Sam Winter-Levy
@samwl.bsky.social
Fellow @CarnegieEndow, Technology + International Affairs. Previously poli sci PhD @ Princeton, @ForeignAffairs, @TheEconomist.
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Today's Lawfare Daily is a Scaling Laws ep, with @utexaslaw.bsky.social, where @alanrozenshtein.com spoke to @samwl.bsky.social, Janet Egan & @petereharrell.bsky.social about the Trump admin’s decision to allow Nvidia and AMD to export AI semiconductors to China for a 15% payment to the U.S. govt.
August 21, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Today's Lawfare Daily is a Scaling Laws ep, with @utexaslaw.bsky.social, where @alanrozenshtein.com spoke to @samwl.bsky.social, Janet Egan & @petereharrell.bsky.social about the Trump admin’s decision to allow Nvidia and AMD to export AI semiconductors to China for a 15% payment to the U.S. govt.
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Read @samwl.bsky.social and Nikita Lalwani on how AI advances could undermine nuclear deterrence—and “encourage mistrust and dangerous actions among nuclear-armed states”:
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 20, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Read @samwl.bsky.social and Nikita Lalwani on how AI advances could undermine nuclear deterrence—and “encourage mistrust and dangerous actions among nuclear-armed states”:
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Appreciated this balanced look at the impact of quote-unquote AI on nuclear deterrence - more of this, please.
Does AI present new nuclear risks? Yes.
Are there hard limits to AI's capabilities? Also yes. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Does AI present new nuclear risks? Yes.
Are there hard limits to AI's capabilities? Also yes. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 8, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Appreciated this balanced look at the impact of quote-unquote AI on nuclear deterrence - more of this, please.
Does AI present new nuclear risks? Yes.
Are there hard limits to AI's capabilities? Also yes. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Does AI present new nuclear risks? Yes.
Are there hard limits to AI's capabilities? Also yes. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
"So long as systems of nuclear deterrence remain in place, the economic and military advantages produced by AI will not allow states to fully impose their political preferences on one another. "
@foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
@foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 8, 2025 at 6:06 AM
"So long as systems of nuclear deterrence remain in place, the economic and military advantages produced by AI will not allow states to fully impose their political preferences on one another. "
@foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
@foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Fascinating read. So many things combined in this article: deterrence theory, nuclear doctrines, AI development. Not cheerful but insightful.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 8, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Fascinating read. So many things combined in this article: deterrence theory, nuclear doctrines, AI development. Not cheerful but insightful.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
In @foreignaffairs.com, Nikita Lalwani and I write about the idea that winning the AI race will give one state unchallenged global dominance. To do so, we argue, it would have to undercut nuclear deterrence—no small feat. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 7, 2025 at 6:46 PM
In @foreignaffairs.com, Nikita Lalwani and I write about the idea that winning the AI race will give one state unchallenged global dominance. To do so, we argue, it would have to undercut nuclear deterrence—no small feat. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan and accompanying executive orders are friendly to companies and hostile to “woke AI.”
But these policies’ effects will depend on their implementation, writes @samwl.bsky.social in @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/117765/asses...
But these policies’ effects will depend on their implementation, writes @samwl.bsky.social in @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/117765/asses...
Assessing the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan
Unpacking the Trump administration's AI Action Plan — what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
www.justsecurity.org
July 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM
The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan and accompanying executive orders are friendly to companies and hostile to “woke AI.”
But these policies’ effects will depend on their implementation, writes @samwl.bsky.social in @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/117765/asses...
But these policies’ effects will depend on their implementation, writes @samwl.bsky.social in @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/117765/asses...
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
The Trump administration has unveiled its most ambitious AI strategy to date, with the goal of achieving “unquestioned and unchallenged” global dominance in AI.
@samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpacks the AI Action Plan - what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
#AIActionPlan
@samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpacks the AI Action Plan - what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
#AIActionPlan
Assessing the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan
Unpacking the Trump administration's AI Action Plan — what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
www.justsecurity.org
July 25, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The Trump administration has unveiled its most ambitious AI strategy to date, with the goal of achieving “unquestioned and unchallenged” global dominance in AI.
@samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpacks the AI Action Plan - what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
#AIActionPlan
@samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpacks the AI Action Plan - what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
#AIActionPlan
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
The Trump administration has released its long-awaited #AI Action Plan.
Leading experts Josh Geltzer, Jennifer Marron, @briannarosen.bsky.social, and @samwl.bsky.social unpack the plan, its implications, and what lies ahead.
www.justsecurity.org/117752/just-...
Leading experts Josh Geltzer, Jennifer Marron, @briannarosen.bsky.social, and @samwl.bsky.social unpack the plan, its implications, and what lies ahead.
www.justsecurity.org/117752/just-...
The Just Security Podcast: Decoding Trump’s AI Playbook: The AI Action Plan and What Comes Next
Joshua Geltzer, Jenny Marron and Sam Winter-Levy join Brianna Rosen on the show to discuss the Trump administration's U.S. AI Action Plan.
www.justsecurity.org
July 24, 2025 at 6:06 PM
The Trump administration has released its long-awaited #AI Action Plan.
Leading experts Josh Geltzer, Jennifer Marron, @briannarosen.bsky.social, and @samwl.bsky.social unpack the plan, its implications, and what lies ahead.
www.justsecurity.org/117752/just-...
Leading experts Josh Geltzer, Jennifer Marron, @briannarosen.bsky.social, and @samwl.bsky.social unpack the plan, its implications, and what lies ahead.
www.justsecurity.org/117752/just-...
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Beijing has claimed last week’s trade deal with Nvidia as a win for China. Is it actually?
Probably, write @samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins in @foreignpolicy.com: the U.S. should tighten its AI export controls, not undercut them.
Full article: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/n...
Probably, write @samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins in @foreignpolicy.com: the U.S. should tighten its AI export controls, not undercut them.
Full article: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/n...
The Nvidia Chip Deal Trades Away the United States’ AI Advantage
Right when the Trump administration should be ramping up export controls, its trade strategy is undermining them.
foreignpolicy.com
July 23, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Beijing has claimed last week’s trade deal with Nvidia as a win for China. Is it actually?
Probably, write @samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins in @foreignpolicy.com: the U.S. should tighten its AI export controls, not undercut them.
Full article: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/n...
Probably, write @samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins in @foreignpolicy.com: the U.S. should tighten its AI export controls, not undercut them.
Full article: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/n...
In @foreignpolicy.com, Alasdair Phillips-Robins and I wrote about the Trump administration’s mismanagement of export control policy. In its desperation to reach a deal in its trade war with China, the administration has hamstrung its ability to impose new chip restrictions:
The Nvidia Chip Deal Trades Away the United States’ AI Advantage
Right when the Trump administration should be ramping up export controls, its trade strategy is undermining them.
foreignpolicy.com
July 23, 2025 at 12:34 PM
In @foreignpolicy.com, Alasdair Phillips-Robins and I wrote about the Trump administration’s mismanagement of export control policy. In its desperation to reach a deal in its trade war with China, the administration has hamstrung its ability to impose new chip restrictions:
Trump's Gulf datacenter plan will put a key node of the world’s AI infrastructure in locations highly vulnerable to drone attack. Yet despite these obvious risks, physical security has barely registered in the public debate. That needs to change. My latest, in @washingtonpost.com: wapo.st/46SQXKe
Opinion | The gulf is not the place to build the world’s AI infrastructure
Drone threats make the UAE and Saudi Arabia the wrong homes for critical AI data centers.
wapo.st
July 23, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Trump's Gulf datacenter plan will put a key node of the world’s AI infrastructure in locations highly vulnerable to drone attack. Yet despite these obvious risks, physical security has barely registered in the public debate. That needs to change. My latest, in @washingtonpost.com: wapo.st/46SQXKe
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
What exactly do the AI deals that President Trump made on his Gulf trip entail? And what’s next for AI policy in the U.S., the Gulf, and the world?
@samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins explained for @justsecurity.org:
@samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins explained for @justsecurity.org:
What Comes Next After Trump’s AI Deals in the Gulf
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the AI race.
buff.ly
June 4, 2025 at 5:15 PM
What exactly do the AI deals that President Trump made on his Gulf trip entail? And what’s next for AI policy in the U.S., the Gulf, and the world?
@samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins explained for @justsecurity.org:
@samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins explained for @justsecurity.org:
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the #Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the #AI race.
Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpack what comes next.
www.justsecurity.org/113944/what-...
Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpack what comes next.
www.justsecurity.org/113944/what-...
What Comes Next After Trump’s AI Deals in the Gulf
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the AI race.
www.justsecurity.org
June 4, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the #Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the #AI race.
Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpack what comes next.
www.justsecurity.org/113944/what-...
Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpack what comes next.
www.justsecurity.org/113944/what-...
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
AI deals were a major focus of President Trump’s trip to the Middle East last week. But what should we make of these deals? Do they open the U.S. up to economic opportunities, or security risks?
Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social on how to tell: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social on how to tell: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
How to Gauge Whether Trump’s AI Chip Deals With Gulf Countries Are Any Good
Several key factors will hint at whether Trump used the United States’ considerable leverage around AI to minimize risk.
carnegieendowment.org
May 19, 2025 at 1:41 PM
AI deals were a major focus of President Trump’s trip to the Middle East last week. But what should we make of these deals? Do they open the U.S. up to economic opportunities, or security risks?
Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social on how to tell: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social on how to tell: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Great @nytimes.com reporting from @anaswanson.bsky.social, ft some closing comments from me on the tensions between an America First AI policy and the decision to offshore the world's most powerful AI facilities to the UAE:
May 16, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Great @nytimes.com reporting from @anaswanson.bsky.social, ft some closing comments from me on the tensions between an America First AI policy and the decision to offshore the world's most powerful AI facilities to the UAE:
Shared some more skeptical reactions to Trump's Gulf AI deals with @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
May 15, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Shared some more skeptical reactions to Trump's Gulf AI deals with @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
Shared a couple of thoughts with @anaswanson.bsky.social for the @nytimes.com on the risks of letting the Gulf amass giant concentrations of cutting-edge AI chips: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b...
May 14, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Shared a couple of thoughts with @anaswanson.bsky.social for the @nytimes.com on the risks of letting the Gulf amass giant concentrations of cutting-edge AI chips: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b...
Some thoughts from me in the
@washingtonpost.com on what's shaping up to be a bad AI deal with the Gulf: washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
@washingtonpost.com on what's shaping up to be a bad AI deal with the Gulf: washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
May 14, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Some thoughts from me in the
@washingtonpost.com on what's shaping up to be a bad AI deal with the Gulf: washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
@washingtonpost.com on what's shaping up to be a bad AI deal with the Gulf: washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
1/ The Trump admin may be about to greenlight the export of advanced AI chips to the Gulf. If it does so, it will place the most important technology of the 21st C at the whims of autocrats with expanding ties to China and interests very far from those of the US.
May 9, 2025 at 1:48 PM
1/ The Trump admin may be about to greenlight the export of advanced AI chips to the Gulf. If it does so, it will place the most important technology of the 21st C at the whims of autocrats with expanding ties to China and interests very far from those of the US.
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
My conversation with @samwl.bsky.social moderated by @rmomtaz.bsky.social on how AI is re- shaping the world order. @carnegieeurope.bsky.social @carnegieendowment.org. Part of the europe-inside-out podcast.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/how...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/how...
How AI Is Reshaping the Global Order | Europe Inside Out
Rym Momtaz, Sinan Ülgen, and Sam Winter-Levy examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping international politics and will define the future of the tech industry.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com
April 16, 2025 at 9:01 AM
My conversation with @samwl.bsky.social moderated by @rmomtaz.bsky.social on how AI is re- shaping the world order. @carnegieeurope.bsky.social @carnegieendowment.org. Part of the europe-inside-out podcast.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/how...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/how...
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Some thoughts on DOGE/the Trump administration's destruction of USIP, the Wilson Center, and home-grown social science/area studies expertise about the rest of the world:
paulstaniland.com/2025/04/16/u...
paulstaniland.com/2025/04/16/u...
USIP, the Wilson Center, and the Politics of Wrecking
I recently received this email from Nate Cavanaugh, listed as the “Acting Chairman and President” of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP): It cancelled a contract for a special r…
paulstaniland.com
April 16, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Some thoughts on DOGE/the Trump administration's destruction of USIP, the Wilson Center, and home-grown social science/area studies expertise about the rest of the world:
paulstaniland.com/2025/04/16/u...
paulstaniland.com/2025/04/16/u...
In the wake of DeepSeek's market-jolting release, @carnegieendowment.org's Matt Sheehan and I explain why export controls almost certainly still matter, how the Chinese govt is likely to respond, and what this means for the U.S.-China AI race more broadly carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...
Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil
Two experts discuss the Chinese AI startup that’s causing global turbulence and what they’re watching for in the coming weeks.
carnegieendowment.org
January 29, 2025 at 3:17 PM
In the wake of DeepSeek's market-jolting release, @carnegieendowment.org's Matt Sheehan and I explain why export controls almost certainly still matter, how the Chinese govt is likely to respond, and what this means for the U.S.-China AI race more broadly carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...
Some more thoughts on the AI diffusion framework in @justsecurity.org. If the Trump admin keeps it—big if!—it gives them a ready-made new bargaining chip as leverage in international negotiations: www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
The Future of the AI Diffusion Framework
The Biden administration's AI diffusion rule is another salvo in the United States' escalating AI competition with China.
www.justsecurity.org
January 21, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Some more thoughts on the AI diffusion framework in @justsecurity.org. If the Trump admin keeps it—big if!—it gives them a ready-made new bargaining chip as leverage in international negotiations: www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
How widely should the US share its #AI technologies?
Amid growing competition with #China, the Trump admin will have to grapple with this question as it reviews the Biden-era diffusion rule, writes @samwl.bsky.social.
www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
Amid growing competition with #China, the Trump admin will have to grapple with this question as it reviews the Biden-era diffusion rule, writes @samwl.bsky.social.
www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
The Future of the AI Diffusion Framework
The Biden administration's AI diffusion rule is another salvo in the United States' escalating AI competition with China.
www.justsecurity.org
January 21, 2025 at 2:35 PM
How widely should the US share its #AI technologies?
Amid growing competition with #China, the Trump admin will have to grapple with this question as it reviews the Biden-era diffusion rule, writes @samwl.bsky.social.
www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
Amid growing competition with #China, the Trump admin will have to grapple with this question as it reviews the Biden-era diffusion rule, writes @samwl.bsky.social.
www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...