Ronan Mainprize
banner
ronanmainprize.bsky.social
Ronan Mainprize
@ronanmainprize.bsky.social
Ax:son Johnson Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for Statecraft and Strategic Communication

Research on intelligence, statecraft, and strategy • Writing a book on Lyndon Johnson, the CIA, and the Global Cold War • University of Warwick PhD
Pinned
New research from me - published in the @officialbaas.bsky.social Journal of American Studies - on William Raborn's tenure as Director of Central Intelligence. 🇺🇲

Including the Dominican Intervention, Vietnam, and some tragicomic anecdotes.

Available Open Access 🔓: shorturl.at/PG4Eb
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond | Sergey Radchenko
Despite the cost of shooting down fighter jets and drones, small skirmishes remind both sides of the dangers of escalation, says academic Sergey Radchenko
www.theguardian.com
September 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
“Companies in the sector have raised €2.4bn since the start of 2022 including €1.4bn in the first seven months of this year alone, up from just €30mn in 2020 and €150mn in 2021”

on.ft.com/3VJiU0d
Europe’s defence tech start-ups attract investment surge
Russia’s war in Ukraine and fears over US security relationship drive wave of VC funding
on.ft.com
September 8, 2025 at 5:53 AM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Glad speaking with @svenskadagbladet1.bsky.social on US intelligence on Iran and how to consider the public disputes around assessments 🇺🇸

Though hard to guauge from outside, recent events remind us to beware politicization of intelligence or secret services 🌍

English 👇

www.svd.se/a/kwoBJX/exp...
Expert: Underrättelser om Iran har blivit politik
De motstridiga uppgifterna om bombningen av Iran tyder enligt spioneriexperten Matthew Hefler på att underrättelse i USA håller på att bli politik.
www.svd.se
June 30, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
🚨📚 New Publication - The #Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? 🇮🇱🇮🇷 in @thecipherbrief.bsky.social

www.thecipherbrief.com/intelligence...
The Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program?
OPINION — On June 13, 2025, just after midnight, Israel launched a military operation against Iran, citing an urgent need to halt Tehran’s march toward nuclear weapons capability. Prime Minister Benja...
www.thecipherbrief.com
June 23, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Thanks to Sweden’s national TV network @svtnyheter.bsky.social for getting my reaction to 🇸🇪's recent intelligence review by Carl Bildt 🌍

I said that a new foreign intelligence agency will take time and must reflect Sweden's security needs and "intelligence culture" 🛠️ 🇸🇪

www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
Experten om ett ”svenskt CIA”: Verkar vilja gå i den riktningen
”Kan bli betydande förändringar” • Ny svensk underrättelsemyndighet föreslås
www.svt.se
June 23, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Me in @TheCriticMag: David Ben-Gurion believed Israel in its hostile region could never have finality on its terms. It would always have to deter, requiring discipline. Netanyahu's war of temptation on Iran rejects that vision. Decisiveness may elude him.
thecritic.co.uk/deterrence-r...
Deterrence requires discipline | Patrick Porter | The Critic Magazine
To deter, or to destroy? To try to dissuade adversaries from attacking one’s people or interests, or to take the gloves off and try to eliminate them? It’s a question central to Israel’s history…
thecritic.co.uk
June 23, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Stuck in Copenhagen airport all day, but luckily I have some great reading material with me 📚
June 21, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
What happens when allies don’t see eye to eye on intelligence? warontherocks.com/20...
Intelligence, Strategy, and the Israeli-Iranian War - War on the Rocks
States use intelligence to inform their strategic decisions — and to influence their friends. Israel has a long history of passing secret intelligence to
warontherocks.com
June 20, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...
U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb
www.nytimes.com
June 19, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Israel’s secret war inside Iran https://on.ft.com/44or9UI
Israel’s secret war inside Iran
Hacked phones, deep-cover agents and miniaturised weapons systems: the covert campaign that preceded Jewish state’s attack
on.ft.com
June 18, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Exclusive: President Trump told senior aides he approved attack plans for Iran, but is holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear program.
Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans For Iran But Has Withheld Final Order
The president is hoping that threatening to join Israel’s strikes will lead Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.
on.wsj.com
June 18, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
SCOOP: Tulsi Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing
Scoop: Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing amid Iran tensions
Gabbard had a principal-level White House commitment, one source familiar with her plans said.
www.axios.com
June 18, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
My latest BCISS blog post on the Iran Israel war.

Was Iran really close to building a bomb? I doubt it, but who knows?!

The pretext and cause for war are far less certain than its consequences.

intelligencestudiesreview.blog/2025/06/18/s...
Signals, Sabotage, and Strategic Collapse: Intelligence and Ambiguity in the Iran-Israel Conflict
The Israeli-Iran war remains in an extremely dangerous phase. Deterrence has collapsed. Although the Israelis have said they expect a two-week campaign, there is no obvious end in sight. Now, Iran’…
intelligencestudiesreview.blog
June 18, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).
I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64.

Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?
June 18, 2025 at 12:32 PM
I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64.

Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?
June 18, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Will China's spy agencies adopt A.I. tools faster than the west? New report by Recorded Future on Chinese intelligence agencies investments in A.I. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/u...
China’s Spy Agencies Are Investing Heavily in A.I., Researchers Say
www.nytimes.com
June 17, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Podcast alert! 🚨 📻 I had the pleasure of chatting about my collection Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict on "Yukiko and Patrik meet"👇

This book brings together experts on issues of intelligence and security and was produced by the Ax:son Johnson Institute 🌍

open.spotify.com/episode/6VsQ...
7. Yukiko och Patrik möter Matthew Hefler
Stolpe Stories · Episode
open.spotify.com
June 17, 2025 at 10:33 AM
With a lot of discussion about the US-Israel alliance in the news, I’m resharing an article I wrote last year for @engelsbergideas.bsky.social on how LBJ and the Cold War 1960s helped establish what became a special relationship 🇺🇸🇮🇱
How LBJ forged the US-Israel alliance
The special relationship between the United States and Israel was cemented by the support offered by Lyndon B. Johnson throughout the sixties.
engelsbergideas.com
June 16, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
A small boost for intelligence services in the spending review. "At this SR, the government will deliver an increase of £0.6 billion to the Single Intelligence Account...by 2028‑29, reflecting the rising demand on the [IC] to illuminate & deter threats." www.gov.uk/government/p...
Spending Review 2025 (HTML)
www.gov.uk
June 11, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Ukraine’s drone strike against Russia and Israel’s operations against Hezbollah show how technological advances and good tradecraft can potentially alter the course of wars
Modern Tech and Old-School Spycraft Are Redefining War
Ukraine’s drone strike against Russia’s bomber fleet and Israel’s operations against Hezbollah show how technological advances and good tradecraft can potentially alter the course of wars.
buff.ly
June 9, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Why would a country sabotage its own security agencies in wartime? Israel's leadership crisis reveals a troubling global pattern. warontherocks.com/20...
Populists vs. Spies in Israel and Beyond - War on the Rocks
Over a year and a half after the Oct. 7 attacks, the Israeli government is embroiled in an unprecedented institutional clash with the nation’s internal
warontherocks.com
June 9, 2025 at 9:00 AM