Michael Roberts
@mikejrob.bsky.social
An economist who studies agriculture, climate change, energy, and sometimes other environmental and resource issues.
Blog: https://grainsgigawatts.substack.com
Blog: https://grainsgigawatts.substack.com
What's the best ownership structure for network monopolies like utilities? (a🧵)
The three most, prevalent:
(1) investor owned utilities,regulated by state public utility commissions;
(2) municipalities; and
(3) cooperatives, customer owned and regulated with a lighter touch.
The three most, prevalent:
(1) investor owned utilities,regulated by state public utility commissions;
(2) municipalities; and
(3) cooperatives, customer owned and regulated with a lighter touch.
February 1, 2026 at 10:03 PM
What's the best ownership structure for network monopolies like utilities? (a🧵)
The three most, prevalent:
(1) investor owned utilities,regulated by state public utility commissions;
(2) municipalities; and
(3) cooperatives, customer owned and regulated with a lighter touch.
The three most, prevalent:
(1) investor owned utilities,regulated by state public utility commissions;
(2) municipalities; and
(3) cooperatives, customer owned and regulated with a lighter touch.
An excellent chart with a depressing message.
H/T @hannahritchie.bsky.social
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
H/T @hannahritchie.bsky.social
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
January 7, 2026 at 7:30 AM
An excellent chart with a depressing message.
H/T @hannahritchie.bsky.social
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
H/T @hannahritchie.bsky.social
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
Oof. The Fed doesn’t control the federal deficit. At all.
Always striking how even very smart, influential people get basic things about science and economics wrong.
Always striking how even very smart, influential people get basic things about science and economics wrong.
I don’t understand why no one in congress has proposed amending The Federal Reserve act to include the following addition among the mandates
“Reducing the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to sustainable levels.”
Keep inflation and employment the same , just add to the equation
#econsky
“Reducing the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to sustainable levels.”
Keep inflation and employment the same , just add to the equation
#econsky
December 30, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Oof. The Fed doesn’t control the federal deficit. At all.
Always striking how even very smart, influential people get basic things about science and economics wrong.
Always striking how even very smart, influential people get basic things about science and economics wrong.
The Obscure Power Sector Dictionary
Capacity market: a way to protect the fossil fuel industry from competition while transferring data center electricity costs to residential and smaller commercial customers.
Energy only market: a fair, efficient, often vilified alternative to capacity markets
Capacity market: a way to protect the fossil fuel industry from competition while transferring data center electricity costs to residential and smaller commercial customers.
Energy only market: a fair, efficient, often vilified alternative to capacity markets
December 16, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The Obscure Power Sector Dictionary
Capacity market: a way to protect the fossil fuel industry from competition while transferring data center electricity costs to residential and smaller commercial customers.
Energy only market: a fair, efficient, often vilified alternative to capacity markets
Capacity market: a way to protect the fossil fuel industry from competition while transferring data center electricity costs to residential and smaller commercial customers.
Energy only market: a fair, efficient, often vilified alternative to capacity markets
Let's all agree to use Calibri font for all documents next three years.
December 12, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Let's all agree to use Calibri font for all documents next three years.
Proposition:
The quality of research papers is inversely related to the frequency of acronyms.
The quality of research papers is inversely related to the frequency of acronyms.
December 9, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Proposition:
The quality of research papers is inversely related to the frequency of acronyms.
The quality of research papers is inversely related to the frequency of acronyms.
"The clearest sign that we are not actually in a bubble is the fact that everyone is talking about a bubble.”
I heard this a lot during the .com & real estate bubbles, too.
And the profit model in a highly competitive environment?
🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/t...
I heard this a lot during the .com & real estate bubbles, too.
And the profit model in a highly competitive environment?
🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/t...
Why the A.I. Boom Is Unlike the Dot-Com Boom
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:53 PM
"The clearest sign that we are not actually in a bubble is the fact that everyone is talking about a bubble.”
I heard this a lot during the .com & real estate bubbles, too.
And the profit model in a highly competitive environment?
🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/t...
I heard this a lot during the .com & real estate bubbles, too.
And the profit model in a highly competitive environment?
🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/t...
Reposted by Michael Roberts
A *lot* of folks in our communities say they feel like the air is better. Some people reply saying that their feeling is psychosomatic, but I’m not sure that’s the case.
In addition to all of the other benefits already reported about NYC congestion pricing, "In the first six months of the program, air pollution – in the form of particulate matter 2.5 micrometers and smaller – dropped by 22% in the Congestion Relief Zone (CRZ)"
news.cornell.edu/stories/2025...
news.cornell.edu/stories/2025...
Congestion pricing improved air quality in NYC and suburbs | Cornell Chronicle
Cornell researchers tallied the environmental benefits of New York City’s congestion pricing program and found air pollution dropped by 22% in Manhattan, with additional declines across the city’s fiv...
news.cornell.edu
December 9, 2025 at 5:39 AM
A *lot* of folks in our communities say they feel like the air is better. Some people reply saying that their feeling is psychosomatic, but I’m not sure that’s the case.
Anyone know why this Excess CAPE is so different from mine? For example, it says 1.65% today while mine is 0.59%.
The CAPE is ~40 today and 10-year real rate is 1.91%.
1/40 - 0.0191 =0.0059
🤷
en.macromicro.me/charts/27100...
The CAPE is ~40 today and 10-year real rate is 1.91%.
1/40 - 0.0191 =0.0059
🤷
en.macromicro.me/charts/27100...
December 9, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Anyone know why this Excess CAPE is so different from mine? For example, it says 1.65% today while mine is 0.59%.
The CAPE is ~40 today and 10-year real rate is 1.91%.
1/40 - 0.0191 =0.0059
🤷
en.macromicro.me/charts/27100...
The CAPE is ~40 today and 10-year real rate is 1.91%.
1/40 - 0.0191 =0.0059
🤷
en.macromicro.me/charts/27100...
The WSJ doth try too hard to explain why this isn't a bubble.
Yes, AI may change society and economy a lot.
But it also looks *very* competitive. And likely more competitive in the future. So, hard to see how profits could be that large. Moreover, experts gains will likely be modest going forward.
Yes, AI may change society and economy a lot.
But it also looks *very* competitive. And likely more competitive in the future. So, hard to see how profits could be that large. Moreover, experts gains will likely be modest going forward.
December 9, 2025 at 3:57 AM
The WSJ doth try too hard to explain why this isn't a bubble.
Yes, AI may change society and economy a lot.
But it also looks *very* competitive. And likely more competitive in the future. So, hard to see how profits could be that large. Moreover, experts gains will likely be modest going forward.
Yes, AI may change society and economy a lot.
But it also looks *very* competitive. And likely more competitive in the future. So, hard to see how profits could be that large. Moreover, experts gains will likely be modest going forward.
The best Thanksgiving cartoon I’ve ever seen. (Even if that wasn’t the intent)
![Comic. Panels up to the 10-year point are grayed out. New panels since the Ten Years comic, which chronicles the first ten years of PERSON 1's journey with cancer: (1) [two people in bed] PERSON 1 (woman): One more chapter? PERSON 2 (man): Don’t we both have to get up early? PERSON 1: Nnnnnggggh PERSON 2: Sure, good point. (2) [many people wearing masks, walking while looking at graphs on their phones] (3) [birds landing on people] PERSON 2 in beanie and scarf: Hah! They like *my* seeds best. PERSON 1 in scarf holding phone with a bird sitting on it: Wait, how do I take a picture of this one? (4) [two people rowing boats with tree landscape] (5) [Person 1 carries overflowing stack of things to Person 2 in bed] PERSON 1: I brought you honey lemon tea, more pillows, a cinnamon roll, Tylenol, another blanket, a– PERSON 2: It was just Appendicitis, I’m really– PERSON 1: *It is my turn to take care of you and I am going to do it right!* (6) [Two people in car] (7) [still in car) PERSON 1: Oh my god. PERSON 2: Oh my god. (8) [car driving] PERSON 1: Pull over! PERSON 2: I am! (9) [both people get out of car] (10) [Large colored panel of aurora borealis over water with both people looking on] (11) [Person 1 sits against tree while Person 2 lies on the ground] PERSON 1: Fifteen years. No sign of the cancer. (12) I *am* having some weird symptoms. Joint pain. Fatigue. I think I’m losing my close-up vision. PERSON 2: Yeah. Me too. (13) PERSON 2: I think we’re getting old. (14) PERSON 1: I guess that’s okay. PERSON 2: It’s all I wanted.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreihwhjblp5lyiwp63ouar7ocfea7evmckytoeo7rkfuoo4gw5rnrra@jpeg)
November 27, 2025 at 6:54 AM
The best Thanksgiving cartoon I’ve ever seen. (Even if that wasn’t the intent)
Reposted by Michael Roberts
📢 Just accepted in #JAERE 📢 is now posted at @aereorg.bsky.social!
📍 Follow @aereorg.bsky.social to stay updated on all things REEP and JAERE.
#EconSky 📈📉
📍 Follow @aereorg.bsky.social to stay updated on all things REEP and JAERE.
#EconSky 📈📉
November 27, 2025 at 5:03 AM
📢 Just accepted in #JAERE 📢 is now posted at @aereorg.bsky.social!
📍 Follow @aereorg.bsky.social to stay updated on all things REEP and JAERE.
#EconSky 📈📉
📍 Follow @aereorg.bsky.social to stay updated on all things REEP and JAERE.
#EconSky 📈📉
Scary stuff. But interesting to take stock of how our institutions, including SCOTUS, have failed to live up to founding principles in the past. We corrected course then; hopefully we will this time, too. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/o...
Opinion | Nobody Should Go to Jail for a Harmless Meme
www.nytimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Scary stuff. But interesting to take stock of how our institutions, including SCOTUS, have failed to live up to founding principles in the past. We corrected course then; hopefully we will this time, too. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/o...
Reposted by Michael Roberts
"We're pro-affordability, but we're going to raise tariffs on you. We're pro-affordability, but we're going to undermine the Fed, which is going to potentially cause inflation. We're pro-affordability, but... we're going to rip the American health insurance system up."
November 25, 2025 at 8:31 PM
"We're pro-affordability, but we're going to raise tariffs on you. We're pro-affordability, but we're going to undermine the Fed, which is going to potentially cause inflation. We're pro-affordability, but... we're going to rip the American health insurance system up."
Reposted by Michael Roberts
"The end of progress against extreme poverty?"
We have to work so that current trends are not good predictors of the future.
Thanks: @maxroser.bsky.social @ourworldindata.org
ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
We have to work so that current trends are not good predictors of the future.
Thanks: @maxroser.bsky.social @ourworldindata.org
ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
November 22, 2025 at 6:55 PM
"The end of progress against extreme poverty?"
We have to work so that current trends are not good predictors of the future.
Thanks: @maxroser.bsky.social @ourworldindata.org
ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
We have to work so that current trends are not good predictors of the future.
Thanks: @maxroser.bsky.social @ourworldindata.org
ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
'DOGE’s biggest “achievement” was shutting down the U.S. Agency for International Development. And the dismantling of USAID has left a legacy of death. According to one recent study, closing the agency “has already caused the deaths of six hundred thousand people, two-thirds of them children.” '
November 25, 2025 at 8:34 PM
'DOGE’s biggest “achievement” was shutting down the U.S. Agency for International Development. And the dismantling of USAID has left a legacy of death. According to one recent study, closing the agency “has already caused the deaths of six hundred thousand people, two-thirds of them children.” '
Global solar growth is up 64% in the first half of 2025 compared with 2024. Seems like we're at peak emissions in the electricity sector, with new solar+wind > demand growth.
Trumpies will slow it a little in the US, but that hardly matters globally.
ember-energy.org/latest-updat...
Trumpies will slow it a little in the US, but that hardly matters globally.
ember-energy.org/latest-updat...
Global solar installations surge 64% in first half of 2025 | Ember
ember-energy.org
November 24, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Global solar growth is up 64% in the first half of 2025 compared with 2024. Seems like we're at peak emissions in the electricity sector, with new solar+wind > demand growth.
Trumpies will slow it a little in the US, but that hardly matters globally.
ember-energy.org/latest-updat...
Trumpies will slow it a little in the US, but that hardly matters globally.
ember-energy.org/latest-updat...
Reposted by Michael Roberts
Actual causes of death in the US and media coverage of same.
And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.
@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.
@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
November 16, 2025 at 5:26 AM
Actual causes of death in the US and media coverage of same.
And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.
@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.
@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
Our (formerly) best media selling out to the oligarchs--The NYT and Washington Post among them.
The NYT is to media what Harvard is to academia. When they cave, the whole world should worry.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-wi...
The NYT is to media what Harvard is to academia. When they cave, the whole world should worry.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-wi...
Talking With Margaret Sullivan
The state of the media in Trump Two Year One
paulkrugman.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Our (formerly) best media selling out to the oligarchs--The NYT and Washington Post among them.
The NYT is to media what Harvard is to academia. When they cave, the whole world should worry.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-wi...
The NYT is to media what Harvard is to academia. When they cave, the whole world should worry.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-wi...
Wow:
"The turnout rate of voters age 18 to 29 rose to 41.3 percent this year from 11.1 percent in the 2021 election for mayor. The share of total turnout composed of 18-to-29-year-olds grew to 16.6 percent from 8.9 percent four years ago"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/o...
"The turnout rate of voters age 18 to 29 rose to 41.3 percent this year from 11.1 percent in the 2021 election for mayor. The share of total turnout composed of 18-to-29-year-olds grew to 16.6 percent from 8.9 percent four years ago"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/o...
Opinion | Steve Bannon Thinks Zohran Mamdani Is a Genius. It’s Not a Feint.
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Wow:
"The turnout rate of voters age 18 to 29 rose to 41.3 percent this year from 11.1 percent in the 2021 election for mayor. The share of total turnout composed of 18-to-29-year-olds grew to 16.6 percent from 8.9 percent four years ago"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/o...
"The turnout rate of voters age 18 to 29 rose to 41.3 percent this year from 11.1 percent in the 2021 election for mayor. The share of total turnout composed of 18-to-29-year-olds grew to 16.6 percent from 8.9 percent four years ago"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/o...
Great Freakonomics episode on how the 1910 Flexner Report reshaped U.S. medical training — and its lasting influence.
🎧 freakonomics.com/podcast/the-...
Also: new NBER paper by Karen Clay et al. on this history → www.nber.org/papers/w33937
Does this history contribute to today's doctor shortage?
🎧 freakonomics.com/podcast/the-...
Also: new NBER paper by Karen Clay et al. on this history → www.nber.org/papers/w33937
Does this history contribute to today's doctor shortage?
freakonomics.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Great Freakonomics episode on how the 1910 Flexner Report reshaped U.S. medical training — and its lasting influence.
🎧 freakonomics.com/podcast/the-...
Also: new NBER paper by Karen Clay et al. on this history → www.nber.org/papers/w33937
Does this history contribute to today's doctor shortage?
🎧 freakonomics.com/podcast/the-...
Also: new NBER paper by Karen Clay et al. on this history → www.nber.org/papers/w33937
Does this history contribute to today's doctor shortage?
Quite a reversal on the betting odds of a democratic house in 2026.
electionbettingodds.com/House-Contro...
electionbettingodds.com/House-Contro...
November 5, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Quite a reversal on the betting odds of a democratic house in 2026.
electionbettingodds.com/House-Contro...
electionbettingodds.com/House-Contro...
When my "dark" traits get the better of me, I ✔️the state of science @statmodeling.bsky.social
"as long as this sort of research gets shoved into the world’s most prestigious scientific journals ... [and] gets uncritical press coverage, we’ll keep seeing more of it."
tinyurl.com/4f2yhwtx
Oh well
"as long as this sort of research gets shoved into the world’s most prestigious scientific journals ... [and] gets uncritical press coverage, we’ll keep seeing more of it."
tinyurl.com/4f2yhwtx
Oh well
Aversive statistical methods explain differences in “dark” publication in PNAS across subject areas | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
tinyurl.com
October 22, 2025 at 8:57 PM
When my "dark" traits get the better of me, I ✔️the state of science @statmodeling.bsky.social
"as long as this sort of research gets shoved into the world’s most prestigious scientific journals ... [and] gets uncritical press coverage, we’ll keep seeing more of it."
tinyurl.com/4f2yhwtx
Oh well
"as long as this sort of research gets shoved into the world’s most prestigious scientific journals ... [and] gets uncritical press coverage, we’ll keep seeing more of it."
tinyurl.com/4f2yhwtx
Oh well
Today, Russia has a population roughly similar to that of the United States in the 1940s.
Russia has lost roughly twice as many soldiers in its invasion of Ukraine as the United States did in World War II.
www.economist.com/interactive/...
Russia has lost roughly twice as many soldiers in its invasion of Ukraine as the United States did in World War II.
www.economist.com/interactive/...
Russia's latest big Ukraine offensive gains next to nothing, again
Hundreds of thousands of Vladimir Putin's troops are losing their lives for barely any land
www.economist.com
October 21, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Today, Russia has a population roughly similar to that of the United States in the 1940s.
Russia has lost roughly twice as many soldiers in its invasion of Ukraine as the United States did in World War II.
www.economist.com/interactive/...
Russia has lost roughly twice as many soldiers in its invasion of Ukraine as the United States did in World War II.
www.economist.com/interactive/...
It took 15 years for the Nasdaq to return to .com peak after the bubble burst. Another ~10.5 years to grow 4.5 X.
But this time is different, right?
...Right?
But this time is different, right?
...Right?
October 9, 2025 at 7:24 AM
It took 15 years for the Nasdaq to return to .com peak after the bubble burst. Another ~10.5 years to grow 4.5 X.
But this time is different, right?
...Right?
But this time is different, right?
...Right?