Natalie Jackson
@nataliej.bsky.social
Opinions are my own. Pollster, columnist for National Journal, polsci PhD. Rural TX native, WTAMU & OU alum.
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
In the latest LEADING INDICATORS, Natalie Jackson writes that, according to Pew, an increasing # of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are uncomfortable with parts of Trump's agenda, including 4 in 10 who say he improperly encouraged probes of political opponents. Read on:
Four in 10 Republicans think Trump improperly encouraged investigations
GOP opinion is more nuanced than just lemmings following their leader.
njour.nl
October 15, 2025 at 11:00 PM
In the latest LEADING INDICATORS, Natalie Jackson writes that, according to Pew, an increasing # of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are uncomfortable with parts of Trump's agenda, including 4 in 10 who say he improperly encouraged probes of political opponents. Read on:
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
Politics is more divisive and personal for young people because our current political environment is all they’ve known.
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729603/cha...
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729603/cha...
Charlie Kirk’s suspected killer is 22 years old, and that’s not unusual
Young people are growing up in a toxic stew of violence and existential politics. They’re not OK.
www.nationaljournal.com
September 17, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Politics is more divisive and personal for young people because our current political environment is all they’ve known.
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729603/cha...
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729603/cha...
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
I'm presenting an AAPOR webinar on Thursday on best practices. portal.aapor.org/integratedEv....
This will draw on five years of AAPOR presentations, plus hot off the press findings from surveys we fielded at the end of August.
This will draw on five years of AAPOR presentations, plus hot off the press findings from surveys we fielded at the end of August.
portal.aapor.org
September 16, 2025 at 1:30 PM
I'm presenting an AAPOR webinar on Thursday on best practices. portal.aapor.org/integratedEv....
This will draw on five years of AAPOR presentations, plus hot off the press findings from surveys we fielded at the end of August.
This will draw on five years of AAPOR presentations, plus hot off the press findings from surveys we fielded at the end of August.
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.
September 10, 2025 at 7:39 PM
It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
On midterm conventions, plus so many links @mattglassman312.bsky.social @normornstein.bsky.social @mirandayaver.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social @johnsides.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social and more goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/midterm-co...
Midterm (Convention) Madness
Plus all the links.
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
September 7, 2025 at 4:23 PM
On midterm conventions, plus so many links @mattglassman312.bsky.social @normornstein.bsky.social @mirandayaver.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social @johnsides.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social and more goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/midterm-co...
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
The fact that the current HHS secretary is an anti-vaxxer isn’t the original sin; his ability to rise to prominence shows just how much the system was already broken by misinformation.
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729480/rfk...
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729480/rfk...
RFK Jr.’s rise is a symptom of a long-term systemic illness
Mandates and mistrust supercharged the anti-vax movement.
www.nationaljournal.com
September 3, 2025 at 10:30 PM
The fact that the current HHS secretary is an anti-vaxxer isn’t the original sin; his ability to rise to prominence shows just how much the system was already broken by misinformation.
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729480/rfk...
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729480/rfk...
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
We asked D.C. residents what they think about Trump's takeover of local police and deployment of troops/federal agents, along with crime, statehood, the mayor and related issues wapo.st/45EHfZQ
Most D.C. residents oppose Trump’s city police takeover, poll finds
Though crime continues to be a concern, most residents don’t think Trump’s actions will make D.C. safer, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.
wapo.st
August 20, 2025 at 1:49 PM
We asked D.C. residents what they think about Trump's takeover of local police and deployment of troops/federal agents, along with crime, statehood, the mayor and related issues wapo.st/45EHfZQ
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
Running into stationary objects can be painful, according to a recent pole.
August 6, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Running into stationary objects can be painful, according to a recent pole.
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...
AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer - AAPOR
On behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), we write to express deep concern regarding the removal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McE...
aapor.org
August 2, 2025 at 5:16 PM
AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
This chart from
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?
Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?
Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
July 15, 2025 at 10:09 PM
This chart from
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?
Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?
Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
I (+ coauthors) published research in 2014 showing how "professional" respondents had less political interest (i.e., they're there for the incentives) than those who only took one or two (i.e., probably in it because they're interested).
This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.
This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.
Fun metadata piece in the 2024 ANES pilot survey that I only just came across. They include how many previous YouGov surveys respondents had taken before this Feb 2024 survey. One of the respondents had taken 1966!
July 16, 2025 at 1:21 AM
I (+ coauthors) published research in 2014 showing how "professional" respondents had less political interest (i.e., they're there for the incentives) than those who only took one or two (i.e., probably in it because they're interested).
This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.
This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.
This chart from
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?
Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?
Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
July 15, 2025 at 10:09 PM
This chart from
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?
Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.
For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?
Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...
I would like a conversion rate for what running 5.5 miles in an absolute hot soupy swamp translates to in normal miles. It has to be around 8 based on effort expended. #marathontraining
July 9, 2025 at 2:00 PM
I would like a conversion rate for what running 5.5 miles in an absolute hot soupy swamp translates to in normal miles. It has to be around 8 based on effort expended. #marathontraining
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy.
I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them.
Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?
www.nationaljournal.com
July 9, 2025 at 12:45 AM
There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy.
I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy.
I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them.
Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?
www.nationaljournal.com
July 9, 2025 at 12:45 AM
There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy.
I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon.
No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
'You’re roadkill in the middle'
Murkowski aptly describes the problem facing moderate Republicans.
www.nationaljournal.com
July 1, 2025 at 9:39 PM
I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon.
No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon.
No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
'You’re roadkill in the middle'
Murkowski aptly describes the problem facing moderate Republicans.
www.nationaljournal.com
July 1, 2025 at 9:39 PM
I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon.
No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars'
(@nataliej.bsky.social)
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
(@nataliej.bsky.social)
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars'
The old specter of Iraq still looms large, but public opinion has fundamentally changed in 22 years.
www.nationaljournal.com
June 24, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars'
(@nataliej.bsky.social)
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
(@nataliej.bsky.social)
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
Public opinion for strikes in Iran will never look like it did before the Iraq war. We don't live in that world anymore. Whose idea it is and how we ask is what matters.
There is an interesting age divide among Republicans, though.
@nationaljournal.com
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
There is an interesting age divide among Republicans, though.
@nationaljournal.com
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
June 24, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Public opinion for strikes in Iran will never look like it did before the Iraq war. We don't live in that world anymore. Whose idea it is and how we ask is what matters.
There is an interesting age divide among Republicans, though.
@nationaljournal.com
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
There is an interesting age divide among Republicans, though.
@nationaljournal.com
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...
Support-oppose for strikes in Iran:
YouGov 35-46 (-11)
Ipsos 36-45 (-9)
CNN 44-56 (-12)
What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.
YouGov 35-46 (-11)
Ipsos 36-45 (-9)
CNN 44-56 (-12)
What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.
June 24, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Support-oppose for strikes in Iran:
YouGov 35-46 (-11)
Ipsos 36-45 (-9)
CNN 44-56 (-12)
What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.
YouGov 35-46 (-11)
Ipsos 36-45 (-9)
CNN 44-56 (-12)
What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.
Finally had time to read this.
McBride nails the problems in our discourse, the role of social media, and the left-right dynamics in the broader culture war. She's good at this. Really good.
McBride nails the problems in our discourse, the role of social media, and the left-right dynamics in the broader culture war. She's good at this. Really good.
Today’s episode of The Ezra Klein Show.
Representative Sarah McBride reckons with the trans rights movement’s shortcomings, and how to win hearts and minds through a politics of grace.
open.spotify.com/episode/1Ryl...
youtu.be/KlbNFsAGFRc?...
Representative Sarah McBride reckons with the trans rights movement’s shortcomings, and how to win hearts and minds through a politics of grace.
open.spotify.com/episode/1Ryl...
youtu.be/KlbNFsAGFRc?...
How to Beat Trump Back on Trans Rights — and Much Else | The Ezra Klein Show
YouTube video by The Ezra Klein Show
youtu.be
June 22, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Finally had time to read this.
McBride nails the problems in our discourse, the role of social media, and the left-right dynamics in the broader culture war. She's good at this. Really good.
McBride nails the problems in our discourse, the role of social media, and the left-right dynamics in the broader culture war. She's good at this. Really good.
10 years after the golden escalator, public opinion looks quite different. Some of this was in progress, but Trump accelerated it. We're more closely divided, and it changes how we look at polls.
Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...
Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...
After 10 years of Trump, analyzing polls has become a different game
Everything you knew is wrong. Black is white, up is down, and short is long.
www.nationaljournal.com
June 18, 2025 at 1:21 PM
10 years after the golden escalator, public opinion looks quite different. Some of this was in progress, but Trump accelerated it. We're more closely divided, and it changes how we look at polls.
Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...
Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...
Global confidence in Trump:
Canada: 22%
Mexico: 8%
... I'd imagine Canadians and Mexicans feel roughly the same if you adjust for Canadian politeness.
Canada: 22%
Mexico: 8%
... I'd imagine Canadians and Mexicans feel roughly the same if you adjust for Canadian politeness.
June 11, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Global confidence in Trump:
Canada: 22%
Mexico: 8%
... I'd imagine Canadians and Mexicans feel roughly the same if you adjust for Canadian politeness.
Canada: 22%
Mexico: 8%
... I'd imagine Canadians and Mexicans feel roughly the same if you adjust for Canadian politeness.
This week for
@nationaljournal.com, I dug into issue polling - if pollsters underestimated Trump, do we underestimate support for his policies?
It's possible. But likely not more than a few points.
But also, issue polling is hard to do well. Read more:
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728743/if-...
@nationaljournal.com, I dug into issue polling - if pollsters underestimated Trump, do we underestimate support for his policies?
It's possible. But likely not more than a few points.
But also, issue polling is hard to do well. Read more:
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728743/if-...
If election polls underestimate Trump, are we underestimating support for his policies?
We can’t know for sure, but we have some clues.
www.nationaljournal.com
June 10, 2025 at 10:06 PM
This week for
@nationaljournal.com, I dug into issue polling - if pollsters underestimated Trump, do we underestimate support for his policies?
It's possible. But likely not more than a few points.
But also, issue polling is hard to do well. Read more:
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728743/if-...
@nationaljournal.com, I dug into issue polling - if pollsters underestimated Trump, do we underestimate support for his policies?
It's possible. But likely not more than a few points.
But also, issue polling is hard to do well. Read more:
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728743/if-...
Reposted by Natalie Jackson
My latest column. @nationaljournal.com
You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything.
As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...
You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything.
As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...
AI is coming for polling, too
What happens when pollsters no longer interview actual humans? We may find out in 2026.
www.nationaljournal.com
June 5, 2025 at 7:53 PM
My latest column. @nationaljournal.com
You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything.
As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...
You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything.
As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...