Nicolás de la Cerda
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ndelacerda.bsky.social
Nicolás de la Cerda
@ndelacerda.bsky.social
Post-Doctoral Fellow
Center for Inter-American Policy and Research
Tulane University
Pinned
🚨 NEW RESEARCH ALERT 🚨

My latest article is now available at @polbehavior.bsky.social!

"Cueing Without Parties: Experimental Evidence from Peru" explores how citizens navigate politics in contexts without stable parties and deeply-rooted partisan predispositions.

📖 doi.org/10.1007/s111...
Cueing Without Parties: Experimental Evidence from Peru - Political Behavior
Citizens infer policy information from partisan cues, yet their utility varies cross-nationally. In weakly institutionalized democracies with short-lived political parties and volatile party systems, ...
doi.org
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Every so often reminded measurement in social science takes a back seat to hypothesis testing which isn't great for knowledge accumulation.

More folks should read:

eiko-fried.com/wp-content/u...

We also use agree-disagree scales too much (myself included)
eiko-fried.com
October 13, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!

Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:

🧵⬇️
October 7, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
🌟 Latin Americanist Meetups (LAM) at #APSA2025!
📍 Malone’s, 608 W Pender St, Vancouver
🗓️ Fri, Sept 12 @ 6PM — 16-min walk from Convention Centre
✨ Drop-in, no RSVP, pay your way
✨ Come & go freely
Questions? Ask @ndelacerda.bsky.social 🍻 #LAM #Vancouver
September 10, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
🚨🚨 NEW PRE-PRINT 🚨🚨

Prominent theories in political psychology argue that threat causes increases in conservatism. Early experimental work supported this idea, but many of these studies were (severely) underpowered, and examined only a few threats and ideological DVs. 1/n osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
May 20, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
LAPIS los invita a enviar propuestas para paneles patrocinados sobre instituciones políticas para LASA 2026. Postulece antes del 8 de agosto a través de este formulario: forms.gle/EhLLj5fkdWba.... Los paneles seleccionados tendrán aceptación garantizada en la conferencia.
forms.gle
July 22, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Joséphine Lechartre Receives the 2025 Gabriel A. Almond Award for “Genocide and Cultural Change: Civilian Survival Strategies and the Reinvention of Political Culture During Guatemala’s Mayan Genocide”

The Gabriel A. Almond Award is presented annually by the American Political Science Association…
Joséphine Lechartre Receives the 2025 Gabriel A. Almond Award for “Genocide and Cultural Change: Civilian Survival Strategies and the Reinvention of Political Culture During Guatemala’s Mayan Genocide”
The Gabriel A. Almond Award is presented annually by the American Political Science Association (APSA) to honor the best doctoral dissertation in the field of comparative politics. Citation from the Award Committee: After reviewing a large number of excellent dissertations, the committee has unanimously selected for the Gabriel A. Almond Award Joséphine Lechartre’s exceptional work, “Genocide and Cultural Change: Civilian Survival Strategies and the Reinvention of Political Culture During Guatemala’s Mayan Genocide.”
politicalsciencenow.com
July 22, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Now out in @ajpseditor.bsky.social:

@luciamotoliniac.bsky.social, Marko Klašnja and I show that greater pressures to spend more money on campaigning leads not just to more politicians who are rich, but especially to more politicians who are are *super* rich

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library
We provide a comprehensive theoretical and empirical account of the relationship between campaign finance pressures and the wealth of politicians. We argue that the heavily right-skewed wealth distri...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
July 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
1/11 How does justification of violence against the police change when you live near protests that are actively policed?

In this article, just published in @sfjournal.bsky.social, we address this question using the 2019 Chilean social uprising as a case study.
doi.org/10.1093/sf/s...
July 10, 2025 at 1:46 AM
🚨 NEW RESEARCH ALERT 🚨

My latest article is now available at @polbehavior.bsky.social!

"Cueing Without Parties: Experimental Evidence from Peru" explores how citizens navigate politics in contexts without stable parties and deeply-rooted partisan predispositions.

📖 doi.org/10.1007/s111...
Cueing Without Parties: Experimental Evidence from Peru - Political Behavior
Citizens infer policy information from partisan cues, yet their utility varies cross-nationally. In weakly institutionalized democracies with short-lived political parties and volatile party systems, ...
doi.org
June 26, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Is Accountability Polarizing?

Holding anti-democratic leaders accountable is often seen as a risky endeavor. But a recent study in Brazil complicates that assumption.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/is-a... via @lawfaremedia.org @ndelacerda.bsky.social @isabellatingley.bsky.social Ayelén Vanegas
May 22, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Check out our new article in @lawfaremedia.org - with @ndelacerda.bsky.social and Ayelén Vanegas - which covers our our working paper "Institutional Accountability and Support for Democracy: Evidence from a Natural Experiment". You can see the article below.
Using recent survey data, @ndelacerda.bsky.social, @isabellatingley.bsky.social, and Ayelén Vanegas found that the charges against Jair Bolsanaro for his 2023 coup attempt didn't shake support for democracy among his backers and bolstered democratic support among those who did not vote for him.
Is Accountability Polarizing? What Bolsonaro’s Indictment Can Tell Us
Holding anti-democratic leaders accountable is often seen as a risky endeavor. But a recent study in Brazil complicates that assumption.
www.lawfaremedia.org
May 21, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
A bonus to being a member of the @chesdata.bsky.social team is being involved in *super* cool projects, like this one - led by @ndelacerda.bsky.social and just out in @thejop.bsky.social 👇
With much thanks to @ndelacerda.bsky.social & a great @chesdata.bsky.social team, we have a new JOP article (early access) comparing expert evaluations of party positions from Europe to Israel to North America to Australia. doi.org/10.1086/736578
A global scale of economic left-right party positions: cross-national and cross-expert perceptions of party placements | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org
May 19, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Check out this Lawfare article discussing our working paper on the effects of accountability measures on democratic attitudes in Brazil! You can read the full working paper @apsa-preprints.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/4429dwu6
May 21, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
With much thanks to @ndelacerda.bsky.social & a great @chesdata.bsky.social team, we have a new JOP article (early access) comparing expert evaluations of party positions from Europe to Israel to North America to Australia. doi.org/10.1086/736578
A global scale of economic left-right party positions: cross-national and cross-expert perceptions of party placements | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org
May 19, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Really pleased to see "Party brands, issue salience, and electoral volatility" published at @jeppjournal.bsky.social .

I argue that if electoral volatility increases as parties become more similar, that logic applies to both positional and salience differences.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Party brands, issue salience, and electoral volatility
Rates of vote switching and electoral volatility have risen across Europe. The degree of programmatic differentiation between parties is a crucial determinant of volatility. When parties take simil...
www.tandfonline.com
May 12, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
We are thrilled to anounce the release of the 2024 CHES-Europe at chesdata.eu/2024-chapel-.... As always, the data are freely available on the website.

Thank you to the hundreds of experts who share their expertise to make these data possible!
2024 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES) — Chapel Hill Expert Survey
chesdata.eu
March 3, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Now available Open Access:

📰 Does (immigration) framing influence public opinion?

🧵

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The Impact of Media Framing in Complex Information Environments
To what extent do news frames influence public opinion? While a large body of experimental research suggests sizable effects, it is unclear how these findings translate to authentically complex inf...
www.tandfonline.com
February 9, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
New Cambridge Element 'Cleavage Formation in the 21st Century' by Simon Bornschier, @lhaffert.bsky.social, @siljahausermann.bsky.social, Marco Steenberge & @dpzollinger.bsky.social out now!

Read #OpenAccess here: cup.org/3ZLtQ0o

#cambridgeelements #politics
December 11, 2024 at 12:18 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
October 26, 2024 at 12:23 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda

🚨to share: Training in causal inference:

For those in Berlin in Jan/Feb 2025 I will be teaching my hands on causal inference and experimental design class again

Info here: macartan.github.io/ci/
Registration open on Agnes

Full slide deck: macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2024.h...
Causal inference and experimental design
macartan.github.io
October 7, 2024 at 7:58 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
🚨🚨 NEW PAPER🚨🚨: From me and my awesome TBS lab/FAU team! Just accepted at BJSP. We find that cognitive ability, but not cognitive reflection is associated with MORE animosity towards ideologically discordant groups and MORE favoritism towards ideologically concordant groups. osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
October 6, 2024 at 2:10 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Thrilled that the final paper of my dissertation is now open access at Electoral Studies. In the article, I argue that party brands structure the efficacy of blurred appeal strategies based on how much a strategy signals potential brand deviation. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...
Redirecting
doi.org
February 24, 2024 at 12:39 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
We're new to bluesky! We will use this page to publicize our polisky work at chesdata.eu
Chapel Hill Expert Survey
chesdata.eu
February 12, 2024 at 6:51 PM
Reposted by Nicolás de la Cerda
Really pleased that my article with the incredibly kind, brilliant, insightful, and hireable Nico de la Cerda (EJPR) is now online (open access) at the EJPR. ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Are party families in Europe ideologically coherent today?
Researchers classify political parties into families by their shared cleavage origins. However, as parties have drifted from the original ideological commitments, it is unclear to what extent party f....
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 8, 2023 at 8:57 AM