Niall Litchfield
@nlitchfield.bsky.social
Data Guy. OakTable member and cricket fan. Loves interesting problems and thinking. Niall sounds like the river. All views are my own. "Chris Bryant dressed as a scarecrow"
Pinned
Niall Litchfield
@nlitchfield.bsky.social
· Dec 31
End of the year means time to self evaluate my predictions for 2024 originally made over at the other place, but mow found at bsky.app/profile/nlit...
Moving my pinned post/thread from the other place.
g on from 2023 predictions. Some 2024 predictions. I'm going to try to follow this suggestion and assign percentages rather than H/M/L x.com/sam_atis/sta... again a 🧵a bit more rationale than last year.
g on from 2023 predictions. Some 2024 predictions. I'm going to try to follow this suggestion and assign percentages rather than H/M/L x.com/sam_atis/sta... again a 🧵a bit more rationale than last year.
I reviewed my 2024 predictions at bsky.app/profile/nlit.... 2025 (leaking into 2026) predictions together with associated confidence
There's no money for social care, and that is a PM/Chancellor choice because they won't broaden the tax base.
February 10, 2026 at 8:05 AM
There's no money for social care, and that is a PM/Chancellor choice because they won't broaden the tax base.
I did not know that.
February 10, 2026 at 8:01 AM
I did not know that.
Reposted by Niall Litchfield
Happy 13th anniversary to this pair of matching news headlines.
February 10, 2026 at 7:26 AM
Happy 13th anniversary to this pair of matching news headlines.
Accounts posting online that they've joined the party isn't proof of your central argument that the media tried and failed to bring down a PM. What happened yesterday was a Labour party stramash largely as a result of Polling, the PMs decision making, and his party management.
February 10, 2026 at 7:43 AM
Accounts posting online that they've joined the party isn't proof of your central argument that the media tried and failed to bring down a PM. What happened yesterday was a Labour party stramash largely as a result of Polling, the PMs decision making, and his party management.
Because teenagers and 'grab em by the pussy' didn't. That's a generous view of his apologists.
February 9, 2026 at 11:19 PM
Because teenagers and 'grab em by the pussy' didn't. That's a generous view of his apologists.
Reposted by Niall Litchfield
U.K. might lose a prime minister because a guy who worked for him knew another guy who hung out with Epstein. Meanwhile the U.S. opposition party is telling our President, who was Epstein's best friend, that his secret police should get better training so their public street murders look less messy.
February 9, 2026 at 4:07 PM
U.K. might lose a prime minister because a guy who worked for him knew another guy who hung out with Epstein. Meanwhile the U.S. opposition party is telling our President, who was Epstein's best friend, that his secret police should get better training so their public street murders look less messy.
I suspect Trump is bargaining on election rigging...
February 9, 2026 at 12:41 PM
I suspect Trump is bargaining on election rigging...
Let me be very clear....
February 8, 2026 at 6:58 PM
Let me be very clear....
Quite. Labour lost 11% (or one quarter of their previous steady polling) during the 24 election campaign.
February 8, 2026 at 5:57 PM
Quite. Labour lost 11% (or one quarter of their previous steady polling) during the 24 election campaign.
Agree, so far as I can tell the law says that the promoter *is* liable subject only to a defense that they carried out due diligence which would seem not to be the case here.
February 8, 2026 at 1:15 PM
Agree, so far as I can tell the law says that the promoter *is* liable subject only to a defense that they carried out due diligence which would seem not to be the case here.
One for @rentouljohn.bsky.social to call out in QTWTAIN
February 7, 2026 at 6:01 PM
One for @rentouljohn.bsky.social to call out in QTWTAIN
I'm not sure that representing human diversity as different *species* is an amazing advance. That idea has a long and terrible history.
February 7, 2026 at 2:29 PM
I'm not sure that representing human diversity as different *species* is an amazing advance. That idea has a long and terrible history.
Are the Unions championing this and giving kudos where it is due. Also no.
February 7, 2026 at 1:53 PM
Are the Unions championing this and giving kudos where it is due. Also no.
I'd say this is the most important *British* story currently. Trump being racist *is* on the front page, despite being news to no one.
February 7, 2026 at 1:49 PM
I'd say this is the most important *British* story currently. Trump being racist *is* on the front page, despite being news to no one.
Me and my kids with Radio4 and Terry Pratchett.
Repeatedly.
Repeatedly.
In an attempt to sell Ethan on Star Trek: The Next Generation, I just showed him one of the best episodes: The Measure of a Man.
"What did you think?"
"I was really bored."
"What did you think?"
"I was really bored."
February 6, 2026 at 9:49 PM
Me and my kids with Radio4 and Terry Pratchett.
Repeatedly.
Repeatedly.
Reposted by Niall Litchfield
Let's say a new leader became PM on 1st April. They could be Prime Minister until the 16th August 2029. That would make them the Prime Minister with the median time in office - 29 would have served more, 29 would have served less. Three Years & a few months is actually a really long time in politics
Yet this is a government with three years left to run and an enormous Commons majority. For all the problems, there is an enormous opportunity there for someone with the political nous to take it and use it.
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
February 6, 2026 at 12:24 PM
Let's say a new leader became PM on 1st April. They could be Prime Minister until the 16th August 2029. That would make them the Prime Minister with the median time in office - 29 would have served more, 29 would have served less. Three Years & a few months is actually a really long time in politics
My unpopular opinion is that Johnson might well have won re-election had Covid not happened. He is an exceptional communicator and without the blindingly obvious hypocrisy of the Covid parties I think he'd have fooled unengaged voters for at least the rest of the parliament.
February 6, 2026 at 2:14 PM
My unpopular opinion is that Johnson might well have won re-election had Covid not happened. He is an exceptional communicator and without the blindingly obvious hypocrisy of the Covid parties I think he'd have fooled unengaged voters for at least the rest of the parliament.
I loved The Crucible when we studied it for 'O' level. That may say more about me than him.
February 5, 2026 at 10:46 PM
I loved The Crucible when we studied it for 'O' level. That may say more about me than him.
My kids *all* got taught "An Inspector Calls". Not one of them was spurred to read or consume theatre/film more by it.
February 5, 2026 at 10:44 PM
My kids *all* got taught "An Inspector Calls". Not one of them was spurred to read or consume theatre/film more by it.
True, but "oh, I'm sorry, I am no good with numbers" is socially acceptable in a way that "oh, I'm sorry, I am no good with reading" really isn't.
February 5, 2026 at 10:42 PM
True, but "oh, I'm sorry, I am no good with numbers" is socially acceptable in a way that "oh, I'm sorry, I am no good with reading" really isn't.
They're too busy inventing digital images of people that they are selling 'ownership' of.
February 5, 2026 at 8:52 PM
They're too busy inventing digital images of people that they are selling 'ownership' of.
What is getting me is that they seem to want it more.
February 5, 2026 at 8:51 PM
What is getting me is that they seem to want it more.
Zack still got his boob enlargement hypnosis abilities posted online?
February 5, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Zack still got his boob enlargement hypnosis abilities posted online?