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sardell.bsky.social
Jason Sardell
@sardell.bsky.social
660 followers 67 following 96 posts
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sardell.bsky.social
Was thinking of posting a voter breakdown like this, but @jjcoop36.bsky.social did a great job already. A must read if you’re interested in baseball Hall of Fame voting. Or gaining an insight into the pre/post/private voter demographics that inform my projection model.
jayjaffe.bsky.social Jay Jaffe @jayjaffe.bsky.social · 3d
Good stuff here on the evolution of the Hall of Fame voting pool, including the most complete demographic breakdown I’ve seen on time since joining the BBWAA (a proxy for voter age but not a perfect one) vs. candidates selected per ballot. Lots more to unpack here
February 5, 2026 at 10:31 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
notmrtibbs.com
Here is the BBWAA ballot release: bbwaa.com/26-hof-ballo...

Looks like about 100 ballots that will be new to the Tracker. We'll have them in the Tracker later this afternoon.
February 3, 2026 at 4:50 PM
sardell.bsky.social
RIP to a legend
January 29, 2026 at 11:32 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jayjaffe.bsky.social
new @fangraphs.com: Here it is, my rundown of the Hall of Fame election results as they pertain to all 27 candidates on this year's ballot.
January 22, 2026 at 5:56 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jayjaffe.bsky.social
new @fangraphs.com: my first look at tonight's Hall of Fame election results — record-setting gains, record-setting comebacks, and some key trends.

I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.
January 21, 2026 at 2:56 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
baseballot.bsky.social
Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social, who once again had the most accurate #HOF projections this year! However, @mwwdean.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social's Flip Rate model also had very good years.
A table showing that Jason Sardell had the lowest average error, median error, and root mean square error of Baseball Hall of Fame election forecasters in 2026.
January 21, 2026 at 3:55 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Was a huge honor to assist Jayson with his annual column diving into the wild world of Hall of Fame election voting trends!
January 21, 2026 at 1:24 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jaysonst.bsky.social
Final Hall of Fame election results.

59 percent for Utley and almost a 26 percent jump for Felix!
January 20, 2026 at 11:27 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Congratulations Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones! Will be great to see them on stage with Jeff Kent this summer. And many thanks to all the BBWAA voters who shared their ballots this year and let us have our fun!
January 20, 2026 at 11:24 PM
sardell.bsky.social
For posterity, here are my final 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections. Thanks as ever to @notmrtibbs.com, @shutthedore.bsky.social, and @tonycal.bsky.social for all their hard work. Hall of Fame season wouldn’t really exist without them!
Table of Hall of Fame projections showing Carlos Beltrán as a sure thing and Andruw Jones being elected 97% of the time.
January 20, 2026 at 10:51 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Less than 24 hours to go until the results of this year's Baseball Hall of Fame election are revealed. If trends with public voters hold, we'll be welcoming two new members: Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. My latest projections with 223 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker.
Table of Baseball Hall of Fame projections listing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% Carlos Beltrán 82% 79% - 86% 100% 0% Andruw Jones 77% 74% - 81% 93% 0% Chase Utley 59% 55% - 63% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 50% 46% - 54% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 49% 45% - 53% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 42% 40% - 44% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 39% 37% - 42% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 31% 29% - 35% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 26% 23% - 30% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 24% 22% - 26% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 23% 21% - 26% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 20% 18% - 23% 0% 0% David Wright 17% 15% - 20% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 19% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 17% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 7% 5% - 9% 0% 5% Ryan Braun 3% 2% - 5% 0% 97% Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.5% - 4% 0% 99% Nick Markakis 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% 99.9% Rick Porcello 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% 99.9% Shin-Soo Choo 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% >99.9% Hunter Pence 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% >99.9%
January 20, 2026 at 12:44 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jaysonst.bsky.social
I believe I owe you this column every year.

My annual Hall of Fame explanation.

Not just how I voted but why.

Some surprises.

The player who tormented me for a week

And thoughts on how dramatically it’s all about to change

www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...
January 15, 2026 at 1:31 PM
sardell.bsky.social
With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections
Table listing Baseball Hall of Fame projections showing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% Carlos Beltrán 83% 79% - 87% >99.9% 0% Andruw Jones 77% 74% - 81% 90% 0% Chase Utley 60% 56% - 65% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 51% 46% - 56% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 51% 46% - 55% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 42% 40% - 46% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 39% 37% - 42% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 32% 29% - 36% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 26% 22% - 31% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 23% 21% - 27% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 23% 20% - 27% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 20% 17% - 24% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 19% 0% 0% David Wright 16% 14% - 20% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 17% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 6% 4% - 8% 0% 30% Ryan Braun 2% 1% - 6% 0% 96% Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.5% - 5% 0% 98% Nick Markakis 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 99% Shin-Soo Choo 1% 0.2% - 4% 0% 99% Hunter Pence 1% 0.2% - 4% 0% 99%
January 15, 2026 at 12:39 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
jaysonst.bsky.social
I’ll lay out my Hall of Fame ballot later this week but here’s how my Athletic teammates voted

www.nytimes.com/athletic/696...
Baseball Hall of Fame ballots 2026: The Athletic’s voters explain their selections
Twelve of The Athletic's Hall of Fame voters reveal their ballots and discuss the thinking behind some of their selections.
www.nytimes.com
January 13, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
notmrtibbs.com
Sorry. I'm sorry. I'm trying to delete it.
January 13, 2026 at 12:46 AM
sardell.bsky.social
With 148 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's very likely that Carlos Beltrán will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame by the BBWAA this year. Andruw Jones is currently on pace to join him and Jeff Kent in Cooperstown but his fans shouldn't take that for granted yet. My latest projections:
Table of Hall of Fame projections listing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, % Simulations <5% Carlos Beltrán 81% 76% - 86% 99.7% 0% Andruw Jones 76% 73% - 80% 74% 0% Chase Utley 57% 52% - 63% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 51% 45% - 57% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 49% 44% - 54% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 43% 40% - 47% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 40% 37% - 44% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 33% 29% - 38% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 25% 21% - 31% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 24% 21% - 29% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 24% 21% - 28% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 18% 16% - 23% 0% 0% David Wright 17% 15% - 22% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 20% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 18% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 5% 3% - 8% 0% 50% Ryan Braun 3% 1% - 8% 0% 82% Edwin Encarnación 2% 0.5% - 7% 0% 90% Shin-Soo Choo 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 96% Hunter Pence 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 96%
January 9, 2026 at 12:04 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
peteabeglobe.bsky.social
For @notmrtibbs.com and others with any interest:

The Globe's Hall of Fame votes will be published on Wednesday morning on BostonGlobe.com.

There are six of us: me, Chad Finn, Dan Shaughnessy, Mike Silverman, Alex Speier, and Tara Sullivan.
January 5, 2026 at 8:44 PM
sardell.bsky.social
My first set of 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections with 112 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Current trends indicate that Carlos Beltrán is very likely to enter the Hall this year, but it's still unclear whether Andruw Jones will join him.
Table with Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75, and % Simulations <5% for players on the ballot. Carlos Beltrán 81% 75% - 87% 99% 0% Andruw Jones 77% 72% - 81% 77% 0% Chase Utley 57% 51% - 64% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 47% 41% - 54% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 46% 41% - 53% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 44% 40% - 50% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 40% 36% - 45% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 33% 29% - 40% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 25% 19% - 32% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 25% 21% - 31% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 24% 19% - 29% 0% 0% David Wright 18% 14% - 25% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 18% 15% - 24% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 13% - 21% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 15% 12% - 21% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 4% 2% - 9% 0% 65% Ryan Braun 4% 1% - 10% 0% 70% Shin-Soo Choo 1% 0.2% - 8% 0% 88% Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.2% - 8% 0% 88% Hunter Pence 1% 0.2% - 8% 0% 88%
January 2, 2026 at 1:44 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Will post my first full set of 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections in the new year. But as a sneak peak, my model has Carlos Beltrán elected in 82% of simulations based on 100 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com’s Tracker. Andruw Jones elected 57% of the time.
December 31, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
notmrtibbs.com
Is that Félix chart totally wild? Yes it is. The best comps I can think of are Larry Walker's 2018 to 2019 (25.7% increase through 70 ballots) and Scott Rolen's 2019 to 2020 (24.3% increase through 70 ballots).

Félix is 37.2% above where he was through 70 ballots last year.
December 28, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
fangraphs.com
JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Ryan Braun blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the...
JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Ryan Braun
The five-tool slugger won an NL MVP award, but his career is tainted by his PED use and the extremes he went to in an attempt to evade suspension.
blogs.fangraphs.com
December 17, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
notmrtibbs.com
Since there are no human-generated ballots being revealed, I took @mordyoberstein.bsky.social's viral Gemini AI prompt idea and applied it to the Hall of Fame election:
Gemini AI prompt: "Produce an infographic of the most logical and reasonable Baseball Hall of Fame ballot for the 2026 election cycle." Gemini AI output: a flaming hot mess
December 17, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
cooperstowncred.bsky.social
Congratulations to Jeff Kent, who was elected tonight to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.
He got 14 votes from the 16-member committee.
Carlos Delgado came in 2nd place with 9 votes, while Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy got 6 votes each.
www.cooperstowncred.com/jeff-kent-fi...
Jeff Kent: The First Member of the Hall of Fame's Class of 2026 - Cooperstown Cred
Jeff Kent hit 377 home runs in his MLB career, the most ever for a 2nd baseman and yet he has never gotten close to the Hall of Fame on the BBWAA ballot.
www.cooperstowncred.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:02 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Congratulations to newest Hall of Famer Jeff Kent! Hoping someone else will join him on the stage in Cooperstown next summer.
December 8, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Reposted by Jason Sardell
notmrtibbs.com
There might be a new Hall of Famer (or two? three?) in 20 minutes. Watch here: www.mlb.com/video/live-h...
December 8, 2025 at 12:13 AM