Lorin Hochstein
@norootcause.surfingcomplexity.com
Student of complex systems failures, resilience engineering, cognitive systems engineering. Will talk your ear off about @resilienceinsoftware.org
Pinned
I have no information about how this incident came to be but I can confidently predict that people will blame it on greedy execs and sloppy devs, regardless of what the actual details are. And they will therefore learn nothing from the details.
Reposted by Lorin Hochstein
I guess variations to wonder about are:
- does anyone know how *this* part works?
- does anyone value it?
- is there anyone accountable for it?
- is there a need for the accountability?
- how much of the overall system can be left unknown at once?
- how fast can this knowledge be reconstructed?
- does anyone know how *this* part works?
- does anyone value it?
- is there anyone accountable for it?
- is there a need for the accountability?
- how much of the overall system can be left unknown at once?
- how fast can this knowledge be reconstructed?
February 9, 2026 at 2:24 AM
I guess variations to wonder about are:
- does anyone know how *this* part works?
- does anyone value it?
- is there anyone accountable for it?
- is there a need for the accountability?
- how much of the overall system can be left unknown at once?
- how fast can this knowledge be reconstructed?
- does anyone know how *this* part works?
- does anyone value it?
- is there anyone accountable for it?
- is there a need for the accountability?
- how much of the overall system can be left unknown at once?
- how fast can this knowledge be reconstructed?
Some thoughts on variability in both humans and LLMs: surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/02/07/o...
On variability
I was listening to Todd Conklin’s Pre-Accident Investigation Podcast the other day, to the episode titled When Normal Variability Breaks: The ReDonda Story. The name ReDonda in the title refe…
surfingcomplexity.blog
February 7, 2026 at 9:01 PM
Some thoughts on variability in both humans and LLMs: surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/02/07/o...
Reposted by Lorin Hochstein
Just ran into an obvious case of Lorin’s law
Cc @norootcause.surfingcomplexity.com
Our monitoring was holding open 80k connections locally and within the cluster…..
The app traffic? <500 connections.
Cc @norootcause.surfingcomplexity.com
Our monitoring was holding open 80k connections locally and within the cluster…..
The app traffic? <500 connections.
February 6, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Just ran into an obvious case of Lorin’s law
Cc @norootcause.surfingcomplexity.com
Our monitoring was holding open 80k connections locally and within the cluster…..
The app traffic? <500 connections.
Cc @norootcause.surfingcomplexity.com
Our monitoring was holding open 80k connections locally and within the cluster…..
The app traffic? <500 connections.
Wrote some thoughts about complexity and LLMs:
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/31/a...
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/31/a...
Ashby taught us we have to fight fire with fire
There’s an old saying in software engineering, originally attributed to David Wheeler: We can solve any problem by introducing an extra level of indirection. The problem is that indirection a…
surfingcomplexity.blog
February 1, 2026 at 6:40 AM
Wrote some thoughts about complexity and LLMs:
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/31/a...
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/31/a...
Reposted by Lorin Hochstein
New blog post on the high costs of coordination and the implications for large organizations: surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/24/b...
Because coordination is expensive
If you’ve ever worked at a larger organization, stop me if you’ve heard (or asked!) any of these questions: “Why do we move so slowly as an organization? We need to figure out how…
surfingcomplexity.blog
January 25, 2026 at 1:30 AM
New blog post on the high costs of coordination and the implications for large organizations: surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/24/b...
Resilience engineering is about how successful systems are able to modify themselves to deal with a shock that is outside of what they can handle. This video by David Woods illustrates this phenomenon using the real-life example of an ER dealing with an influx of burn patients.
youtu.be/duNMGTmZ4FA
youtu.be/duNMGTmZ4FA
Resilience Engineering 101: Part 11 Beyond Surge Capacity
YouTube video by CSEL BackChannel
youtu.be
January 20, 2026 at 4:02 AM
Resilience engineering is about how successful systems are able to modify themselves to deal with a shock that is outside of what they can handle. This video by David Woods illustrates this phenomenon using the real-life example of an ER dealing with an influx of burn patients.
youtu.be/duNMGTmZ4FA
youtu.be/duNMGTmZ4FA
Power engineer talking to software dev:
“Imagine a distributed system where the load varies dynamically…”
“Gotcha.”
“…you can only shed load under emergency conditions…”
“OK, still with you.”
“…and you can’t use queues.”
“Wait, what?”
“Imagine a distributed system where the load varies dynamically…”
“Gotcha.”
“…you can only shed load under emergency conditions…”
“OK, still with you.”
“…and you can’t use queues.”
“Wait, what?”
January 18, 2026 at 9:29 PM
Power engineer talking to software dev:
“Imagine a distributed system where the load varies dynamically…”
“Gotcha.”
“…you can only shed load under emergency conditions…”
“OK, still with you.”
“…and you can’t use queues.”
“Wait, what?”
“Imagine a distributed system where the load varies dynamically…”
“Gotcha.”
“…you can only shed load under emergency conditions…”
“OK, still with you.”
“…and you can’t use queues.”
“Wait, what?”
Reposted by Lorin Hochstein
DOJ investigating whether Denmark lied on its Greenland mortgage.
January 17, 2026 at 6:23 PM
DOJ investigating whether Denmark lied on its Greenland mortgage.
I wrote a post about the Moylan arrow, and its relationship to Jens Rasmussen's skills, rules, and knowledge model.
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/17/f...
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/17/f...
From Rasmussen to Moylan
I hadn’t heard of James Moylan until I read a story about him in the Wall Street Journal after he passed away in December, but it turns out my gaze had fallen on one his designs almost every …
surfingcomplexity.blog
January 18, 2026 at 6:44 AM
I wrote a post about the Moylan arrow, and its relationship to Jens Rasmussen's skills, rules, and knowledge model.
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/17/f...
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/17/f...
Tired: learn to code
Wired: learn to predict the future
Wired: learn to predict the future
January 16, 2026 at 8:01 PM
Tired: learn to code
Wired: learn to predict the future
Wired: learn to predict the future
I know it’s only January, but I’d like to nominate this for most “2026-y” headline.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/n...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/n...
Even Nicolás Maduro’s Prosecutors Are Tied Up Reviewing Epstein Files
www.nytimes.com
January 16, 2026 at 6:10 PM
I know it’s only January, but I’d like to nominate this for most “2026-y” headline.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/n...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/n...
I'm anxiously awaiting to hear the details about just what happened with that Verizon outage that occurred yesterday. In the meantime, here's some completely uninformed speculation on my part about what that report will say:
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/15/v...
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/15/v...
Verizon outage report predictions
Yesterday, Verizon experienced a major outage. The company hasn’t released any details about how the outage happened yet, so there’s no quick takes to be had. And I have no personal exp…
surfingcomplexity.blog
January 16, 2026 at 5:59 AM
I'm anxiously awaiting to hear the details about just what happened with that Verizon outage that occurred yesterday. In the meantime, here's some completely uninformed speculation on my part about what that report will say:
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/15/v...
surfingcomplexity.blog/2026/01/15/v...
Dreamland by Joni Mitchell, except instead it’s “Greenland”
January 15, 2026 at 12:58 AM
Dreamland by Joni Mitchell, except instead it’s “Greenland”
My prediction: post-incident investigation of today’s Verizon outage will reveal planned maintenance as one of the contributing factors.
Note: I have no actual knowledge of what happened today. This prediction is just to keep me intellectually honest.
Note: I have no actual knowledge of what happened today. This prediction is just to keep me intellectually honest.
January 14, 2026 at 9:26 PM
My prediction: post-incident investigation of today’s Verizon outage will reveal planned maintenance as one of the contributing factors.
Note: I have no actual knowledge of what happened today. This prediction is just to keep me intellectually honest.
Note: I have no actual knowledge of what happened today. This prediction is just to keep me intellectually honest.
Path dependence is a helluva drug
January 14, 2026 at 6:07 AM
Path dependence is a helluva drug
Reposted by Lorin Hochstein
I am calling for a complete and total boycott of the Mercator projection in all news stories about Greenland until every member of the American public has seen this
January 13, 2026 at 5:32 PM
I am calling for a complete and total boycott of the Mercator projection in all news stories about Greenland until every member of the American public has seen this
Somebody's already made this joke, right?
January 14, 2026 at 5:55 AM
Somebody's already made this joke, right?
Reposted by Lorin Hochstein
look upon my works, ye mighty, and let me know what you think
January 12, 2026 at 7:37 PM
look upon my works, ye mighty, and let me know what you think
Reposted by Lorin Hochstein
It‘s only been four days since I originally posted this, but I think it’s holding up pretty well so far.
Gonna be a long year, I see
January 9, 2026 at 12:46 AM
It‘s only been four days since I originally posted this, but I think it’s holding up pretty well so far.
Reposted by Lorin Hochstein
can we stop for just a sec?
January 8, 2026 at 10:47 PM
can we stop for just a sec?