Michael Stephens
@mikerstephens.bsky.social
Senior Fellow @FPRI Senior Associate Fellow @RUSI_Org, @RANDEurope, Views my own, RTs not endorsements....Fulham FC
Reposted by Michael Stephens
For some reason this was glitching earlier but I can confirm my conversation with @mikerstephens.bsky.social is now properly live!
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
October 23, 2025 at 11:28 AM
For some reason this was glitching earlier but I can confirm my conversation with @mikerstephens.bsky.social is now properly live!
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
I spoke to @mikerstephens.bsky.social about the latest in Gaza and the wider regional dynamics.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
podcasts.apple.com
October 23, 2025 at 9:46 AM
I spoke to @mikerstephens.bsky.social about the latest in Gaza and the wider regional dynamics.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
Fascinating and richly reported story on the mechanics and consequences of Iranian fruit & veg smuggling. “Iran now supplies nine out of ten cauliflowers, tomatoes and watermelons imported by the UAE, a near-monopoly built in just a few years.” www.economist.com/interactive/...
Uncovering the secret food trade that corrupts Iran’s neighbours
Oil and terrorism are not the country’s only exports
www.economist.com
August 7, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Fascinating and richly reported story on the mechanics and consequences of Iranian fruit & veg smuggling. “Iran now supplies nine out of ten cauliflowers, tomatoes and watermelons imported by the UAE, a near-monopoly built in just a few years.” www.economist.com/interactive/...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
In 1945 my father was with the British fleet in the Pacific. He visited Nagasaki not long after it was destroyed.
I wrote a brief post about the visual record he left behind.
I wrote a brief post about the visual record he left behind.
Nagasaki 1945
A dip into the family photo album
open.substack.com
August 6, 2025 at 8:31 AM
In 1945 my father was with the British fleet in the Pacific. He visited Nagasaki not long after it was destroyed.
I wrote a brief post about the visual record he left behind.
I wrote a brief post about the visual record he left behind.
In which myself and @snellarthur.bsky.social discuss the catastrophic aid situation in Gaza, and France's recognition of a Palestinian State. It's long long discussion, but there's a lot to say. It's frank and will cut at times, but we've tried to be fair.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a...
A Moment of Change? France recognises the State of Palestine
Podcast Episode · Behind The Lines with Arthur Snell · 27/07/2025 · 50m
podcasts.apple.com
July 28, 2025 at 8:59 AM
In which myself and @snellarthur.bsky.social discuss the catastrophic aid situation in Gaza, and France's recognition of a Palestinian State. It's long long discussion, but there's a lot to say. It's frank and will cut at times, but we've tried to be fair.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
“exercises led to the conclusion that … any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/u...
Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb
www.nytimes.com
June 17, 2025 at 1:47 PM
“exercises led to the conclusion that … any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/u...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
Looks like IDF decapitation of leadership prevented Iranian missile launch. Notable that Iran, despite strategic warning, hadn’t delegated launch authority. Or launchers were suppressed. www.axios.com/2025/06/13/i...
June 13, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Looks like IDF decapitation of leadership prevented Iranian missile launch. Notable that Iran, despite strategic warning, hadn’t delegated launch authority. Or launchers were suppressed. www.axios.com/2025/06/13/i...
It appears that Netanyahu has the freedom to escalate at will at this point. The only way off the ladder would seem to me to be Trump, who can say to Iran, "look what happens if you don't talk to me, this is the cost. Come back to the table now, or this gets way worse."
June 13, 2025 at 9:24 AM
It appears that Netanyahu has the freedom to escalate at will at this point. The only way off the ladder would seem to me to be Trump, who can say to Iran, "look what happens if you don't talk to me, this is the cost. Come back to the table now, or this gets way worse."
Reposted by Michael Stephens
Healey: “SDR recommends commencing discussions with the US & NATO on enhancing the UK’s participation in NATO’s nuclear mission. We have accepted that …, as we have the other 61 recommendations…I will not comment in public on those discussions” ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-confirms-...
UK confirms aim to buy F-35A for NATO nuclear strike role
The UK Government has now confirmed the aim to buy F-35A jets as part of "a shift to a new mix of F35Bs and F35As” to support NATO’s nuclear sharing mission.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
June 9, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Healey: “SDR recommends commencing discussions with the US & NATO on enhancing the UK’s participation in NATO’s nuclear mission. We have accepted that …, as we have the other 61 recommendations…I will not comment in public on those discussions” ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-confirms-...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
Striking chart. "In a scenario where defence is increased to 3% of GDP, and DHSC gets 3.4% (around the long-run average), all other departments would face cuts of around 1.8% per year"
ifs.org.uk/articles/fou...
ifs.org.uk/articles/fou...
Four big decisions for the 2025 Spending Review | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Spending Review 2025 will set detailed departmental budgets for most of this parliament. We examine the key choices facing the government.
ifs.org.uk
June 2, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Striking chart. "In a scenario where defence is increased to 3% of GDP, and DHSC gets 3.4% (around the long-run average), all other departments would face cuts of around 1.8% per year"
ifs.org.uk/articles/fou...
ifs.org.uk/articles/fou...
My latest piece co-authored with Dr Azriel Bermant on the future of UK-Israel relations.
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
UK and Israel Relations, Where Do We Go From Here?
Political support for the war in Gaza is at a nadir among Israel’s allies in the international community, with the UK looking for leverage to end the conflict.
www.rusi.org
May 30, 2025 at 3:12 PM
My latest piece co-authored with Dr Azriel Bermant on the future of UK-Israel relations.
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
I spoke to @mikerstephens.bsky.social about the terrible humanitarian crisis in #Gaza and the world’s shifting response.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
Starvation in Gaza, is the world finally responding?
Podcast Episode · Behind The Lines with Arthur Snell · 24/05/2025 · 54m
podcasts.apple.com
May 24, 2025 at 9:17 AM
I spoke to @mikerstephens.bsky.social about the terrible humanitarian crisis in #Gaza and the world’s shifting response.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...
I don't always agree with Jeremy Bowen on this conflict. But he is absolutely right. Patience has run out, and the last supplies of political goodwill for Israel are fast slipping away. Outside of a small group of right wing politicians and advocates support has gone.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Jeremy Bowen: Goodwill running out as UK, France and Canada demand Israel end Gaza offensive
France, the UK and Canada are among nations that have sharpened their criticism of Israel's ground offensive.
www.bbc.co.uk
May 20, 2025 at 8:56 AM
I don't always agree with Jeremy Bowen on this conflict. But he is absolutely right. Patience has run out, and the last supplies of political goodwill for Israel are fast slipping away. Outside of a small group of right wing politicians and advocates support has gone.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
Tory MP on party polling fourth: “Forget renewal. More like resuscitation.”
May 20, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Tory MP on party polling fourth: “Forget renewal. More like resuscitation.”
Reposted by Michael Stephens
Trump says he’ll drop the Syria sanctions, so what happens now? Me on The Warcast:
warontherocks.com/episode/warc...
@warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/episode/warc...
@warontherocks.bsky.social
Progress for Syria? - War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
May 16, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Trump says he’ll drop the Syria sanctions, so what happens now? Me on The Warcast:
warontherocks.com/episode/warc...
@warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/episode/warc...
@warontherocks.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael Stephens
“NATO member Turkey’s military is on a roll — just as Europe seems willing to overlook the latest democratic backsliding by its strongman president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan because it needs a well-armed ally to protect its south-eastern flank from Russian revanchism.”
Military briefing: How Turkey became vital to European security
Trump’s reset of US alliances and Russian threats cement Nato power’s role as ‘country condemned to strategic significance’
on.ft.com
May 14, 2025 at 10:31 AM
“NATO member Turkey’s military is on a roll — just as Europe seems willing to overlook the latest democratic backsliding by its strongman president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan because it needs a well-armed ally to protect its south-eastern flank from Russian revanchism.”
This is not ok...this isn't about the horrors of October 7, or going easy on Hamas (who continue to behave appallingly).
Israel's current Gaza policy is morally wrong, and is strategically highly questionable in its efficacy. It should be roundly condemned by all sensible and decent people.
Israel's current Gaza policy is morally wrong, and is strategically highly questionable in its efficacy. It should be roundly condemned by all sensible and decent people.
May 12, 2025 at 12:17 PM
This is not ok...this isn't about the horrors of October 7, or going easy on Hamas (who continue to behave appallingly).
Israel's current Gaza policy is morally wrong, and is strategically highly questionable in its efficacy. It should be roundly condemned by all sensible and decent people.
Israel's current Gaza policy is morally wrong, and is strategically highly questionable in its efficacy. It should be roundly condemned by all sensible and decent people.
Great to be at the National Liberal Club’s Defence and Security Circle Anzac Day breakfast, we heard a fascinating talk about online extremism while having a shot of rum!
April 25, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Great to be at the National Liberal Club’s Defence and Security Circle Anzac Day breakfast, we heard a fascinating talk about online extremism while having a shot of rum!
Reposted by Michael Stephens
COLUMN: How do you say "drill, baby, drill" in Mandarin?
Call it “zuan ba, bao bei, zuan ba."
China may not have a drilling slogan, but it just lifted oil production to an all-time high, surpassing a peak set 10 years ago.
My @opinion.bloomberg.com column: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Call it “zuan ba, bao bei, zuan ba."
China may not have a drilling slogan, but it just lifted oil production to an all-time high, surpassing a peak set 10 years ago.
My @opinion.bloomberg.com column: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
April 22, 2025 at 10:14 AM
COLUMN: How do you say "drill, baby, drill" in Mandarin?
Call it “zuan ba, bao bei, zuan ba."
China may not have a drilling slogan, but it just lifted oil production to an all-time high, surpassing a peak set 10 years ago.
My @opinion.bloomberg.com column: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Call it “zuan ba, bao bei, zuan ba."
China may not have a drilling slogan, but it just lifted oil production to an all-time high, surpassing a peak set 10 years ago.
My @opinion.bloomberg.com column: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
Steve Rosen: US force posture "made sense during the Cold War because of the economic value of Europe and Japan to the United States and the ability of the [US] to deploy its forces safely nearer to enemy forces...But the world has changed significantly" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 28, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Steve Rosen: US force posture "made sense during the Cold War because of the economic value of Europe and Japan to the United States and the ability of the [US] to deploy its forces safely nearer to enemy forces...But the world has changed significantly" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
🎙Will the transatlantic relationship endure? In the latest Global Security Briefing episode, with special guest Dr Liana Fix, we explore the future of US policy toward European security amidst growing global security challenges, shifting US priorities, and Europe's pursuit of strategic autonomy.
Episode 97: The Future of Transatlantic Security
How have the initial weeks of President Trump's second term of office impacted the transatlantic relationship, and will it survive his administration?
rusi.org
March 26, 2025 at 3:46 PM
🎙Will the transatlantic relationship endure? In the latest Global Security Briefing episode, with special guest Dr Liana Fix, we explore the future of US policy toward European security amidst growing global security challenges, shifting US priorities, and Europe's pursuit of strategic autonomy.
Reposted by Michael Stephens
EXC: EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund - unless they sign new defence pacts with bloc
Move has sparked anger in UK defence sector and disappointment in UK govt, though officials insist it was anticipated
via @henryjfoy.ft.com & me
www.ft.com/content/eb9e...
Move has sparked anger in UK defence sector and disappointment in UK govt, though officials insist it was anticipated
via @henryjfoy.ft.com & me
www.ft.com/content/eb9e...
EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund
Victory for France-backed ‘Buy European’ approach to defence spending
www.ft.com
March 19, 2025 at 2:33 PM
EXC: EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund - unless they sign new defence pacts with bloc
Move has sparked anger in UK defence sector and disappointment in UK govt, though officials insist it was anticipated
via @henryjfoy.ft.com & me
www.ft.com/content/eb9e...
Move has sparked anger in UK defence sector and disappointment in UK govt, though officials insist it was anticipated
via @henryjfoy.ft.com & me
www.ft.com/content/eb9e...
Reposted by Michael Stephens
This is a critical year for Iran’s nuclear programme. Without an off-ramp, Iran could weaponize its nuclear programme — or have its nuclear facilities attacked.
The US and Iran are on the road to escalation. Europe can and should create an off-ramp
The E3 and Tehran have no better option than re-engaging. Failing to do so risks movement towards a weaponized nuclear programme, military escalation, or both.
www.chathamhouse.org
March 14, 2025 at 12:00 PM
This is a critical year for Iran’s nuclear programme. Without an off-ramp, Iran could weaponize its nuclear programme — or have its nuclear facilities attacked.
Reposted by Michael Stephens
🧵 Where are we headed in Ukraine/Europe? A few scenarios, off the top of my head.
February 26, 2025 at 11:24 AM
🧵 Where are we headed in Ukraine/Europe? A few scenarios, off the top of my head.