Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
@redrabbleroz.bsky.social
Policy & Research, @cpsu.org.au | Research Fellow, @percapitaaustralia.bsky.social | On the left-wing of the possible | Views are my own🌹✊
https://linktr.ee/ochiu
https://linktr.ee/ochiu
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
#FoxHedgehog SA (state) 61-39 to ALP (63-37 vs ON)
ALP 40 Lib 19 ON 20 Green 12 Other 9
First SA poll of the election leadup and if anything even worse for Liberals in seat outlook terms.
www.foxhedgehog.com.au/news-den/the... #saparli
ALP 40 Lib 19 ON 20 Green 12 Other 9
First SA poll of the election leadup and if anything even worse for Liberals in seat outlook terms.
www.foxhedgehog.com.au/news-den/the... #saparli
The Advertiser - February 2026 - South Australian Election Poll — Fox & Hedgehog
The first South Australian election poll of 2026, published exclusively in The Advertiser shows Peter Malinauskas remains on the ascendancy in South Australia, while One Nation has overtaken the Libe...
www.foxhedgehog.com.au
February 9, 2026 at 11:29 PM
#FoxHedgehog SA (state) 61-39 to ALP (63-37 vs ON)
ALP 40 Lib 19 ON 20 Green 12 Other 9
First SA poll of the election leadup and if anything even worse for Liberals in seat outlook terms.
www.foxhedgehog.com.au/news-den/the... #saparli
ALP 40 Lib 19 ON 20 Green 12 Other 9
First SA poll of the election leadup and if anything even worse for Liberals in seat outlook terms.
www.foxhedgehog.com.au/news-den/the... #saparli
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
Those respondent preferences might be taken as implying an ALP/ON overall split somewhere in the ballpark of 57-43 but possibly the Liberal dunnos would be more of the HTV-card following variety which would pull it back somewhat. If that is the Liberals recommended prefs to ON.
February 10, 2026 at 12:12 AM
Those respondent preferences might be taken as implying an ALP/ON overall split somewhere in the ballpark of 57-43 but possibly the Liberal dunnos would be more of the HTV-card following variety which would pull it back somewhat. If that is the Liberals recommended prefs to ON.
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
#Newspoll: Liberal and other voter preferences to keep Pauline Hanson’s One Nation at bay
One Nation would have received just 29 per cent of preferences from Coalition, Greens and independent voters if an election was held last week.
www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit... ($) #auspol
One Nation would have received just 29 per cent of preferences from Coalition, Greens and independent voters if an election was held last week.
www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit... ($) #auspol
February 10, 2026 at 12:16 AM
#Newspoll: Liberal and other voter preferences to keep Pauline Hanson’s One Nation at bay
One Nation would have received just 29 per cent of preferences from Coalition, Greens and independent voters if an election was held last week.
www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit... ($) #auspol
One Nation would have received just 29 per cent of preferences from Coalition, Greens and independent voters if an election was held last week.
www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit... ($) #auspol
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
Also primaries were a big reason why third parties didn't emerge in the 20thC out of the farmer-labour populist coalitions, they usually tried the takeover method on both parties
February 9, 2026 at 5:29 AM
Also primaries were a big reason why third parties didn't emerge in the 20thC out of the farmer-labour populist coalitions, they usually tried the takeover method on both parties
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
💷 Why do the costs of health, education & care services seem to rise relentlessly?
In our latest blog we turn to William Baumol to explain why it pays to be cautious about rapid productivity growth/lower costs in people driven services.
@stephenboydippr.bsky.social🖊️
www.ippr.org/articles/ret...
In our latest blog we turn to William Baumol to explain why it pays to be cautious about rapid productivity growth/lower costs in people driven services.
@stephenboydippr.bsky.social🖊️
www.ippr.org/articles/ret...
Rethinking public sector productivity | IPPR
The Spending Review published alongside the 2026-27 Budget commits the Scottish government to a programme of reform ‘designed to protect frontline services
www.ippr.org
February 5, 2026 at 11:09 AM
💷 Why do the costs of health, education & care services seem to rise relentlessly?
In our latest blog we turn to William Baumol to explain why it pays to be cautious about rapid productivity growth/lower costs in people driven services.
@stephenboydippr.bsky.social🖊️
www.ippr.org/articles/ret...
In our latest blog we turn to William Baumol to explain why it pays to be cautious about rapid productivity growth/lower costs in people driven services.
@stephenboydippr.bsky.social🖊️
www.ippr.org/articles/ret...
Americans really don't get the fundamental nature of political parties is different in the USA. It's not about ideology or voting systems, it's that political parties are quasi-public institutions, highly regulated by the state instead of private associations that can exclude people from membership
The parties that have dominated European politics for decades are collapsing. Does the same fate await the Democrats and the GOP?, wonders columnist Ed Kilgore.
How Political Parties Die
The parties that have dominated European politics for decades are collapsing. Does the same fate await the Democrats and the GOP?, wonders columnist Ed Kilgore.
nymag.com
February 9, 2026 at 4:35 AM
Americans really don't get the fundamental nature of political parties is different in the USA. It's not about ideology or voting systems, it's that political parties are quasi-public institutions, highly regulated by the state instead of private associations that can exclude people from membership
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
#Newspoll federal poll. Here is the table graphic as it appears on page 4 of The Australian, 9 February 2026, including voting, leader approval ratings, and better Prime Minister. For this poll, unlike the previous polls, no TPP is given. The poll was of 1234 voters, taken 4 to 7 Feb. #auspol
February 9, 2026 at 12:26 AM
Doubt it would be uncontested if she ran
February 5, 2026 at 10:06 PM
Doubt it would be uncontested if she ran
They literally just blocked him from contesting a by-election in a historically safe seat like a week ago
February 5, 2026 at 6:35 AM
They literally just blocked him from contesting a by-election in a historically safe seat like a week ago
Probably the thing keeping him as PM at the moment
February 5, 2026 at 2:31 AM
Probably the thing keeping him as PM at the moment
The real question is whether they can win Upper House seats in jurisdictions with a low quota ie WA or NSW. If they can, then they become a viable threat on the left flank to the Greens
February 4, 2026 at 11:58 PM
The real question is whether they can win Upper House seats in jurisdictions with a low quota ie WA or NSW. If they can, then they become a viable threat on the left flank to the Greens
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
Hanson says the supposed anti-duopoly party One Nation would give supply to the ex-Coalition to assist it to govern. www.skynews.com.au/opinion/chri...
No Cookies | Sky News Australia
SkyNews.com.au — Australian News Headlines & World News Online from the best award winning journalists
www.skynews.com.au
February 4, 2026 at 11:02 PM
Hanson says the supposed anti-duopoly party One Nation would give supply to the ex-Coalition to assist it to govern. www.skynews.com.au/opinion/chri...
My sense is Legalise Cannabis is picking it up somewhat
February 4, 2026 at 10:52 PM
My sense is Legalise Cannabis is picking it up somewhat
Guess it depends on whether the PLP agrees an open contest is better than the status quo if they can’t agree on a unity candidate
February 4, 2026 at 10:50 PM
Guess it depends on whether the PLP agrees an open contest is better than the status quo if they can’t agree on a unity candidate
From afar, you really have to wonder if Keir Starmer is British Labour’s version of François Hollande
February 4, 2026 at 10:35 PM
From afar, you really have to wonder if Keir Starmer is British Labour’s version of François Hollande
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
Interesting arguments but I think the #auspol analysis falls short on a number of fronts & relies too much on a belief that a muscular subtropical Corbynism will somehow win over One Nation voters
Two good pieces on the Aus Greens and how they should be pushing way harder towards seizing on public discontent with elites right now
www.jonathansri.com/greensdeadend/
www.deepcutnews.com/p/the-greens...
www.jonathansri.com/greensdeadend/
www.deepcutnews.com/p/the-greens...
February 4, 2026 at 8:07 AM
Interesting arguments but I think the #auspol analysis falls short on a number of fronts & relies too much on a belief that a muscular subtropical Corbynism will somehow win over One Nation voters
After many, many rounds of intense doorknocking in hot & humid weather
February 4, 2026 at 8:45 AM
After many, many rounds of intense doorknocking in hot & humid weather
Polanskism is Corbynism decamped from Labour to the Greens. Used the same left populist strategy suggested by Laclau & Mouffe that influenced SYRIZA & Podemos too.
February 4, 2026 at 8:18 AM
Polanskism is Corbynism decamped from Labour to the Greens. Used the same left populist strategy suggested by Laclau & Mouffe that influenced SYRIZA & Podemos too.
Interesting arguments but I think the #auspol analysis falls short on a number of fronts & relies too much on a belief that a muscular subtropical Corbynism will somehow win over One Nation voters
Two good pieces on the Aus Greens and how they should be pushing way harder towards seizing on public discontent with elites right now
www.jonathansri.com/greensdeadend/
www.deepcutnews.com/p/the-greens...
www.jonathansri.com/greensdeadend/
www.deepcutnews.com/p/the-greens...
February 4, 2026 at 8:07 AM
Interesting arguments but I think the #auspol analysis falls short on a number of fronts & relies too much on a belief that a muscular subtropical Corbynism will somehow win over One Nation voters
Would love to see the longitudinal voting intention data by state, home owner vs renter & CaLD status
February 3, 2026 at 2:30 AM
Would love to see the longitudinal voting intention data by state, home owner vs renter & CaLD status
Really weird Robin Archer’s excellent book on this question does not even get a mention in this @jacobinmag.bsky.social interview when most of the points come straight from it. Also the divergence with Canada in the 1930s after the CCF forms doesn’t get a mention jacobin.com/2026/02/labo...
Why America Never Got a Labor Party
In Europe, labor unions and socialist parties marched together and won massive reforms. In the United States, they were divided. Vivek Chibber explains how that split still shapes US politics today.
jacobin.com
February 3, 2026 at 2:27 AM
Really weird Robin Archer’s excellent book on this question does not even get a mention in this @jacobinmag.bsky.social interview when most of the points come straight from it. Also the divergence with Canada in the 1930s after the CCF forms doesn’t get a mention jacobin.com/2026/02/labo...
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
This year, 680 Australians were recognised in the Order of Australia Honours List.
Notably, only 27% of recipients were women. However, what has received far less attention is the lack of cultural diversity within the list.
Per Capita explores this disparity in their new paper:
Notably, only 27% of recipients were women. However, what has received far less attention is the lack of cultural diversity within the list.
Per Capita explores this disparity in their new paper:
Australia Day 2026 Honours List Analysis - Per Capita
This document analyses the cultural composition of recipients in the 2026 Order of Australia Honours List.
percapita.org.au
February 2, 2026 at 10:55 PM
This year, 680 Australians were recognised in the Order of Australia Honours List.
Notably, only 27% of recipients were women. However, what has received far less attention is the lack of cultural diversity within the list.
Per Capita explores this disparity in their new paper:
Notably, only 27% of recipients were women. However, what has received far less attention is the lack of cultural diversity within the list.
Per Capita explores this disparity in their new paper:
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
Pedro Sánchez: Europe’s left-wing icon
Spain’s prime minister on how progressive politics can win on its own terms
By Adam Rasmi
Spain’s prime minister on how progressive politics can win on its own terms
By Adam Rasmi
Pedro Sánchez: Europe’s left-wing icon
Spain’s prime minister on how progressive politics can win on its own terms
www.newstatesman.com
February 1, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Pedro Sánchez: Europe’s left-wing icon
Spain’s prime minister on how progressive politics can win on its own terms
By Adam Rasmi
Spain’s prime minister on how progressive politics can win on its own terms
By Adam Rasmi
Reposted by Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)
Steve Bannon interfered in the 2019 Australian federal election, as part of a global effort to stifle climate action.
He should face investigation under Australia’s foreign interference laws.
#auspol
www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
He should face investigation under Australia’s foreign interference laws.
#auspol
www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
‘I had Clive Palmer do the … ads’: Trump lieutenant’s Australian election claim revealed in Epstein files
Trump ally Steve Bannon told paedophile Jeffrey Epstein in 2019 he had influenced an omnipresent election advertising campaign by the mining billionaire.
www.smh.com.au
February 1, 2026 at 7:34 AM
Steve Bannon interfered in the 2019 Australian federal election, as part of a global effort to stifle climate action.
He should face investigation under Australia’s foreign interference laws.
#auspol
www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
He should face investigation under Australia’s foreign interference laws.
#auspol
www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...