain came from new voters or the “vote 10 no matter what” crowd. Would be fun to revisit that after the BBWAA ballot drop in two weeks.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/698...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/698...
Reposted by Jason Sardell
Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social, who once again had the most accurate #HOF projections this year! However, @mwwdean.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social's Flip Rate model also had very good years.
January 21, 2026 at 3:55 AM
Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social, who once again had the most accurate #HOF projections this year! However, @mwwdean.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social's Flip Rate model also had very good years.
Thanks. I rounded the 95% confidence intervals for readability and to avoid the illusion of unwarranted precision. And the only result you highlighted that doesn’t round to the nearest bound is Torii Hunter. Looks like the drops he received from public voters didn’t carry over.
January 21, 2026 at 9:11 AM
Thanks. I rounded the 95% confidence intervals for readability and to avoid the illusion of unwarranted precision. And the only result you highlighted that doesn’t round to the nearest bound is Torii Hunter. Looks like the drops he received from public voters didn’t carry over.
Was a huge honor to assist Jayson with his annual column diving into the wild world of Hall of Fame election voting trends!
January 21, 2026 at 1:24 AM
Was a huge honor to assist Jayson with his annual column diving into the wild world of Hall of Fame election voting trends!
Reposted by Jason Sardell
Final Hall of Fame election results.
59 percent for Utley and almost a 26 percent jump for Felix!
59 percent for Utley and almost a 26 percent jump for Felix!
January 20, 2026 at 11:27 PM
Final Hall of Fame election results.
59 percent for Utley and almost a 26 percent jump for Felix!
59 percent for Utley and almost a 26 percent jump for Felix!
Congratulations Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones! Will be great to see them on stage with Jeff Kent this summer. And many thanks to all the BBWAA voters who shared their ballots this year and let us have our fun!
January 20, 2026 at 11:24 PM
Congratulations Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones! Will be great to see them on stage with Jeff Kent this summer. And many thanks to all the BBWAA voters who shared their ballots this year and let us have our fun!
For posterity, here are my final 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections. Thanks as ever to @notmrtibbs.com, @shutthedore.bsky.social, and @tonycal.bsky.social for all their hard work. Hall of Fame season wouldn’t really exist without them!
January 20, 2026 at 10:51 PM
For posterity, here are my final 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections. Thanks as ever to @notmrtibbs.com, @shutthedore.bsky.social, and @tonycal.bsky.social for all their hard work. Hall of Fame season wouldn’t really exist without them!
Was prepping them when you posted that. They're live now.
January 20, 2026 at 12:52 AM
Was prepping them when you posted that. They're live now.
Less than 24 hours to go until the results of this year's Baseball Hall of Fame election are revealed. If trends with public voters hold, we'll be welcoming two new members: Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. My latest projections with 223 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker.
January 20, 2026 at 12:44 AM
Less than 24 hours to go until the results of this year's Baseball Hall of Fame election are revealed. If trends with public voters hold, we'll be welcoming two new members: Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. My latest projections with 223 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker.
Reposted by Jason Sardell
I believe I owe you this column every year.
My annual Hall of Fame explanation.
Not just how I voted but why.
Some surprises.
The player who tormented me for a week
And thoughts on how dramatically it’s all about to change
www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...
My annual Hall of Fame explanation.
Not just how I voted but why.
Some surprises.
The player who tormented me for a week
And thoughts on how dramatically it’s all about to change
www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...
January 15, 2026 at 1:31 PM
I believe I owe you this column every year.
My annual Hall of Fame explanation.
Not just how I voted but why.
Some surprises.
The player who tormented me for a week
And thoughts on how dramatically it’s all about to change
www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...
My annual Hall of Fame explanation.
Not just how I voted but why.
Some surprises.
The player who tormented me for a week
And thoughts on how dramatically it’s all about to change
www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...
I suspect my model's projections are high on Utley as he's had a huge public/private split the past couple of years. My model anticipates that will start to shift this year but it may not. He should definitely finish well above 50% though, which still puts him in great shape for eventual election
January 15, 2026 at 12:54 AM
I suspect my model's projections are high on Utley as he's had a huge public/private split the past couple of years. My model anticipates that will start to shift this year but it may not. He should definitely finish well above 50% though, which still puts him in great shape for eventual election
Feel like a two person class this year would be very good for Buster Posey next year. Most voters don't want a shutout and he's the logical top candidate.
January 15, 2026 at 12:46 AM
Feel like a two person class this year would be very good for Buster Posey next year. Most voters don't want a shutout and he's the logical top candidate.
With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections
January 15, 2026 at 12:39 AM
With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections
Reposted by Jason Sardell
I’ll lay out my Hall of Fame ballot later this week but here’s how my Athletic teammates voted
www.nytimes.com/athletic/696...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/696...
Baseball Hall of Fame ballots 2026: The Athletic’s voters explain their selections
Twelve of The Athletic's Hall of Fame voters reveal their ballots and discuss the thinking behind some of their selections.
www.nytimes.com
January 13, 2026 at 1:06 PM
I’ll lay out my Hall of Fame ballot later this week but here’s how my Athletic teammates voted
www.nytimes.com/athletic/696...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/696...
Reposted by Jason Sardell
Sorry. I'm sorry. I'm trying to delete it.
January 13, 2026 at 12:46 AM
Sorry. I'm sorry. I'm trying to delete it.
It's not a perfect approach and there's room for improvement. I have some ideas to make next year's model better for example. But my projections have been pretty accurate since I started doing this in 2015 and offer a more realistic picture of where candidates will finish than the raw Tracker totals
January 9, 2026 at 9:48 PM
It's not a perfect approach and there's room for improvement. I have some ideas to make next year's model better for example. But my projections have been pretty accurate since I started doing this in 2015 and offer a more realistic picture of where candidates will finish than the raw Tracker totals