@msobel.bsky.social
Predicting FX markets is a fool's errand but here are 6 2026 FX observations.
www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...
www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...
Outlook 2026: Foreign exchange markets will be less exciting than in 2025 - OMFIF
Predicting foreign exchange markets is a fool’s errand, but it has nonetheless sprouted a cottage industry with analysts even audaciously offering pinpoint numerical forecasts conjuring up the fallacy...
www.omfif.org
January 5, 2026 at 4:47 PM
Predicting FX markets is a fool's errand but here are 6 2026 FX observations.
www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...
www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...
Congrats to Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman on their outstanding work!
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...
Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact?
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Congrats to Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman on their outstanding work!
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...
Reposted
You wanna read a new (hopefully improved, thanks to very helpful comments from a bunch of very smart colleagues) version of paper called "The Political Economy of Shitcoins"? Of course you do. @tompepinsky.com & I are at your service.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
January 2, 2026 at 5:54 PM
You wanna read a new (hopefully improved, thanks to very helpful comments from a bunch of very smart colleagues) version of paper called "The Political Economy of Shitcoins"? Of course you do. @tompepinsky.com & I are at your service.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
There are precious few organizations, let alone ones that exist in political milieu, that couldn't benefit from reform.
But one shouldn't give succor to those who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.
But one shouldn't give succor to those who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.
As with so much else, Democrats have been suckered into championing an institution that yes, needs protection from the White House but was also already desperately in need of reform www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026...
Trump Almost Has a Point About the Federal Reserve
The central bank has long abused its power in ways that benefit the financial sector at the expense of everyone else.
www.theatlantic.com
January 2, 2026 at 3:40 PM
There are precious few organizations, let alone ones that exist in political milieu, that couldn't benefit from reform.
But one shouldn't give succor to those who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.
But one shouldn't give succor to those who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Reposted
Once again, there is exactly chance of the RMB rivaling or replacing either the dollar (or the euro) as the dominant international reserve currency, because Xi Jinping & 🇨🇳 policymakers are totally unwilling to reverse their macroeconomic policies to make this possible:
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Required reading for those European capitals that are still in denial. As a recent Rhodium note cited by the FT stresses, a weak renminbi, persistent deflation and excess capacity in China will erode the bite of conventional trade defence tools. New thinking is needed
www.ft.com/content/079f...
www.ft.com/content/079f...
Why China is doubling down on its export-led growth model
The country plans to reinforce its dominance of global manufacturing, despite persistent deflation at home and rising tensions abroad
www.ft.com
January 2, 2026 at 6:55 AM
Once again, there is exactly chance of the RMB rivaling or replacing either the dollar (or the euro) as the dominant international reserve currency, because Xi Jinping & 🇨🇳 policymakers are totally unwilling to reverse their macroeconomic policies to make this possible:
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Reposted
Predictions for 2026: (i) the US will outgrow everyone, but the Dollar will fall; (ii) the Euro zone will resume its slide towards deflation; (iii) EM currencies will rally as the G10 EM-ifies; and (iv) the debasement trade will continue to roar ahead...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...
January 1, 2026 at 1:12 PM
Predictions for 2026: (i) the US will outgrow everyone, but the Dollar will fall; (ii) the Euro zone will resume its slide towards deflation; (iii) EM currencies will rally as the G10 EM-ifies; and (iv) the debasement trade will continue to roar ahead...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...
Very well said!
I sat in rooms debating how and if to use sanctions. With each use, you know you are incentivizing others to insulate themselves from the U.S. economy and system. You balance this with gains to national interest from using them. No national interest offset anymore, just damage to us over time.
12/In the US, it is unclear what national interest is being served by sanctioning EU officials. Increasingly, it looks like hyper elites (think Big Tech) is driving the bus. The result: an acceleration in the breakdown of transatlantic relations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
December 24, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Very well said!
Ukraine needs help in funding its military campaign as well as the basic costs of running a govt -- paying soldiers, pensions etc -- w/out resorting to money printing/hyperinflation.
Trump is wrong to oppose the reparation loan.
Europe will look lame, weak & pathetic if it doesn't go ahead now.
Trump is wrong to oppose the reparation loan.
Europe will look lame, weak & pathetic if it doesn't go ahead now.
A summit of EU leaders tomorrow will test whether the bloc will hold together — or whether Donald Trump can divide it.
The EU’s problem isn’t Belgium — it’s Trump
As European leaders prepare to meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss Ukraine funding, they do so under huge and unprecedented pressure from the U.S.
www.politico.eu
December 17, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Ukraine needs help in funding its military campaign as well as the basic costs of running a govt -- paying soldiers, pensions etc -- w/out resorting to money printing/hyperinflation.
Trump is wrong to oppose the reparation loan.
Europe will look lame, weak & pathetic if it doesn't go ahead now.
Trump is wrong to oppose the reparation loan.
Europe will look lame, weak & pathetic if it doesn't go ahead now.
👍👍In the face of the greatest challenge to European security in decades, if Europe can't find a way to make the reparation loan, it will prove that Trump is totally right in stating that Europe is WEAK! It will put Ukraine at the mercy of the Trump Admin, a very bad outcome.
Germany could always be trusted to do the right thing in Europe after exhausting all the bad options (couple years too late in eurocrisis, much better since).
Now the roles are reversed. Germany has led on Mercosur and the reparations loan - what do the other big member-states / veto players do?
Now the roles are reversed. Germany has led on Mercosur and the reparations loan - what do the other big member-states / veto players do?
Spot on. Moment of truth for Paris and Rome.
Is France serious about strategic autonomy or is it just a vacuous talking point once Europe hits real trade-offs?
And is Italy with Europe and Ukraine or Moscow and Washington?
Is France serious about strategic autonomy or is it just a vacuous talking point once Europe hits real trade-offs?
And is Italy with Europe and Ukraine or Moscow and Washington?
December 15, 2025 at 3:05 PM
👍👍In the face of the greatest challenge to European security in decades, if Europe can't find a way to make the reparation loan, it will prove that Trump is totally right in stating that Europe is WEAK! It will put Ukraine at the mercy of the Trump Admin, a very bad outcome.
Due to unavoidable scheduling issues, this virtual session will now take place on Friday, December 12 at 10 a.m., EST Please sign up.
omfif.org/meetings/dec...
omfif.org/meetings/dec...
December 4, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Due to unavoidable scheduling issues, this virtual session will now take place on Friday, December 12 at 10 a.m., EST Please sign up.
omfif.org/meetings/dec...
omfif.org/meetings/dec...
To discuss the FOMC outcomes and US monetary/financial policy, Don Kohn, former Fed Vice-Chair, and Dennis Lockhart, ex-Atlanta Fed head, will join OMFIF on Thursday, December 11 at 10 am EST.
Please sign up.👇
www.omfif.org/meetings/dec...
Please sign up.👇
www.omfif.org/meetings/dec...
December FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF
Donald Kohn, senior fellow in the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution, previously vice chair of the Federal Reserve, and Dennis Lockhart, who was president and CEO of the Federal Res...
www.omfif.org
December 2, 2025 at 4:47 PM
To discuss the FOMC outcomes and US monetary/financial policy, Don Kohn, former Fed Vice-Chair, and Dennis Lockhart, ex-Atlanta Fed head, will join OMFIF on Thursday, December 11 at 10 am EST.
Please sign up.👇
www.omfif.org/meetings/dec...
Please sign up.👇
www.omfif.org/meetings/dec...
Japanese MOF FX policy seems riddled in inconsistency.
Jawboning & intervention — doing something for sake of doing something, rather than problem solving for super weak yen.
www.omfif.org/2025/12/japa...
Jawboning & intervention — doing something for sake of doing something, rather than problem solving for super weak yen.
www.omfif.org/2025/12/japa...
Japanese foreign exchange policy riddled in contradictions - OMFIF
The Japanese authorities are back at it. A new prime minister and finance minister are huffing and puffing about yen weakness and jawboning markets – including with threats to intervene. We’ve seen th...
www.omfif.org
December 1, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Japanese MOF FX policy seems riddled in inconsistency.
Jawboning & intervention — doing something for sake of doing something, rather than problem solving for super weak yen.
www.omfif.org/2025/12/japa...
Jawboning & intervention — doing something for sake of doing something, rather than problem solving for super weak yen.
www.omfif.org/2025/12/japa...
There is absolutely no defense for the way the US is treating Ukraine. The US should step up with financing and military support. But Europe should extend the reparation loan.
November 28, 2025 at 4:47 PM
There is absolutely no defense for the way the US is treating Ukraine. The US should step up with financing and military support. But Europe should extend the reparation loan.
Given where we are the real issue is not the US.
It is whether Europe will sign off on the "reparation" loan.
Europe claims to be strong & united. Yet with its physical security challenged by Russia, it can't find the wherewithal to provide the loan due to Belgian financial concerns. Go figure.
It is whether Europe will sign off on the "reparation" loan.
Europe claims to be strong & united. Yet with its physical security challenged by Russia, it can't find the wherewithal to provide the loan due to Belgian financial concerns. Go figure.
Ukraine faces US$155bn funding gap for 2026-27
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
November 28, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Given where we are the real issue is not the US.
It is whether Europe will sign off on the "reparation" loan.
Europe claims to be strong & united. Yet with its physical security challenged by Russia, it can't find the wherewithal to provide the loan due to Belgian financial concerns. Go figure.
It is whether Europe will sign off on the "reparation" loan.
Europe claims to be strong & united. Yet with its physical security challenged by Russia, it can't find the wherewithal to provide the loan due to Belgian financial concerns. Go figure.
Absolutely spot on from Jay!
This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it
Another shameful Trump act. South Africa has serious problems but it remains exemplary both in its peaceful democratic transition from a racist regime and in its more recent bounce back from corrupt populism. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
November 28, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Absolutely spot on from Jay!
Ausgezeichnet! Bravo Kanzler!
Germany says Trump should invite South Africa to G20 summit reut.rs/48DlqMT
Germany says Trump should invite South Africa to G20 summit
Germany said on Thursday that it would seek to persuade Donald Trump to reverse his decision to exclude South Africa from next year's G20 summit in Florida following the U.S. president's false claims that the country mistreated its white minority.
reut.rs
November 27, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Ausgezeichnet! Bravo Kanzler!
An absolutely disgraceful embarrassment. Others should indeed express objections to US and boycott if needed.
Another shameful Trump act. South Africa has serious problems but it remains exemplary both in its peaceful democratic transition from a racist regime and in its more recent bounce back from corrupt populism. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026
www.nytimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 3:47 PM
An absolutely disgraceful embarrassment. Others should indeed express objections to US and boycott if needed.
Despite the disgraceful treatment of S. Africa & G20 by USA, the moribund G20 is not dead. Ironically, the US 2026 Presidency could revive a slimmed down G20. Here's a roadmap.👇Will Trump seize it?
Thanks to Global Governance Project/G20 Research Group.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/back...
Thanks to Global Governance Project/G20 Research Group.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/back...
Back to the future for America’s G20 tenure - OMFIF
Thoughts on a US G20 presidency under Trump in 2026
www.omfif.org
November 21, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Despite the disgraceful treatment of S. Africa & G20 by USA, the moribund G20 is not dead. Ironically, the US 2026 Presidency could revive a slimmed down G20. Here's a roadmap.👇Will Trump seize it?
Thanks to Global Governance Project/G20 Research Group.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/back...
Thanks to Global Governance Project/G20 Research Group.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/back...
Huge thanks to Jay for these kind words!
Important piece from @msobel.bsky.social & Brad Setser on China’s rising CA surplus and the undervaluation of the RMB. All the attention right now is on US disruption of global trade. But important to remember the imbalance caused by China’s policies & implications for the rest of the world.
Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇
Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...
Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...
November 19, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Huge thanks to Jay for these kind words!
Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇
Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...
Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...
It’s time for China to let the renminbi appreciate sharply - OMFIF
The renminbi is hugely undervalued. This is an impediment to tackling China’s enormous current account surplus and the leadership’s stated desire of boosting domestic demand.
www.omfif.org
November 18, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇
Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...
Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...
Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine’s IMF rep & former deputy NBU governor, joins OMFIF/me. We discuss Ukraine's current economic situation, military financing, energy & budget needs; IMF relations & program discussions; and ‘reparation’ loan.
www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...
www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...
November 5, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine’s IMF rep & former deputy NBU governor, joins OMFIF/me. We discuss Ukraine's current economic situation, military financing, energy & budget needs; IMF relations & program discussions; and ‘reparation’ loan.
www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...
www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...
Outstanding explainer from Jay Shambaugh.
One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org
November 4, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Outstanding explainer from Jay Shambaugh.
Trump/Xi Summit. A temporary pause amid decoupling & fragmentation. More tension on its way. Fundamental economic problems are not being addressed. They need a better way amid discord to speak to one another & keep a lid on pressures.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...
www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...
Trump/Xi truce is welcome, but decoupling and fundamental rifts remain - OMFIF
President Donald Trump declared his summit with Xi Jinping a ‘12’ on a scale of one to 10, while fawning over Xi as a great leader. Xi seemed far more reticent and stoic.The summit presented a hefty s...
www.omfif.org
November 3, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Trump/Xi Summit. A temporary pause amid decoupling & fragmentation. More tension on its way. Fundamental economic problems are not being addressed. They need a better way amid discord to speak to one another & keep a lid on pressures.
www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...
www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...
Trump/Japanese PM meeting. BOJ to meet.
US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism.
Huge thanks to Matt.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...
US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism.
Huge thanks to Matt.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...
Sanaenomics: bridging Abenomics and new capitalism - OMFIF
Sanae Takaichi begins her tenure as prime minister of Japan with a rare combination of political momentum and market confidence.
www.omfif.org
October 28, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Trump/Japanese PM meeting. BOJ to meet.
US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism.
Huge thanks to Matt.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...
US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism.
Huge thanks to Matt.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...
The US Treasury & the Argentine $20 bn "swap". If the Administration is bent on proceeding, it should at least mitigate risks & do so carefully and sensibly.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...
www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...
Argentina, the US Treasury and the $20bn ‘swap’ - OMFIF
If the administration is going to proceed, it should do so carefully
www.omfif.org
October 14, 2025 at 2:50 PM
The US Treasury & the Argentine $20 bn "swap". If the Administration is bent on proceeding, it should at least mitigate risks & do so carefully and sensibly.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...
www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...