@msobel.bsky.social
Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine’s IMF rep & former deputy NBU governor, joins OMFIF/me. We discuss Ukraine's current economic situation, military financing, energy & budget needs; IMF relations & program discussions; and ‘reparation’ loan.
www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...
www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...
November 5, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine’s IMF rep & former deputy NBU governor, joins OMFIF/me. We discuss Ukraine's current economic situation, military financing, energy & budget needs; IMF relations & program discussions; and ‘reparation’ loan.
www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...
www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...
Outstanding explainer from Jay Shambaugh.
One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org
November 4, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Outstanding explainer from Jay Shambaugh.
Trump/Xi Summit. A temporary pause amid decoupling & fragmentation. More tension on its way. Fundamental economic problems are not being addressed. They need a better way amid discord to speak to one another & keep a lid on pressures.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...
www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...
Trump/Xi truce is welcome, but decoupling and fundamental rifts remain - OMFIF
President Donald Trump declared his summit with Xi Jinping a ‘12’ on a scale of one to 10, while fawning over Xi as a great leader. Xi seemed far more reticent and stoic.The summit presented a hefty s...
www.omfif.org
November 3, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Trump/Xi Summit. A temporary pause amid decoupling & fragmentation. More tension on its way. Fundamental economic problems are not being addressed. They need a better way amid discord to speak to one another & keep a lid on pressures.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...
www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...
Trump/Japanese PM meeting. BOJ to meet.
US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism.
Huge thanks to Matt.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...
US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism.
Huge thanks to Matt.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...
Sanaenomics: bridging Abenomics and new capitalism - OMFIF
Sanae Takaichi begins her tenure as prime minister of Japan with a rare combination of political momentum and market confidence.
www.omfif.org
October 28, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Trump/Japanese PM meeting. BOJ to meet.
US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism.
Huge thanks to Matt.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...
US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism.
Huge thanks to Matt.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...
The US Treasury & the Argentine $20 bn "swap". If the Administration is bent on proceeding, it should at least mitigate risks & do so carefully and sensibly.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...
www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...
Argentina, the US Treasury and the $20bn ‘swap’ - OMFIF
If the administration is going to proceed, it should do so carefully
www.omfif.org
October 14, 2025 at 2:50 PM
The US Treasury & the Argentine $20 bn "swap". If the Administration is bent on proceeding, it should at least mitigate risks & do so carefully and sensibly.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...
www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...
Congrats! Well deserved.
The @washingtonpost.com won a Loeb Award for best international reporting last night for "The Money War," our 2024 series on unintended consequences of the massive rise in U.S. financial sanctions — great to celebrate with @jeffstein.bsky.social, @foianate.bsky.social, @federicacocco.bsky.social
October 11, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Congrats! Well deserved.
My IMF/WB Annual Meeting Scenesetter/curtain raiser.
Dark times for the world (dis)order. Delegates may act as if it's business as usual, but it no longer is!
www.omfif.org/2025/10/imf-...
Dark times for the world (dis)order. Delegates may act as if it's business as usual, but it no longer is!
www.omfif.org/2025/10/imf-...
IMF-World Bank meetings: a support group for shellshocked delegates - OMFIF
Rather, they will come to the meetings – hosted by the heart and soul of the liberal, rules-based, multilateral order – for a trepidatious, hand-holding support group.
www.omfif.org
October 10, 2025 at 3:17 PM
My IMF/WB Annual Meeting Scenesetter/curtain raiser.
Dark times for the world (dis)order. Delegates may act as if it's business as usual, but it no longer is!
www.omfif.org/2025/10/imf-...
Dark times for the world (dis)order. Delegates may act as if it's business as usual, but it no longer is!
www.omfif.org/2025/10/imf-...
Wow! Marco Annunziata & I somewhat agree.
The Fed's econ & rate outlook may not add up. Is the Fed's quest for insurance vs labor market weakness underappreciating upside risks to inflation, accommodative fin conditions & the mystical neutral rate? 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/09/the-...
The Fed's econ & rate outlook may not add up. Is the Fed's quest for insurance vs labor market weakness underappreciating upside risks to inflation, accommodative fin conditions & the mystical neutral rate? 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/09/the-...
The Fed's economic and rate outlook might not add up - OMFIF
After the September Federal Reserve rate cut, investors anticipate further rapid and decisive monetary easing. However, the data give reason to doubt whether a series of rate cuts is – or indeed shoul...
www.omfif.org
September 23, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Wow! Marco Annunziata & I somewhat agree.
The Fed's econ & rate outlook may not add up. Is the Fed's quest for insurance vs labor market weakness underappreciating upside risks to inflation, accommodative fin conditions & the mystical neutral rate? 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/09/the-...
The Fed's econ & rate outlook may not add up. Is the Fed's quest for insurance vs labor market weakness underappreciating upside risks to inflation, accommodative fin conditions & the mystical neutral rate? 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/09/the-...
Interesting post!
Per below. US obviously doesn't hold $ FX reserves. Our FX reserves are meager, held in euros & yen, split equally between Treasury/Fed.That is because the $ floats, we almost never intervene & FX reserves are only used for intervention to counter disorderly markets.
Per below. US obviously doesn't hold $ FX reserves. Our FX reserves are meager, held in euros & yen, split equally between Treasury/Fed.That is because the $ floats, we almost never intervene & FX reserves are only used for intervention to counter disorderly markets.
7️⃣ - The US Fed holds two-thirds of its foreign-exchange reserves in euro
• Euro-denominated assets are a popular investment for the US Fed
• Other major central banks hold at most ~40% of their foreign-exchange reserves in euro (and often much less)
• Euro-denominated assets are a popular investment for the US Fed
• Other major central banks hold at most ~40% of their foreign-exchange reserves in euro (and often much less)
September 18, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Interesting post!
Per below. US obviously doesn't hold $ FX reserves. Our FX reserves are meager, held in euros & yen, split equally between Treasury/Fed.That is because the $ floats, we almost never intervene & FX reserves are only used for intervention to counter disorderly markets.
Per below. US obviously doesn't hold $ FX reserves. Our FX reserves are meager, held in euros & yen, split equally between Treasury/Fed.That is because the $ floats, we almost never intervene & FX reserves are only used for intervention to counter disorderly markets.
Bill Dudley joined me for a joint Bretton Woods Committee/OMFIF discussion on yest's FOMC outcome & monetary policy outlook.👇👇 Huge thanks to Bill, & two wonderful discussants: Ellen Meade (ex-Fed, now Duke U & James Egelhof (BNP Paribas/ex-FRBNY).
www.omfif.org/live/?_page=15
www.omfif.org/live/?_page=15
OMFIF Live - OMFIF
September FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy Live: Thursday 18 September 14:00 (London) William Dudley, chair of the Bretton Woods Committee and former president of the Federal Reserve B...
www.omfif.org
September 18, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Bill Dudley joined me for a joint Bretton Woods Committee/OMFIF discussion on yest's FOMC outcome & monetary policy outlook.👇👇 Huge thanks to Bill, & two wonderful discussants: Ellen Meade (ex-Fed, now Duke U & James Egelhof (BNP Paribas/ex-FRBNY).
www.omfif.org/live/?_page=15
www.omfif.org/live/?_page=15
The Fed has missed its 2% inflation target for years. Despite the assumption inflation will revert to 2%, short & long term forces abound, pushing up inflation.
Is the US stealthily creeping toward a 3% inflation regime? 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...
Is the US stealthily creeping toward a 3% inflation regime? 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...
Is the US creeping towards a 3% inflation regime? - OMFIF
The Federal Reserve aims for 2% inflation of personal consumption expenditures over the long term. Why 2%? The Fed argues ‘when households
www.omfif.org
September 10, 2025 at 3:32 PM
The Fed has missed its 2% inflation target for years. Despite the assumption inflation will revert to 2%, short & long term forces abound, pushing up inflation.
Is the US stealthily creeping toward a 3% inflation regime? 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...
Is the US stealthily creeping toward a 3% inflation regime? 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...
Absolutely right. Too much talk and not enough action!
We needed secondary sanctions three years ago 👇
Left chart shows direct EU exports to Russia (red) and indirect exports to Russia via Central Asia (blue). Right chart shows the same for the US. You have to wonder what the EU's endgame is. Export numbers are down a bit, but the EU still trades massively with the enemy. Are we really this greedy?
September 1, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Absolutely right. Too much talk and not enough action!
A guest OMFIF commentary from my friend and colleague, Marco Annunziata.
He asks, is there any hope for Europe? His answer -- NO!
Huge thanks to Marco.
www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...
He asks, is there any hope for Europe? His answer -- NO!
Huge thanks to Marco.
www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...
Is there any hope for Europe? - OMFIF
Is there any hope for Europe? No. Earlier this year we saw a burst of irrational exuberance about Europe.
www.omfif.org
September 1, 2025 at 4:48 PM
A guest OMFIF commentary from my friend and colleague, Marco Annunziata.
He asks, is there any hope for Europe? His answer -- NO!
Huge thanks to Marco.
www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...
He asks, is there any hope for Europe? His answer -- NO!
Huge thanks to Marco.
www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...
Spot on from Brad. Totally right that tariffs can be rewired. Two added points: 1) that Admin might need to pay back IEEPA tariffs is a big deal for Bessent et al; 2) I find odd that alleged trade deficit emergency isn't drawing more attention to our whopping fiscal deficits given S-I identity.
Important from Brad on the court ruling Trump’s IEEPA tariffs illegal. But if Europeans hoped this would sink US tariffs, they’ll be disappointed: the admin has other tools.
The other implication is lingering uncertainty — one reason Brussels is keen to seal a deal.
www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
The other implication is lingering uncertainty — one reason Brussels is keen to seal a deal.
www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
How Court Rulings Could Affect Trump’s Aggressive Trade Policies
After another legal setback, the next high-stakes ruling on President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is expected to come from the Supreme Court. But the administration could…
www.cfr.org
September 1, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Spot on from Brad. Totally right that tariffs can be rewired. Two added points: 1) that Admin might need to pay back IEEPA tariffs is a big deal for Bessent et al; 2) I find odd that alleged trade deficit emergency isn't drawing more attention to our whopping fiscal deficits given S-I identity.
Reposted
My thoughts in the NYT on where we stand now with the Fed. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...
Opinion | What the Federal Reserve, Supreme Court and Senate Need to Do After Lisa Cook’s Firing
Trump’s move to fire a Federal Reserve governor threatens the independence of the central bank. Its autonomy is not lost, but three institutions must act.
www.nytimes.com
August 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
My thoughts in the NYT on where we stand now with the Fed. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...
Reposted
Honorary Alphavillain Lee Buchheit on what is shaping up to be ANOTHER sovereign debt restructuring lawsuit of the century
Yes, it involves Argentina again. Obvs. on.ft.com/41jlTju
Yes, it involves Argentina again. Obvs. on.ft.com/41jlTju
Disrupting the delicate sovereign debt equilibrium
Default leads to lawsuit; lawsuit leads to precedent; precedent leads to suffering.
on.ft.com
August 26, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Honorary Alphavillain Lee Buchheit on what is shaping up to be ANOTHER sovereign debt restructuring lawsuit of the century
Yes, it involves Argentina again. Obvs. on.ft.com/41jlTju
Yes, it involves Argentina again. Obvs. on.ft.com/41jlTju
Reposted
A reminder: Dr. Cook's mortgages are not the real issue. The threat to US macro stability is the clear intention of the Trump Admin to influence the composition of the FOMC in defiance of the structures designed to insulate the institution from such influence. Thank you for coming to my TED talk
August 22, 2025 at 6:44 PM
A reminder: Dr. Cook's mortgages are not the real issue. The threat to US macro stability is the clear intention of the Trump Admin to influence the composition of the FOMC in defiance of the structures designed to insulate the institution from such influence. Thank you for coming to my TED talk
Major bond markets face deep pain & trouble. Many bond traders and holders are going to lose their shirts.
There is no easy way out of today's budget messes without enormous pain. Society is in denial & more populism/despair is on the way. 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/fisc...
There is no easy way out of today's budget messes without enormous pain. Society is in denial & more populism/despair is on the way. 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/fisc...
www.omfif.org
August 21, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Major bond markets face deep pain & trouble. Many bond traders and holders are going to lose their shirts.
There is no easy way out of today's budget messes without enormous pain. Society is in denial & more populism/despair is on the way. 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/fisc...
There is no easy way out of today's budget messes without enormous pain. Society is in denial & more populism/despair is on the way. 👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/fisc...
A gaggle of European leaders rushing to see Trump to protect not only Ukraine but their own hides from being sold out to Putin shows how weak Europe unfortunately is on the global stage. And half-baked Alaska shows America has lost its way & marbles.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/the-...
www.omfif.org/2025/08/the-...
The US and Russia are in charge of Europe - OMFIF
The spectacle of European leaders chaperoning Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, to the White House shows how, in post-post cold war Europe, the US and Russia are in charge – and Europe is ...
www.omfif.org
August 18, 2025 at 4:47 PM
A gaggle of European leaders rushing to see Trump to protect not only Ukraine but their own hides from being sold out to Putin shows how weak Europe unfortunately is on the global stage. And half-baked Alaska shows America has lost its way & marbles.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/the-...
www.omfif.org/2025/08/the-...
Thank you, Gov DeWine.
It's recognized in the DMV that Cleveland, for example, is a safe, crime-free, utopian panacea & veritable garden spot of the world.
Please have your troops help bring Cleveland to DC!
It's recognized in the DMV that Cleveland, for example, is a safe, crime-free, utopian panacea & veritable garden spot of the world.
Please have your troops help bring Cleveland to DC!
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has ordered 150 National Guard members to support the District of Columbia National Guard as states send troops.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine orders 150 National Guard members to DC as states send troops
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has ordered 150 National Guard members to support the District of Columbia National Guard as states send troops.
bit.ly
August 17, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Thank you, Gov DeWine.
It's recognized in the DMV that Cleveland, for example, is a safe, crime-free, utopian panacea & veritable garden spot of the world.
Please have your troops help bring Cleveland to DC!
It's recognized in the DMV that Cleveland, for example, is a safe, crime-free, utopian panacea & veritable garden spot of the world.
Please have your troops help bring Cleveland to DC!
Beyond talk, Merz should join the Zelensky/Trump meetings and any future Summits.
Ukraine’s European allies will speak on Sunday, a day before Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with Donald Trump in Washington on Friday’s talks in Alaska with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine’s Allies Plan Talks Before Zelenskiy’s Washington Trip
Ukraine’s European allies will speak on Sunday, a day before President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with Donald Trump in Washington on Friday’s talks in Alaska with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, France said.
bloom.bg
August 16, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Beyond talk, Merz should join the Zelensky/Trump meetings and any future Summits.
This is a wonderful thought piece. Very relevant and sound conclusions.
Shitcoins or stablecoins?
Replacement for fiat currencies or rival?
How can we understand the political economy of cryptocurrencies & its implications for global finance, state sovereignty, & the international system?
🧵 & our new paper with @tompepinsky.com:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Replacement for fiat currencies or rival?
How can we understand the political economy of cryptocurrencies & its implications for global finance, state sovereignty, & the international system?
🧵 & our new paper with @tompepinsky.com:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
August 16, 2025 at 4:54 PM
This is a wonderful thought piece. Very relevant and sound conclusions.
Great piece by Mark Copelovitch!!
We're doing everything you'd do if you to give it away. But the reality is that no one actually wants the "exorbitant privilege" for themselves...at least not 🇪🇺 or 🇨🇳, the only viable alternatives. And that, like our own problems, is entirely about politics.
My new @wpr.bsky.social piece:
My new @wpr.bsky.social piece:
Dollar Dominance Is Here to Stay
If there’s going to be a major shift away from the U.S. dollar, someone needs to provide a viable alternative. That isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
August 15, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Great piece by Mark Copelovitch!!
Thanks for circulating this piece and the kind words.
A good place to start is @msobel.bsky.social excellent blog.
Mark is a veteran of the US Treasury and the IMF.
Europeans and Germans have not traditionally thought so much about China's currency undervaluation, but I think they should start to take note.
4/4
www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...
Mark is a veteran of the US Treasury and the IMF.
Europeans and Germans have not traditionally thought so much about China's currency undervaluation, but I think they should start to take note.
4/4
www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...
It’s time for China to allow large renminbi appreciation - OMFIF
The renminbi exchange rate is woefully undervalued – an impediment to overhauling China’s distorted growth model and a major contributor to global trade tensions. While it is no secret that the curren...
www.omfif.org
August 8, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Thanks for circulating this piece and the kind words.
It's high time for significant appreciation of a hyper-undervalued RMB. My thoughts on why China should move now to make it happen.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...
www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...
It’s time for China to allow large renminbi appreciation - OMFIF
The renminbi exchange rate is woefully undervalued – an impediment to overhauling China’s distorted growth model and a major contributor to global trade tensions. While it is no secret that the curren...
www.omfif.org
August 6, 2025 at 1:27 PM
It's high time for significant appreciation of a hyper-undervalued RMB. My thoughts on why China should move now to make it happen.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...
www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...