dr roger cremades
@rogercre.bsky.social
Climate Change, Complexity Economics, Cities, Cascading, Nexus, Data, Systems, Ecology, Risk.
Complex systems insights for sustainable futures.
Assoc Prof @ SEES SRI Leeds FRSA https://is.gd/1alYNP + https://is.gd/PfiCiI
Complex systems insights for sustainable futures.
Assoc Prof @ SEES SRI Leeds FRSA https://is.gd/1alYNP + https://is.gd/PfiCiI
Pinned
This is a social tipping point of magnitude, please do not oversee it: disasters removed from cover. This is a second round of major change in the (re)insurance system in response to climate impacts. We first characterised a first round of major changes with price spikes and local cover removal:
Reposted by dr roger cremades
Freedom is when I don’t have to pay taxes and people who exercise their constitutional rights are beaten, shoved into camps, and shot in the back or the face by masked agents of the state
January 26, 2026 at 10:54 AM
Freedom is when I don’t have to pay taxes and people who exercise their constitutional rights are beaten, shoved into camps, and shot in the back or the face by masked agents of the state
Reposted by dr roger cremades
see our new paper on the concept of habitability and what it means for adaptation: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... @priestleycentre.bsky.social
A habitability lens to boost effective local climate adaptation
Climate adaptation is what we (will) make of it, that is, either a burden or an opportunity for a brighter and equitable future. Achieving effective a…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 20, 2026 at 9:12 AM
see our new paper on the concept of habitability and what it means for adaptation: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... @priestleycentre.bsky.social
Reposted by dr roger cremades
This Perspective synthesizes insights from the past use of nature markets to identify design factors that are necessary if such markets are to achieve their environmental aims
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Five rules for scientifically credible nature markets - Nature Ecology & Evolution
This Perspective synthesizes insights from the past use of nature markets to identify design factors that are necessary if such markets are to achieve their environmental aims—although qualitative sco...
www.nature.com
January 20, 2026 at 9:17 AM
This Perspective synthesizes insights from the past use of nature markets to identify design factors that are necessary if such markets are to achieve their environmental aims
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by dr roger cremades
🎉 Yay, das Video zu unserem Pixi-Buch zu #Starkregen und #Dürre ist nun verfügbar:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbTB...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbTB...
Starkregen und Dürre - Wie gehen wir mit Wasserextremen um? | Pixi Wissen®
YouTube video by Bilderbuch TV | Carlsen K
www.youtube.com
January 19, 2026 at 11:16 AM
🎉 Yay, das Video zu unserem Pixi-Buch zu #Starkregen und #Dürre ist nun verfügbar:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbTB...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbTB...
Reposted by dr roger cremades
NEW:
For the new @natclimate.nature.com series Solutions in Practice, profiled a novel AI-powered long-range monsoon onset forecast with a 4-week lead time sent to 38 million Indian farmers, allowing them to plan for growing season based on the timing of the rain!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
For the new @natclimate.nature.com series Solutions in Practice, profiled a novel AI-powered long-range monsoon onset forecast with a 4-week lead time sent to 38 million Indian farmers, allowing them to plan for growing season based on the timing of the rain!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
AI-driven weather forecasts for climate adaptation in India - Nature Climate Change
Advanced monsoon onset prediction with multi-week lead time via an artificial intelligence (AI) weather model helps smallholder farmers adapt to a changing climate.
www.nature.com
January 16, 2026 at 4:49 PM
NEW:
For the new @natclimate.nature.com series Solutions in Practice, profiled a novel AI-powered long-range monsoon onset forecast with a 4-week lead time sent to 38 million Indian farmers, allowing them to plan for growing season based on the timing of the rain!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
For the new @natclimate.nature.com series Solutions in Practice, profiled a novel AI-powered long-range monsoon onset forecast with a 4-week lead time sent to 38 million Indian farmers, allowing them to plan for growing season based on the timing of the rain!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
This is a social tipping point of magnitude, please do not oversee it: disasters removed from cover. This is a second round of major change in the (re)insurance system in response to climate impacts. We first characterised a first round of major changes with price spikes and local cover removal:
January 16, 2026 at 11:49 AM
This is a social tipping point of magnitude, please do not oversee it: disasters removed from cover. This is a second round of major change in the (re)insurance system in response to climate impacts. We first characterised a first round of major changes with price spikes and local cover removal:
Reposted by dr roger cremades
Long overdue refresh of the SocioPatterns website! ✨ sociopatterns.org New content & datasets, and a chance to celebrate 17+ years of collabs, ~100 publications, 2000+ studies using our data. Thanks – more ahead! @alainbarrat.bsky.social @wouter-vdb.bsky.social @foolsdelight.bsky.social @isi.it
January 14, 2026 at 1:37 PM
Long overdue refresh of the SocioPatterns website! ✨ sociopatterns.org New content & datasets, and a chance to celebrate 17+ years of collabs, ~100 publications, 2000+ studies using our data. Thanks – more ahead! @alainbarrat.bsky.social @wouter-vdb.bsky.social @foolsdelight.bsky.social @isi.it
Reposted by dr roger cremades
Are students losing their voice to AI? A Warwick study analysed 10 years of submitted work to find out:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Style, sentiment, and quality of undergraduate writing in the AI era: A cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of 4,820 authentic empirical reports
As generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) becomes widespread in education, its influence on students' academic practice raises concern. We conduct…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 14, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Are students losing their voice to AI? A Warwick study analysed 10 years of submitted work to find out:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by dr roger cremades
Vancouver City Council unanimously approved implementation steps on the Rupert + Renfrew Area Plan, including a significant City-Initiated rezoning in the low rise apartment zones of the plan comprising 2580 parcels…
dailyhive.com/vancouver/ru...
dailyhive.com/vancouver/ru...
2,600 single-family lots in East Vancouver approved for six-storey apartments | Urbanized
Rezoning for six-storey apartments have been approved for single-family areas in the Rupert and Renfrew Station Area Plan of Vancouver.
dailyhive.com
January 14, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Vancouver City Council unanimously approved implementation steps on the Rupert + Renfrew Area Plan, including a significant City-Initiated rezoning in the low rise apartment zones of the plan comprising 2580 parcels…
dailyhive.com/vancouver/ru...
dailyhive.com/vancouver/ru...
Reposted by dr roger cremades
I warmly welcome the news that we will finally get Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the news that it is starting in Yorkshire is historic.
#NorthernPowerhouse #RailReform
#NorthernPowerhouse #RailReform
January 14, 2026 at 5:13 PM
I warmly welcome the news that we will finally get Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the news that it is starting in Yorkshire is historic.
#NorthernPowerhouse #RailReform
#NorthernPowerhouse #RailReform
Reposted by dr roger cremades
FYI: We will be releasing the 2025 edition of the Gallagher Re Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report next week on January 21.
January 13, 2026 at 2:08 PM
FYI: We will be releasing the 2025 edition of the Gallagher Re Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report next week on January 21.
The main new pervasive spatial pattern in the XXI century is citizens killed in the public space by their own governments, of course forerunners started in the XX century.
January 12, 2026 at 6:57 PM
The main new pervasive spatial pattern in the XXI century is citizens killed in the public space by their own governments, of course forerunners started in the XX century.
Influence or die!
"Media companies expect web traffic to their sites from online searches to plummet over the next three years, as AI summaries and chatbots change the way consumers use the internet. An overwhelming majority are also planning to encourage their journalists to behave more like" influencers.
Publishers fear AI search summaries and chatbots mean ‘end of traffic era’
Media bosses expect web referrals to plunge and want journalists to emulate content creators, report finds
www.theguardian.com
January 12, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Influence or die!
Great article, this is what matters most on Earth right now. Forget the chaotic fascist. Repeat: forget the orange noise!
January 11, 2026 at 9:01 PM
Great article, this is what matters most on Earth right now. Forget the chaotic fascist. Repeat: forget the orange noise!
Reposted by dr roger cremades
Cool summary on the role of grasslands as carbon sinks. In short, grasslands with grazers on it can potentiate soil organic carbon storage. It challenge the assumption of reforesting everywhere: doi.org/10.1126/scie...
Natural grasslands used for grazing livestock can mitigate climate change
Natural grasslands cover about 40% of the Earth’s land surface. Grassland plants have largely coevolved with wild grazing animals, making these ecosystems generally well-adapted to grazing livestock. ...
doi.org
January 10, 2026 at 9:36 PM
Cool summary on the role of grasslands as carbon sinks. In short, grasslands with grazers on it can potentiate soil organic carbon storage. It challenge the assumption of reforesting everywhere: doi.org/10.1126/scie...
Interesting cascading implications at the household level.
Sobering piece on the Berlin power outage showing resilience is tricky -
People had cars trapped behind electrically operated garage doors.
First day alerts sent to people’s phones ‘which included links to websites that were impossible to access without the internet.’
www.ft.com/content/c91d...
People had cars trapped behind electrically operated garage doors.
First day alerts sent to people’s phones ‘which included links to websites that were impossible to access without the internet.’
www.ft.com/content/c91d...
Berlin in the dark: a power outage shakes Germany
Arson that left parts of German capital without electricity for days highlights poor energy infrastructure
www.ft.com
January 10, 2026 at 2:20 PM
Interesting cascading implications at the household level.
Reposted by dr roger cremades
So, as sympathy for the US (government!) and its big tech and #broligarchs decreases (again and again)...
... let us #MEGA (make Europe great again) and use European tools! Break free from US-tech. ;) 🇪🇺
1️⃣ euroalternative.co
2️⃣ www.goeuropean.org
... let us #MEGA (make Europe great again) and use European tools! Break free from US-tech. ;) 🇪🇺
1️⃣ euroalternative.co
2️⃣ www.goeuropean.org
Discover European Alternatives to Big Tech Companies – EuroAlternative
Keep your data in Europe, support local innovation, and simplify business operations. Our directory connects you with European digital service providers.
euroalternative.co
January 9, 2026 at 10:48 AM
So, as sympathy for the US (government!) and its big tech and #broligarchs decreases (again and again)...
... let us #MEGA (make Europe great again) and use European tools! Break free from US-tech. ;) 🇪🇺
1️⃣ euroalternative.co
2️⃣ www.goeuropean.org
... let us #MEGA (make Europe great again) and use European tools! Break free from US-tech. ;) 🇪🇺
1️⃣ euroalternative.co
2️⃣ www.goeuropean.org
How to communicate science in Reddit? Any players or good experiences?
Users are turning to linked in and Reddit.
Daily users on X
May 2023: 9.5m
May 2024: 8.6m (-0.9m)
May 2025: 6.9m (-1.7m)
This msy go below 6m by Spring 2026, though LinkedIn around 5m, so would need a year as bad as 2024-25
But down 30% in 24 months, 2023-25, while Reddit doubled to 7m/day and 29.4m per month (10m ahead of Twitter!)
May 2023: 9.5m
May 2024: 8.6m (-0.9m)
May 2025: 6.9m (-1.7m)
This msy go below 6m by Spring 2026, though LinkedIn around 5m, so would need a year as bad as 2024-25
But down 30% in 24 months, 2023-25, while Reddit doubled to 7m/day and 29.4m per month (10m ahead of Twitter!)
January 10, 2026 at 9:55 AM
How to communicate science in Reddit? Any players or good experiences?
Reposted by dr roger cremades
A hitchhiker’s guide to information theoretical measures in psychology
by @nielsvs.bsky.social with me and Yves Rosseel
authors.elsevier.com/c/1mOwr53na-...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
by @nielsvs.bsky.social with me and Yves Rosseel
authors.elsevier.com/c/1mOwr53na-...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
January 7, 2026 at 9:02 AM
A hitchhiker’s guide to information theoretical measures in psychology
by @nielsvs.bsky.social with me and Yves Rosseel
authors.elsevier.com/c/1mOwr53na-...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
by @nielsvs.bsky.social with me and Yves Rosseel
authors.elsevier.com/c/1mOwr53na-...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
No, I cannot stop saying "beaver bombing"
January 7, 2026 at 11:01 AM
No, I cannot stop saying "beaver bombing"
A world with weak institutions is a world unable to adapt to climate change: we are heading towards limits and barriers to adaptation.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#academicsky #climatechange
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#academicsky #climatechange
Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation - Regional Environmental Change
Constraints and limits to adaptation are critical to understanding the extent to which human and natural systems can successfully adapt to climate change. We conduct a systematic review of 1,682 acade...
link.springer.com
January 6, 2026 at 7:58 AM
A world with weak institutions is a world unable to adapt to climate change: we are heading towards limits and barriers to adaptation.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#academicsky #climatechange
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#academicsky #climatechange
Reposted by dr roger cremades
This OPEN ACCESS article with @lindashi.bsky.social & Rob Olshansky explores how dominant property practices inhibit climate adaptation.
Governing Land on a Dynamic Earth: How Property Shapes Planning for Equitable Climate Adaptation www-tandfonline-com.libproxy.berkeley.edu/doi/full/10....
Governing Land on a Dynamic Earth: How Property Shapes Planning for Equitable Climate Adaptation www-tandfonline-com.libproxy.berkeley.edu/doi/full/10....
UC Berkeley Library Proxy Login
www-tandfonline-com.libproxy.berkeley.edu
January 5, 2026 at 10:35 PM
This OPEN ACCESS article with @lindashi.bsky.social & Rob Olshansky explores how dominant property practices inhibit climate adaptation.
Governing Land on a Dynamic Earth: How Property Shapes Planning for Equitable Climate Adaptation www-tandfonline-com.libproxy.berkeley.edu/doi/full/10....
Governing Land on a Dynamic Earth: How Property Shapes Planning for Equitable Climate Adaptation www-tandfonline-com.libproxy.berkeley.edu/doi/full/10....
Reposted by dr roger cremades
Forecasting specific events is hopeless, more so with specificity and longer time horizon
Forecasting trends (that spawn events) slightly easier, but still subject to projecting a future that follows the rules of the past
The complex interplay of social forces remains elusive
#riskmanagement
Forecasting trends (that spawn events) slightly easier, but still subject to projecting a future that follows the rules of the past
The complex interplay of social forces remains elusive
#riskmanagement
December 31, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Forecasting specific events is hopeless, more so with specificity and longer time horizon
Forecasting trends (that spawn events) slightly easier, but still subject to projecting a future that follows the rules of the past
The complex interplay of social forces remains elusive
#riskmanagement
Forecasting trends (that spawn events) slightly easier, but still subject to projecting a future that follows the rules of the past
The complex interplay of social forces remains elusive
#riskmanagement
#Wildcards 2026-2030:
US will invade Greenland, and only once they got supplied there (critical minerals), they will be able to fully move their focus to the Pacific region.
US will invade Greenland, and only once they got supplied there (critical minerals), they will be able to fully move their focus to the Pacific region.
Plausible 2026-2030 #wildcards seem clearer than usual:
- AI bubble will sunk US economy
- Cloud cover becoming much less frequent due to feedbacks that science could not predict
- Geoengineering will dominate climate policy
This makes for a grotesque yet intellectually beautiful end of the year
- AI bubble will sunk US economy
- Cloud cover becoming much less frequent due to feedbacks that science could not predict
- Geoengineering will dominate climate policy
This makes for a grotesque yet intellectually beautiful end of the year
December 27, 2025 at 4:55 PM
#Wildcards 2026-2030:
US will invade Greenland, and only once they got supplied there (critical minerals), they will be able to fully move their focus to the Pacific region.
US will invade Greenland, and only once they got supplied there (critical minerals), they will be able to fully move their focus to the Pacific region.
Busting a myth? Netherlands is average in car ownership. Bike and train integration is still poor. Utrech in particular is surrounded by low-density housing.
Data: newseu.cgtn.com/news/2019-09...
Data: newseu.cgtn.com/news/2019-09...
December 27, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Busting a myth? Netherlands is average in car ownership. Bike and train integration is still poor. Utrech in particular is surrounded by low-density housing.
Data: newseu.cgtn.com/news/2019-09...
Data: newseu.cgtn.com/news/2019-09...