Manuel Saenz
@mrsaenz.bsky.social
Personal musings on the intersection of people and tech, tech and business. Retweet (is that a thing in BlueSky?) does not mean endorsement, but that is worth a thought.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Time has named the Architects of AI as 2025 person of the year, featuring Jensen Huang of Nvidia, $NVDA, Elon Mus of $TSLAk, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg of $META, Lisa Su, Dario Amodei, Demis Hassabis, and Fei-Fei Li.
December 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Time has named the Architects of AI as 2025 person of the year, featuring Jensen Huang of Nvidia, $NVDA, Elon Mus of $TSLAk, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg of $META, Lisa Su, Dario Amodei, Demis Hassabis, and Fei-Fei Li.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Between 1979–2019, top pay (90th pct.) climbed 53%, middle only 23%, bottom (10th pct.) even lower 7%. (Productivity per hour climbed much more at 73%.)
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
December 11, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Between 1979–2019, top pay (90th pct.) climbed 53%, middle only 23%, bottom (10th pct.) even lower 7%. (Productivity per hour climbed much more at 73%.)
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Bob Kagan: "We take for granted the degree of peace we’ve enjoyed over the past eight decades. We think that’s the norm. The norm is actually a lot more like what the world looked like before 1945. I don’t think people are ready for the world we’re now moving into."
Chaos Is Coming
America helped keep the (relative) peace for 80 years. Not anymore.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Bob Kagan: "We take for granted the degree of peace we’ve enjoyed over the past eight decades. We think that’s the norm. The norm is actually a lot more like what the world looked like before 1945. I don’t think people are ready for the world we’re now moving into."
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
HSBC forecasts that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030
November 27, 2025 at 5:36 PM
HSBC forecasts that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030
"...Si uno toma en serio los datos disponibles, la conclusión es tan sencilla como preocupante: España ha venido configurando, en los últimos años, un país mucho más amable para quienes ya han llegado a la jubilación que para quienes aún están intentando llegar."
No es país para jóvenes
Por Pablo García Guzmán
España envejece. Las cifras son conocidas y repetidas: en 2024, una de cada cinco personas tenía más de 65 años; en 2050 será aproximadamente una de cada tres. El gasto en p...
nadaesgratis.es
November 27, 2025 at 10:20 AM
"...Si uno toma en serio los datos disponibles, la conclusión es tan sencilla como preocupante: España ha venido configurando, en los últimos años, un país mucho más amable para quienes ya han llegado a la jubilación que para quienes aún están intentando llegar."
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Really looks like the United States is about to launch a regime change war against Venezuela with:
-No casus belli
-No authorization from Congress
-No allies or international support
-No plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela
-No preparation for any sort of stabilization or containment of the fallout
-No casus belli
-No authorization from Congress
-No allies or international support
-No plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela
-No preparation for any sort of stabilization or containment of the fallout
November 24, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Really looks like the United States is about to launch a regime change war against Venezuela with:
-No casus belli
-No authorization from Congress
-No allies or international support
-No plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela
-No preparation for any sort of stabilization or containment of the fallout
-No casus belli
-No authorization from Congress
-No allies or international support
-No plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela
-No preparation for any sort of stabilization or containment of the fallout
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
November 22, 2025 at 9:36 AM
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Bellingcat’s contact email has always been a magnet for people with fairly unusual views; paranoid delusions, sprawling conspiracies, the works. But recently, the pattern has shifted, we’re seeing more and more emails clearly written with ChatGPT.
November 19, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Bellingcat’s contact email has always been a magnet for people with fairly unusual views; paranoid delusions, sprawling conspiracies, the works. But recently, the pattern has shifted, we’re seeing more and more emails clearly written with ChatGPT.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
The UK government is determining whether Chinese-made electric buses in the UK can be remotely switched off. If someone wanted to, for some reason. There were plans to introduce them in London. The concept of technological and infrastructural sovereignty is gaining on significance.
November 9, 2025 at 6:54 PM
The UK government is determining whether Chinese-made electric buses in the UK can be remotely switched off. If someone wanted to, for some reason. There were plans to introduce them in London. The concept of technological and infrastructural sovereignty is gaining on significance.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands
The short documentary “Rovina’s Choice” tells the story of what goes when aid goes.
newyorkermag.visitlink.me
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
"As Congress hands the executive more emergency powers, emergencies become the norm rather than the exception. Soon the executive, rather than Congress, is actually making the law — and enforcing it at the same time."
Opinion | Neil Gorsuch delivered the most withering questions in the tariffs case
The conservative Supreme Court justice was tough on Trump’s lawyers and spoke up for a fading Congress.
wapo.st
November 6, 2025 at 1:57 PM
"As Congress hands the executive more emergency powers, emergencies become the norm rather than the exception. Soon the executive, rather than Congress, is actually making the law — and enforcing it at the same time."
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @piie.com. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy.
www.piie.com/publications...
www.piie.com/publications...
September 24, 2025 at 5:34 PM
🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @piie.com. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy.
www.piie.com/publications...
www.piie.com/publications...
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Between 1995 and 2001, 35 million workers were laid off from state-owned enterprises in China. They were pushed into creating their own companies, leading to an increase in the number, size, and quality of entrepreneurs. t.co/cPSoNwDTQc
December 9, 2024 at 5:22 AM
Between 1995 and 2001, 35 million workers were laid off from state-owned enterprises in China. They were pushed into creating their own companies, leading to an increase in the number, size, and quality of entrepreneurs. t.co/cPSoNwDTQc
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
The U.S. has conducted 10 strikes on alleged drug-carrying boats, killing 43 people.
Remember: no judge or jury has found these boats were trafficking drugs. We're simply taking Trump's word for it.
He’s unilaterally acting as judge, jury, and executioner.
This is a danger to us all.
Remember: no judge or jury has found these boats were trafficking drugs. We're simply taking Trump's word for it.
He’s unilaterally acting as judge, jury, and executioner.
This is a danger to us all.
October 24, 2025 at 7:03 PM
The U.S. has conducted 10 strikes on alleged drug-carrying boats, killing 43 people.
Remember: no judge or jury has found these boats were trafficking drugs. We're simply taking Trump's word for it.
He’s unilaterally acting as judge, jury, and executioner.
This is a danger to us all.
Remember: no judge or jury has found these boats were trafficking drugs. We're simply taking Trump's word for it.
He’s unilaterally acting as judge, jury, and executioner.
This is a danger to us all.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
This paper shows that authors from low-income countries remain excluded from top-ranked economics journals and receive less attention from other economists. Developing country authors are far less likely to be published in top journals even when holding citation counts constant.
October 24, 2025 at 6:51 AM
This paper shows that authors from low-income countries remain excluded from top-ranked economics journals and receive less attention from other economists. Developing country authors are far less likely to be published in top journals even when holding citation counts constant.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Brazil and Argentina are the huge beneficiaries of the US tariffs on China, taking the US export share, while the Argentine operation is subsidized by US taxpayers to the tune of $40 bn (so far). It's brilliant (for China).
October 17, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Brazil and Argentina are the huge beneficiaries of the US tariffs on China, taking the US export share, while the Argentine operation is subsidized by US taxpayers to the tune of $40 bn (so far). It's brilliant (for China).
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Las administraciones no siempre quieren responder, pero tú tienes derecho a preguntar. Siempre.
📩 Te enseñamos cómo hacerlo con un curso gratuito por email: 6 semanas, 6 lecciones. Simple.
Apúntate aquí 👉 civio.es/curso-newsle...
📩 Te enseñamos cómo hacerlo con un curso gratuito por email: 6 semanas, 6 lecciones. Simple.
Apúntate aquí 👉 civio.es/curso-newsle...
Curso gratuito de acceso a la información: aprende a pedir datos a las administraciones
Aprende a ejercer tu derecho de acceso a la información pública. Con 6 lecciones por email en 6 semanas, descubrirás cómo hacer solicitudes efectivas a las instituciones y obtener transparencia.
civio.es
October 17, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Las administraciones no siempre quieren responder, pero tú tienes derecho a preguntar. Siempre.
📩 Te enseñamos cómo hacerlo con un curso gratuito por email: 6 semanas, 6 lecciones. Simple.
Apúntate aquí 👉 civio.es/curso-newsle...
📩 Te enseñamos cómo hacerlo con un curso gratuito por email: 6 semanas, 6 lecciones. Simple.
Apúntate aquí 👉 civio.es/curso-newsle...
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
We were actually getting somewhere, too. 😞
@sbmitche.bsky.social
www.library.hbs.edu/working-know...
@sbmitche.bsky.social
www.library.hbs.edu/working-know...
October 15, 2025 at 11:47 AM
We were actually getting somewhere, too. 😞
@sbmitche.bsky.social
www.library.hbs.edu/working-know...
@sbmitche.bsky.social
www.library.hbs.edu/working-know...
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
2025 isn't over yet but it's unlikely that Twitter will see a resurgence of research discussions.
October 14, 2025 at 4:27 PM
2025 isn't over yet but it's unlikely that Twitter will see a resurgence of research discussions.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
US-China tariffs: where do they currently stand?
- US average tariff on imports from China: 57.6%
- China average tariff on imports from US: 32.6%
Note: We have been updating this chart since September 2019
- US average tariff on imports from China: 57.6%
- China average tariff on imports from US: 32.6%
Note: We have been updating this chart since September 2019
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
Average US tariffs on Chinese exports now stand at 57.6 percent and cover 100 percent of all goods. China's average tariffs on US exports are at 32.6 percent and cover 100 percent of all goods. US tar...
www.piie.com
October 11, 2025 at 3:38 PM
US-China tariffs: where do they currently stand?
- US average tariff on imports from China: 57.6%
- China average tariff on imports from US: 32.6%
Note: We have been updating this chart since September 2019
- US average tariff on imports from China: 57.6%
- China average tariff on imports from US: 32.6%
Note: We have been updating this chart since September 2019
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
NEW: Reuters took a closer look at violent crime in D.C. after President Trump began a show of force here. Despite the big investment of federal resources, it's really hard at this point to see any dramatic changes.
www.reuters.com/world/us/did...
www.reuters.com/world/us/did...
October 4, 2025 at 12:44 PM
NEW: Reuters took a closer look at violent crime in D.C. after President Trump began a show of force here. Despite the big investment of federal resources, it's really hard at this point to see any dramatic changes.
www.reuters.com/world/us/did...
www.reuters.com/world/us/did...
"It could be the case that the last 20% of ICE cars are in places where electricity infrastructure is non-existent, which would lead people to want to keep old, dirty cars for decades. A price-based system would avoid this outcome. The current “no gasoline cars sold from 2035 onwards” does not."
The failure of Macron
The supply-side reforms that weren't
www.siliconcontinent.com
October 13, 2025 at 2:46 PM
"It could be the case that the last 20% of ICE cars are in places where electricity infrastructure is non-existent, which would lead people to want to keep old, dirty cars for decades. A price-based system would avoid this outcome. The current “no gasoline cars sold from 2035 onwards” does not."
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Highly relevant!
"Artificial Intelligence in Research and Development" by Benjamin Jones.
www.nber.org/papers/w34312
"Artificial Intelligence in Research and Development" by Benjamin Jones.
www.nber.org/papers/w34312
October 12, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Highly relevant!
"Artificial Intelligence in Research and Development" by Benjamin Jones.
www.nber.org/papers/w34312
"Artificial Intelligence in Research and Development" by Benjamin Jones.
www.nber.org/papers/w34312
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
WATCH: @adamposen.bsky.social explains why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs & deportations has been lagged but is coming.
Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged
YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics
www.youtube.com
October 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
WATCH: @adamposen.bsky.social explains why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs & deportations has been lagged but is coming.