Full piece here; @carnegieendowment.org: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

And there's no room for complacency. Rapid AI takeoffs could cross unforeseen thresholds. States should stress-test nuclear systems for AI-related vulnerabilities, build AI/nuclear expertise, and calibrate messaging about the stakes of the AGI race.

None of this is to say AI will pose no risks to nuclear stability. The moves states make to shore up their second strike capabilities—building more weapons, reducing decision timelines, delegating authority—may be destabilizing and dangerous.

Nuclear deterrence will likely hold, and the coercive leverage that advanced AI affords states (against rivals with well postured nuclear forces) will thus face major limits.

Even with highly capable AI systems, states will struggle to be confident of simultaneous success against multiple legs of a nuclear triad, with limited data, limited options for testing, and no room for error.

Tracking launchers at scale is very challenging, the physics of missile defense are brutal, states will do everything they can to protect their command and control systems.

In all three domains, as we document, AI can likely help. But in all three domains, AI will also face serious constraints.

So could AI erode nuclear deterrence? Theoretically, yes, through three mechanisms: 1. Increased ability to track nuclear platforms (subs and road-mobile launchers); 2. increased ability to tamper with command-and-control systems; 3. improved missile defense.

The US economy is 15x Russia's and 1000x North Korea's, yet the US's influence over them is limited, to put it mildly.

Obviously AI will matter a lot. But unless it erodes nuclear deterrence, no matter how many economic/military advantages it may bring, states will face major constraints in dealing with nuclear armed adversaries.

An increasing number of analysts claim AGI will entirely transform international politics, giving a decisive strategic advantage to the state that possesses it—an advantage akin to complete military and political dominance.