Jason Sardell
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sardell.bsky.social
Jason Sardell
@sardell.bsky.social
600 followers 65 following 59 posts
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sardell.bsky.social
Never a bad time to remember some guys!
9 gold standard Guys: Morgan Burkhart, Roberto Petagine, Morgan Ensberg, Erubiel Durazo, Donnie Sadler, Izzy Alcántara, El Guapo, Unsung Hero of 2004 Curt Leskanic, and John ‘Wayback’ Wasdin
September 2, 2025 at 7:07 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Final Baseball Hall of Fame projections for the Class of 2025, with 213 BBWAA ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. I'm confident that it will include Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner, but we'll have to wait to see if Carlos Beltrán joins them. Currently giving him a 1-in-3 shot.
January 21, 2025 at 10:38 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Updated Hall of Fame projections with less than 24 hours to go and 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Beltrán's likelihood of being elected has slipped in the past 24 hours but he could still join Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner in Cooperstown if he slightly overperforms current trends
Table of projections listing median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% for each player: Ichiro Suzuki 100% 96% - 100% 100% 0% CC Sabathia 92% 88% - 95% 100% 0% Billy Wagner 82% 79% - 85% 100% 0% Carlos Beltrán 73% 69% - 77% 16% 0% Andruw Jones 68% 65% - 72% 0% 0% Chase Utley 42% 38% - 46% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 35% - 38% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 33% 31% - 35% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 27% 24% - 30% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 24% 20% - 29% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 21% 18% - 24% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 21% 18% - 24% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 18% 14% - 21% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 14% 11% - 18% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 13% 11% - 16% 0% 0% David Wright 10% 8% - 13% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 9% 8% - 12% 0% 0% Ian Kinsler 4% 2% - 7% 0% 83% Russell Martin 3% 2% - 6% 0% 90% Torii Hunter 3% 2% - 6% 0% 92% Brian McCann 3% 2% - 6% 0% 93%
January 21, 2025 at 12:53 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Latest Baseball Hall of Fame projections with 152 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Carlos Beltrán's chances of joining Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner have increased since last week, but his current add/drop trends still leave him on pace to finish in the low 70s.
Table of projections listing median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% for each player: Ichiro Suzuki 100% 96% - 100% 100% 0% CC Sabathia 90% 86% - 94% 100% 0% Billy Wagner 82% 79% - 85% >99.9% 0% Carlos Beltrán 73% 68% - 78% 21% 0% Andruw Jones 70% 65% - 74% 0.8% 0% Chase Utley 42% 37% - 48% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 34% - 39% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 33% 31% - 35% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 27% 23% - 31% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 23% 18% - 28% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 20% 17% - 24% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 19% 16% - 23% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 19% 15% - 23% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 14% 11% - 18% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 11% 8% - 16% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 10% 8% - 14% 0% 0% David Wright 10% 8% - 14% 0% 0% Russell Martin 4% 2% - 8% 0% 71% Brian McCann 4% 2% - 8% 0% 76% Ian Kinsler 3% 1% - 7% 0% 85% Torii Hunter 2% 0.5% - 5% 0% 97%
January 15, 2025 at 12:26 AM
sardell.bsky.social
With 119 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that the BBWAA will elect 3 players to the Baseball Hall of Fame on January 21. But Carlos Beltrán still has a chance of joining Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner. My latest projections:
Table of projections listing median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% for each player: Ichiro Suzuki 100% 95% - 100% 100% 0% CC Sabathia 88% 82% - 93% >99.9% 0% Billy Wagner 83% 79% - 87% >99.9% 0% Carlos Beltrán 72% 67% - 77% 13% 0% Andruw Jones 69% 64% - 74% 1% 0% Chase Utley 41% 36% - 48% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 33% - 39% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 32% 20% - 36% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 27% 22% - 33% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 22% 16% - 29% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 21% 17% - 26% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 18% 15% - 23% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 18% 14% - 21% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 14% 11% - 19% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 11% 7% - 18% 0% 0.01% Francisco Rodríguez 10% 8% - 14% 0% 0.01% David Wright 10% 7% - 14% 0% 0.05% Russell Martin 4.6% 2% - 10% 0% 58% Ian Kinsler 4% 1% - 9% 0% 70% Brian McCann 4% 2% - 9% 0% 73% Torii Hunter 2% 0.3% - 5% 0% 96%
January 9, 2025 at 12:21 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Here are my first set of projections for the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame election, based on add/drop trends for the 92 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Looking likely that we'll have a three-person BBWAA class this year, but Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones also have an outside shot.
Table of projections listing median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% for each player: Ichiro Suzuki 100% 90% - 100% 100% 100% CC Sabathia 89% 80% - 95% 99.9% 0% Billy Wagner 83% 79% - 88% 99.9% 0% Carlos Beltrán 72% 67% - 79% 22% 0% Andruw Jones 70% 64% - 76% 6% 0% Chase Utley 39% 32% - 47% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 33% - 41% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 32% 29% - 37% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 27% 21% - 34% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 23% 15% - 32% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 21% 17% - 28% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 19% 15% - 24% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 17% 14% - 23% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 13% 10% - 20% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 11% 6% - 21% 0% 0.4% Francisco Rodríguez 10% 7% - 15% 0% 0.05% David Wright 10% 6% - 17% 0% 0.2% Russell Martin 5.4% 2% - 15% 0% 43% Ian Kinsler 4.9% 2% - 14% 0% 50% Brian McCann 4% 2% - 14% 0% 58% Torii Hunter 2% 0.4% - 7% 0% 92%
January 2, 2025 at 11:36 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Bit silly to post Hall of Fame projections when we'll find out the results in an hour, but here are mine with 217 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's tracker. Billy Wagner's flip rate is slightly off the pace that he needs for election, but still lots of scenarios in which he reaches 75%.
Median 95% Confidence Interval % Simulations >= 75% % Simulations <5% Adrián Beltré 98.7% 97% - 99% 100% 0% Joe Mauer 82.6% 79% - 86% > 99.9% 0% Todd Helton 77.1% 74% - 80% 93% 0% Billy Wagner 74.0% 71% - 77% 27% 0% Gary Sheffield 67.2% 64% - 71% 0% 0% Andruw Jones 62.0% 60% - 65% 0% 0% Carlos Beltrán 61.5% 58% - 65% 0% 0% Chase Utley 37.2% 33% - 42% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 35.4% 33% - 38% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 32.0% 30% - 35% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 16.4% 13% - 20% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 15.9% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 15.6% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 15.1% 14% - 17% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 8.1% 7% - 10% 0% 0.02% Mark Buehrle 7.6% 6% - 10% 0% < 0.01% Torii Hunter 6.4% 5% - 8% 0% 4% David Wright 6.0% 4% - 9% 0% 20% José Bautista 1.6% 1% - 3% 0% 99.9% Matt Holliday 0.8% 0.5% - 3% 0% > 99.9% Víctor Martínez 0.8% 0.5% - 3% 0% > 99.9% Bartolo Colón 0.3% 0.3% -2% 0% > 99.9%
January 23, 2024 at 10:47 PM
sardell.bsky.social
Election eve ballots have been good for Todd Helton's Hall of Fame chances but not so good for Billy Wagner's. Current projections with 200 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker.
Median 95% Confidence Interval % Simulations >= 75% % Simulations <5% Adrián Beltré 98.7% 96% - 99% 100% 0% Joe Mauer 81.5% 77% - 85% 99.9% 0% Todd Helton 75.9% 73% - 79% 71% 0% Billy Wagner 73.4% 71% - 77% 18% 0% Gary Sheffield 67.0% 64% - 71% < 0.01% 0% Andruw Jones 61.7% 59% - 65% 0% 0% Carlos Beltrán 59.6% 56% - 64% 0% 0% Chase Utley 37.5% 33% - 42% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 35.7% 33% - 39% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 32.0% 29% - 35% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 16.4% 12% - 21% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 15.9% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 15.6% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 15.6% 14% - 18% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 8.1% 6% - 10% 0% < 0.01% Mark Buehrle 7.8% 7% - 10% 0% < 0.01% Torii Hunter 6.5% 5% - 9% 0% 4% David Wright 6.0% 4% - 9% 0% 20% José Bautista 1.6% 1% - 4% 0% 99.7% Matt Holliday 1.0% 0.5% - 3% 0% > 99.9% Víctor Martínez 1.0% 0.5% - 3% 0% > 99.9% Bartolo Colón 0.3% 0.3% -2% 0% > 99.9%
January 23, 2024 at 2:22 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Three days before Hall of Fame reveal day and here are my latest projections (with 185 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker). Todd Helton's chances of election have decreased a bit since my last update while Billy Wagner's have improved slightly, but both remain right on the edge.
January 21, 2024 at 12:18 AM
sardell.bsky.social
With 165 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker, my model is confident that Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer will be elected to the Hall of Fame one week from today. Helton is now on pace to join them but Billy Wagner is at risk of falling just short, although it could go either way for those two.
Median 95% Confidence Interval % Simulations >= 75% % Simulations <5% Adrián Beltré 98% 95% - 99% 100% 0% Joe Mauer 82% 77% - 86% 99.7% 0% Todd Helton 76% 73% - 80% 70% 0% Billy Wagner 74% 70% - 78% 26% 0% Gary Sheffield 66% 63% - 71% 0.01% 0% Andruw Jones 62% 59% - 66% 0% 0% Carlos Beltrán 59% 55% - 64% 0% 0% Chase Utley 40% 35% - 46% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 33% - 39% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 33% 30% - 36% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 15% 13% - 18% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 15% 13% - 18% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 15% 12% - 18% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 14% 10% - 19% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 8% 6% - 11% 0% 0.2% Mark Buehrle 8% 6% - 10% 0% 0.2% Torii Hunter 6% 4% - 8% 0% 22% David Wright 6% 4% - 10% 0% 24% José Bautista 1% 0.5% - 4% 0% 99.6% Matt Holliday 1% 0.3% - 3% 0% 99.9% Bartolo Colón 1% 0.3% - 3% 0% 99.9% Víctor Martínez 1% 0.3% - 3% 0% 99.9%
January 17, 2024 at 12:52 AM
sardell.bsky.social
Updated Hall of Fame projections with 123 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker. Mauer's chances of election remain very promising, but it looks like we'll be on the edge of our seat on Jan. 23 waiting to see if Helton or Wagner received enough votes to join Adrián Beltré in the Class of 2024
Median 95% Confidence Interval % Simulations >= 75% % Simulations <5% Adrián Beltré 98% 93% - 99% 100% 0% Joe Mauer 81% 74% - 86% 96% 0% Todd Helton 74% 70% - 79% 35% 0% Billy Wagner 74% 69% - 79% 37% 0% Gary Sheffield 67% 62% - 72% 0.4% 0% Carlos Beltrán 60% 55% - 66% 0% 0% Andruw Jones 59% 55% - 64% 0% 0% Chase Utley 40% 33% - 47% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 36% 32% - 41% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 34% 30% - 39% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 12% - 22% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 16% 13% - 20% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 14% 12% - 18% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 13% 10% - 17% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 8% 6% - 11% 0% 0.5% Francisco Rodríguez 8% 5% - 11% 0% 2% Torii Hunter 7% 5% - 10% 0% 4% David Wright 5% 3% - 10% 0% 49% José Bautista 2% 0.5% - 5% 0% 96% Matt Holliday 1% 0.3% - 4% 0% 99% Bartolo Colón 1% 0.3% - 4% 0% 99%
January 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
sardell.bsky.social
And here are my projections. If Joe Mauer continues at this pace, he would be elected with room to spare. Billy Wagner still has a chance, but he'll need to do better flipping remaining “No” voters than he has so far. And Todd Helton's odds of election are basically a coin flip.
Median followed by 95% confidence interval Adrián Beltré 97% 91% - 99%, elected 100% of simulations Joe Mauer 80% 72% - 86%, elected 89% of simulations Todd Helton 74% 69% - 80%, elected 37% of simulations Billy Wagner 71% 66% - 77%, elected 12% of simulations Gary Sheffield 64% 59% - 70%, elected <0.01% of simulations Carlos Beltrán 61% 54% - 68%, elected <0.01% of simulations Andruw Jones 58% 53% - 63% Chase Utley 41% 33% - 49% Álex Rodríguez 38% 33% - 44% Manny Ramírez 35% 30% - 41% Omar Vizquel 18% 12% - 23% Jimmy Rollins 16% 13% - 22% Bobby Abreu 14% 11% - 19% Andy Pettitte 14% 10% - 19% Mark Buehrle 8% 7% - 13% Francisco Rodríguez 8% 5% - 13% Torii Hunter 7% 2% - 11% David Wright 7% 3% - 13% Bartolo Colón 1% 0.3% - 5% Matt Holliday 1% 0.3% - 5%
December 31, 2023 at 12:51 AM